OK. Those that follow my posts are aware of my recent winning streak; I hadn't lost a session in quite some time. And those same people would also know, through my posts, that I was concerned about the sustainability of that streak; so much so that I even lowered my betting units in order to lessen any damage from the impending correction. My bet selection process is a good one, but it ain't that good, and so the downward correction was imminent. Well, witness this past trip:
On Thursday afternoon's session, I could not win a hand. Bad beat after bad beat, I simply could not win a hand, losing the first 8 out of 9 bets I made (at one point, 7 losses in a row!). Now, even with the "expected/imminent" downward correction, let me tell you, it ain't fun and it is frustrating. Prepared is one thing, but losing is another, and always hurts. I tried battling through it, but every time it looked as if my plays might be picking up, back down they went. As did my session bankroll...as I finished with a 20-unit loss. (Sidenote: I buy in for 20 units, and that is, however rare, my absolute max loss limit.)
That, my friends, is alot for me; as you know, I always err on the side of caution. I could have, and SHOULD HAVE, quit the session when I had battled back to a minus 5, but no, I am so used to the battle and so used to skirting (read: getting back to "even") these bad sessions that I played on, but it was simply not meant to be. So, a minus 20 it is, and that was that.
Well, now, let's get on to my "loss eradication" strategy:
You guys know that I play a "variance" game. My variances are proven stats, and I trust in them fully. So, with that in mind, how do I handle that 20-unit blowout from earlier that day? Buy ramping up my units size THREE-FOLD. That's right, 3 times the size of my units at the prior session. I felt there simply ain't no way I'm going to go any further than the 11-below (I lost 11 more bets that I had won on that losing session), and so now the time is ripe for recoup. But, I still didn't want to have to exceed my normal win goal strategy; so the only answer was to ramp it up. And ramp it up I did:
(Sidenote: In fact, I was so confident in my upward-variance correction at this next session, that I bought in for only 10 units, as these were much-larger units than I'd normally play with.)
OK. So what do you think happened on Thursday night? Well, I bet you didn't guess this: I didn't play. Oh, don't get me wrong, I went to the tables. In fact, at one point, I had my money and my player's card in hand, ready to buy in. But, I never pulled the trigger. I simply didn't like what the shoes looked like, and I simply wasn't "feeling it". And, maybe, just maybe, Thursday wasn't my day. So, after 2 full hours of simply watching, I called it a day, and left. I would play, however, with no hesitation, on Friday (yesterday):
Well, things started rather well. I won my first two bets, and the first 4 out of five. But then lost a few, and actually, at one point in the session, I was down 2 units. But, I proceeded to win the last 7 bets I made, and the first 2 of those bets were in "2-ville" of my Gr8Player's Progression. All said and done, I won 6 units and colored up.
Total loss for the trip: $100. A stinkin' hundred bucks. Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me. So, bottom line: I effectively "eradicated" that 20-unit loss from the day before. Done and done.
And that is the name of my variance-based game: Loss Eradication.
You see, my friends, when you play a mode of game that can effectively eliminate those rare but still nasty losses, ALL YOU ARE LEFT WITH IS PURE PROFIT ON YOUR EASIER, WINNING SESSIONS. (Sidenote: Well, wait, not ALL of those profitable sessions are pure profit, as this last one was for recoup purposes only, hence the much-higher unit size. But, still, certainly MOST of my winning sessions are, in fact, for pure profit, because, usually, I can battle back from the more difficult ones, and quit at either even or a very minor loss.)
Look, losses happen. Nothing much we can do about it, so best learn to accept it. But, that said, if one wishes to get the better of this game, over the long run, one NEEDS an EFFECTIVE LOSS-ERADICATION strategy. And, in my humble opinion, that can only come with a just-as-effective VARIANCE PLAY strategy. Knowing your limits...both on the up- AND the down-side...is both vital and imperative. For only then can you manipulate your bet sizing to your ADVANTAGE.
And, as always, I wish it for all of you.
Before anyone else might bring it up to counter my "Loss Eradication" strategy, let's bring to light the "Gambler's Fallacy" theory:
Gambler's Fallacy says, in a nutshell, that pretty much nothing is ever "due". That it is a grave mistake to believe that the past could ever be helpful in predicting the future, and that those that believe so are doomed to eventual failure. In a nutshell, that is the essence of the "Gambler's Fallacy" theory; that "chasing losses" from the past is fruitless in the prediction of future results.
OK. I get that. It certainly does make alot of sense. For the majority of players, and the majority of modes and/or styles of play, I can certainly understand the "Gambler's Fallacy" application.
BUUUTTT (oh, c'mon, you knew there'd be a "but"), that all said, I am of the firm opinion that my play is NOT applicable to any "Gambler's Fallacy". You see, my friends, I do not "blindly bet into" any past results, neither failures (losses) nor successes(wins). Rather, I play into my statistics. My betting, and my "adjustments" thereof, both bet selection- and bet sizing-wise, is all calculated within certain parameters of my statistics and corresponding variances. Let me repeat that most important distinction: My betting, and my "adjustments" thereof, both bet selection-and bet sizing-wise, is all calculated within certain parameters of my statistics and corresponding variances.
And that, my friends, should never and can never be neither construed nor confused with any "Gambler's Fallacy" argument.
