Fooled by Reality--Fooled by Desires
What is so sad, is that we really just fool ourselves.
Be careful what you fail to check at the doors, as you walk through the entrance of the casino! I have written about it before and specifically, I am talking about consciousness and reality. I am not talking about being awake and alert, I am talking about remembering, being 100% conscious of and putting your knowledge and experience right there in front of you, recognizing them and paying extreme attention to them while you are playing. Not an easy task.
The highest majority of the players sit down at the casino table, buy-in and then, 'game-on'. Not much else really happens until the player begins to lose. Then the emotional and the reactions come about. Rather than being constantly pro-active, they become reactive to their deluded minds. Sheer reactions to attempt damage control, getting even, recouping previous losses, trying to place themselves in another player's frame-of-mind and virtually everything except, playing the game the way it should be played.
Problem being, as I see it, is that there are two different forms of, 'Probability', 'Variances' and most importantly, 'Dealing with our Ignorance'. First of all, the highest majority of all players enter a new session with an attitude and belief that they have been there, done that and although handled too many sessions the, 'wrong way', they suddenly convince themselves that everything has changed and really nothing at all has. When they win, they get more obnoxious, more de-tuned and more self-righteous than ever before. Because they have all convinced themselves they are finally on the right track and that special time has come. When really nothing at all did, they just failed to allow themselves to deal with their own ignorance. They also coupled that with locking themselves into uncertainty failing to actually apply themselves to what is about to happen.
Whatever you want to entitle the upcoming shoe presentments, 'Variance', 'Results', 'Randomness', etc., it will happen. It does not matter one bit what side you are wagering on, what side you did not wager on or in fact, if you sat out and did not wager at all. It will happen. That is when the damage occurs the highest majority of the time. Say a player believed what he read on a gambling message board or in his, 'elite pay-per-month internet club' of professional baccarat players that it is wiser to wager on 1's and 2's because they happen the most rather than streaks, patterns, trends and other presentments that also happen. So here this player bought in with several thousand dollars and got into a wagering war with himself of going for 1's and 2's at the baccarat table. Just about the same time he was doing that, the shoe presented 2 long streaks of say 8 to 12 Bankers in a row, followed by the same amount of Players in a row as well. The person repeatedly wagered for the, 'cut' because of the proven statistical odds (The probability) that what just happened, should not have happened at all. But it did. And, it could have been one of several other shoe presentments such as, 1's and 4's, 2's and 6's followed by 3's and 5's with one long streak. Countless other presentments that do come about.
The damage happens when that player has just lost a straight $1,700.00 and has $300.00 remaining of his buy-in. His mind is clouded, his vision is blurred and his frame-of-mind is extremely dangerous. Now, he observed a player that caught the highest amount of the past 20 or so hands and won well over $10,000.00 with just a few hundred on the table, when he sat down. That other person says something like, "Now the cut is coming, it has to because it was too strong", all the while pointing at the score board. So, you are down the $1,700.00 or so, the guy that just won what you desired to and knew you could, is speaking and you are gullible. Here is what you really do not realize, here is what really happens with 'Probability' and the computation of the odds of shoe presentments coming about in baccarat. Probability is not a computation of the odds of making winning and losing hands based upon what has happened or based upon what has not happened. It is actually, accepting the lack of certainty of your knowledge and dealing with the reality of your ignorance. In other words, harsh and real words--you beat yourself, you talked yourself out of wagering what would have won. Simple and done. Of course, that is like saying you are unhygienic and physically unattractive and unpleasant to be around because you are simply gross. But our brains will not allow us to really do that, even if it was factual and 100% true.
Here, let me explain where I am coming from. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability and variance really never continually presents itself as a problem or something that constantly has to be figured out. Yet, within a casino, it always does, 100% of the times we play. Here is where it is complicated on one hand and yet, not really so. IMO, there are really two areas that have to be realized and addressed. 1) Randomness and Non-Randomness, and 2) Certainty and Uncertainty. This is where 100 gamblers will have 99 varying methods to decipher, understand and convince themselves that they are on the right track and will soon be on 'easy-street'.
