+ Register

[alrelax]

Trying to keep it simple and anything said in relation to any of this, can be flipped and turned for a false-positive outcome/possibility.

But anyway, whatever system, wagering thought/plan, etc., a person goes to the table with, will have anyone of only 3 possible things happen.

1) Win
2) Lose
3) Push even

Depending on how long you gamble it might change.  Depending on when you leave, will determine your winnings or your loss.

How much you win or lose is 100% dependent upon the section you are playing and the outcome. 

Some people will correlate a pre-determined chosen plan to employ and yet others will decide and go with what they feel for whatever reasoning when the time comes.  Either one can do all 3 things at anytime.

As far as knowing when to leave.  Again, that is a decision the person has to resolve with gambling experience and other experience and needs mixed in the decision making process.  It really has nothing to do IMO with the system/wagering decision mix whatsoever.

[roversi13]

I agree
It's impossible to win due to progressions.
A given progression works for a shoe and doesn't work for another shoe.
Baccarat is the typical casino game "hit and run".

I'm very surprised that Sputnik,that I consider an expert,doesn't share my position

[21 Aces]

This discussion is getting more and more INTERESTING as we go.  On balance if the net dollar value of money applied to winning hands is greater than that of losing, you win.  Please differentiate between hard and fast application of flat or positive/ negative progression and discretionary. 

My biggest bets last night were in the latest rounds of play. Not preferred at all, but it was a strong formation.

[soxfan]

One can consistently win flat betting, period. 

One can consistently win by varying bet size, period.

One can consistently win with a losing strike rate and by varying bet size, period.

Betting Bank only will be very rough at times.  As stated, there are many shoes that are Player dominated throughout or for significant segments.

Well, two outta three ain't bad, hey hey.

[ADulay]

You pick any method with flatbetting or progression and do the following test to know when you actually are ahead.

Test 100 placed bets 10 times (minimum)
Then look what is the common and average amount you are ahead with all 10 sampels.
If it say 20% then you know that for exampel 90% of all times you will be ahead 20% and should quit playing - that is your true win target and you define what it means being ahead.

Same goes for loses and you will never face the sequense from hell as you will not ride that horce or going down that path.
Look at the 100 placed bets sampels to define the worst and most common drawdowns and you can define the loss limit contra your win target (for all 10 sampels).

Actually, in spite of the spelling errors, that makes a lot of sense and should produce a good "target" for wins and losses in a shoe or group of shoes for those looking for a good starting point to plan for.

If I can find some time I'll run a few hundred hands from the "shoe locker" and see what it looks like with the FB/VDW/2 play.

AD (naming conventions are unique to make sure I'm talking about the same thing three months from now)

[Sputnik]

I agree
It's impossible to win due to progressions.
A given progression works for a shoe and doesn't work for another shoe.
Baccarat is the typical casino game "hit and run".

I'm very surprised that Sputnik,that I consider an expert,doesn't share my position

roversi13 i don't use negative progression i use regression.

Cheers

[alrelax]

IMO and to clarify for others that have little to no experience in playing, you can win with Flat betting.  You can also win with any other 'labeled' wagering decision such as:

*  Doubles
*  1's-2's-3's
*  Repeating Streaks
*  Cut after Natural
*  Stick after Natural
*  Cut after Tie
*  Stick after Tie
*  Cut after any certain total # that won
*  Repeat after any certain total # that won
*  1's and 3's, following or not following

And about a dozen other 'labeled' prevailing OR non-prevailing winning hand.

I hope you can see what I am trying to lay out.  Anything and everything can or may not prevail.
The same thing that prevails whether it is based on the sequence of happening or you are basing it on a pattern or trend involving actual numbers or happenings, it can and may not and it will eventually giving fuel to those that believe in whatever it was that you they were thinking.

So can flat betting win?  Sure.  Can it win consistently?  Maybe, but it all hinges on how long you employ that wagering tactic/decision.  If you go into a brick and mortar casino and flat bet say 2 or 3 times in a section of the shoe that is not strong for whatever reasons, you may be able to pull off winning those 2 or 3 or maybe 4 or so flat wagers a whole bunch of times.  Might be 9 out of 10 trips.  Might be 20 out of 20 trips.  Might be 48 out of 50 trips or even a possible 50 out of 50 trips.  (I said in a section of the shoe that is 'not strong' because IMO that would be the most opportune time/section to perform a quick 2 or 3 wagers of this type in.)

