can one really expect to win at this game?
Sure you can convert it to $ but perhaps it's bets to understand it in terms of base units to make all wins equal. Given the different approaches this may not be easy but certainly worthwhile to bring the game to reality.
Anyone want to start? I'll put my two cents in with some real examples later.
J
3+++ units per shoe?
Update - I don't believe that there are killer or wild card shoes that are so much more difficult down the road so I don't view that large sample sizes are required. I play a ridiculously low number of shoes for various time constraint reasons.
In my Baccarat book which was abandoned, I commented about mathematicians and statisticians who talk about long term about tens of thousands of shoes as examples that must be validated.
In truth, on the gaming floor, its the short term that matters. Why think long long term when you cannot beat the short term? 10,000 shoes? 10 shoes a day? that's 3,650 shoes a year. So nearly 3 years of daily trips to the casinos without a break. Sit there for like 10-15 hours a day.
Long term. Over the millions of shoes (everyday every hour in every casinos in the world) add them all up and the results, in total, is random. But specific to a shoe at a particular time in a particular table in a particular casino, the trend is strong. Make your bets and take your wins.
Quote from: Lung Yeh on December 20, 2015, 02:09:23 AM
In my Baccarat book which was abandoned, I commented about mathematicians and statisticians who talk about long term about tens of thousands of shoes as examples that must be validated.
In truth, on the gaming floor, its the short term that matters. Why think long long term when you cannot beat the short term? 10,000 shoes? 10 shoes a day? that's 3,650 shoes a year. So nearly 3 years of daily trips to the casinos without a break. Sit there for like 10-15 hours a day.
Long term. Over the millions of shoes (everyday every hour in every casinos in the world) add them all up and the results, in total, is random. But specific to a shoe at a particular time in a particular table in a particular casino, the trend is strong. Make your bets and take your wins.
I respectfully disagree.
There's no way to guess right without the mathematical edge or statistical long term findings' support.
Show me what should be a strong valuable pattern without long term EV+ confirmations and I'll demonstrate you that per every class of selected bets you'll have the same amount of opposite situations.
Short term results can give the illusion to get a kind of edge but it's just the product of positive variance.
Otherwise it would be too easy to beat the game.
as.
Noted brader. I suppose I did not communicate my views well enough. The validation process of methods for 1) bet selection systems 2) money management philosophies 3) self control approaches (I like The Chimp Paradox) etc necessary for successful Baccarat gaming should surely take place over many many shoes. The user (like me) depends on the parties that validate and then make a choice as to which methodologies, system, philosophies or approaches to adopt.
After that, it's a short term survival mission for the user. Baccarat as in business, is about surviving and thriving in the short term, over many terms that make it long term.
God bless
This is my best analogy for what all those that believe house edge rules for everyone at all times:
The historical average price of all US stocks ever traded is $10.09. Therefore if you want to trade stock profitably, you should never open or close buy any stock above $10.09 and you should never open or close sell a stock below $10.09.
Makes sense!
I believe I already know the answer, but someone contact the UNLV Center for Gaming Research or other group, look at the financials, etc. of what gaming companies are willing to disclose and determine 'how closely does their P&L track house edge'? Me thinks it varies so there are other factors at play.
"How much" is rather subjective. 3 units might pleased some but not for others. But surely 3 units @$5000 is different from 3 units of hundred.
Some shoes could produce, with same bet selection, 9 units flat bet vs 17 units with progression.
Some shoe could harm you 4 units flat bet vs entire BR with progression.
So it'll come back to square one. What BS, MM, and the other things we have talked over and over again.
Quote from: Garfield on December 20, 2015, 05:39:50 AM
"How much" is rather subjective. 3 units might pleased some but not for others. But surely 3 units @$5000 is different from 3 units of hundred.
Some shoes could produce, with same bet selection, 9 units flat bet vs 17 units with progression.
Some shoe could harm you 4 units flat bet vs entire BR with progression.
So it'll come back to square one. What BS, MM, and the other things we have talked over and over again.
I deliberately spoke of units rather than $ for fair comparison. Units per base bet OR per average bet size (ABS) are better measurements to determine how much one can win, IMO.
Whether one plays a progression or not doesn't really seem to change the units per bets placed much. Reason is deep progressions will produce bigger wins AND bigger losses to balance out.
I have three strict rule based methods played with different bet placement and different progressions. Some large, some small. All produce the same 3-4 units per shoe net. I am not saying they would be long term winners. They may very well end up at the EV!
So I am with Lung Yeh here. The short term is relevant, the long term is never reached. I suppose sqzbox can come up with a Z score after about 10,000 bets placed which may give a pretty good chance of avoiding ruin. That's all we have. Units per shoe is a good measurement because it equates with units per hour. That's our reality.