Thusly, my style of play, my patient and disciplined and consistent and statistically-sound style of play will stand the test of time. And that's the only test I care about; the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul.
I choose to both approach and play this game much like the casino does; over the long term, with the statistics and variances that are PROVEN to work and provide an advantage. And when one has the advantage, then time becomes their ally.
Quote from: gr8player on October 17, 2015, 08:25:40 PM
Thusly, my style of play, my patient and disciplined and consistent and statistically-sound style of play will stand the test of time. And that's the only test I care about; the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul.
Golden words :applause: & thanks for taking the time to share / post your experiences :nod: :thumbsup: We all learn from each other; both from the positive as well as the negative happenings and of course how others have dealt with it.
It's just like you said: the
only test to care about is precisely what you mention. At least for the mature players who are way past the other not-so-important things.
The gr88888888888one puts the puck in the net again, hey hey.
Thanks to both Victor and the Soxster for your kind acknowledgements. Always appreciated. We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success. Stay well, all.
Quote from: gr8player on October 18, 2015, 12:48:52 PM
We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success.
How could that possible be? I mean seriously "long term success", I can give you 250,000 reasons why lunacy prevails. Just like normal everyday people in life, once you talk about bet selection and it's whoa WTF.
Quote from: gr8player on October 17, 2015, 08:25:40 PM
the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul. < simply not possible in this case
I choose to both approach and play this game much like the casino does; over the long term, with the statistics and variances that are PROVEN to work and provide an advantage. And when one has the advantage, then time becomes their ally.
What is it coming to? You can post anything without really posting anything!
Long term? Already covered that one, surely an embarrassment that you mention 'long term'. Oblivious to the long term damage and conveniently masked by the small wins today, very very typical of a habitual gambler.
Proven statistics and variances? How so, how are they proven? Without any proof at all, they are hardly proven, rather more empty word posted on a gambling forum, just like GG for over 10 years. Who proved it, who verified they were proven? We only see what we want to see when comes to gambling, lo and behold anybody who tries to tell us otherwise, that's when the psychosis is easily diagnosed, I've met my fair share of friendly intelligent people (successful outside of the casino, never in it), then it comes to bet selection and it is off the radar scale. However, they need to believe, desperate to believe, so desperate they frequent gambling forums seeking approval, affirmation of their blindness. Nothing is proven until you actually prove it, which you won't (can't) and it doesn't need a physiatrist to be able to identify the bigger picture and see what it really is.
What's sad, is that there exists and audience for this BS, which says less about them than the OP.
Quote from: gr8player on October 18, 2015, 12:48:52 PM
Thanks to both Victor and the Soxster for your kind acknowledgements. Always appreciated. We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success. Stay well, all.
??? Victor doesn't even play any more if I'm not mistaken (feel free to correct me, but I get the impression he doesn't), sensibly focusing on his scripting tasks. If gambling was successful back then, I guess he would still be playing, not exactly rocket science.
Sorry Vic not particularly having a go at you, but you of all people know the score. I'm sure it was never your intent to create a gambling forum for the sake of waffle, rather you want members to post topics that others can test, run sims and the rest. Friendly or otherwise, every wise individual should be aware of the damage of this addiction which manifests itself in so many ways, masked only by disillusionment.
Vic you are a smart man, you use to post roulette options that I never knew existed, yet you gave it up, what does that tell us? Here is another example, nobody has probably studied Roulette more than Turbo Genius, I mention TG cos' there is a link to another site where he was going to PROVE, you can use Maths to beat a maths game. Nice introduction, all will be revealed in the follow-up, well guess what, there was never any follow-up
Vic you are assisting the perpetration of a myth, whilst knowing the physiological issues and needs that can arise from long term gambling. Now if somebody posted, "hey what do you think of this, bet, bet, skip, skip, etc, etc" or "I've won xx amount over the the last xx sessions, by doing xyz", then sure it may be beneficial to the community as you like to call us. the alternative is merely providing an avenue for those in denial, also those so deeply buried, consumed by it, they better not look back.
Sincerely all the best, and hopefully the typing lock-up will be resolve soon (shame you removed the avatars, they were fun :-)
Rolex,
C'mon. Give it a break for a few days.
You can't possibly be that negative all the time.
AD
Quote from: ADulay on October 19, 2015, 12:49:24 AM
Rolex,
C'mon. Give it a break for a few days.
You can't possibly be that negative all the time.
AD
Andy aka seahog aren't there any scammers that are in need of a moderator (or even a gate-keeper) on the internet, or are we now all wiser to it?
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on October 19, 2015, 12:46:01 AM
Now if somebody posted, "hey what do you think of this, bet, bet, skip, skip, etc, etc" or "I've won xx amount over the the last xx sessions, by doing xyz"
I certainly have posted about "bet, bet, skip, skip"; I authored a thread regarding virtual losses, which is the very essence of "skip, skip, bet, bet".
And, again, I certainly have posted about "I've won xx amount over the last xx sessions, by doing xyz"; heck, part of that is right here in this very thread, where I explained my "Loss Eradication" strategy, and how I went about it.
