Just wondering, how many of you cats figure you could win just three units, each and every day workin with a 100 units lifetime bankroll, hey hey?
Quote from: soxfan on April 11, 2015, 11:50:22 PM
Just wondering, how many of you cats figure you could win just three units, each and every day workin with a 100 units lifetime bankroll, hey hey?
I'd have to answer no, not every day. When I look at my session stats there are da.us when my win rate is below even 51% so flat bet no good. So then the question for me becomes am I up 3 units at some point every session? Most days yes. Every day, probably not.
I'd have a better chance with your prog - higher risk )))
To win three units with a 100 unit bank, a player should only bet the same amount without a progression.
I will need to get back to you on this, being I play only three times a month. It may take some time.
I still don't think that betting flat gonna feed the bulldog if yer hopin to capture just three unit per day. I think a positive progression is the best way to attack it, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on April 12, 2015, 04:02:50 AM
I still don't think that betting flat gonna feed the bulldog if yer hopin to capture just three unit per day. I think a positive progression is the best way to attack it, hey hey.
I am not going to tempt fate at the moment but I think it's likely that you could win 3 units
almost every day. Then I suppose it comes down to what you are prepared to accept as a stop loss and walk away. I suppose you can only find that out through a lot of practice which is what I am doing at the moment.
If you can win 3 units 4 days a week and lose 5 units once. That's still a 7 unit gain. That would be acceptable if the units were high enough to make it worth your while.
There is nothing wrong with a tight game IMO.
cheers
I pose this question for cats who buck up against the dice and roulettes as well as the baccarats, hey hey.
I will let ya know on my next trip late this week. I will flat bet $25 maybe $50 and try for three or more. This will buy few gallons of jet fuel.
To follow up regarding the stop loss. I would never have a stop loss in terms of unit cuz I view that whole bankroll as bein in play. Rather, I would make my stop loss in terms of shoes played and for me that was FIVE shoes, maximum. When I played this style I would walk, up less than three unit, even, or down any amounts and come back the next day/session looking to again capture those THREE unit, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on April 11, 2015, 11:50:22 PM
Just wondering, how many of you cats figure you could win just three units, each and every day workin with a 100 units lifetime bankroll, hey hey?
Piece of cake.
Although there are rare occasions when I would need 108 units.
I'm pretty confident that I could do it.
On most days I would not run into a problem being up 3 units. But, there will be many days that I would need more than 100 or 108 units to achieve a 3 unit profit for the day.
How exactly can I achieve this on a daily bases?
While reading an older ImSpirit I read that if a flat bet loses, a progression will only lose more.
I assume the opposite will be true as well.
Quote from: ezmark on April 15, 2015, 12:05:09 AM
While reading an older ImSpirit I read that if a flat bet loses, a progression will only lose more.
I assume the opposite will be true as well.
That's nonsense, progressions are the only way to come out on top, hey hey.
Quote from: ezmark on April 15, 2015, 12:05:09 AM
While reading an older ImSpirit I read that if a flat bet loses, a progression will only lose more.
I assume the opposite will be true as well.
That's not quite true.
The thing is, if you
know you can win flat betting then a customised progression will definitely win more. Whether you should bother has been the argument for a long while amongst those who know how to win flat betting.
My play has me believing:
-winning 3 units each and every day= plausible
-and with 100 unit bankroll = highly unlikely
-positive progression requires a much larger lifetime bankroll
-even Gr8player's negative progression would require more
-playing 365 days x 3U = 1095units/year and risking only 100U would be bliss
-"averaging" 3U a day is attainable using :soxfan's aggressive progression
Gr8player's trending style
RolexWatch's "hard" play among many others.
-having an open mind leaves me willing to learn more(my bulldog is always hungry)
Quote from: Bac2Bac on April 17, 2015, 04:40:28 AM
My play has me believing:
-winning 3 units each and every day= plausible
-and with 100 unit bankroll = highly unlikely
-playing 365 days x 3U = 1095units/year and risking only 100U would be bliss
-"averaging" 3U a day is attainable using :RolexWatch's "hard" play among many others.
If I could guarantee myself 3 units per day without risking nerve wrecking draw-downs, without the need of a 5 figure bankroll, I would play 500 units. Alas I can't, so don't even go there, also sometimes I lose!
1095 @ 500 = half a mill yearly income, yeah okay I'll be having some of that, if it was more than just a fantasy.
A bankroll of 100 unit should be plenty when usin a positive progression jsut lookin to capture three unit per day. And the good thing about the positive progression is that it acts like flat betting when losing but gives ya that extra oomph in profits when winning. The positive progression willallow you to win with a striks rate under 50 percents, hey hey.
I am still stymied on the 100U lifetime bankroll and being able to win 3U a day.
- I couldn't "guarantee" myself 3u a day
- maybe I could "average" 3U a day and that would be a stretch for me
- I'm thinking more like a 1000U lifetime bankroll
How can it be done with just a 100U lifetime bankroll ?
- I'm beginning to convince myself that I'm the second best Baccarat player in the world
And everyone else is # 1. LOL
Soxfan, Do you favor a 30% to 50% positive progression so that you increase your bet amount about 30% - 50%, similar to ... 3u, 4u, 5u, 7u
When do you take your profits ?
I pose this question because I actually played this style with mostly good result. And yes I did manage to capture my three unit per day, most often, but some days it just wouldn't come. So, my stop loss was in terms of time expenditure and I'd only play five shoes, per day, no more. And the worst drawdown I had to buck up against was 27 unit in a session though I maanaged to cut that deficit in half before I walked outta the joint. And, as far as progression I used positive with first thee bets being 1-1-1.5 unit. That way ya never lose with the w-l outcome and a wwl captures half a unit, to help toward yer three unit win goal, hey hey.