I don't flat bet but still have not been able to achieve greater than about 3 units a shoe. My bet placement is not all mechanical either. That's with very tight betting for the overwhelming part. I'm guessing that Gr8 is in the same ballpark with his 15 bets a shoe.
So I started this thread to look at what's real. Yung Leh just made a good big hit to recoup. He may blame his previous losses on "the chimp" but in reality what is his win per shoe based on his base unit or ABS?
If someone tells me they achieve 3 units a shoe that's believable enough. Anyway, from my trials I come to the conclusion that one must leave a mechanical placement and begin to make subjective bets to have a chance to achieve greater profits and we should keep this in perspective. 3 units a shoe is huge!
The subjective bets are going to be trend bets however one defines such. Still we may not achieve more than 3 units per shoe.
J
My style is good for about ten units per shoes profits. And, I play six shoes per day so my average daily win is equal to about three percents of my lifetimes bankroll of 1800 units, hey hey.
Lung Yeh- Baccarat is designed for all the smart people in the world or at least those who are perceived as being very intelligent which the casino's feast on at will. If you follow the history and where the game originated from you will find out that this is a Royal game for Kings & Kings alone. However if you asked me I would say that to be successful at Baccarat is for the simple and the observant.
Wewin2222
How much does winning mean to you, if it means everything to you like it does to me.....You can't sweat, bleed, or cry enough to find a way to do it. The game of Baccarat can be beat, I have proved it time after time!!!!!
Lung Yeh- I agree with both of your statements, especially the 2nd, very well said!!!!!
Quote from: Jimske on December 20, 2015, 07:17:38 PM
I deliberately spoke of units rather than $ for fair comparison. Units per base bet OR per average bet size (ABS) are better measurements to determine how much one can win, IMO.
J
I wouldn't say that I'm not agree with this. But IMO we played because of the money. This is not a league that we collect points / units to determine who will be the champion. Some have said that unit simply can not bring food to the table.
I used unit to simplify things. To measure how we were doing in the particular shoe / session.
But what I meant was, if one only one 1 unit per shoes but it was @$1k chip, is better than winning 3 unit @$100. I believed the bigger the stake will affect how one played, eventhough with the same approach.
Based on my experience, when my BR was i.e $1000, played $50 to achieve 3 units is rather easy. But when it reached i.e $10k, playing $500 wasn't the same as $50. Don't know why. Maybe that was just me.
Quote from: soxfan on December 20, 2015, 07:42:23 PM
My style is good for about ten units per shoes profits. And, I play six shoes per day so my average daily win is equal to about three percents of my lifetimes bankroll of 1800 units, hey hey.
Good job for you. Since you've mentioned it I was curious to know what method / approach you used to achieve that result. Would you mind sharing it with us? Hey,hey
In my humble opinion, when chips are thought of as real money they are no longer units but money at stake. Chips have no conscience so if you are a unit player which is a smart way to play. Pick your color and play your units by number or whatever MM strategy you like using.
Quote from: Garfield on December 21, 2015, 06:33:06 AMBased on my experience, when my BR was i.e $1000, played $50 to achieve 3 units is rather easy. But when it reached i.e $10k, playing $500 wasn't the same as $50. Don't know why. Maybe that was just me.
Just psychological. Comfort level. You got to train yourself to think interms of percent not money. Easier said than done.
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 21, 2015, 02:26:09 PM
In my humble opinion, when chips are thought of as real money they are no longer units but money at stake. Chips have no conscience so if you are a unit player which is a smart way to play. Pick your color and play your units by number or whatever MM strategy you like using.
Yes, You can't let the size of your bet play you and change your strategy. Playing scared money doesn't work.
Quote from: Jimske on December 22, 2015, 03:00:40 AM
Just psychological. Comfort level. You got to train yourself to think interms of percent not money. Easier said than done.Yes, You can't let the size of your bet play you and change your strategy. Playing scared money doesn't work.
I believed everything about bacc is easier to say than done. :))
I agree that 3 units average win per shoe is huge. Im of opinion that the shoe should be played fron beginning to end to determine if the method will be profitable. I've devoted much of my game time to such endeavor.
Perhaps more importantly, how much should one risk in a session?
In the short term I have reached a moment of complete loss. Complete loss in that if you have a style of play that is performing quite consistently on random days for random amounts of play everything about it random except it pretty much plays tight and the result is flat or up.... HOW? How do you going into a session in a similar manner and just get hammered? What is the best range of number of units as a cut point on the day?
^ This in the context of flat betting one unit with the possibility of some creep into 2/ 3 unit bets (i.e. no heavy positive or negative progression).
Thanks.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 28, 2015, 03:20:33 AM
Perhaps more importantly, how much should one risk in a session?
