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[alrelax]

A person needs tools to sit down and play baccarat.  A buy in and physical presence at a casino, is not enough to gain any type of advantage.  The same as a mechanic in an automotive repair shop.  He has tools meaning; wrenches, screwdrivers, ratchets and sockets, hammers and numerous other devices such as torque wrenches and speciality equipment.  But he also needs knowledge, experience and assistance.  Without it all, his performance will not be as good as those that have it.  Merely turning a wrench without any type of guidance or knowledge, for example in replacing a part of how tight and what poundage of torque is required for the bolts that hold on certain parts, will sacrifice the work he just performed, etc.  Get the picture?

Three things I would like to discuss this morning in relation to the player?s frame-of-mind and decision-making process at the table.  Allocation, Decision making too late and the so-called psychological cushion others are talking about on various websites that they claim is so valuable.

Allocation. To me allocation is extremely important.  Allocation is the amount you are willing to risk gaining a win or suffering with a loss.  Either way, there will be a result.  Results effect how your subsequent wagering process will be affected.  Many say, that they sit there without regards to anything or any event and they withdraw themselves from the emotional aspect of the game.  Bull stuff with capitals!!  I cannot believe that or feed into that.  While writing that sounds ideal and pretty good, but I do not think it applies well and is carried out in strict force consistently. 

My method of allocation is dependent upon what my buy in is, not my wins or my losses.  Not the amount I am attempting to recoup or anything that happened in other sessions, days, weeks, months or years prior.  It is strictly limited to the instant time I am wagering.  I work like this.  Say I have $1,000.00 in front of me from my buy in.  I might wager $75.00 to $150.00 on my first wager.  Why?  Because in my mind and experience, I already know that if I lose 6 or 7 wagers straight, it is not my day at the tables.  Second, my buy in is risk and not a psychological cushion that governs my stop loss with a known part of it never going to be played.  All that does is stress the player out because he has less funds available to him and he recalculates subconsciously anyway, confusing him and giving him a false hope.  More on that later. 

I want my wins to add up and I want more than anything to wager and have the casinos money rather than my risk capital.  But my mind stays clear and is set to lose my buy in.  The same as a trip.  XYZ for gas, XYZ for food, XYZ for motels, XYZ for entertainment, XYZ for shopping, XYZ for anything I require and want and a bit extra.  Same at the casino, no different.  Why bring $500.00 if you are going to say you can only spend $200.00.  If that is the case, bring the $200.00 and that is it.  Clear and concise, rather than the fudging on the math and attempt to manipulate your psychological frame of mind.  IT DOES NOT WORK IN MOST EVERYONES CASE!  Stop thinking a stop loss on your buy-in will assit you, it does not, IMO. 

So, I wager $125.00 and lose.  I wager another $125.00 and win.  Again, the allocation question must come to mind before decision making takes place as far as what to wager on, progression, flat betting, wait it out, etc. What are you going to do with that $125.00 won?  Myself, I would like to take $75.00 and put it in my buy in and take the other $50.00 and put it in my pocket.  Knowing my skim off the win will go towards a smaller stash starting in my pocket before I get to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method I love so much.  But the beginning of play is crucial to me because of the emotional aspect and staying away from false-positives.   I want $400.00 or so in my pocket that has nothing to do with my buy in or play.  I do not want to get over confident or have any kind of crutch that might alter my way of thinking.  Sitting with more chips in front of me that I won or cannot spend, is dangerous, my mind would tend to focus on that, rather than the game itself.  Then I would turn into protecting and abiding by what I have to do rather than what I should do. 

False-Positives will hurt you and hurt you with your decision making ability you have to have.

Say my next wager was $200.00 and I lost.  Fine, move on.  Say my following wager was $150.00 and I won.  I would put it all in my buy in.  Say my next wager was $300.00 and I won.  I would take $125.00 and add it to my pocket and put the $175.00 win and the bet back in my buy in stack.  I would continue in whatever consistency I was wagering and attempt to get around 50% of my original buy in, back in my pocket and a bit more added to my stack in front of me.  Then I would move into some type of true positive progression of 1-3-2-6 or 1-1-3-6-12, etc.  I need to be playing with the casino?s money for a true clear mind and a chance to double, triple, 10-fold or 40-fold my buy in.  Yes, some buy ins will be totally lost, but they are fractions of my bank roll and at least for the past minimum of 10 years, I have not lost my bank roll without replenishing it from a subsequent win later after the loss, maybe not the subsquent session or two or even three, but before the depleation of my bank roll.  My buy in is an allocation of my bank roll, not my bank roll at risk for each session. 

