A person needs tools to sit down and play baccarat. A buy in and physical presence at a casino, is not enough to gain any type of advantage. The same as a mechanic in an automotive repair shop. He has tools meaning; wrenches, screwdrivers, ratchets and sockets, hammers and numerous other devices such as torque wrenches and speciality equipment. But he also needs knowledge, experience and assistance. Without it all, his performance will not be as good as those that have it. Merely turning a wrench without any type of guidance or knowledge, for example in replacing a part of how tight and what poundage of torque is required for the bolts that hold on certain parts, will sacrifice the work he just performed, etc. Get the picture?
Three things I would like to discuss this morning in relation to the player?s frame-of-mind and decision-making process at the table. Allocation, Decision making too late and the so-called psychological cushion others are talking about on various websites that they claim is so valuable.
Allocation. To me allocation is extremely important. Allocation is the amount you are willing to risk gaining a win or suffering with a loss. Either way, there will be a result. Results effect how your subsequent wagering process will be affected. Many say, that they sit there without regards to anything or any event and they withdraw themselves from the emotional aspect of the game. Bull stuff with capitals!! I cannot believe that or feed into that. While writing that sounds ideal and pretty good, but I do not think it applies well and is carried out in strict force consistently.
My method of allocation is dependent upon what my buy in is, not my wins or my losses. Not the amount I am attempting to recoup or anything that happened in other sessions, days, weeks, months or years prior. It is strictly limited to the instant time I am wagering. I work like this. Say I have $1,000.00 in front of me from my buy in. I might wager $75.00 to $150.00 on my first wager. Why? Because in my mind and experience, I already know that if I lose 6 or 7 wagers straight, it is not my day at the tables. Second, my buy in is risk and not a psychological cushion that governs my stop loss with a known part of it never going to be played. All that does is stress the player out because he has less funds available to him and he recalculates subconsciously anyway, confusing him and giving him a false hope. More on that later.
I want my wins to add up and I want more than anything to wager and have the casinos money rather than my risk capital. But my mind stays clear and is set to lose my buy in. The same as a trip. XYZ for gas, XYZ for food, XYZ for motels, XYZ for entertainment, XYZ for shopping, XYZ for anything I require and want and a bit extra. Same at the casino, no different. Why bring $500.00 if you are going to say you can only spend $200.00. If that is the case, bring the $200.00 and that is it. Clear and concise, rather than the fudging on the math and attempt to manipulate your psychological frame of mind. IT DOES NOT WORK IN MOST EVERYONES CASE! Stop thinking a stop loss on your buy-in will assit you, it does not, IMO.
So, I wager $125.00 and lose. I wager another $125.00 and win. Again, the allocation question must come to mind before decision making takes place as far as what to wager on, progression, flat betting, wait it out, etc. What are you going to do with that $125.00 won? Myself, I would like to take $75.00 and put it in my buy in and take the other $50.00 and put it in my pocket. Knowing my skim off the win will go towards a smaller stash starting in my pocket before I get to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method I love so much. But the beginning of play is crucial to me because of the emotional aspect and staying away from false-positives. I want $400.00 or so in my pocket that has nothing to do with my buy in or play. I do not want to get over confident or have any kind of crutch that might alter my way of thinking. Sitting with more chips in front of me that I won or cannot spend, is dangerous, my mind would tend to focus on that, rather than the game itself. Then I would turn into protecting and abiding by what I have to do rather than what I should do.
False-Positives will hurt you and hurt you with your decision making ability you have to have.
Say my next wager was $200.00 and I lost. Fine, move on. Say my following wager was $150.00 and I won. I would put it all in my buy in. Say my next wager was $300.00 and I won. I would take $125.00 and add it to my pocket and put the $175.00 win and the bet back in my buy in stack. I would continue in whatever consistency I was wagering and attempt to get around 50% of my original buy in, back in my pocket and a bit more added to my stack in front of me. Then I would move into some type of true positive progression of 1-3-2-6 or 1-1-3-6-12, etc. I need to be playing with the casino?s money for a true clear mind and a chance to double, triple, 10-fold or 40-fold my buy in. Yes, some buy ins will be totally lost, but they are fractions of my bank roll and at least for the past minimum of 10 years, I have not lost my bank roll without replenishing it from a subsequent win later after the loss, maybe not the subsquent session or two or even three, but before the depleation of my bank roll. My buy in is an allocation of my bank roll, not my bank roll at risk for each session.
What works for me, may not in anyway work for you. But rather than sit there and claim you have a 10 unit buy in and you will wager only until you lose 3 or 4 units is not the way I play or believe anyone can prosper at this game. I tend more to double or triple a buy in and every so often pounce on it, which will allow me to realize a 20-50 times buy in win. I could never do that with a set win stop and loss stop. I have tried and I already discovered that years ago back in Atlantic City and Eastern Connecticut over hundreds and hundreds of trips.
The same with my 1/3rd Money Management Method, it is an allocation. Say I just won $2,000.00. $700.00 would go to my buy in stack, $700.00 in my pocket for absolute cash out and not going back towards gambling ever, and the other $600.00 maybe in reserve for a decision to be made if I lose quickly thereafter?
To me, that is why allocation is very important and necessary. Simply stacking the wins up in front of you will not be the answer, I promise you. Simply putting them in your pocket, likewise, will not be the answer as well. You have no satisfaction if you do the latter. There is no accountability and no plan, you simply have the chips and you will either keep attempting longer and larger sessions with the false-positive that you will either win more or recoup everything. That is what will happen.
