I've been playing higher and higher lately, betting 300 minimum up to 4k per hand. Avg. bet is roughly 1k (i ask). I have had good days winning 10k plus but never the huge days of 50-100k.
I have a decent sized bankroll, 50k-100k.
90%+ of the time, I am ahead 500-1k within 1-5 bets. Easily. Other night, 1st bet was 600, won, bet 900, won. Quick 1500 in 2 hands. Yet, I didn't stop. Proceeded to go down 8k, and played 1500-4k a hand, got back to up 1k and stopped. That doesn't always happen that way.
So basically, my new plan is this: Win 500-1k a day, that's 18k-36k every single month if I can pull it off and is decent money for most.
Obviously, there will be days (rare ones) when I get down and can't make it back so I will use a stop of 5k and call it a day. I should still be profitable each week. Im keeping a journal now and will report back.
I also trade stocks and I have did this same thing the past few weeks and it has worked well. Making 3-5k a week and calling it quits. Again, that's 12-20k a month. Obviously, I would have to pay capital gains on my stock profit at the end of the year to the tune of 35% or so. But can't get around that.
I think going for singles and doubles in the long run, you can beat this game. Home runs do occur, just more infrequently and your bankroll is being put in a much bigger position to get dwindled down.....
Love to hear any comments or if anyone has did this.....
Just want to understand this topic as we are from different countrys with different currency.
1K is that 100$ or 1000$
I have above 5000 EUR and soon reach 10.000 EUR and would never dear to play does amounts of money as base bet.
I would be scared to lose big part of my bankroll betting the way you do.
Cheers
I put up a thread Easy Panda vs Hard Dragon that you might want to check out and the discussions on money management cover it. The more achievable targets are, the more likely you are to hit and just jet. But you can push hard with stops below so you are setting protection in place.
It's variance management.
I would seriously attempt to convey to you, if you have a 5k stop loss or whatever it is, that is all you should bring to the casino, no matter what.
If you are playing for comp and trying to rack up points, it will haunt you in the long run.
If your stop loss is truly $5k, all you are doing is putting your bankroll at risk.
I have had numerous friends and casino playing partners that have lost similar and more by declaring close to what you suggest. There is the heat of the moment, there is the over self confidence and there is the time that you will rack up good wins-gove it all back, try again and win and then lose and then you will keep trying and your bank roll will go away. Don't do it IMO.
Unless you are truly going to play $1k to $3-$5k a hand when the opportunity is present and you will risk it all, you are not providing yourself any cushion or advantage by buying in with more than your stop loss. IMO and I have been there and witnessed and experienced everything I am citing. Thanks. Good Luck.
marine, alrelax is right about your strategy. unless you really commit to that stop loss and you change the amounts you bet by lowering it a bit. a small losing streak will get you to 5K in minutes and its up to your mental game to walk away and not buyin for more to try to win it all back or some of it at least.
is your baccarat bankroll for your stock trading as well? or do you have 50K-100K each? do you ever withdraw money from your stock account to use at the casinos?
i don't do consistent stock trades, but once in a while ill dabble in buying some options for speculations. i started currency trading but its taking a back seat right now as im focusing much more on my baccarat play.
Quote from: marinetech on March 21, 2017, 11:50:38 AM
I have a decent sized bankroll, 50k-100k.
So basically, my new plan is this: Win 500-1k a day, that's 18k-36k every single month if I can pull it off and is decent money for most.
Obviously, there will be days (rare ones) when I get down and can't make it back so I will use a stop of 5k and call it a day. I should still be profitable each week. Im keeping a journal now and will report back.
Love to hear any comments or if anyone has did this.....
I will seriously give you the benefit of the doubt or anyone that attempts something like this. You mention "rare" they are not so rare my friend, not by far.
I would estimate (no wish intended, just pure remembrance of people I know that tried, my own smaller wins attempted 3 days a week, etc., etc. And that is, no better than 50%. Your stop loss is $5k, X's 15 days. Small wins which are very very possible, say $500 to $1,500 for such wins immediately within a few hands and then immediately leaving, which almost none do and will not do. But say you do, X's the $500 to $1,500 X's another 15. There is your answer.
