A person needs tools to sit down and play baccarat. A buy in and physical presence at a casino, is not enough to gain any type of advantage. The same as a mechanic in an automotive repair shop. He has tools meaning; wrenches, screwdrivers, ratchets and sockets, hammers and numerous other devices such as torque wrenches and speciality equipment. But he also needs knowledge, experience and assistance. Without it all, his performance will not be as good as those that have it. Merely turning a wrench without any type of guidance or knowledge, for example in replacing a part of how tight and what poundage of torque is required for the bolts that hold on certain parts, will sacrifice the work he just performed, etc. Get the picture?
Three things I would like to discuss this morning in relation to the player?s frame-of-mind and decision-making process at the table. Allocation, Decision making too late and the so-called psychological cushion others are talking about on various websites that they claim is so valuable.
Allocation. To me allocation is extremely important. Allocation is the amount you are willing to risk gaining a win or suffering with a loss. Either way, there will be a result. Results effect how your subsequent wagering process will be affected. Many say, that they sit there without regards to anything or any event and they withdraw themselves from the emotional aspect of the game. Bull stuff with capitals!! I cannot believe that or feed into that. While writing that sounds ideal and pretty good, but I do not think it applies well and is carried out in strict force consistently.
My method of allocation is dependent upon what my buy in is, not my wins or my losses. Not the amount I am attempting to recoup or anything that happened in other sessions, days, weeks, months or years prior. It is strictly limited to the instant time I am wagering. I work like this. Say I have $1,000.00 in front of me from my buy in. I might wager $75.00 to $150.00 on my first wager. Why? Because in my mind and experience, I already know that if I lose 6 or 7 wagers straight, it is not my day at the tables. Second, my buy in is risk and not a psychological cushion that governs my stop loss with a known part of it never going to be played. All that does is stress the player out because he has less funds available to him and he recalculates subconsciously anyway, confusing him and giving him a false hope. More on that later.
I want my wins to add up and I want more than anything to wager and have the casinos money rather than my risk capital. But my mind stays clear and is set to lose my buy in. The same as a trip. XYZ for gas, XYZ for food, XYZ for motels, XYZ for entertainment, XYZ for shopping, XYZ for anything I require and want and a bit extra. Same at the casino, no different. Why bring $500.00 if you are going to say you can only spend $200.00. If that is the case, bring the $200.00 and that is it. Clear and concise, rather than the fudging on the math and attempt to manipulate your psychological frame of mind. IT DOES NOT WORK IN MOST EVERYONES CASE! Stop thinking a stop loss on your buy-in will assit you, it does not, IMO.
So, I wager $125.00 and lose. I wager another $125.00 and win. Again, the allocation question must come to mind before decision making takes place as far as what to wager on, progression, flat betting, wait it out, etc. What are you going to do with that $125.00 won? Myself, I would like to take $75.00 and put it in my buy in and take the other $50.00 and put it in my pocket. Knowing my skim off the win will go towards a smaller stash starting in my pocket before I get to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method I love so much. But the beginning of play is crucial to me because of the emotional aspect and staying away from false-positives. I want $400.00 or so in my pocket that has nothing to do with my buy in or play. I do not want to get over confident or have any kind of crutch that might alter my way of thinking. Sitting with more chips in front of me that I won or cannot spend, is dangerous, my mind would tend to focus on that, rather than the game itself. Then I would turn into protecting and abiding by what I have to do rather than what I should do.
False-Positives will hurt you and hurt you with your decision making ability you have to have.
Say my next wager was $200.00 and I lost. Fine, move on. Say my following wager was $150.00 and I won. I would put it all in my buy in. Say my next wager was $300.00 and I won. I would take $125.00 and add it to my pocket and put the $175.00 win and the bet back in my buy in stack. I would continue in whatever consistency I was wagering and attempt to get around 50% of my original buy in, back in my pocket and a bit more added to my stack in front of me. Then I would move into some type of true positive progression of 1-3-2-6 or 1-1-3-6-12, etc. I need to be playing with the casino?s money for a true clear mind and a chance to double, triple, 10-fold or 40-fold my buy in. Yes, some buy ins will be totally lost, but they are fractions of my bank roll and at least for the past minimum of 10 years, I have not lost my bank roll without replenishing it from a subsequent win later after the loss, maybe not the subsquent session or two or even three, but before the depleation of my bank roll. My buy in is an allocation of my bank roll, not my bank roll at risk for each session.
What works for me, may not in anyway work for you. But rather than sit there and claim you have a 10 unit buy in and you will wager only until you lose 3 or 4 units is not the way I play or believe anyone can prosper at this game. I tend more to double or triple a buy in and every so often pounce on it, which will allow me to realize a 20-50 times buy in win. I could never do that with a set win stop and loss stop. I have tried and I already discovered that years ago back in Atlantic City and Eastern Connecticut over hundreds and hundreds of trips.