In the short term I have reached a moment of complete loss. Complete loss in that if you have a style of play that is performing quite consistently on random days for random amounts of play everything about it random except it pretty much plays tight and the result is flat or up.... HOW? How do you going into a session in a similar manner and just get hammered? What is the best range of number of units as a cut point on the day?
^ This in the context of flat betting one unit with the possibility of some creep into 2/ 3 unit bets (i.e. no heavy positive or negative progression).
Thanks.
My definition of MM is stop loss/win. In all my trials I look at the curve of wins and losses to get an idea of the maximum. In every style of play there is going to be limitations as to a general chance of winning more after certain peak or coming back after losing certain peak. There is an example of this that I posted in a graph from Double Triples. So after I get to a certain point of lose or win I will make a few more bets and generally if lose 2 of 3 I just quit. This gives me a chance to possibly do better but allows me to not lose back too much or get too deep in the loss column.
Quote from: Jimske on December 28, 2015, 03:20:00 PM
My definition of MM is stop loss/win. In all my trials I look at...
Thanks for sharing! and I think you posted elsewhere, are you using your own applications for testing? I am looking at Baccarat Buster 2 more closely at this time.
Anyone else? I'm at the point where I should just put in the following:
- Reduce Unit Size: For example if 1 Unit on the day is $100 reduce it to $50 or $25.
- Stop Point 1: Stop playing that shoe and take a required 20-30 minute break.
- Stop Point 2: Stop playing that day.
While in the arena I am not experienced and smart enough to know for sure the reason why am encountering a losing session other than to know that it is happening. There is always more opportunity to play, but like many, I do not have unlimited bank rolls to play with.
Also, I haven't been using paper while playing because I wanted to not do it, but I may start because there are times I lose track of what I should be looking at and I can always make plenty of notes about what I see.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 29, 2015, 01:28:21 PM
Thanks for sharing! and I think you posted elsewhere, are you using your own applications for testing? I am looking at Baccarat Buster 2 more closely at this time.
Anyone else? I'm at the point where I should just put in the following:
- Reduce Unit Size: For example if 1 Unit on the day is $100 reduce it to $50 or $25.
- Stop Point 1: Stop playing that shoe and take a required 20-30 minute break.
- Stop Point 2: Stop playing that day.
While in the arena I am not experienced and smart enough to know for sure the reason why am encountering a losing session other than to know that it is happening. There is always more opportunity to play, but like many, I do not have unlimited bank rolls to play with.
Also, I haven't been using paper while playing because I wanted to not do it, but I may start because there are times I lose track of what I should be looking at and I can always make plenty of notes about what I see.
I have a macro that allows me to put 25 shoes at a time in scorecard format. This allows me to look at different shoe signatures and compare notes using different placements quickly. I don't use Zumma since I have gathered thousands of my own shoes. There is no mechanical method that wins this game as far as I am concerned. Subjectivity (guessing) is required. Each placement has it's nemesis and the nemesis of each is distinct. Compare XXYY with XY betting for instance. They each play differently though each will lose exactly the same over a significant number of shoes -call it ITLR if you want. So you pick a placement and try to match a betting plan to go with it. One that you are comfortable with. Then you test it against a load of shoes to see what the max win/loss is to develop your stops. Still you're going to have a recoup betting method that is robust enough to get "back in the game" without getting hurt too badly (enter an ultimate stop loss). Also you should know what your base shoe win % is so you can get an idea that expectation. E.G. How many shoe will you lose IAR with a 65% shoe win rate or a 85% shoe rate. Helps to know when to recover.
So bet any amount of hands you want. Choose to bet on symmetry, variance, specific pattern, etc. As much as you hear from some (ahem) that making less bets increases your probability to win it just ain't so. The proof of this is none of them can give any performance data. What matters is your plan and your ability to follow it.
I'll say right now that Simple Follow Chop (SFC) is as good as any bet placement.
Finally, your point about reducing unit size and locking up after a win is, IMO, one of the most important aspects of successful play. In a game where we will win half our hands and pay the juice we MUST lock up a profit in order to succeed. Whether grinding or playing deep progressions it requires the same principles.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 28, 2015, 03:20:33 AM
Perhaps more importantly, how much should one risk in a session?
.
This still rather subjective IMO. Aggresive vs conservative will have different answer.
For me, it should be equal or smaller than your expected profit. So if you aim for 6 unit, the amount to risk shouldn't be bigger respectively.
That's the theory, I supposed.
But, I experienced that even after the loss went beyond our stop loss, sometimes I was too stuborn to back up. It's easier to say "walk as a loser" than to do it.
I guess sometimes the biggest enemy is our mind, if you know what I mean. >:D