Decision making too late. I found this to be one of the most harmful things to a person sitting at the table playing. You will become emotional inside and you will have your frame of mind altered. Do not jump on a run when it is 5 or 7 repeated wins already out there. Especially if you were on the other side. More times than not, that run will end and that is the point your emotions will hurt and hurt you tremendously. The other night when I had the shoe started out of the gate with the 7 Players and one Banker, One Player, One Banker and then 12 straight Players, is a perfect example. The start of a shoe, most were on the Banker. Player won. They stayed on the Banker and some doubled up or tripled up. Then Player again. Then the war was on. After like 5 or 6 Players, some switched sides and it was short lived, the new loss that they never really wanted to wager on and strictly looking to recoup their money, fails them and their insides are now upside down. Then when the 12 run Players came, war was on big time.
A $200.00 beginning wager on that 12 Player streak that was a small part of the win money from the 7 Player streak a few hands before, gives the person the power to overpower the shoe. Not change the shoe, just overpower it. There is a difference and a very large difference. Call it hocus pokus, it is all good. I am talking about reality here, not fantasy, dreams or theory.
But again, allocation will come into play, not a straight continued positive progression, unless you are talking about a 1-1-3 and then stop. Yes, a win but a grind. I do not play that way when it is a give me easy money time. I rather pounce on it with all win money and keep winning and win large and then go back to my same level and plateau prior to the win, once the win stops. If I have a 4 or 8 unit win stop, I will never have realized the wins I had playing this game.
Decision making effects everything in your continued wagers. Be careful, you cannot remove yourself from the game in most situations. If you do, you will be affected without being able to realize the larger wins when the opportunity is there and needs to be taken advantage of. This has the same to do with following other players that are winning, wagering against those other players that are losing, telling yourself anything must happen because of something that already happened or did not happen. All those things. The highest majority of all of those situations will be too late, sure there might be the false positive ones that would encourage you to continue doing those type of things, but all they do is add to your losses, confusion and misalignment with the game itself.
Align yourself with the game, with the shoe and with your knowledge. There is a time and place to align yourself with other players or outside influences, but not every hand or with any consistency.
The so-called psychological cushion. Please take another look at that one. If you are a player that believes this hype, you are gullible. There is no real reason to bring $400 or $500 if you are saying you can only lose or will limit yourself to a $100 or $200 loss. You will not do it, period. If so, bring only the $100 or $200 or whatever number the loss figure can be, that you are willing to lose. The extra amount on the table will only influence you and give you false positives and alter your mind as I have already mentioned here. I do not care what the figures are. IMO, you must have a buy in that is a portion of your bank roll and that buy in is strictly risk capital being allocated. If you are trying for sizable wins rather than a grind everyday method so many swear by (of course without proof, or any other viable showing) you need a bank roll of approximately 20 times your buy-in to have the positive chance for you to employ some kind of money management method such as mine. Once you do, you will be on the way to profitable sessions when they present themselves. But, key is, maintaining your level and plateau with something similar to my 1/3rd method of hold.
You must know what your Level & Plateau of play really is. Once you have figured that out, you can attempt to stay conscious of that and keep yourself on track while consciously employing a money management method that will certainly work in your favor. Without just that, you are at a disadvantage.
If you blow through your bank roll and never got to replenish it with wins from your allocated playing results, something is really wrong with your wagering, parlays, money management method and/or your wagering beliefs and how long or how much you play the game.
Summation. The power and the wholehearted beliefs in the positive results, a great money management method that will allow you to be a better player rather than the longer and longer and larger and larger mentality that will only add to the casino?s bottom line and allow them to legally take your money with a smile.
Hell, guys let me sum it all up for you. Here. My host at one of the local casinos in my region gives me free hotel rooms, free food, free comps at the gift shop, free promo chips and free food court comps for just about anything I want. They are in proportion to my play with a bit of discretion of course by either the host or the senior floor person on duty. But those free things, comps, are an allocation of my play, not my wins or my losses. Yes, large wins and large losses are guidelines for those personnel to go outside of their normal computer-generated comp guidelines which is something like 4 hours of play, at any certain level of wagering, divided by their game hold ratio, will generate XYZ $ of comp. But that is also an allocation as to your play. Playing is the same as being rated, the bottom line is, "Let's see what happens".
Back to my coffee, notes, and opening a package of Twinkies. Later.
Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
Surely they are worth to restrict the losing amount up to the math expected value or, at best, to reduce the HE.
And 99.9% of bac players will lose a lot more.
Anyway good points we shouldn't forget when playing this silly game.
as.
You are correct.
But my point is, when you win---you are able to win more safely.
When you lose, you restrict yourself to the buy in only.
Nothing to do with the win a few, lose a few, win a couple, lose a couple, win and lose repeatedly and maybe break even or lose. Or win and give it all back.
A few large wins are just as easy to get as a few small ones. But the large ones (what I tried to stress) is the way to make money at this game. Quickly replenish bank rolls to max amounts, save cash and buy things as well.
That was my direction I was trying to explain.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 28, 2019, 04:14:25 AM
Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
Surely they are worth to restrict the losing amount up to the math expected value or, at best, to reduce the HE.
And 99.9% of bac players will lose a lot more.
Anyway good points we shouldn't forget when playing this silly game.
as.
Not necessarily meant as protocol or solid-rock rules. Just laying out some tips, agenda, etc.
Lots of the winning, no matter how much we all want to claim a secret known holy grail or some secret passage we discovered, there are tons of variables to win more, lose less, maintain your thought and concentration, etc., etc., at the table playing.
Wins come and wins do not come. Losses do the same. IMO, the highest majority of each of us will outdo ourselves with either wagering or time at the tables. Once you become conscious of everything---the advantage switches to your side if you use it in the proper ways. Not easy.
Many will come on this thread and read it and say, it is all luck, when you win simply stop, when you lose simply cease playing, etc., etc., Nice tries, but those people cannot move past a few units won and a few units lost.
