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[Bayes]

@ WorldBaccaratKing,

I chuckled over your last post, and I have to agree with you that not playing a system merely because it doesn't suit your "style" would seem to be a luxury too far, at least for those who haven't even found one which works. It's almost as though winning is a secondary consideration, or that all systems win, just pick the one you like. Like all cars get you from A to B, but so what, I want the one with the alloy wheels and leather seats!

Also agree that "it either works or it doesn't". Trouble is, any simple mechanical system will work some of the time, but if you keep plodding along with it eventually it'll hit the far end of the bell curve: -3 standard deviations or less. In my humble opinion, the "answer" is not to endlessly create and recreate systems looking for "the one" (which really is a fruitless task) but to create a sort of "meta system" - one which controls or coordinates other systems. These other systems can be whatever you like, so in that sense AD is right - just pick one or some which suit your "style".

I've played many systems that have worked for a long period and I've made a decent amount of money using them, all of a sudden, it doesn't work any-more and you have to be able to think on your feet.

It's not that "it doesn't work any more", but that it never worked in the first place, in the sense that it would make a flat-bet profit. Every simple mechanical system will spend most of its time in the "belly" of the bell curve, and a little time in each of the far positive and negative ends.

"Thinking on your feet" is, in essence, the Meta-system. But what is that, exactly? Yes, every outcome is a 50:50 proposition, but this ignores the missing ingredient of variance (variance only makes sense when you're talking about sequences, or multiple decisions, and multiple decisions are usually not 50:50 propositions). So when you hit a losing run and have to "think on your feet", isn't that just a matter of adapting? being flexible? changing your strategy (bet selection) in accordance with the current conditions?

This is how I like to see the process (I'm talking about bet selections only here, not MM):

You have a number of Simple Mechanical Systems (SMS), all of which are losers in the "long run". They could be standard selections such as DBL, OLD, etc or something more complex (but don't make them too complex, there's no point). However, I think it's important that they are diverse, in terms of the events they "target".

These are managed by the Meta-System (MS), the supervisor, whose job it is to monitor the SMS in terms of performance, rank them, and select the one(s) which are doing best. In terms of playing roulette single numbers, you would be playing the numbers which are hitting the most. So the MS is effectively a trending strategy. However, simple trending systems, in my experience, don't work any better than any other SMS; you need to have a "portfolio"; one system just won't cut it.

None of this is rocket science, or new, but it works and there are good reasons why it works. If a system is currently at the positive end of the bell-curve, chances are it won't swing back to the negative end the moment you start playing it, because that would violate regression to the mean. Back to back extremes are rare, and it doesn't matter what combinations they come in - an extreme negative sequence is unlikely to be followed by an extreme negative sequence, but also an extreme positive sequence, and vice-versa. If this does happen (and it will eventually), just switch to another currently "top-ranked" SMS.

MM handles the rough patches which inevitably occur due to short-term shifts in the rankings.

[Ezscouter]

Hey guys I haven't been playing baccarat for very long but I just wanted to share a method that I've been using for about 28 weeks now. I started out with a $7500 bank roll. And now I am at a $92000 profit. I only bring about 900-1200 a day. And if I had 3 losses in a row or down $900 I would go home. Or if I was up at least 500-600 I would go home. So here is the method. And I would very much appreciate everyone, if anyone, can tell me the flaws in this method so I can modify it and make it better or safer. So here it is ! 


ALWAYS let at least 20 hands deal out before you make a bet.
This is what you're looking for.

B PP B PP B      here bet that it will be P

B PPP B PPP B    Same with here .

Or

BB PPP BB PPP B.   Bet that it will be a B

NOTICE: IF YOU LOSE A HAND AND THAT PATTERN BREAKS, LEAVE THE TABLE AND LOOK FOR ANOTHER TABLE. AND IF YOU WON KEEP BETTING THAT THE PATTERN WILL KEEP GOING.

Always bet $300 NEVER INCREASE OR DECREASE.

important: when these things occur, GO HOME !!!
1. If you are down $900
2. If you lose 3 times in a row. Even if you are up like $3000 still go home !

DO NOT BE GREEDY AND AVOID THESE RULES. there's ALWAYS TOMORROW !!!