What works for me, may not in anyway work for you.  But rather than sit there and claim you have a 10 unit buy in and you will wager only until you lose 3 or 4 units is not the way I play or believe anyone can prosper at this game.  I tend more to double or triple a buy in and every so often pounce on it, which will allow me to realize a 20-50 times buy in win.  I could never do that with a set win stop and loss stop.  I have tried and I already discovered that years ago back in Atlantic City and Eastern Connecticut over hundreds and hundreds of trips. 

The same with my 1/3rd Money Management Method, it is an allocation.  Say I just won $2,000.00.  $700.00 would go to my buy in stack, $700.00 in my pocket for absolute cash out and not going back towards gambling ever, and the other $600.00 maybe in reserve for a decision to be made if I lose quickly thereafter? 

To me, that is why allocation is very important and necessary.  Simply stacking the wins up in front of you will not be the answer, I promise you.  Simply putting them in your pocket, likewise, will not be the answer as well.  You have no satisfaction if you do the latter.  There is no accountability and no plan, you simply have the chips and you will either keep attempting longer and larger sessions with the false-positive that you will either win more or recoup everything.  That is what will happen. 

Decision making too late. I found this to be one of the most harmful things to a person sitting at the table playing.  You will become emotional inside and you will have your frame of mind altered.  Do not jump on a run when it is 5 or 7 repeated wins already out there.  Especially if you were on the other side.  More times than not, that run will end and that is the point your emotions will hurt and hurt you tremendously.  The other night when I had the shoe started out of the gate with the 7 Players and one Banker, One Player, One Banker and then 12 straight Players, is a perfect example.  The start of a shoe, most were on the Banker.  Player won.  They stayed on the Banker and some doubled up or tripled up.  Then Player again.  Then the war was on.  After like 5 or 6 Players, some switched sides and it was short lived, the new loss that they never really wanted to wager on and strictly looking to recoup their money, fails them and their insides are now upside down.  Then when the 12 run Players came, war was on big time. 

A $200.00 beginning wager on that 12 Player streak that was a small part of the win money from the 7 Player streak a few hands before, gives the person the power to overpower the shoe.  Not change the shoe, just overpower it.  There is a difference and a very large difference.  Call it hocus pokus, it is all good.  I am talking about reality here, not fantasy, dreams or theory. 

But again, allocation will come into play, not a straight continued positive progression, unless you are talking about a 1-1-3 and then stop.  Yes, a win but a grind.  I do not play that way when it is a give me easy money time.  I rather pounce on it with all win money and keep winning and win large and then go back to my same level and plateau prior to the win, once the win stops.  If I have a 4 or 8 unit win stop, I will never have realized the wins I had playing this game. 

Decision making effects everything in your continued wagers.  Be careful, you cannot remove yourself from the game in most situations.  If you do, you will be affected without being able to realize the larger wins when the opportunity is there and needs to be taken advantage of.  This has the same to do with following other players that are winning, wagering against those other players that are losing, telling yourself anything must happen because of something that already happened or did not happen.  All those things.  The highest majority of all of those situations will be too late, sure there might be the false positive ones that would encourage you to continue doing those type of things, but all they do is add to your losses, confusion and misalignment with the game itself. 

Align yourself with the game, with the shoe and with your knowledge.  There is a time and place to align yourself with other players or outside influences, but not every hand or with any consistency. 

The so-called psychological cushion.  Please take another look at that one.  If you are a player that believes this hype, you are gullible.  There is no real reason to bring $400 or $500 if you are saying you can only lose or will limit yourself to a $100 or $200 loss.  You will not do it, period.  If so, bring only the $100 or $200 or whatever number the loss figure can be, that you are willing to lose.  The extra amount on the table will only influence you and give you false positives and alter your mind as I have already mentioned here.  I do not care what the figures are.  IMO, you must have a buy in that is a portion of your bank roll and that buy in is strictly risk capital being allocated. If you are trying for sizable wins rather than a grind everyday method so many swear by (of course without proof, or any other viable showing) you need a bank roll of approximately 20 times your buy-in to have the positive chance for you to employ some kind of money management method such as mine.  Once you do, you will be on the way to profitable sessions when they present themselves.  But, key is, maintaining your level and plateau with something similar to my 1/3rd method of hold.