Look, Johno/Rolex, you've simply got to try to accept the fact that you still have a lot to learn about this game, especially as it pertains to getting the better of it over the long term. Frankly, your absolute naivete regarding the approach to this game, exactly what is does (and does not) take to get the better of it, is absolutely astonishing. You, my friend, have learned absolutely nothing over the years....absolutely nothing. There are other followers of my posts and enthusiasts of my method of play that are benefiting so much more than you are; all because you refuse to learn, and you refuse to acknowledge that I, gr8player, the man you just love to hate, hold the keys to true, long term success at this game and yes, I DO prove it with each one of my posts.
What, exactly, do you want from me? My actual bet selection process? Why should that matter to you; you're well-aware that they all resolve to 50/50. My money-management? My Gr8Player's Progression is available freely over the 'net. My posts are clear as to how to build a mode a play that will beat this game over the long term, and there are countless players benefiting from such insight. Except you:
No, you'd rather get nothing for yourself but jealously and envy....it's so obvious that it hurts. Pity, really. Rather than learn to seriously improve your game, like so many other members over the years have from me, you'd rather mope and pout, pout and mope. Well, my friend, everyone is sick of it. So either get on board or hit the skids, the choice is all yours.
You posted nothing of relevance on the virtual loss thread other than to spout your stats are proven, how so?
Your bravado in posting you win less than 10 units per session, what does that mater to anybody else when there are no details, nothing that helps anybody else replicate your "long term" success [oxymoron a things considered]. Veteran players are all aware of the buzz that winning provides and the need to take to the internet to share the buzz, some eventually see through the need and move on [grow]. Have you ever questioned why and where this need comes from, the need for admiration without actually revealing anything and let's not go down the gr8 progression route, you have since stated you don't even use it. Does it make you feel famous that it shows up in google searches? It not even original, is this what floats your boat and fulfils the empty vacuum that exists inside of your psyche, that your 'too far gone' to appreciate it even exists!!!
QuoteWhat, exactly, do you want from me? My actual bet selection process?
Quit the BS regarding 'stats being proven', either shut up and put up, prove aren't just another deluded punter I've had the displeasure in engaging the real world. I suggest the majority of people whom read these boards don't play. Rather consisting of those that no longer play due to the damage gambling has done, but want to keep a toe in the water looking for something that may help them recoup, keep themselves involved in a safe way with gambling and the newbies looking to learn, thinking they can achieve something playing games of chance that nobody on the planet has ever achieved other than the "great player from NY", please don't make me laugh. You offer no assistance to the latter whatsoever, because it is all hush hush, a big secret, a myth.
Given the fact there really are no pointers, clues or otherwise only meaningless unverified claims, one has to question what is the motive here? Obviously your own need stands out plain and simple, because there is little else. Then the fools cling on to the myth they might be able to replicate your self-claimed success, without knowing a damn thing about it, or even if it is true, or perhaps they just have to lose 250k before they can get started. On that final point, I have no envy and am not jealous in any way (more unsubstantiated deluded thinking on your behalf) , that I assure you, if you were face-value you wouldn't have turned down the $10k offer that was posted on the WoV forum by a fellow member.
I realize why your bravado posts are shall we say
limited, it's because you don't want to embarrass yourself, what you do is a
crock of sh1t nonsense, you know it, I know it, how you handle it at the tables, is up to the individual.
You haven't posted anything that anybody could take and proceed further in over 10 years (i.e test or trial), I don't expect that to change any time soon, so I suggest you take a long hard look at your self and ask yourself why,
I already know the answer, a few others have slowly cottoning on and unfortunately the desperate will remain just that.
There are more lost souls out there than you can shake a stick at, which is why GR8 will always be a winner, people need to believe.
To me it's simply two people feuding who haven't put up anything on the board. One talks about a money management that wins him wonders but never shows what it is and another talks about the betselection that is doing him good but doesn't put up. Two men in the same boat.
Quote from: Missmusibat on October 19, 2015, 05:31:22 PM
To me it's simply two people feuding who haven't put up anything on the board. One talks about a money management that wins him wonders but never shows what it is and another talks about the betselection that is doing him good but doesn't put up. Two men in the same boat.
Really! Just pointing out the obvious, incidentally I have posted many bet selection techniques, both here and elsewhere. As for my MM, yes I haven't posted it here, but has been posted and fully explained, but you would need to point me to any wondrous claims that were posted not for the benefit of the "great one". However that is not really the point, I refrain from posting hot-air waffle week in week out, while mentioning the MM I use or claiming success using it without actually revealing anything about it.
On the other hand we have here, somebody claiming some mystical voodoo is statistically proven!!! Winning few units here and there for what purpose, are we suppose to swoon, do we offer our admiration and congratulations for something we know absolutely nothing about, are we that stup1d to believe everything that is written on a gambling forum of all places, catering to the psychological deficient.
Quote from: Missmusibat on October 19, 2015, 05:31:22 PMTwo men in the same boat.
Sometimes, they switch sides on each other's boat for a while. But never on the same boat at the same time. The gambler's truth is elusive.
Quote from: gr8player on October 17, 2015, 05:49:30 PM
Total loss for the trip: $100. A stinkin' hundred bucks. Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me. So, bottom line: I effectively "eradicated" that 20-unit loss from the day before. Done and done.