IMO, there is a lot more to wagering then picking a side. I have laid most of it out repeatedly.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 28, 2019, 04:14:25 AM
Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
as.
Not looking for the long term. As contradictory as that statement sounds, I find it much more to my advantage to limit most everything to the immediate, Sections & Turning Points.
The rest will either fall into place or prove you wrong without yourself being able to do anything about it because you can;t win anyway.
Talking about allocation (ALLOCATION) so few even give it a quick thought. Seriously! Sad!
Just got an update from my other buddy here from his play last night. He text very little but just called me to fill in the gaps. He is a serious player, has a big time job with a large corporation plus he also owns a very successful restaurant in the area. His problem is, that he feels whatever hit will stay and keep producing. He risks what he brings the same as I do, unlike what so many will believe is the proper way to play without win stop and loss stops, etc. He will bang it out, problem is, he also gets influenced by the board as well as others at the table. Nothing wrong in camaraderie as I have talked about, just he attempts to use that stuff to change up his bad luck, bad choices or his refusal to pull down.
Here are two text screen shots from last night and this morning.
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[attachimg=2]
He was up $9,500.00 plus. He bought in with $2,000.00. He winds up losing $6,500.00 or so after buying in two more times for $2,000.00 and $2,500.00. When he first sat down, he told me he won everything he touched, no matter what he did. Everyone eventually went with him, right about that time, he started to lose. Everyone went against him and they won back their money. He became frustrated, told me himself, big time.
So last night I text him about 1am and he did not answer right away, I knew something was not right. He finally text me this morning as you see at 8am, saying only NOT GOOD. Just got off the phone with him and he explained everything. He won his money on the Banker and the F-7's coming out, all within 1/3rd or so of the shoe he first sat down at. After it, he chased and chased and chased and compared everything to what just happened.
I guarantee if I was there, I would have scooped up about $6,000.00 of the $9-$10k he got up and held it for him until he was all done and we were outside. But I was not. He said, I have no idea what came over me, I knew I could not replicate what I just played out and won and yet I was hell bent on doing it. I lost it all and bought in twice more and that was utterly stupid, really stupid.
Nice story.
At baccarat it's very easy to win but it's easier to lose.
The fact he quickly found himself up $9500 gave him a negative reinforcement that still persists in his mind.
He better quick to play baccarat as he probably thinks the only problem in his play to be an impaired capacity to keep the money won.
An absolute false statement as it's only a small portion of the whole learning process.
as.
I guess I did not make it clear, I already got questioned on it.
He bought in with $2,000.00 and won over $9,500.00. He continued to play.
He lost his entire win money and the original buy in of $2,000.00.
He also lost an additional $2,000.00 and a $2,500.00 buy in after that.
He gave back every bit of his win money and left a total of $6,500.00 at the casino last night.
Not, $6,500.00 of the win money as someone thought I tried to say.
And he is a very seasoned player, very much so.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
He keeps blaming it on all the players losing when he goes. And then when he wins, he won't do anything with the win except start playing larger and larger and larger and longer.
Trying to talk sense into him! I wish someone did this to me when I was first playing this game back in Atlantic City in the 80's and early 90's. It took me a good 15 years to wake up and begin to learn MM and parlaying out of win money, etc.
I know the guy he is talking about that lost the $100,000.00 plus, and that was about his whole bank roll, went on tilt. Plain stupid, sorry to say.
Wake up people!!!!!
There are ways to win and there are ways to hold the win and parlay the win into greater win or use that as a stop play.
I post this for you guys to read, think, open your minds, get the passion, get the smarts, make money!
I do it for you all!!!!!!!!! Seriously!
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 02, 2019, 09:46:01 PM
Nice story.
At baccarat it's very easy to win but it's easier to lose.
The fact he quickly found himself up $9500 gave him a negative reinforcement that still persists in his mind.
He better quick to play baccarat as he probably thinks the only problem in his play to be an impaired capacity to keep the money won.
An absolute false statement as it's only a small portion of the whole learning process.
as.
Bac is extremely easy to win.........................................................
On the other hand, it is extremely easy to lose..................................................
This guy is a friend and a casino/friend-friend, both types mixed together.
He is experienced at playing, although not huge experienced, let us just say experienced.
He does get sucked in at times, he does set the pace and the tone, but he gets sucked in, we all do in a way.
He has about a $75,000.00 salary plus great perks career job from a large company and his wife and him own a very successful Asian restaurant. He plays sporadically, sometimes once a week, sometimes 2 or 3 times a week, not every night, he learned not to a while back.
He knows the scoop and he knows what can happen, just at the tables he get himself convinced the next hand will straighten you out and recoup or win and that is is down side and that is a horrible downside to have, IMO.
If you think you are going to play this game, make a mistake, correct yourself and never make it again--you are dead wrong! It will not happen that way.
Maybe when you go out and drink, get drunk, do something stupid, get caught, pay the price, you correct yourself and you know what not to do again and you do not do it.
But not baccarat. Not sitting there playing this F***king game! Somehow it takes over our mind and soul, over and over and over again.
You know, when he text me back the other night and text
, Ok I got to go back to table talk to U later. I knew he was in trouble, I know it one hundred percent. Because I know the guy, I know how he is, what he does and how he acts.
You can't help some people! I have said for years that most people who enter a casino seem to leave their brains in the reception area on arrival. (Here in the UK, they are not just walk-in. You show your membership card upon arrival)
Years ago, I used to spend hours in the casinos and did a lot of overnight stays. Around midnight onwards, you used to get a lot of the restaurant owners/businessmen of all types come in with substantial sums of money to play roulette. They seemed to think having a big wedge would protect them from the downside of the game. I don't need to say what mostly happened. In business having money and a forceful/persuasive nature can work well. In the gambling world, not so well and yet these same people never really learned their lesson because another often positive trait in the business world (ego/pride) meant they couldn't accept losing in the casino world. Sad really but the reality of a lot of it.