However, I do know that if you flat bet say 1/2 to 70% of the shoe, you will not prevail very well at all. For one reason.   No matter what you do, no matter the time you stay, no matter the strategy or system you employ, the longer you do it--the greater your chances climb with every wagered hand you will lose.

[21 Aces]

Played very tight to looser than a bunch of sailors on shore leave.  End result was win, but it wasn't pretty at times.  All in, probably one of the nights of sickest shoes ever with a lot of opportunity for progression and advanced betting over flat.  HOWEVER flat can still win if selective and sharp.

[UncleBacarrat]

Just came back from Star Casino and found  this forum. This is my humble thought:-

1. Bet flat on Banker in the long run you will lose money because of the House advantage.
2. Bet big when you are losing mean you will lose Big and will Small. You must bet the opposite. Remember do not use your capital to bet Big when you are in negative bankroll (losing money). When you are winning you can use your winning to bet big in order to win more. Your 50 units in a good day if you dare to bet big you might win 200 or more. Even win 200 in a day increase your Bankroll to extra 4 days.
3. Money management is the key to make a living in Baccarat.

Good luck guys!

[Tomla]

good luck playing banker its possible

[ADulay]

Anybody who is anybody and has an Excel program on their computer has already run the "Flat Bet Banker Only" scenario.

It's easy enough to program and you can run hundreds of thousands of shoes/hands all day and night long.

You can instantly rerun it over and over again, millions of hands at a time.  And then instantly see the chart of just how poorly a choice this really is.

The result is still the same.

At least mathematically, and according to Excel, flat betting Banker for every hand is a losing proposition.

Now "selective" Banker only betting is something completely different and not to be confused with Banker Only Every Hand.

AD (I don't subscribe to either theory)

[alrelax]

Lots or wishful thinking!

You can win by flat betting banker sure.

You can also lose.

You can win by flat betting players.

Depends what side is strong.  But one can take off to a solid 25. Hands over the other.

Problem is,  the decision to continue wagering one side over the other.

I have seen 50 plus bankers versus20 or so players . As well equally see 40 to 60 players at times. 

IMO flat betting either side will eventually get you big time.  Not one doubt in my mind!

[Nathan Detroit5]

Pro  or con. Nobody will listen either way.

[alrelax]

I was playing the other night and it started off with 5 bankers, 1 player, 6 bankers, 1 player 8 or 9 bankers 1 player, etc.  almost all continual wagering for the players because they kept saying players had to come out. 

Then when it's heavy players  they all try to wager the banker.

When all we had was the big tables with no score boards the rack would have been emptied on continual bankers with huge presses and the first 3 hands and then just pull down the winning.   But now it's all changed!

[alrelax]

You know, to say you can prevail by wagering anything flat betting without regards to what the shoe is actually doing, is absurd.  Think about it. 

A player can also win by wagering flat on the player side, chop-chop, doubles or waiting for a streak and wagering the repeat after 3 hits in a row or even wagering the cut after three as so many actually do. 

Yes these players win on those types of bets and then they equally lose on those types bets as well.

Last week I hit 5 Fortune 7's in one shoe and all five were contained on 2 lines in the road above left corner to the Big Road.  Since boards are different designed, I am referring to what most boards call the 'marker road' which is normally to the top and left side of the big road, but not always. 3 on one line and the other 2 on another line.  Every time the next hand was coming up to place a decision on those two lines we all placed table max on the F-7 wager.  But, in most other shoes it is rare those five would all be on any 2 lines. But it was and the whole table was hitting the F-7's.  However, to wager on those lines heavy and just for the opinion that the next F-7 will hit and be to the right of the previous F-7's is really poor wagering technique.   

To me, on the highest amount of shoes, there are 'sections' that hold true as to what the shoe will produce.  Not the whole shoe, not shoe after shoe, etc., just 'sections'--maybe 3 or 4 or 5 within each shoe that will be repetitive of the decisions, whether banker-player-chop/chop-doubles or a streak/run, etc. IMO, if you don't adapt to what the shoe is producing, you stand absolutely no chance to deploy a predetermined wagering plan/schedule.