And that is the name of my variance-based game: Loss Eradication.
Yup, nice to get losses back. Good for you. We all have to recoup losses. If we don't then we end up losing long term. (sidebar: is it my computer or does this site always freeze while typing?) So isn't that kinda like everybody's game? It can be done in different ways but unless you plan to win a lot more hands than lose you're gonna have to increase your bet, right?
I get what Rolex is saying about proof and stats. There is none (excepting asymbacc of course). Again saying the same old thing - it's a guessing and betting game. When you talk about provable stats and variance then unless you're willing to share the proof why not just make a trip report and be done with it?
In generic terms unless you're playing a completely mechanical placement and betting game you basically start with a structure based on existing past bias and choose a betting style. When it goes south you make switches to the placement and possibly bet style to recoup. If it doesn't work out you cut your losses. Unless you're like the typical gambler trying to make a huge kill you know what your limit of losses tend to be and recognize that.
If the shoe is conforming to your placement style then you make some bigger bets hoping to maximize a profit. Again, you should recognize general high limits and quit that shoe at some general high point.
The above is just the basics of trending. I play a trend and grind game. I win most shoes and sessions. Not a lot. Sometimes I kick myself for getting out too early. Reason I do because generally after I quit I sit and record the rest of the shoe.
IMO if you play enough you should be able to recognize certain trends that ocurr in this game and attempt to make money on them. Many shoes just non-conforming so you got to just get out hopefully with a small win. If you play this way.
As far as bet selection goes pick anything you want or prefer. Know it's nemesis so you can see the game clearly and maybe back off a bit when you see the nemesis start to develop. I don't like bet selections that make it difficult to follow the trend
Quote from: Missmusibat on October 19, 2015, 05:31:22 PM
To me it's simply two people feuding who haven't put up anything on the board. One talks about a money management that wins him wonders but never shows what it is and another talks about the betselection that is doing him good but doesn't put up. Two men in the same boat.
Never on this planet am I in the same boat.
Well let's see;
I received more "likes, kudo's, points" on the defunct Bac-Labs site than anybody else, not generated by posting hot-air.
Did post a fair amount of systems including staking plans on Baccarat-Forums.
Made more posts in the Baccarat section of GG including systems, trips reports than anybody else.
Operated two private boards, where
"no bloviating" actually meant just that.
[oops nearly forgot the old VIP site, I had a big presence there as well, back in the Fibonacci day]
Recently started two threads on here, which kind confirmed I wasted my time
so pulled them, it simply doesn't work when people are not on the same wave-length and what you post goes straight over people's heads because they are locked in some time-warp mentality with failed bet-selection methods that have been explored to death over the last century.
My MM is complex and more of a concept than "this is how much you should bet next", it is difficult to understand without face to face explanation. Generally invites a barrage of endless questions, a road I do not wish travel.
I tend not to suffer fools lightly and discussing Baccarat can be like pulling teeth, too many opinions, shrouded in BS, no advantage to be had, other than defining the losing pattern. Mathematically everything resolves to a 50-50 state, impossible to escape from. Endless bulk testing of any method produces expected negative results, interspersed with varying degrees of variance, has all been done to death already, nothing else to discuss other than who can swing their manhood farthest!
Because nobody can be right nor wrong, generates endless debate which is good for internet traffic and little else something which has been
proven over the last decade. However when people have been spouting the same nothing for over 10 years, the paper wears thin. I think of the sad fool that still carries the same need / urge for attention all this time (thankfully I like to think I was wise enough to grow out of that part). I mean who in their right mind joins JP's board with the moniker 'GR8', having, I guess recently at the time dumped $250k into the casino coffers? "Hey I lost a quarter of a million bucks playing Baccarat and I'm going to call myself Great Player" and over a decade later, considers himself 'a long term winner'. Dear God, do you people need a magnifying glass to see the sick reality here. If the said person was posting something relevant, something that wasn't a rehash of what they have been saying for the last 10+ years, I'd say cool let's hear it. But it's nothing new, nothing relevant, the said person is so desperate for recognition he cuts and pasted a 10yr old post from GG and put it on the WoV site like it was brand new, shortly afterwards was asked to leave. Not before an individual offered him a $10k challenge (a rabbit head-lights moment), yep you guessed it, his game is so great he ran a mile, meanwhile the endless vainglory continues here.
It's time for the
self anointed great-player to change the record, quit all the self-aggrandizement, quit commenting in other threads just for the purpose of letting everybody know he won 3.00025 units and post something relevant that others might like to consider "is this for me or not" or "I might try this myself. Personally I couldn't care if he keeps his proven method a mystical secret, but sure could do without the unsubstantiated self-admiration...
QuoteThere is none (excepting asymbacc of course). I must have blinked while reading that post Again saying the same old thing - it's a guessing and betting game. When you talk about provable stats and variance then unless you're willing to share the proof why not just make a trip report and be done with it?
And pigs may fly, a trip report in great player's world consists of [case in point] I made 6.025 units and played 1.45 shoes, I'm a long term winner, your friend, wishing you the best of it, blah blah ad nauseam The End. Spare me the f****kin pain....
Time for the Guinness and cashew, again, hey hey.
Quote from: gr8player on October 17, 2015, 05:49:30 PMA stinkin' hundred bucks. Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me.