I've been doing only 7 months or so and it has very well worked out for me.


I've calculated my losses and wins every week and to my surprise, I win about 72.52% of the time. All I did was added up my wins and losses and then wins / wins + losses. Occasionally I'll have 3 or 4 bad days in a row ( so about $900 lost a day ). But I've notice my amount won will win all that back within 3 or 4 days. My average win is around 1100. Some days I'll go home with $0 some days I'll go home and lost $900. But some days I'll go home with $300 or even $5000. My highest ever so far was $9200 ( after commission and tipping the dealers ).

The most important key for this method to work is patience and accepting that you've lost that day. And always go with a friend when you can. It's a lot easier to contain yourself when you have a buddy. Although those patterns seems very strict and kind of hard to come by ( sometimes I'll wait an hour before I even see that pattern come ) it's VERY IMPORTANT that you don't bet lazily. And what do I mean by that ? Well....

Say you saw something like this
B PP BB PPP B DO NOT BET HERE.
  Since there have been a single B and a BB you don't know that the next one will be a single or double. So DO NOT BET HERE. Even if a second B shows up there, LEAVE THAT TABLE.

or if it's like

B PP B P B P  ALSO DO NOT BET HERE. this doesn't follow any of the patterns up there.

So the key for my so far success is PATIENCE and ACCEPTANCE.

please feel free to use this method, and if you do, please tell me how it went. I suggest u start out with a small goal. Like say to win 100-200 a day bring about... 500-600$ ? And set the same limits when you're down $300 go home or if you've lost 3 times in a row.


I hope this helped everyone !!
I hope you guys will help me out too with tips and all that.v


Oh something else I should mention

Bring a gaming device... I don't care what it is, an iPad, a smart phone, your son's Nintendo ds, something to entertain you while you wait because sometimes it could be an hour before you see a good table. Also bring a friend to help you bet when multiple tables are good and to help you look at more tables at once.


So to summarize all that up for you guys:

1. Bet only when you see the appropriate patterns listed above.
2. Know when to call it a day. ( reasons listed above )
3. Bring a way to make waiting fun.
4. DO NOT BE GREEDY AND TRY TO WIN BACK YOUR LOSSES !

And a little tip: set your alarm on your smart phone to ring every 45 - 60 minutes. This'll remind you to recount all your earning and see if you should go home or not. If you are up a win or 2 ( 300-600 ) and it's been a back and forth game, it's best to go home with your 300-600$.

Thanks a lot of listening guys. Please give me any replies or feedbacks I really appreciate it.

[ADulay]

Why do you always answer so indirectly? You beat around the bush......Seriously, quit the stuff.........

Everything is BLACK & WHITE, why you do muddle it up with gray? It either works (I don't care what your style is) or it don't. Listen, Izak has systems that drawdown 500 units or some stuff, THAT IS UNREALISTIC FOR ANYONE unless you are a billionaire and you wouldn't be on these forums...... So, are you saying that it "may" work with a 500 unit drawdown or something comparable? If so, it renders it USELESS.

Others may find it appealing and useful? WHAT???

Listen, you can either make money with it or you can't. Its THAT SIMPLE!!!

As long as your not cheating at a casino and doing thing illegally, I think 100% of baccarat players would use ANYTHING that works. So, you saying, its not acceptable for you? LOL, that's crazier than ANYTHING I have EVER HEARD in my life...

You asked me if I play, the question is, HAVE YOU? I

Are you related to Ellis?

Hey Ad, you try system X lately? (AD responds) Well, yup, I won 25 million BUT, ya know, IT REALLY aint my style. (BACK TO ME) Oh ok, I get it, you have the holy grail but it doesn't mesh with your "personality", it doesn't jive with your cowboy hat and boots, I get it!? (BACK TO AD) Yup, you may want to give it a whirl though, it just isn't for me. I am sure you will do FINE with it and find it appealing.

So, what did your response answer? NOTHING, absolutely nothing...........

Although, I am not quite sure I expected you to answer anything DIRECTLY, it DEFINITELY isn't YOUR STYLE!

You know, I just wrote up a very large, very detailed reply and then decided to wait a half hour before hitting send.

I deleted it and sent this instead.

AD