Quote from: Bally6354 on April 03, 2019, 10:41:12 PM
In business having money and a forceful/persuasive nature can work well. In the gambling world, not so well and yet these same people never really learned their lesson because another often positive trait in the business world (ego/pride) meant they couldn't accept losing in the casino world. Sad really but the reality of a lot of it.
This.
First, 99.999% of bac players do not know how the fk probabilities work on such game.
For that matter all those geniuses who sell their invincible systems for $49.99 or $49.999 do not know probabilities either. They'll tell you every shoe is beatable for many units or that after 3-4 shoes you'll surely be ahead of many units; it's like they are telling you the rain is stoppable or elicitable by tribal dancing or by human efforts.
Second, for every bet we'll win, being $5 or $50.000, we'll expect to get a $5 or $50.000 losing bet.
Actually losing bets are always $5 or $50.000, winning bets are slightly worse than that.
If we win 10 hands in a row, we must expect the same opposite 10 losing sequence and it's very important to win and lose nearly the same amount on those specular probabilities.
In reality 100% of bac players will lose a lot more on losing sequences than what they win on the same lenght winning patterns.
Third, under normal circumstances the game is so whimsically produced that we have no means to predict when W/L sequences will equal or deviate from the "norm" besides some complex patterns that need many parameters (and time) to be fulfilled.
Too deviated outcomes are dangerous for opposite reasons: illusion to be a genius from one part or to be unlucky from the other, but they are just the reflex of probability world.
Casinos do not win more money than math expected because we are unlucky but because we try to be more right than expected by raising our finite wagers into a virtual endless bankroll Now tell Al's friend to try to get the money back by one unit profit per every 2-3 or more shoes dealt and you know the answer.
Maybe he can manage to set up his standard bet to $5.000 or $10.000 but he won't do that. He thinks to do a lot better than that by guessing and hoping for the best.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 04, 2019, 09:12:17 PM
This.
First, 99.999% of bac players do not know how the fk probabilities work on such game.
For that matter all those geniuses who sell their invincible systems for $49.99 or $49.999 do not know probabilities either. They'll tell you every shoe is beatable for many units or that after 3-4 shoes you'll surely be ahead of many units; it's like they are telling you the rain is stoppable or elicitable by tribal dancing or by human efforts. (Exactly! People say F***ing unintelligent things to unintelligent people that will hand over money, because it is what they want to hear to justify buying trash or to be able to sell it)
Second, for every bet we'll win, being $5 or $50.000, we'll expect to get a $5 or $50.000 losing bet.
Actually losing bets are always $5 or $50.000, winning bets are slightly worse than that.
If we win 10 hands in a row, we must expect the same opposite 10 losing sequence and it's very important to win and lose nearly the same amount on those specular probabilities.
In reality 100% of bac players will lose a lot more on losing sequences than what they win on the same lenght winning patterns. (A bit confusing, but I think I grasp your meaning, and if I did--you are correct. That is why I detail out so many ways involving money management methods, protocols, 1 + 4 side parlays, sections and turning points, and so on. I know myself out of 20 wagers I will lose on the average 8 to 14 of them. But I bang it out, AKA: pounce on it when the time is right, turning $250 into $500 and then $500 into $1,000 and then $1,000 into $2,000 and then into $4,000 and then forget it all and back down to $200. Or, whatever the numbers might be. I am not always right, but my winnings far outweigh my losses because almost all the time, I know how to cash out and walk away. I do not play and play and play, longer and longer and longer and larger and larger and larger every time, every night. Cannot be done, impossible, never ever. I have been around casinos and gambling for 35 years guys, without drugs, nicotine, and very little alcohol, I retained after my Atlantic City days, retained very very well. Yes, I went on tilt one time in many years and that was last year, I shot a weeks worth of pictures and posted them, got up that week within a few days well over $25,000.00 win, probably around $28,000 to $30,000 and one day I gave back $14,000 or $15,000 of it. I admitted it. Yes I did. But I know that will never happen again. Yes I do risk a certain amount of my bank roll with buy ins and yes I seldom will ever buy in a second time if i lost my buy in. I always replace my bank roll money if lost a couple or a few times, but I have never lost my bank roll, even going on tilt last year in excess of 15 years or so.)
Third, under normal circumstances the game is so whimsically produced that we have no means to predict when W/L sequences will equal or deviate from the "norm" besides some complex patterns that need many parameters (and time) to be fulfilled.
Too deviated outcomes are dangerous for opposite reasons: illusion to be a genius from one part or to be unlucky from the other, but they are just the reflex of probability world. (Correct, most will never understand that, they are too hung up in math and stats and what they believe has to happen, etc.)
Casinos do not win more money than math expected because we are unlucky but because we try to be more right than expected by raising our finite wagers into a virtual endless bankroll (Correct again, no one applies short term to anything any more I think. They have no limits, recoup everything, become rich, do not work a real job, everything will come their way, etc., etc. )(And more than any downside, this is the biggest downside to the best players or the worst. Once you win it is like a convincing best friend, just keep wagering don't worry pal, you can't lose, etc.)
Now tell Al's friend to try to get the money back by one unit profit per every 2-3 or more shoes dealt and you know the answer.