I'm sure you do (did), didn't you once complain on the forums about how important your comps are to you, because you need the casino to provide free accommodation after forking out for a hire car, paying toll charges, gas. Yet
here you is, handing over $100 dollar tips!!!! I can also play this game, let's give it a go, wait while I put on my Alrelax hat; only last week I enjoyed a terrific Lobster meal, the four of us, it was so succulent, beautiful, comp'd of course and because of that I left a
$300 dollar tip, I had to pick up the champaign tab, I didn't mind, it was just a fraction of
what I had won earlier in the evening, we had a 'whale'
[hint] of a time. Get my drift?
[warning this post contains irony, for those too dense to see it]...
Quote from: gr8player on October 19, 2015, 03:34:05 PMRather than learn to seriously improve your game, like so many other members over the years have from me
:P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P
QuoteWell, my friend, everyone is sick of it. So either get on board or hit the skids, the choice is all yours.
To borrow one of your
infamous GG quotes, when you felt you weren't getting enough attention
"it would be a shame if I left" :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P
Psst, would you like the link?
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on October 19, 2015, 05:15:43 PM
You posted nothing of relevance on the virtual loss thread other than to spout your stats are proven, how so?
Your bravado in posting you win less than 10 units per session, what does that mater to anybody else when there are no details, nothing that helps anybody else replicate your "long term" success [oxymoron a things considered]. Veteran players are all aware of the buzz that winning provides and the need to take to the internet to share the buzz, some eventually see through the need and move on [grow]. Have you ever questioned why and where this need comes from, the need for admiration without actually revealing anything and let's not go down the gr8 progression route, you have since stated you don't even use it. Does it make you feel famous that it shows up in google searches? It not even original, is this what floats your boat and fulfils the empty vacuum that exists inside of your psyche, that your 'too far gone' to appreciate it even exists!!!
Quit the BS regarding 'stats being proven', either shut up and put up, prove aren't just another deluded punter I've had the displeasure in engaging the real world. I suggest the majority of people whom read these boards don't play. Rather consisting of those that no longer play due to the damage gamb
Have to agree with Watch in this case. Ain't nothing from GR8 on this. Talking round in circles only. LOL
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on October 19, 2015, 01:16:56 AM
Andy aka seahog aren't there any scammers that are in need of a moderator (or even a gate-keeper) on the internet, or are we now all wiser to it?
Rolex,
Sorry. I don't understand the question. It made no sense.
I can hazard a guess that it was pointed in my general direction.
Who is wiser to what?
Try to be a bit clearer when making stupid statements.
AD
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on October 19, 2015, 05:15:43 PM
You posted nothing of relevance on the virtual loss thread other than to spout your stats are proven, how so?
I suggest the majority of people whom read these boards don't play. Rather consisting of those that no longer play due to the damage gambling has done, but want to keep a toe in the water looking for something that may help them recoup, keep themselves involved in a safe way with gambling and the newbies looking to learn, thinking they can achieve something playing games of chance that nobody on the planet has ever achieved other than the "great player from NY", please don't make me laugh. You offer no assistance to the latter whatsoever, because it is all hush hush, a big secret, a myth. <<<<<(Rolex describes himself exactly)
You simply described yourself to a 'tee'. You fit the mold and all you did was describe and explain yourself. You are the biggest stuff talker and the number 1 poster that is the most vindictive and worthless (only posting negative innuendoes and vindication), that is it. You remind me 100% of the many players at the casino that lose their initial buy ins. Go tot he ATM a couple times and sit back down. What for their so called magical moments. Then wager. LOL. That is when I wager opposite what they do because it is a sure win. Judging from what the owner of the board posted about private rooms and the such and no longer an open forum, heck---all you have to do is wake up in the morning and go to the bathroom mirror and demean yourself. You hang out here and write these long worthless dialogs of dribble and senseless innuendoes. Like I said, you described yourself to a 'tee' with the explanation of the type of players that are members here. Which includes you!!! A huge laugh that totally reflects of yourself in every way, shape and form. :cheer:
Quote from: Jimske on October 19, 2015, 09:39:36 PM
Yup, nice to get losses back. Good for you. We all have to recoup losses. If we don't then we end up losing long term. (sidebar: is it my computer or does this site always freeze while typing?) So isn't that kinda like everybody's game? It can be done in different ways but unless you plan to win a lot more hands than lose you're gonna have to increase your bet, right?
I get what Rolex is saying about proof and stats. There is none (excepting asymbacc of course). Again saying the same old thing - it's a guessing and betting game. When you talk about provable stats and variance then unless you're willing to share the proof why not just make a trip report and be done with it?
In generic terms unless you're playing a completely mechanical placement and betting game you basically start with a structure based on existing past bias and choose a betting style. When it goes south you make switches to the placement and possibly bet style to recoup. If it doesn't work out you cut your losses. Unless you're like the typical gambler trying to make a huge kill you know what your limit of losses tend to be and recognize that.
If the shoe is conforming to your placement style then you make some bigger bets hoping to maximize a profit. Again, you should recognize general high limits and quit that shoe at some general high point.
The above is just the basics of trending. I play a trend and grind game. I win most shoes and sessions. Not a lot. Sometimes I kick myself for getting out too early. Reason I do because generally after I quit I sit and record the rest of the shoe.