Simply, 'randomness' is what the shoe will present, or the dice or the slot machine wheels, or anything else within a casino. Randomness is not in any way purely mathematical, neither is non-randomness. If you view randomness and non-randomness as skepticism, rather than attempting to apply and decipher it down to micro-managing levels mathematical interpretations, you will be far better off. As well, 'probability'. It is not in any way purely an engineering theorem and able to be broken down as well, you would be far better off viewing it as a type of applied skepticism.
And the problem most all will not or ever admit, is that when they are wrong according to their methodical and probability deviant, they were merely taking the educated and best guess as to what should have won. When they do wager and won, they build their persona into a larger and more destructive belief that they have it all figured out and that is when the real destruction can do greater damage to their play. Basically, if you really do decide something with uncertainty that was in your belief decided upon with risk-based method, rather than ignorance or outside the textbook mathematical statistical variance, you will be much better off by far and large. Because eventually your eyes will open, your frame-of-mind will realize and you will understand that you capitalized on visions, chance and opportunities rather than science, mathematical and discovering what the multi-billion dollar corporations wished you never did.
The naysayers will label what I just attempted to lay out above, as saying, "being on the right side of luck and chance will only last for so long", etc. Then they will always say, "If you really had something, you would be able to use it over and over and over again without failure, time constraint or losses". Which is not true.
Here, let me break it down a bit further. Chance, being correct, taking advantage of an opportunity, etc., all might seem similar to saying, 'luck'. But, in reality, since no one really knows with mathematical or scientific certainty, what presentments will ultimately come out of the shoe and in what order, mathematical and statistical formulas that define what wagering protocols should be, really do not matter. Why? Because when you are at the casino table, you are at a highly random environment with certain windows of opportunity that can be successfully taken advantage of. Unlike the practice of medicine, engineering or anything else that requires the highest majority of correct results to originate from non-random and non-variant sets of protocols, determining the outcome. And in those endeavors, knowing the protocols will award you the knowledge to have the correct answers. It is virtually the opposite, when we are at the casino table.
The whole other, 'half-way educated' group, maintains a firm belief that there is only a few types of plays that will profit from wagering and those are all elementary in their repetitive writings and one-liners. They are very good at attempting to have everyone believe that there is actually only one or two ways to wager and everything else is 'false belief' by the gambler. They insist that it is all non-rocket science and yet, while they actually will never actually divulge their 'correct and only' ways to properly wager, they really do put on a good show. I would have to put them in the same league as to those women that actual curl up with a bowl of potato chips and soda and get lost in watching those old fashioned soap-operas on television. Great entertainment, even losing yourself in 'make believe' but sorry pal--not reality by any means!
However, what most people know in their hearts--but will never ever admit is that we are into the new-age of info sharing, instant everything and no need for, 'blood-sweat & tears' any longer. It turns out that we aren't very good at distinguishing the knowledge we keep in our heads from the information we find on our phones or computers. As Dr. Wegner and Dr. Ward explained in a 2013 Scientific American Journal article when people call up information through their devices, they often end up suffering from delusions of intelligence. They feel as though, "their own mental capacities" had generated the information, not their devices. "The advent of the 'information age' seems to have created a generation of people who feel they know more than ever before", the scholars concluded, even though "they may know ever less about the world around them". And, it is no different for the gambling crowd. I read and researched on the internet, I know everything you learned over 20 or 25 or 30 years, etc., I know it all, so what?
That insight sheds light on our society's current gullibility crisis, in which people are all too quick to credit lies and half-truths spread through social media by Russian agents and other bad actors. If your phone, tablet, I Pad, or laptop, has sapped your powers of discernment, you'll believe anything it tells you. Which is reality. It's your money, spend it the way you see fit and make yourself comfortable with all the fake reassurance that you give yourself by simply believing what is not true and what makes for 'good print', because in reality, that is all it really is.