Maybe he can manage to set up his standard bet to $5.000 or $10.000 but he won't do that. He thinks to do a lot better than that by guessing and hoping for the best. (The guy that text me whom lost $18k the past couple of weeks is a pretty good player, but he will never get on a Player run, almost never. That is why I sent him that Player 20 wins with only 2 Banker wins in the first 22 hands. He would have got wiped if he did not pull back. But then again, he does not play every hand or always go on a recouping mission battle war every time he is down. And yes, he does cash out and walk. But his finite skills and his money management is almost zero. He want only large wins, so he gives up $20k and $30k and $40k to get the wins as well. Hard to explain. But he would never do $5k or $10k a hand around here for 2 or 3 or 4 hands. Now the other guy that lost the $100k in one or two days, he wagers way too many hands a shoe and plays numerous shoes all night, I mean like 10 of them for a couple of days like 2 or 3 days. He will at best break even on a week or weekend, and then lose larger sums because he always goes on tilt. He has access to cash but will eventually find himself in jail or prison because he is taking it from a business that is not solely his and one day he will either get ratted out or he will not be able to replace it. That is the bottom line.)
as.
Thanks for your reply Al.
I try to rephrase the point #2.
Every bac player in the universe (me first) will get THE SAME AMOUNT OF W/L HANDS OR THE SAME W/L PATTERNS and even choosing to wager only B side the difference is just 0.18% (0.23% at EZ bac).
Say by playing a given method, I started the session crossing a WWWLW sequence getting me five units of profit (+5).
When I'll encounter the same specular LLLWL sequence, I must lose at most the same number of bets (that is up to -5).
If per every equal specular sequence I'll get more W units than L units I'll be a long term winner.
Thus a WWWWWW sequence (having a 1/64 probability to appear) must give me more units profit than the deficit of what a LLLLLLL sequence produces (having the same 1/64 probability to show up).
It's just a matter of time to get the same amount of WL patterns, unfortunately as we want to be shifted on W side and not aiming to break even, we must expect more L patterns in many situations.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 04, 2019, 10:54:51 PM
Thanks for your reply Al.
I try to rephrase the point #2.
Every bac player in the universe (me first) will get THE SAME AMOUNT OF W/L HANDS OR THE SAME W/L PATTERNS and even choosing to wager only B side the difference is just 0.18% (0.23% at EZ bac). (I think of this all the time and I look at the score board, 42 Bankers and 27 Players and 11 ties. Sure bet the Banker for every single hand, insane way to play and certainly will eventually go broke or never make money, but some people do. And then the next shoe is 37 Bankers and 36 Players and 9 Ties. And then the next shoe is 41 Players and 29 Bankers and 8 Ties. And so on. Win some and lose some. Suck A** way of playing, meaningless and stupid in every sense. And yes, you will win as many as you lose if not more. The way to win, when you can, is selective pouncing on it, but how each one of us discovers that spot/section/time is individual for countless reasons and that is were I have been explaining, detailing, and developing what I have found after tens of thousand of hands and decades of play.)
Say by playing a given method, I started the session crossing a WWWLW sequence getting me five units of profit (+5).
When I'll encounter the same specular LLLWL sequence, I must lose at most the same number of bets (that is up to -5).
If per every equal specular sequence I'll get more W units than L units I'll be a long term winner. (It is not in a given method, no matter if that is 3 hands a shoe, 13 hands a shoe, 33 hands a shoe or 80 hands a shoe. It is in the interpretation of a certain amount of unknown and variable hands within Sections and their respective turning points)
Thus a WWWWWW sequence (having a 1/64 probability to appear) must give me more units profit than the deficit of what a LLLLLLL sequence produces (having the same 1/64 probability to show up). (But the same things, the same numbers of W's and L's will never be consistent. Sure, in one section, say you wager 12 times in XYZ numbers of hands played. Maybe you will WIN 8 times and LOSE 4 times. And maybe you will do that for 10 sections of 12 over XYZ numbers of shoes or hands actually played. You are a winner if you flatbet or if your WINS were with a greater amount of wager value than the LOSSES were, of course. But say you wager 12 times within one shoe and 4 of your WINS were with $2,000.00 each and the other 8 LOSSES were with $200.00 each. You would have won $6,400.00. Yes, how do you know when to bet the $2,000.00 and when to drop it to $200.00, that is another story for another time, that is what I have been detailing and people like Jimske pointing out and labeling my details (or attempt at them) fallacy, dreams, wishful thinking, etc., etc., etc. which in itself is drama, sucks and belongs elsewhere. Sure it is easy as pie to come on and say the things Xander did with 98% one liners that are redundant, funny, Saturday Night Live TV Style, Bill Maher style to the max, etc., but they dwell on everything is unbeatable but they win because they know how to play and walk away. Well maybe they also believe McDonald's has a scrumptious #3 meal that they order, take to the corner, sit down on hard plastic stools with dirty floors and grease fryers stinking up the place, and unwrapped their #3, take a bite of their seemingly delicious #3 with their dried out bun, their beef patty that has tons of fillers and alternatives in it, their fries that are lukewarm and over-salted and whatever else it came with and really do enjoy it. While I am at my house with my pasta sauce made from scratch that took a good hour, pasta boiling, a french baguette from the bakery I rubbed a Roma tomatoes on, spread sliced roasted garlic and basil and parsley on and baked it, cut up some pepperoncini peppers, a Roma tomato, some garlic stuff olives, a yellow bell pepper, a few slices of red onion a couple mushrooms, an orange, and apple and a few pieces of arugula, parsley and basil leaves on the side and put it all together with a drizzle of olive oil and other seasonings, and ate. Each of us in haven of course, the other guy with his #3 in the corner of McDonald's and myself with my type of food that the #3 guy would shrug his shoulders at and say, horrible, puke it up if I ate that.)