IMO if you play enough you should be able to recognize certain trends that ocurr in this game and attempt to make money on them. Many shoes just non-conforming so you got to just get out hopefully with a small win. If you play this way.
As far as bet selection goes pick anything you want or prefer. Know it's nemesis so you can see the game clearly and maybe back off a bit when you see the nemesis start to develop. I don't like bet selections that make it difficult to follow the trend
Spot-on, Jimske, as per usual.
(And, believe me, it wasn't easy to spot it this morning, what with Johno/Rolex going on one of his "I'm obsessed with gr8player" binges yet again, and posting his pure nonsense behind every one of my threads in this forum. Wow....that's very obviously a man with some deep, deep issues....he'd rather attack me than add anything of value of his own. Ever wonder why? Could it be because he HAS NOTHING OF VALUE to add?! He knows ONLY how to attack me....hmmm, I wonder....how much does the casino pay you off for that?!)
Anyhow, back to business....insightful post, Jimske; those that trend and those that grind know it all too well. That said, there are two points I'd like to expound on:
1.) "Sometimes I kick myself for getting out too early....after I quit I record the rest of the shoe".
I would ask of you, Jimske: Why? Why wait around and record the results AFTER you've decided to terminate the session? Could it be that you are seeking affirmation of your decision, and are hoping to see that your plays would have lost? I must tell you, I do not like that idea, for nothing good can come of it, IMHO.
The results BEFORE I sit down to play do matter to me, but the results after I terminate the session do not. This game is tough enough, and our "entry/exit" strategies are certainly a part of that; the last thing I want to find myself doing at the table is "second-guessing" myself. With that in mind, whenever I've decided to end the session, I color up and leave.
2.) Variance
Plainly stated, I think your play involves betting substantially more hands that I do. I think the reason for that is, again simply stated, you prefer to be "onto more trends" than I do. (I have a couple in my preferred bet selection process; I believe you have more than that.) That all said, I am of the firm opinion that by "concentrating" my efforts on only those couple of plays puts me in better control of my variance statistics. And you know me well enough, Jimske, to know the importance that I place on variance statistics; for bet selection processes will resolve almost equally (I say "almost" because virtual losses WILL boost their overall strike rates for me) BUUTTT the "bet size manipulations" that accompany true variance stats will see me winning more money when I win than I lose when I lose, over the long term.
But I simply cannot conclude this post without highlighting the fact that, for the most part, Jimske's post is spot-on....not just for me, but for any serious trender/grinder. His "IMO if you play enough you should be able to recognize certain trends that occur in this game and attempt to make money on them. Many shoes just non-conforming so you have to just get out hopefully with a small win. If you play this way." There's no IF about it, Jimske; you and I both know what it takes. We don't need the same bet placement strategy and we don't need the same money management process to know what true trending/grinding requires....the patience and the discipline and the consistency.
Stay well, my friend.
Quote from: ADulay on October 20, 2015, 03:54:48 AM
Rolex,
Sorry. I don't understand the question. It made no sense.
I can hazard a guess that it was pointed in my general direction.
Who is wiser to what?
Try to be a bit clearer when making stupid statements.
AD
It made a lot of sense, the only thing stupid is you trying to weasel out your past close association with Scammers.
Whoop-de-do Rolex Watch has been banned from posting on these forums, my heart is well and truly broken (just like this forum to be honest, must be the worst out there, I hope Vic gambled better than he can code, obviously not!). Now the psycho clown great-player can have a free rein in bamboozling the gullible with his clap-trap, do your thang and ban this account too, there are a few more..
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 01:36:02 PM
(And, believe me, it wasn't easy to spot it this morning, what with Johno/Rolex going on one of his "I'm obsessed with gr8player" binges yet again, and posting his pure nonsense behind every one of my threads in this forum. Wow....that's very obviously a man with some deep, deep issues....he'd rather attack me than add anything of value of his own.
B0ll0cks
It's disturbing that you take so many of my phrases and nuances and try and past them off a your own, then throw it back at me. Let's not forget the email you sent me many years ago stating you bet $10 units, but on the boards it's $400 units. You are defiantly a prized crank Roberto, tell me how can somebody who has lost $250,000 consider themselves to be a long term winner, fool?
And it was really shocking Vic was in agreeance with the "long term winner" quips. Maybe Vic didn't know, just like he didn't know about Seahogs past such as the years of endless promotion of Ellis and his cronies at BTC over on the defunct Baccarat-Forums web-site before making him a "mod". Or simply a case of 'head-bury-sand' & the world is a beautiful place, despite losing a quarter of a million
(GR8's claim not mine). Well done Victor for helping GR8 continue perpetuating the myth and providing an outlet for somebody who is clearly delusional. Maybe you should put yourself in his shoes to understand why he can't face the truth, has to continue the charade, desperately needs the admiration and how you would have coped.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 01:36:02 PM
1.) "Sometimes I kick myself for getting out too early....after I quit I record the rest of the shoe".
I would ask of you, Jimske: Why? Why wait around and record the results AFTER you've decided to terminate the session? Could it be that you are seeking affirmation of your decision, and are hoping to see that your plays would have lost? I must tell you, I do not like that idea, for nothing good can come of it, IMHO.