That sound great.
I never tought you could make 3 units each day as the game has negative expectation.
Cheers
Thanks for the clarification soxfan.
I feel better understanding that the 3U a day
win comes about most days not everyday.
Quote from: soxfan on April 18, 2015, 03:20:20 AM
I pose this question because I actually played this style with mostly good result. And yes I did manage to capture my three unit per day, most often, but some days it just wouldn't come. So, my stop loss was in terms of time expenditure and I'd only play five shoes, per day, no more. And the worst drawdown I had to buck up against was 27 unit in a session though I maanaged to cut that deficit in half before I walked outta the joint. And, as far as progression I used positive with first thee bets being 1-1-1.5 unit. That way ya never lose with the w-l outcome and a wwl captures half a unit, to help toward yer three unit win goal, hey hey.
The 11 1.5 is the start of the Guetting and with it a fair chance of getting 3 units. But you need a bit of a run or some small runs. It can easily go nowhere but it doesn't lose much. I have used it. A no pressure bet scheme.
I want to add a consideration. I am a smal-ball player, I mean I play to get 1 to 5 units per shoe.
I try to go for 5 or more if it's a good one but as soon as I lose, I exit that shoe.
its important that your stop loss is adequate, you cannot aim for 3 units when winning and losing 10 in a bad shoe. if you are aiming to 3 you must lose at least 4 max 5, then exit. that way if losing and winning shoes balance, your bankroll doesn't suffer too much!
Some comments:
-1)baccarat has a negative EV.It means that you pay VIG at each hand.
-2)even with an EV=O,casino wins because his bkr is higher than bkr of each player(see google for formula) and because there is a maximum bet allowed
-3)to bet a small unit having a big bkr is pure suicide(see google for formula)
-4)stop win and stop loss must be at the same level (almost no player do that)
-5)play only a few hands per shoe(0 - 5 max)
-6)use bet selection you want(useless but OK for discipline)
-7)use conservative progression(max 5 units)
-8)bankroll 10 units,win goal 1 unit,best compromise for me,but against rule 4)
-9)bkr 100 units,stop win 3 units.Possible,not every session and sure loss middle/long term(see google for formula)...LOL
Trip report.
I flat bet four shoes.
The short of it. I won 3 units early in the first shoe,
I continued to play being I flat bet only $15.
by the end of fourth shoe I lost 4 units.
I didn't bet every hand. usually 6 bets per shoe.
Will see if I can recover and gain 3 units next trip.
Quote from: ezmark on April 21, 2015, 01:43:54 PM
The short of it. I won 3 units early in the first shoe,
I continued to play being I flat bet only $15.
When you're looking to pick up just a few units per session or per day or per trip, then you'd better make those units sizes sufficient to satisfy your personal session/day/trip win goal(s).
It appears that you've just learned that the hard way, Ezmark, when you continued betting after you achieved your 3-unit goal, all because it was "only $15" units.
I'm not necessarily saying that you should raise your unit size. I am saying, however, that I would take a deep look inside of myself, and honestly answer whether it was the win goal you were truly after, or, alternatively, was it the "action". Why else continue betting after hitting your win goal?
That's a great post gr8.....I've had to look inside myself many times to answer that very question.....discipline for me is key so it's something I've had to battle within myself...
I agree with the gr8888888one, and anyone playing this style should be workin with a minimum of a single black chip base unit. And, I also pose this question cuz I just read the Conquer the Casino book and the author come to some interesting conclusion, hey hey.
With a slight edge,the player,using minimum flat bet,wins in the long term.
It's mathematical,not my opinion
You are right when you say that,in spite of the edge,the player must overcome big drawdowns,maybe higher than his bankroll.
The same situation exists when a given table of Roulette of Baccarat loses for several weeks in a row,in spite of positive EV.
But Casinos don't care:their bkr is very huge...
I completely agree with you
Quote from: Trbfla on April 22, 2015, 09:35:17 PM
That's a great post gr8.....I've had to look inside myself many times to answer that very question.....discipline for me is key so it's something I've had to battle within myself...
DITTO. See Gr8? I agree with you a lot!
Quote from: andrebac on April 19, 2015, 08:05:05 AM
I want to add a consideration. I am a smal-ball player, I mean I play to get 1 to 5 units per shoe.
I try to go for 5 or more if it's a good one but as soon as I lose, I exit that shoe.
its important that your stop loss is adequate, you cannot aim for 3 units when winning and losing 10 in a bad shoe. if you are aiming to 3 you must lose at least 4 max 5, then exit. that way if losing and winning shoes balance, your bankroll doesn't suffer too much!
Excellent point.
But don't you think that you really got to keep bets small with a 3 unit win goal? Anything else would put you in the jeopardy you mention above.
Now for fun I ran my last bet selection on 7 shoes trying to figure out how I'd do this. So I first just flat bet and stopped at +3 or -5. The 7 shoes ended up with a 54% total win rate but still lost 4 units overall. Then I ran Guetting on the same selection and it won 18 units (net) on those 303 bets.
So the Guetting was no better than flat bet in this sample but it generally wouldn't do worse and could do much better depending on the WL patterns.
My conclusion for me is that I wouldn't be able to win 3 units a shoe on average this way but the best chance would be to use Guetting with maybe a bit of MM. But I was down 13.4 units (4 shoes) before Guetting finally had a good shoe and won 7.05 units. At that point I was at a 49% hit rate.
Otherwise do this would require using a whole different approach the way I do now using negative progression, occasional parlays and MM along with winning more hands than lose. Very difficult to win when much lower than 48% hit rate.
J