You must know what your Level & Plateau of play really is.  Once you have figured that out, you can attempt to stay conscious of that and keep yourself on track while consciously employing a money management method that will certainly work in your favor.  Without just that, you are at a disadvantage.

If you blow through your bank roll and never got to replenish it with wins from your allocated playing results, something is really wrong with your wagering, parlays, money management method and/or your wagering beliefs and how long or how much you play the game.     

Summation. The power and the wholehearted beliefs in the positive results, a great money management method that will allow you to be a better player rather than the longer and longer and larger and larger mentality that will only add to the casino?s bottom line and allow them to legally take your money with a smile. 

Hell, guys let me sum it all up for you.  Here.  My host at one of the local casinos in my region gives me free hotel rooms, free food, free comps at the gift shop, free promo chips and free food court comps for just about anything I want.  They are in proportion to my play with a bit of discretion of course by either the host or the senior floor person on duty.  But those free things, comps, are an allocation of my play, not my wins or my losses.  Yes, large wins and large losses are guidelines for those personnel to go outside of their normal computer-generated comp guidelines which is something like 4 hours of play, at any certain level of wagering, divided by their game hold ratio, will generate XYZ $ of comp.  But that is also an allocation as to your play.  Playing is the same as being rated, the bottom line is, "Let's see what happens". 

Back to my coffee, notes, and opening a package of Twinkies.  Later.

[AsymBacGuy]

Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
Surely they are worth to restrict the losing amount up to the math expected value or, at best, to reduce the HE.
And 99.9% of bac players will lose a lot more.

Anyway good points we shouldn't forget when playing this silly game.

as.

[alrelax]

You are correct.

But my point is, when you win---you are able to win more safely.

When you lose, you restrict yourself to the buy in only.

Nothing to do with the win a few, lose a few, win a couple, lose a couple, win and lose repeatedly and maybe break even or lose.  Or win and give it all back. 

A few large wins are just as easy to get as a few small ones.  But the large ones (what I tried to stress) is the way to make money at this game.  Quickly replenish bank rolls to max amounts, save cash and buy things as well. 

That was my direction I was trying to explain.

[alrelax]

Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.
Surely they are worth to restrict the losing amount up to the math expected value or, at best, to reduce the HE.
And 99.9% of bac players will lose a lot more.

Anyway good points we shouldn't forget when playing this silly game.

as.

Not necessarily meant as protocol or solid-rock rules.  Just laying out some tips, agenda, etc. 

Lots of the winning, no matter how much we all want to claim a secret known holy grail or some secret passage we discovered, there are tons of variables to win more, lose less, maintain your thought and concentration, etc., etc., at the table playing.

Wins come and wins do not come.  Losses do the same.  IMO, the highest majority of each of us will outdo ourselves with either wagering or time at the tables.  Once you become conscious of everything---the advantage switches to your side if you use it in the proper ways.  Not easy.

Many will come on this thread and read it and say, it is all luck, when you win simply stop, when you lose simply cease playing, etc., etc.,  Nice tries, but those people cannot move past a few units won and a few units lost. 

IMO, there is a lot more to wagering then picking a side.  I have laid most of it out repeatedly. 

[alrelax]

Really good insights Al, yet not sufficient to get a long term edge.

as.

Not looking for the long term.  As contradictory as that statement sounds, I find it much more to my advantage to limit most everything to the immediate, Sections & Turning Points. 

The rest will either fall into place or prove you wrong without yourself being able to do anything about it because you can;t win anyway. 

[alrelax]

Talking about allocation (ALLOCATION) so few even give it a quick thought.  Seriously!  Sad!