It's just a matter of time to get the same amount of WL patterns, unfortunately as we want to be shifted on W side and not aiming to break even, we must expect more L patterns in many situations. (Yes of course, more L's than wins, no matter what you are looking at, expecting or attempting to do. Always, always, always. But there are so many other facets to playing bac and it is just not wagering XYZ and XYZ will produce ABC ($s Winning dollars) by any means. What almost all do not understand and really have no idea is that, the same thing that produced a win just before will be the same thing that produces a loss, or perhaps the same thing that produced that win will produce the next 7 wins the exact same way.)
as.
The game is volatile to the max if you are a player that swings your wagers and brings a decent buy in depending on the wagers you will make and what your goals are.
Most players do not have goals, they have limits based upon their pockets and possibilities.
Read that, pockets and possibilities. Meaning, how much is in your pocket and what you have availability to obtain. And, possibilities. What you think you can win and you are willing to put out there to risk.
Then, adding insult to injury on yourself and what you push onto others, lots of people reach their goals at the tables but they do not stop, they continue and then, that is the exact darn point the plot thickens and usually lies come out of the mouth of the gamblers as to how they never won, the casino cheated, they thought this or that and nothing makes sense as to what really happened or did not happen, etc. Coupled with the fact that will never change, the longer you stay at the table the more chance you have to loose. You will loose, but how much can you win and how much can you hold is the key questions that seldom really get addressed or answered.
It is 2:30 am right now, i have been up the past 2 hours getting phone call after phone call from my buddy that lost the 18k the past couple of weeks, he is currently up $63K in 3 shoes. It is a long story that started at 6pm or so.
ADDING THIS: It is 3:15AM, he is up to $71K after going down to $48K. There are 3 other people at the table, one other one is winning and the other 2 are losing well over $10k each. They are at a $25/$5,000 table. He is playing about every 4th or 5th hand. He losses quicker than he gains and it effect him, I told him to walk away. He started with $4,500.00 buy in.
Attached
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attached post from my phone at 4:45. i will update in morning, i am going to sleep, he will call me, I called the girl he gave the cash to, she is out of there, i made sure! I am going to sleep.
[attachimg=1]
I am on the phone with him, will update here in a little bit, some things are unclear--got some PMs that questioned the time, why I do not know.
About 3:45AM he starts a second shoe, or at least waiting for the shuffle. Then some lady comes in that I detest, as there is always a problem with her. Always! I mean every game she plays, problem is, she brings lots of cash for the region I am in, like $20,000.00-$25,000 every time. This is not Vegas, so that is a sizable amount for this region on a regular basis anyways.
I pleaded with him to get rid of at least $50k of his win and completely reset, he did not want to and I know what happens the highest majority of the time when you hold your win cash or chips. It did to me for years, and every one I knew or know when they win, especially a lot of money. I have written about it for years now. It does not generally matter who, where or how you play, wins influence your decision and goals, influence you and change you almost all the time. It takes huge will power along with lots of experience to know how to hold and divide up win money inside a casino and your continued access to it, period. (I am sure some of the old timers can comment on this???)
At about 4:25 AM They finally get the next shoe underway because there was a common stall among the 3 or 4 players there. Then the lady came in and on her second hand, the second hand of the shoe, she physically throws her drink into the dealer's bank-chip rack and the game is shut down. Security had to be called and she got a taking to. Took about half an hour to game going once again.
Someone PMd me a bit ago and questioned the times. I do not know why but I will reprint the text from him with the time I received the first text, the other time from the second text is not showing which was not long after the first one when she threw her drink.
He promised me he was going to hold $10,000.00 of his cash and wager about 6 hands as you seen in another text he sent me. The bottom line is he got up to $89,000.00 win and he he gave back $29,000.00 and played like 2 more shoes. He walked with $9,000.00 after sending the first $50k out. So I assume he won right at $55k with his buy in returned. Maybe more because he does have lots of family that plays there and probably loaned some money out, IDK for sure but I know he always does.
Point of all this is, there is a point of no return, there is a point of losing and not being able to continue a win, hot streak, heater, whatever you are on, each and every single time. I know first hand and I know from hard core real experience, wins are lost and wins are lost because of our stupid warped minds and we justify giving them back or putting them at further risk, because we classify our win status as rock solid, holy grail, impervious to any further losing, etc., etc. All of us. If you personally are not included in that, congrats--but the rest of us are.
There was no need for him to lose that other $29,000.00. Maybe $9,000.00 to $12,000.00 of it but not the $29,000.00. If you are going to win, you will win on smaller rather than larger or longer. If you cannot win, you will loose whatever is in your possession 98 to 99 plus times out of 100 times. This is the hard core gospel truth guys. I pleaded with him to understand how much to hold out and forget about. I tried to get him to hold $70,000.00 and keep playing with the remainder, but he would not. And just a few minuets ago he stopped by my house and we talked. He admitted how stupid he was and had no idea he could justify for losing that additional $29,000.00. He pinpointed down that his losses really started the point of no return when he lost right at $10,000.00 of the money of which he wound up losing $29,000.00. $19,000.00 is a boat load of extra cash outside of the casino, huge amount! He almost listened but problem is, he views all of his losses collectively and attempts to make up, and again, IMO, that is not the way to think at the table.
Maintain a bank roll, play with buy ins that are in proportion to that divided up. Wins are never added to the bank roll except to replenish it, and DO NOT increase it. I subscribe to plateaus and Levels and most of the people I play with have found those extremely beneficial to their play and knowledge at the tables. If you do a 1/3rd money management method, abide by it, aware and play according to your plateaus and level, etc., you will not give back your wins and you will play more in your advantage than in the casinos. Period. End of story.
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Two of the several point you have illustrated are, imo, of special importance:
- the reasons why we got a W are the same why we got a L.
We humans can't interfere with the natural process of forming hands.
- point of no return.
Many think the point of no return happens whenever we have lost a lot and odds dictate we are very very dog to recover the money lost.
Wrong!
Point of no return could happen even though we are losing just 2, 3 or 4 hands.
