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Forums => Baccarat Forum => Topic started by: soxfan on May 26, 2017, 07:49:24 PM

Title: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on May 26, 2017, 07:49:24 PM
I'm gonna pony up all of the w/l cluster result for ALL 30 shoe I buck up against this coming week, so cats can see how my style plays out. And yes, I do have some losing week so I will pony up the result good, bad or ugly without picking cherry, hey hey.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: Babu on May 26, 2017, 08:17:49 PM
Quote from: soxfan on May 26, 2017, 07:49:24 PM
I'm gonna pony up all of the w/l cluster result for ALL 30 shoe I buck up against this coming week, so cats can see how my style plays out. And yes, I do have some losing week so I will pony up the result good, bad or ugly without picking cherry, hey hey.

If you can manage to capture two consecutive wins for each run, I would say this will work well.  I personally can't do it. 

I'm NOT saying you can't just because I couldn't or most people couldn't.  Good luck on the weekend. 
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on May 26, 2017, 08:20:40 PM
Quote from: Babu on May 26, 2017, 08:17:49 PM
If you can manage to capture two consecutive wins for each run, I would say this will work well.  I personally can't do it. 

I'm NOT saying you can't just because I couldn't or most people couldn't.  Good luck on the weekend.

In Beat the Casino book the Frank Barstow talk about an old timer who made a good living for 30 year just using the parlay style at the dice table, hey hey.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: goez on May 28, 2017, 07:27:12 PM
Eagerly waiting for your reports, Soxfan.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on May 30, 2017, 02:11:33 AM
Well, cats, my week got off to the good start so, here it is, hey hey.

Session One

shoe 1: WWLWWLWWWWWLLLWLWLWWW +13 units gross profits

session total: +13 units gross profits
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: goez on May 30, 2017, 03:59:29 AM
A very impressive W/L clusters, pity did not come with shoes data and bet selections.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: ozon on May 30, 2017, 03:35:30 PM
Your bet selection must be really special, I tried your MM with very different methods of bet selection and I've always been on the minus in the longrun
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on June 01, 2017, 12:43:23 AM
Well, I'm a coupla days behind in my report so gonna pony up for you cats. The old adage is true, some day you get the bear and some day the bear gets you. And, I got clipped in my second session of this week, hey hey.

Session Two


early shoe: WLLWLWWLWLLLWLWLWWWLLLLLLLWLLWLLLL -96 unit CLIPPED!!!!



late shoe: WWWWLLLWWWWWWLWWWLLWWWWLWWWLLLLLWWWLLLWWLWWL +25 units gross profits



session total: -71 unit
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 01, 2017, 01:59:37 AM
Hi soxfan!
I do not know about your bet selection criteria, but in the 12 shoes you presented so far if you would have wagered W after W just one time, stopping to bet if after a single W a L came, you would have reached a +6 profit just by flat betting before tax.

Of course this won't be the case everytime as it's almost impossible to win by flat betting alone.

No matter which is the strategy involved, the point is to try to reduce the variance on both W and L sides.

as.

 




   
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: 8OR9 on June 01, 2017, 02:09:29 AM
The problem with betting a W after a W and stopping when an L appears is that the
WLWLWLWL    sequence is very common regardless of the method you use.......also
the WLLWLLWLLWLL is unfortunately also very common.

Np free lunch in baccarat!
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 01, 2017, 02:51:06 AM
Quote from: 8OR9 on June 01, 2017, 02:09:29 AM
The problem with betting a W after a W and stopping when an L appears is that the
WLWLWLWL    sequence is very common regardless of the method you use.......also
the WLLWLLWLLWLL is unfortunately also very common.

Np free lunch in baccarat!

You are perfectly right.

Of course in the same scenario you depicted trying to get two wins in a row would be an economical disaster.

Let's make a further step.

That is betting toward WW after a W only after a given WW.. series has already formed. 
Of course in a perfect 50/50 game we'll get no hints about those WW series...they will be perfectly symmetrically placed, thus WL... patterns will be equal to WW....patterns.
Wait. if we manage to wager B side, we know that itlr WW>WL by any means.
But what are the best situations to try to get those WW patterns? Or, and it's the same, to get WLW or WLLW situations?

as.



Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on June 02, 2017, 01:25:19 AM
Well cats. still grindin it out, hey hey.

Session Three

shoe 1: WLWLWWWLWLWLWWWLWWLLLLLWWWLWLWLLLWWWWWWWLLWLL +18units gross profits

shoe 2: WWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWLWWWWWLLWWWLLWW +16 units gross profits


session total: 34 units gross profits
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: brokerny on June 02, 2017, 09:22:15 PM
Sox, 1 unit = $100?
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on June 03, 2017, 12:44:10 AM
Quote from: brokerny on June 02, 2017, 09:22:15 PM
Sox, 1 unit = $100?

My base unit is 25$, hey hey.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: Jimske on June 03, 2017, 12:59:48 PM
I got no reason to post anymore but I do look in on occasion to see if anything catches my interest.  Usually not.  But since I've fooled with this 12 step and have played it I thought I'd opine.

The problem is the WR of 56%.  Now soxfan a pretty smart guy.  If he could get even close to such a win rate he would have realized a long time ago that flat bet would increase his $ and reduce his risk.  With the posted w/l registry flat bet $75.00 would suffice to increase his profits.  But he still uses the 12 step so one must assume that the W/R far less than this sample.  And therein lies the fly in the pie.

(Note: that any number of progressions would gain a profit with this w/l registry.)

Let's assume that itlr we accomplish a 50% registry.  That means the next 18 shoes would give us a 44% WR!  Now this is not say that one cannot achieve a win in a shoe with a 44% (or less) w/l registry.  In shoe 16 there was only a 42% WR but still won 13 units.  In shoe 9 where he got "clipped" the WR was 50%!  Nevertheless, the % w/l registry is going to correlate to the success or failure of this progression.

Stay with me here since I did run quite a lot of shoes using the 12 step and determined that a 90% + shoe WR is needed to gain a profit.  In the sample posted soxfan achieves a 95% shoe WR.  If one extrapolates to the above 44% w/l registry one comes up with a 78% shoe win rate.  In all the bet selections I tried (Pairs, XXYY, XY, SFC) I could only achieve an 80% shoe win rate.  IOW, OUCH!  The closer you get to the expected WR of 50% the greater chance of NOT achieving the 90%+ shoe WR.

If, in his sessions he would have lost just two more parlays his profit wiped and his shoe WR (3/18=84) 84%.  You need 90% shoe WR for this to work!

Conclusion: soxfan bet selection highly subjective and this sample is unusually better than normal.  Normally, "it's a grind baby"
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: ice789 on June 03, 2017, 02:36:16 PM
mm only..... no win long run

with bet selection ???
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: brokerny on June 03, 2017, 05:28:26 PM
sox, 89 gross profit is some good profit. was that done in one trip to the casino?
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: ice789 on June 03, 2017, 06:53:56 PM
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#toc-Simulations

test test for long run
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on June 04, 2017, 01:20:26 AM
Good to see the Jimske makin the scene with some serious baccarats talks. My progression is actually the 13 steps, and I get clipped for 5 shoes outta every hundred. So, 95% of shoe I buck up against make profits for me. I could profit well and regular just capturing 10 unit on winning shoe and I do a sight better than that, hey hey.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: 8OR9 on June 04, 2017, 05:14:31 PM
This method is OK if you are only betting $ 5 a hand ...but you had losses of 46 units and 95 units....and those losses could have occurred in the first live shoe you play, not after playing 10 or 15 profitable shoes.

So if you are betting $ 100 a hand, and you lose $ 4,500 ( 45 units) or $ 9,600 ( 96 units ) in your first shoe, would you have the bankroll, and more importantly, the psychological willpower, to continue playing the betting method and money management ? ........easy to say yes when you are on a forum .......but it's a different story when you see your own $9,600 flushed down the toilet and into the dealer's tray.
Title: Re: A Week in the Life
Post by: soxfan on June 05, 2017, 02:37:15 AM
Well, cats here is the last installment and what has been a very typical week and profits enough to feed the bulldog, hey hey.

Session Five

shoe 1: LLWLWLLWLWWWLWWLWWWLWLLLWWLWLLLWLLLLWLW +13 units gross profits


session total: +13 units gross profits