Just got an update from my other buddy here from his play last night.  He text very little but just called me to fill in the gaps.  He is a serious player, has a big time job with a large corporation plus he also owns a very successful restaurant in the area.  His problem is, that he feels whatever hit will stay and keep producing.  He risks what he brings the same as I do, unlike what so many will believe is the proper way to play without win stop and loss stops, etc.  He will bang it out, problem is, he also gets influenced by the board as well as others at the table.  Nothing wrong in camaraderie as I have talked about, just he attempts to use that stuff to change up his bad luck, bad choices or his refusal to pull down. 

Here are two text screen shots from last night and this morning. 

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

He was up $9,500.00 plus.  He bought in with $2,000.00.  He winds up losing $6,500.00 or so after buying in two more times for $2,000.00 and $2,500.00.  When he first sat down, he told me he won everything he touched, no matter what he did.  Everyone eventually went with him, right about that time, he started to lose.  Everyone went against him and they won back their money.  He became frustrated, told me himself, big time. 

So last night I text him about 1am and he did not answer right away, I knew something was not right.  He finally text me this morning as you see at 8am, saying only NOT GOOD.  Just got off the phone with him and he explained everything.  He won his money on the Banker and the F-7's coming out, all within 1/3rd or so of the shoe he first sat down at.  After it, he chased and chased and chased and compared everything to what just happened. 

I guarantee if I was there, I would have scooped up about $6,000.00 of the $9-$10k he got up and held it for him until he was all done and we were outside.  But I was not.  He said, I have no idea what came over me, I knew I could not replicate what I just played out and won and yet I was hell bent on doing it.  I lost it all and bought in twice more and that was utterly stupid, really stupid. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Nice story.

At baccarat it's very easy to win but it's easier to lose.
The fact he quickly found himself up $9500 gave him a negative reinforcement that still persists in his mind.
He better quick to play baccarat as he probably thinks the only problem in his play to be an impaired capacity to keep the money won.
An absolute false statement as it's only a small portion of the whole learning process.

as.

[alrelax]

I guess I did not make it clear, I already got questioned on it. 

He bought in with $2,000.00 and won over $9,500.00.  He continued to play. 

He lost his entire win money and the original buy in of $2,000.00.

He also lost an additional $2,000.00 and a $2,500.00 buy in after that.

He gave back every bit of his win money and left a total of $6,500.00 at the casino last night.

Not, $6,500.00 of the win money as someone thought I tried to say.

And he is a very seasoned player, very much so.

[alrelax]

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

He keeps blaming it on all the players losing when he goes.  And then when he wins, he won't do anything with the win except start playing larger and larger and larger and longer. 

Trying to talk sense into him!  I wish someone did this to me when I was first playing this game back in Atlantic City in the 80's and early 90's.  It took me a good 15 years to wake up and begin to learn MM and parlaying out of win money, etc. 

I know the guy he is talking about that lost the $100,000.00 plus, and that was about his whole bank roll, went on tilt.  Plain stupid, sorry to say.

[alrelax]

Wake up people!!!!! 

There are ways to win and there are ways to hold the win and parlay the win into greater win or use that as a stop play.

I post this for you guys to read, think, open your minds, get the passion, get the smarts, make money! 

I do it for you all!!!!!!!!!   Seriously!

[alrelax]

Nice story.

At baccarat it's very easy to win but it's easier to lose.
The fact he quickly found himself up $9500 gave him a negative reinforcement that still persists in his mind.
He better quick to play baccarat as he probably thinks the only problem in his play to be an impaired capacity to keep the money won.
An absolute false statement as it's only a small portion of the whole learning process.

as.

Bac is extremely easy to win.........................................................

On the other hand, it is extremely easy to lose..................................................

This guy is a friend and a casino/friend-friend, both types mixed together.
He is experienced at playing, although not huge experienced, let us just say experienced.

He does get sucked in at times, he does set the pace and the tone, but he gets sucked in, we all do in a way.

He has about a $75,000.00 salary plus great perks career job from a large company and his wife and him own a very successful Asian restaurant.  He plays sporadically, sometimes once a week, sometimes 2 or 3 times a week, not every night, he learned not to a while back. 

He knows the scoop and he knows what can happen, just at the tables he get himself convinced the next hand will straighten you out and recoup or win and that is is down side and that is a horrible downside to have, IMO. 

If you think you are going to play this game, make a mistake, correct yourself and never make it again--you are dead wrong!  It will not happen that way. 