LOL. 1. I keep all full shoes and not partial shoes so if I sit I can record the shoe. 2. Where am I going to go? Wait around for another spot at another table to start a new shoe? 3. I got pretty good discipline. Doesn't really bother me what happens next. When I say I kick myself it's just a joke. Just as likely to be happy I quit! 4. Occasionally I will watch the shoe and pick spots that I think will win. My rule of thumb if I do this is stop if lose 2 of 3.
Quote2.) Variance
Plainly stated, I think your play involves betting substantially more hands that I do. I think the reason for that is, again simply stated, you prefer to be "onto more trends" than I do. (I have a couple in my preferred bet selection process; I believe you have more than that.) That all said, I am of the firm opinion that by "concentrating" my efforts on only those couple of plays puts me in better control of my variance statistics. And you know me well enough, Jimske, to know the importance that I place on variance statistics; for bet selection processes will resolve almost equally (I say "almost" because virtual losses WILL boost their overall strike rates for me) BUUTTT the "bet size manipulations" that accompany true variance stats will see me winning more money when I win than I lose when I lose, over the long term.
That's right. I can use 4 bet placements within one shoe. But the variance thing I frankly don't get.
I know what my Variance (W/L stats) are. They are about the same as what IMspirit documented per 75 decisions. I'll lose 5 IAR easily once every 75 decisions. That's within a closed "loop." As HBS suggested once perhaps this is more if I count end of one shoe and beginning of next but I don't keep track of that. I do keep my W/L per shoe as I play. I suppose it influences me somehow but I'm mostly betting flat or small spread so my losing or winning is a better measure. I don't need W/L variance to tell me I am losing.
I'd like to understand more about how you use Variance but presently I don't get it.
J
Quote from: mahatma on October 20, 2015, 01:55:51 PM
B0ll0cks
It's disturbing that you take so many of my phrases and nuances and try and past them off a your own, then throw it back at me. Let's not forget the email you sent me many years ago stating you bet $10 units, but on the boards it's $400 units. You are defiantly a prized crank Roberto, tell me how can somebody who has lost $250,000 consider themselves to be a long term winner, fool?
I guess this is Rolex with a new label. I wish people wouldn't do this. What's the point?
Quote from: Jimske on October 20, 2015, 02:11:42 PM
I guess this is Rolex with a new label. I wish people wouldn't do this. What's the point?
Because either the "I was only the gate-keeper" Seahog or Victor has banned the ID RW from posting, not like I cursed anybody out, just stating how I see it (without the cursing), didn't know old threads shouldn't be commented on
However on a forum were you can't post the words, s h i t, f o o l, i d i o t and so on, really what do you expect.
I'm outta here, keep the clown honest, I expect this account to be locked pretty soon, time to taste the gravel, even though there exists VPN's.
Quote from: mahatma on October 20, 2015, 01:55:51 PM
Let's not forget the email you sent me many years ago stating you bet $10 units, but on the boards it's $400 units. You are defiantly a prized crank Roberto, tell me how can somebody who has lost $250,000 consider themselves to be a long term winner, fool?
No, I think you're the one that is "forgetting"....forgetting the fact that you've already openly admitted that you LIED about that bogus "$10 units" e-mail; it never existed, not any $10 units nor any e-mail stating such nonsense.
So, give it up, Mahatma....Mahatma???, who the heck is Mahatma???....holy heck, Johno/Rolex, exactly how many aliases have you used on all of these sites...give it up, already, and seek the help that you so desperately need.
But, one piece of advice:
Don't dare let the psychiatrist charge you for each one of your phony aliases, it would cost you an arm and a leg!LOL
Oh, wait a minute....you could always borrow the arm from your Rolex Watch alias and the leg from your Mahatma alias.LOL
Quote from: Jimske on October 20, 2015, 02:11:42 PM
I guess this is Rolex with a new label. I wish people wouldn't do this. What's the point?
Of course it's Rolex. He needs as many different aliases as possible in order to fool everyone....or, so he thinks. In actuality, he's fooling nobody but himself. It would be funnier if, frankly, it didn't feel a bit more pitiful.
You've got to feel sorry for him, really. Never added a thing to this forum; all he knows how to do is "subtract", he simply doesn't know how to "add". Rather selfish, if you ask me. Shame, really.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 03:20:08 PM
You've got to feel sorry for him, really. Never added a thing to this forum; all he knows how to do is "subtract", he simply doesn't know how to "add". Rather selfish, if you ask me. Shame, really.
You got to be joking and that comes from you.
I have never seen or read anything from you contributing to this forum.
All nonsense and hints with no meaning.
I can say you among others have destroy this forum.
All you do is post riddles and claims with empty words.
So this forum has no value as there is no real contribution.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 03:15:38 PM
No, I think you're the one that is "forgetting"....forgetting the fact that you've already openly admitted that you LIED about that bogus "$10 units" e-mail; it never existed, not any $10 units nor any e-mail stating such nonsense.
No that is not true, more of a case of not keeping the original, I never lied at all, unlik yourself, who's posts over the years are riddled with contradictions.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 03:15:38 PM
So, give it up, Mahatma....Mahatma???, who the heck is Mahatma???....holy heck, Johno/Rolex, exactly how many aliases have you used on all of these sites...give it up, already, and seek the help that you so desperately need.