Actually long L patterns happen right when LL or LLL or LLLL situations show up.
In order to win we need more W hands than L ones and the probability that a losing sequence will stop should restricted to just one step (LW) or, at most to LLW.
Balancements are not acting so promptly, everyone here knows that a LLLL sequence won't be followed by an instant WWWW pattern. (Think how is unlikely to get BBBBPPPP or PPPPBBBB)
That is when we had the "misfortune" to be behind, we must act very cautiously as we are more likely to lose again WITHIN SHORT TERMS.
Every bac player should sit at the table with a bankroll of 10 units trying to defend it at any cost.
The goal is not to win something but to preserve it.
Of course bets won add to player's bankroll reducing the probability to lose it and when the bankroll is over the gambling life is finished.
Now I'm asking if anyone is interested to try to guess a lot of hands with the risk of burning out the bankroll or to try to increase the bankroll's life step by step.
On the same line, we'll see that after losing two or three hands we're in the realm of fear and after having collected two or three units we'll make our best effort to preserve them, leaving the "you'll never know" hope to gullible players.
I swear that it's way more profitable (or less disadvantegous) to wager high on rare occasions that to bet low frequently.
Next time you'll sit at a bac table try to play with your last 10 units.
i'm certain you'll finish your session up of something.
as.
I will comment more later, on the way to pick up my buddy and we are going to the casino tonight!
FYI and the way I talk.
Buy in, is what we all bring to the casino to buy in with no matter if one or two or three or whatever buy ins, personally I usually only do one buy in per session, trip.
My buy in is from my bank roll. My bank roll does not leave the house ever. I take my portion that will be classified my buy in for the session or trip.
If lost, another buy in will be removed. When winning money all previous buy ins are replaced.
I personally do not alter my bank roll as I find that unacceptable and wrong, pressure and I play at my plateau and level I am comfortable at, playing to increase a bankroll is dangerous IMO.
Point of no return. IMO, means, the point at which you are sucked in, locked in and you are hell bent to get back your buy in, continued buy ins or the win money you lost. Either ones.
I stand fast and hard on my 1/3rd with my win money. Also my buy in is risk money and pure risk. No stop loss. The stop loss would be my buy in. My Buy in is a portion (small) of my Bank roll. I do not find anything else comfortable to play with.
Will post 6 pictures of 2 and 1/2 shoes, they let us take. Great hands we had absolutely fantastic! Will post in a couple of hours after we go eat and I get home we're calling it a night we played for just a little bit more than two shoes may be about 30 hands total we wagered on winning 25 or so.
Here are the shoes we played:
First Shoe:
[attachimg=1]
Second Shoe:
[attachimg=2]
Second Shoe Middle:
[attachimg=3]
Second Shoe Late:
[attachimg=4]
Third Shoe:
[attachimg=5]
Third Shoe we played until hand 22:
[attachimg=6]
Here is the first shoe with the 5 sections we were playing out as sections and their turning points:
[attachimg=1]
Okay let me try to explain this. Lots went on last night, all good, almost anyway. Today my buddy is crashed out on my living room floor, wrapped in like three blankets with all my couch pillows around him, LOL! We got out of the casino around 10 PM, got there around 5PM, played 2 and a half shoes. He brought $5,000.00 and I brought $3,500.00. We planned on staying most of the night and banging it out, but we really huddled up and said, if we see something--just go for it, do not dwell on it or get caught up in the rest of the table and what they do, which happens and happens all the time.
I will first try to walk you through the shoe and what happened, then i will go into some specific wagers. I think our total wagers were about 30, each shoe had about 10 or so. WE pretty much copied each other, the other might have been larger or smaller but we did not complicated ourselves by wager against each other or anything of the likes, which happens but we stopped that before it could.
Section A. Player totaled 4, all singles. Banker totaled 5 with 2 doubles. Not much, just weak, pretty normal start. I think all cards pulled for the Player 3rd card or the Banker 3rd cards were either increases to 8s or 9s or an instant win for that side. Like I said, pretty normal by the Big Road but the 3rd card proved to be a consistent advantage to whatever side got it, no matter if that was P or B.
We really did not wager on anything in Section A. Section B comes. Banker totals 13 and Player totals 5. Now we are sitting at Banker 18 and Player 9, exactly double in total numbers. But what was evident to us as it was happening was the sudden change to 3s and 4s. Another very much normal change up or come about, whatever you want to label it.
Don't you think that ties displayed by separate entities could be a bit confusing?
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 07, 2019, 08:49:51 PM
Don't you think that ties displayed by separate entities could be a bit confusing?
as.
Ties, like most other things within each shoe, can stick, cut or cause something else you classify what happens, comes about because of the previous hand/event.
A great example is within that second shoe we played last night I posted.
But, IMO it will only confuse you or possibly take away from something if you put too much emphasis on basing something off of the previous. I can discount the ties out personally.
Second shoe with sections and turning points:
[attachimg=1]
Third shoe with sections and turning points started:
[attachimg=2]
I will try to make some brief notes and explain how and why we wagered on what we did. We profited about $22,000.00 on the 25 or so hands we won out of 30.
We got most of the Players correct in Sections C and D of the second shoe and Section B of the 3rd shoe.
Likewise we did extremely well with the Players in Sections C, D and E of the first shoe. If there was total table camaraderie it would have been awesome but the few that made big money on the Bankers in the first half gave it all back and went deep into their buy ins and sorry to say, it held the table back. And that was a great and easy shoe to profit on, especially after the first half of strong Banker.