Maybe when you go out and drink, get drunk, do something stupid, get caught, pay the price, you correct yourself and you know what not to do again and you do not do it. But not baccarat.  Not sitting there playing this F***king game!  Somehow it takes over our mind and soul, over and over and over again. 

You know, when he text me back the other night and text, Ok I got to go back to table talk to U later.  I knew he was in trouble, I know it one hundred percent.  Because I know the guy, I know how he is, what he does and how he acts. 

[Bally6354]

You can't help some people! I have said for years that most people who enter a casino seem to leave their brains in the reception area on arrival. (Here in the UK, they are not just walk-in. You show your membership card upon arrival)

Years ago, I used to spend hours in the casinos and did a lot of overnight stays. Around midnight onwards, you used to get a lot of the restaurant owners/businessmen of all types come in with substantial sums of money to play roulette. They seemed to think having a big wedge would protect them from the downside of the game. I don't need to say what mostly happened. In business having money and a forceful/persuasive nature can work well. In the gambling world, not so well and yet these same people never really learned their lesson because another often positive trait in the business world (ego/pride) meant they couldn't accept losing in the casino world. Sad really but the reality of a lot of it.

[AsymBacGuy]

In business having money and a forceful/persuasive nature can work well. In the gambling world, not so well and yet these same people never really learned their lesson because another often positive trait in the business world (ego/pride) meant they couldn't accept losing in the casino world. Sad really but the reality of a lot of it.

This.

First, 99.999% of bac players do not know how the fk probabilities work on such game.
For that matter all those geniuses who sell their invincible systems for $49.99 or $49.999 do not know probabilities either. They'll tell you every shoe is beatable for many units or that after 3-4 shoes you'll surely be ahead of many units; it's like they are telling you the rain is stoppable or elicitable by tribal dancing or by human efforts.

Second, for every bet we'll win, being $5 or $50.000, we'll expect to get a $5 or $50.000 losing bet.
Actually losing bets are always $5 or $50.000, winning bets are slightly worse than that.
If we win 10 hands in a row, we must expect the same opposite 10 losing sequence and it's very important to win and lose nearly the same amount on those specular probabilities.
In reality 100% of bac players will lose a lot more on losing sequences than what they win on the same lenght winning patterns. 

Third, under normal circumstances the game is so whimsically produced that we have no means to predict when W/L sequences will equal or deviate from the "norm" besides some complex patterns that need many parameters (and time) to be fulfilled.
Too deviated outcomes are dangerous for opposite reasons: illusion to be a genius from one part or to be unlucky from the other, but they are just the reflex of probability world. 

Casinos do not win more money than math expected because we are unlucky but because we try to be more right than expected by raising our finite wagers into a virtual endless bankroll

Now tell Al's friend to try to get the money back by one unit profit per every 2-3 or more shoes dealt and you know the answer.
Maybe he can manage to set up his standard bet to $5.000 or $10.000 but he won't do that. He thinks to do a lot better than that by guessing and hoping for the best.

as. 


 

 

[alrelax]

This.

First, 99.999% of bac players do not know how the fk probabilities work on such game.
For that matter all those geniuses who sell their invincible systems for $49.99 or $49.999 do not know probabilities either. They'll tell you every shoe is beatable for many units or that after 3-4 shoes you'll surely be ahead of many units; it's like they are telling you the rain is stoppable or elicitable by tribal dancing or by human efforts.  (Exactly!  People say F***ing unintelligent things to unintelligent people that will hand over money, because it is what they want to hear to justify buying trash or to be able to sell it) 