Already explained that one, RW is banned from exposing what a crank you are Preston.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 03:20:08 PM
Of course it's Rolex. He needs as many different aliases as possible in order to fool everyone....or, so he thinks. In actuality, he's fooling nobody but himself. It would be funnier if, frankly, it didn't feel a bit more pitiful.
No Walter, see above, you are being protected, only for the sake of internet traffic I can assume, couldn't possibly be anything else.
Quote from: gr8player on October 20, 2015, 03:15:38 PM
You've got to feel sorry for him, really. Never added a thing to this forum; all he knows how to do is "subtract", he simply doesn't know how to "add". Rather selfish, if you ask me. Shame, really.
I have / did actually, No I feel sorry for you who felt compelled to mention book offers, car-parking tales, waitresses, being ranked to win in a casino computer system, claiming to bet $400 per hand (why the need ), later down-graded to $100, mysterious proven stats, and best of all calls themselves a "long term winner" despite losing $250,000, what a Walter Mitty crank-pot.
your friend, wishing you the best, of it, and the rest of the blah's you end your posts with,
Quote from: Sputnik on October 20, 2015, 05:06:28 PM
You got to be joking and that comes from you.
I have never seen or read anything from you contributing to this forum.
All nonsense and hints with no meaning.
I can say you among others have destroy this forum.
All you do is post riddles and claims with empty words.
So this forum has no value as there is no real contribution.
Hello, Sputnik.
OK. You certainly are entitled to your opinion, and so I welcome your post. But let us not forget that you are, in fact, a "muse" of Johno/Rolex Watch/Mahatma, and I'm rather convinced that if Johno/Rolex Watch/Mahatma posted that he could, in fact, fly through the air, you would be the first (and only) one here that would actually gaze skyward. So your arguments, especially as they pertain to agreeing with your "mentor", must be taken with a grain of salt. Still, that all being as obvious as it is, I will show you the same respect as any other member, and will answer your allegations:
"I don't contribute to this forum"
"All nonsense and hints with no meaning"
"I have destroyed this forum"
"I post riddles and empty words"
"This forum has no value and no contribution"
My friend, I wholeheartedly disagree with each and every one of those assessments of yours.
Witness this very thread that I authored: Loss Eradication
I explained exactly how my variance had shifted dramatically, from upside to down. Further, I detailed the loss that I suffered from that downward shift. I then went on to explain exactly what I did in order to counteract, or nullify, that downward shift.
That is EXACTLY how I approach this game. I play a tight, conservative, consistent trending game, and I maintain vital statistics of both my strike rates and my bets. I then adjust my bet sizes accordingly; either up or down, based upon my latest results. Sometimes (as in this case), I adjust upwards for recoup, and sometimes I adjust downwards into a higher-than-normal strike rate/variance.
Now, if YOU (or anyone else) do not play that way, or if YOU (or anyone else) doesn't understand what I am trying to convey, or if YOU (or anyone else) simply doesn't care to approach the game in a similar manner to mine, I'M FINE WITH THAT. It's OK. It's your money that you put up at the tables, play any way that you feel most comfortable with.
BUUTTT, to demean or to belittle or to attack MY WAY; that, my friend, simply is not acceptable....not in this or any other respectable forum.
Lastly, Sputnik, it is not right, IMHO, for you to come on here and make those outrageous claims....that somehow I am "destroying this forum" or that I "post nothing" and/or "contribute nothing" or that "this forum has no value"....it's just not right and it's just not fair to those of us that do, in fact, enjoy our memberships and our time spent here.
If you do not agree with my approach to this game or my style of play or even any of my posts....that's fine, life will go on. But to attack simply for sake of attacking, to argue simply for the sake of arguing, or to disrupt simply for the sake of disruption....in that case, my friend, you're learning much too much from your "mentor", Johno/Rolex Watch/Mahatma, and all you're succeeding at is making him, unfortunately for everyone else here, rather proud. I hope you're happy....
Quote from: Sputnik on October 20, 2015, 05:06:28 PM
You got to be joking and that comes from you.
I have never seen or read anything from you contributing to this forum.
All nonsense and hints with no meaning.
I can say you among others have destroy this forum.
All you do is post riddles and claims with empty words.
So this forum has no value as there is no real contribution.
Some people like his posts. They may get some ideas from them. He does talk about Baccarat so that should be good enough IMO.
I do think that Rolex should not get banned and if he is then he should be re-instated.
Look, got to admit there just isn't a whole lot of stuff about Bacc anyway that hasn't been re-hashed.
People should be allowed to give their opinion of others posts.
Quote from: Jimske on October 20, 2015, 07:42:13 PM
Some people like his posts. They may get some ideas from them. He does talk about Baccarat so that should be good enough IMO.
I do think that Rolex should not get banned and if he is then he should be re-instated.
Look, got to admit there just isn't a whole lot of stuff about Bacc anyway that hasn't been re-hashed.
People should be allowed to give their opinion of others posts.
I agree with this man right here.
The joint has gotten very entertaining, as of late. Now, if only the "GARNABBY" would make a come bake, hey hey.