Quote from: alrelax on April 09, 2019, 11:10:46 AM
I will try to make some brief notes and explain how and why we wagered on what we did. We profited about $22,000.00 on the 25 or so hands we won out of 30
. 80% hit rate I impressive! Average bet size $1k to get 22k. Looking forward to the explanation. Thanks
Great shoe from an hour ago, we are at a restaurant so thought I would post a shoe with 3 sections.
[attachimg=1]
My buddy, another person and myself went to the casino late last night. We arrived at the casino property and we kind of had a huddle and a before game meet in the parking lot. What is strange is that we all looked at each other and laughed. I said, you first, the other shrugged his shoulders and the third person, says--hey tonight is the night.
Now, I have tons of experiences playing for a solid 30 plus years, since the days of kick-behind boardwalk get down and dirty Atlantic City. Huddles on the boardwalk, meets out on the Black Horse or White Horse Pikes prior to getting to Atlantic City, meets up on I-95 at the service areas prior to getting off to go to Mohegan Sun or Foxwoods Casinos, all of that stuff. Nothing new, nothing at all. Most are just pre-arrival bull stuff, but you know, once in awhile those meets do add thought, conscious alertness and allow one to think a bit clearer and set things aside that do distract us, or at least let us be aware of such.
We stood there and talked. The three of us said, follow what the shoe is presenting, do not fall prey to the people and the side line stuff, be conscious, be aware. Follow, no matter if chopping, 2s, streaks or whatever. Just lets overpower the shoe.
What happened inside was just that and yes, we did get side tracked and yes, we did also follow what we said. I just wish we totally tuned out the side line stuff.
Just reality. Real events, real play and real baccarat.
Gee, Al, you sure you're not from Philly? Whatyadoin' on the White Horse, pickin' blueberries in Hammonton? I-95? If yer comin' from Jersey City/NYC you'd take the Turnpike>Pkway>ACXpressway. Maybe you just liked the scenic route? Route 9 is a fun ride further south taking in a lot of the Jersey coastline. I come back that way sometimes just for gigs if I got time to kill. New Jersey gets a lot of jokes but it really has some great spots! It's not called The Garden State for nuthin'. Can't beat Jersey tomatoes or corn as far as I'm concerned!
When I was a kid my dad would give me a whole roll of pennies! Man, I was in heaven walkin' the boards and playin' those arcades! Ahh, the good old days!
Anywho, what I thought you were going to do (besides drawing lines after the fact) was to give some examples. Everybody needs a reason to bet, right? So you just got to pick a few spots on the shoe and say what and why you bet there and, if you like, you could say how much and why? What's so hard about that?
Thanks
P.S. Lugi's favorite series? Boardwalk Empire!
Oh yeah, the X-wife and I did have a restaurant in Center City on South 18th street at the time, also had our boat docked in Somers Point. But yeah, on the GSP to Philly and then back on 30 or 40 (the White or Black Horse Parkways). A couple family members in and around Hamilton to Mays Landing. Always a stop over for something before the few min ride from GSP to AC.
Those were definitely the days!
There are no set waves or sequences.
There are no set Sections and Turning Points.
There are waves and sequences yes, but they are not set and have no agenda.
When they are there, they will appear, however an equal amount of time or greater, they will not, and that is what almost all players do not realize, do not want to realize, will not admit until it happens and what makes it worse, is those very same sequences, waves and Sections will reappear like clockwork in testing. They do not and will never carry over to a positive cash flow in real life gaming.
Just remember, do not fall in that trap because it will cost you and you will win and then lose it all and more so, it is a start but there is so much more that the vast majority just does not grasp. Be smarter, believe with an open mind, study and engage in reality.
Quote from: alrelax on April 14, 2019, 10:07:41 PM
There are no set waves or sequences.
There are no set Sections and Turning Points.
There are waves and sequences yes, but they are not set and have no agenda.
LOL. I'm pretty sure everyone gets that part.
B-B-B-B-P-P-B-P-P-P-B-B-P-P-P-B-P-B-P-P-B-B-B-P-B-P-P-B-P-B-B-P-B-P-P-B-B-B-P-B-B-B-B-
P-P-P-P-P-P-P-P-B-P-P-P-B-B-P-B-B-B-P-B-B-P
Plus there was 13 Ties
4 Panda 8s and 3 F-7's. 2 three card 8/9s.
Banker 32
Player 33
Quote from: alrelax on April 09, 2019, 11:10:46 AM
I will try to make some brief notes and explain how and why we wagered on what we did. We profited about $22,000.00 on the 25 or so hands we won out of 30.
We got most of the Players correct in Sections C and D of the second shoe and Section B of the 3rd shoe.
Likewise we did extremely well with the Players in Sections C, D and E of the first shoe. If there was total table camaraderie it would have been awesome but the few that made big money on the Bankers in the first half gave it all back and went deep into their buy ins and sorry to say, it held the table back. And that was a great and easy shoe to profit on, especially after the first half of strong Banker.
What's the matter Glen, decided not to say how and why? ;)
Quote from: Jimske on April 15, 2019, 04:08:58 PM
What's the matter Glen, decided not to say how and why? ;)
Not exactly. But I will try to tonight. I need time at the computer rather than a few mins here and there, as it has been the past several days.
Bump. Stand by this post in my opening here.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 28, 2019, 04:14:25 AM
Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
Surely they are worth to restrict the losing amount up to the math expected value or, at best, to reduce the HE.
And 99.9% of bac players will lose a lot more.
Anyway good points we shouldn't forget when playing this silly game.
as.
Asym,
Long term will be determined by how one sticks to his Levels & Plateaus and how that same person employs a money management method that will be strictly adhered to and believed in. Nothing else can ever govern a player except himself.
I agree, but those tools help the player to lose less and not to win.
To consistently win we have to play a game where we'll get more winning hands than losing hands. Imo, no MM could get the best of it unless it's actioned into an unrandom (beatable) game.
as.