Second, for every bet we'll win, being $5 or $50.000, we'll expect to get a $5 or $50.000 losing bet.
Actually losing bets are always $5 or $50.000, winning bets are slightly worse than that.
If we win 10 hands in a row, we must expect the same opposite 10 losing sequence and it's very important to win and lose nearly the same amount on those specular probabilities.
In reality 100% of bac players will lose a lot more on losing sequences than what they win on the same lenght winning patterns. (A bit confusing, but I think I grasp your meaning, and if I did--you are correct.  That is why I detail out so many ways involving money management methods, protocols, 1 + 4 side parlays, sections and turning points, and so on.  I know myself out of 20 wagers I will lose on the average 8 to 14 of them.  But I bang it out, AKA:  pounce on it when the time is right, turning $250 into $500 and then $500 into $1,000 and then $1,000 into $2,000 and then into $4,000 and then forget it all and back down to $200.  Or, whatever the numbers might be.  I am not always right, but my winnings far outweigh my losses because almost all the time, I know how to cash out and walk away.  I do not play and play and play, longer and longer and longer and larger and larger and larger every time, every night.  Cannot be done, impossible, never ever.  I have been around casinos and gambling for 35 years guys, without drugs, nicotine, and very little alcohol, I retained after my Atlantic City days, retained very very well.  Yes, I went on tilt one time in many years and that was last year, I shot a weeks worth of pictures and posted them, got up that week within a few days well over $25,000.00 win, probably around $28,000 to $30,000 and one day I gave back $14,000 or $15,000 of it.  I admitted it.  Yes I did.  But I know that will never happen again.  Yes I do risk a certain amount of my bank roll with buy ins and yes I seldom will ever buy in a second time if i lost my buy in.  I always replace my bank roll money if lost a couple or a few times, but I have never lost my bank roll, even going on tilt last year in excess of 15 years or so.) 

Third, under normal circumstances the game is so whimsically produced that we have no means to predict when W/L sequences will equal or deviate from the "norm" besides some complex patterns that need many parameters (and time) to be fulfilled.
Too deviated outcomes are dangerous for opposite reasons: illusion to be a genius from one part or to be unlucky from the other, but they are just the reflex of probability world. (Correct, most will never understand that, they are too hung up in math and stats and what they believe has to happen, etc.)

Casinos do not win more money than math expected because we are unlucky but because we try to be more right than expected by raising our finite wagers into a virtual endless bankroll (Correct again, no one applies short term to anything any more I think.  They have no limits, recoup everything, become rich, do not work a real job, everything will come their way, etc., etc. )(And more than any downside, this is the biggest downside to the best players or the worst.  Once you win it is like a convincing best friend, just keep wagering don't worry pal, you can't lose, etc.) 

Now tell Al's friend to try to get the money back by one unit profit per every 2-3 or more shoes dealt and you know the answer.
Maybe he can manage to set up his standard bet to $5.000 or $10.000 but he won't do that. He thinks to do a lot better than that by guessing and hoping for the best. (The guy that text me whom lost $18k the past couple of weeks is a pretty good player, but he will never get on a Player run, almost never.  That is why I sent him that Player 20 wins with only 2 Banker wins in the first 22 hands.  He would have got wiped if he did not pull back.  But then again, he does not play every hand or always go on a recouping mission battle war every time he is down.  And yes, he does cash out and walk.  But his finite skills and his money management is almost zero.  He want only large wins, so he gives up $20k and $30k and $40k to get the wins as well.  Hard to explain.  But he would never do $5k or $10k a hand around here for 2 or 3 or 4 hands.  Now the other guy that lost the $100k in one or two days, he wagers way too many hands a shoe and plays numerous shoes all night, I mean like 10 of them for a couple of days like 2 or 3 days.  He will at best break even on a week or weekend, and then lose larger sums because he always goes on tilt.  He has access to cash but will eventually find himself in jail or prison because he is taking it from a business that is not solely his and one day he will either get ratted out or he will not be able to replace it.  That is the bottom line.)

as. 


 

[AsymBacGuy]

Thanks for your reply Al.

I try to rephrase the point #2.

Every bac player in the universe (me first) will get THE SAME AMOUNT OF W/L HANDS OR THE SAME W/L PATTERNS and even choosing to wager only B side the difference is just 0.18% (0.23% at EZ bac).

Say by playing a given method, I started the session crossing a WWWLW sequence getting me five units of profit (+5).
When I'll encounter the same specular LLLWL sequence, I must lose at most the same number of bets (that is up to -5).
If per every equal specular sequence I'll get more W units than L units I'll be a long term winner.

Thus a WWWWWW sequence (having a 1/64 probability to appear) must give me more units profit than the deficit of what a LLLLLLL sequence produces (having the same 1/64 probability to show up).

It's just a matter of time to get the same amount of WL patterns, unfortunately as we want to be shifted on W side and not aiming to break even, we must expect more L patterns in many situations.

as.