The same with my 1/3rd Money Management Method, it is an allocation. Say I just won $2,000.00. $700.00 would go to my buy in stack, $700.00 in my pocket for absolute cash out and not going back towards gambling ever, and the other $600.00 maybe in reserve for a decision to be made if I lose quickly thereafter?
To me, that is why allocation is very important and necessary. Simply stacking the wins up in front of you will not be the answer, I promise you. Simply putting them in your pocket, likewise, will not be the answer as well. You have no satisfaction if you do the latter. There is no accountability and no plan, you simply have the chips and you will either keep attempting longer and larger sessions with the false-positive that you will either win more or recoup everything. That is what will happen.
Decision making too late. I found this to be one of the most harmful things to a person sitting at the table playing. You will become emotional inside and you will have your frame of mind altered. Do not jump on a run when it is 5 or 7 repeated wins already out there. Especially if you were on the other side. More times than not, that run will end and that is the point your emotions will hurt and hurt you tremendously. The other night when I had the shoe started out of the gate with the 7 Players and one Banker, One Player, One Banker and then 12 straight Players, is a perfect example. The start of a shoe, most were on the Banker. Player won. They stayed on the Banker and some doubled up or tripled up. Then Player again. Then the war was on. After like 5 or 6 Players, some switched sides and it was short lived, the new loss that they never really wanted to wager on and strictly looking to recoup their money, fails them and their insides are now upside down. Then when the 12 run Players came, war was on big time.
A $200.00 beginning wager on that 12 Player streak that was a small part of the win money from the 7 Player streak a few hands before, gives the person the power to overpower the shoe. Not change the shoe, just overpower it. There is a difference and a very large difference. Call it hocus pokus, it is all good. I am talking about reality here, not fantasy, dreams or theory.
But again, allocation will come into play, not a straight continued positive progression, unless you are talking about a 1-1-3 and then stop. Yes, a win but a grind. I do not play that way when it is a give me easy money time. I rather pounce on it with all win money and keep winning and win large and then go back to my same level and plateau prior to the win, once the win stops. If I have a 4 or 8 unit win stop, I will never have realized the wins I had playing this game.
Decision making effects everything in your continued wagers. Be careful, you cannot remove yourself from the game in most situations. If you do, you will be affected without being able to realize the larger wins when the opportunity is there and needs to be taken advantage of. This has the same to do with following other players that are winning, wagering against those other players that are losing, telling yourself anything must happen because of something that already happened or did not happen. All those things. The highest majority of all of those situations will be too late, sure there might be the false positive ones that would encourage you to continue doing those type of things, but all they do is add to your losses, confusion and misalignment with the game itself.
Align yourself with the game, with the shoe and with your knowledge. There is a time and place to align yourself with other players or outside influences, but not every hand or with any consistency.
The so-called psychological cushion. Please take another look at that one. If you are a player that believes this hype, you are gullible. There is no real reason to bring $400 or $500 if you are saying you can only lose or will limit yourself to a $100 or $200 loss. You will not do it, period. If so, bring only the $100 or $200 or whatever number the loss figure can be, that you are willing to lose. The extra amount on the table will only influence you and give you false positives and alter your mind as I have already mentioned here. I do not care what the figures are. IMO, you must have a buy in that is a portion of your bank roll and that buy in is strictly risk capital being allocated. If you are trying for sizable wins rather than a grind everyday method so many swear by (of course without proof, or any other viable showing) you need a bank roll of approximately 20 times your buy-in to have the positive chance for you to employ some kind of money management method such as mine. Once you do, you will be on the way to profitable sessions when they present themselves. But, key is, maintaining your level and plateau with something similar to my 1/3rd method of hold.
You must know what your Level & Plateau of play really is. Once you have figured that out, you can attempt to stay conscious of that and keep yourself on track while consciously employing a money management method that will certainly work in your favor. Without just that, you are at a disadvantage.
If you blow through your bank roll and never got to replenish it with wins from your allocated playing results, something is really wrong with your wagering, parlays, money management method and/or your wagering beliefs and how long or how much you play the game.
Summation. The power and the wholehearted beliefs in the positive results, a great money management method that will allow you to be a better player rather than the longer and longer and larger and larger mentality that will only add to the casino?s bottom line and allow them to legally take your money with a smile.
Hell, guys let me sum it all up for you. Here. My host at one of the local casinos in my region gives me free hotel rooms, free food, free comps at the gift shop, free promo chips and free food court comps for just about anything I want. They are in proportion to my play with a bit of discretion of course by either the host or the senior floor person on duty. But those free things, comps, are an allocation of my play, not my wins or my losses. Yes, large wins and large losses are guidelines for those personnel to go outside of their normal computer-generated comp guidelines which is something like 4 hours of play, at any certain level of wagering, divided by their game hold ratio, will generate XYZ $ of comp. But that is also an allocation as to your play. Playing is the same as being rated, the bottom line is, "Let's see what happens".
Back to my coffee, notes, and opening a package of Twinkies. Later.