Playing each and every day is a huge monumental task at baccarat. Wish you all the luck, if you could do this, so could hundred fo thousand of others in each locale and those tables would not be there.
I have a close 'casino friend' I wrote about in my Blog. He came into the casino never playing bac before with about $1,500 or so and won $10k. For about one month, he probably got up to about $50k or so. Then for months and months he gave it all back, his a savings of at least $50-$75k, sold a paid for luxury car and many other items. All gone. He finally stopped. That is NOT a lone story that happens all the time in each and every casino. Seriously.
I appreciate all the comments!
So, last night I started at 200 a hand, got down 1k, kept at around 2-500 per hand, got ahead finally 500, bet it and won, net was 950 after commission and all was said and done...
I am ahead 600-1k 80-90% of my time in the beginning of playing. Many times I am down and get back to even and then risk a little more to get ahead. If that doesn't happen, I stop and that's it..
I am off to the casino. I will update later...
Quote from: marinetech on March 22, 2017, 01:11:38 PM
I appreciate all the comments!
So, last night I started at 200 a hand, got down 1k, kept at around 2-500 per hand, got ahead finally 500, bet it and won, net was 950 after commission and all was said and done...
I am ahead 600-1k 80-90% of my time in the beginning of playing. Many times I am down and get back to even and then risk a little more to get ahead. If that doesn't happen, I stop and that's it..
I am off to the casino. I will update later...
Hey do you use pitboss as your bet selection or you are betting based on trends. Thanks and good luck.
hey marine, i wish you lots of luck as well, but all good things will come to an end. especially in gambling. you have to be level headed and not get too overconfidence, EVER! a friend of mine told me a story of someone she knew at the casino. he would bring 6K to the casino as a bankroll and his daily goal was just to win $100/day. he did it for several years, building up a nice nest egg. that one day came along, and he couldnt win at all. not only that, he loses control and keeps taking money out and im sure you know the story from here. in the end, he lost EVERYTHING!, including his wife and kids. maybe if he didn't lose control, he would still be doing it today. its all the mind game at first! and where it leads is up to the individual.
Can somebody please explain to me what is the pitboss bet selection method?
As has been mentioned many times here in the past....don't think in dollars or euros......think in percentages.......such as .......
1. What % of my bankroll will I bet on each hand (minimum and maximum % if you are using a progression )
2. What maximum % of my bankroll will I risk on one shoe
3. What maximum % of my bankroll will I risk on one session...( a session can be anything you feel like such as the number of shoes you play starting from the time you enter a casino until the time you leave the casino...........or a fixed number of shoes such as play 3 shoes and quit and that is a session).
4. What range of percentages will I try to win for each shoe and each session .....such as try to win between 1% and 2 % of bankroll for each shoe and 2% or 3 % of bankroll for each session.
The main idea is to be conservative in your percentages so you are able to withstand the inevitable long losing streaks.
Of course no one does this because:
1. They are too lazy
2. And most people just like to gamble, have a good time and get an adrenaline rush .........and not try to "Win Money".........which is why casinos keep on building multi billion dollar casinos with the money lost by gamblers.
In my next post, I will explain the mathematical and psychological difficulties in determining the relationship between taking profits and losses.
hey everyone.
Went to Rivers casino in Schenectady, NY. Bought in for 10k, bet 2-500, then was out 2k, high bet was 2k, ended up with my 1k win.
Went to Turning Stone casino in NY, high bet was 500, took about 10 hands (some nice 3x3's occurred), hit my 1k goal fairly easy.
2 days, up 3k.
if I use 100k as my bankroll, I am looking at 1% a day profit. MY stop loss is 5k for the day. Am I going to get clipped? Sure, I am hoping I have a cushion from profits and I am almost there, 2k away before I would get clipped.......
If I get lucky for a month, I am looking at 30k+ a month in profits.
I do what the shoe is doing, I watch the 1st 3-4 hands and decide. If its chopping, I bet the chop, if I see 2x2's, I play it, any run, I am on......when it gets nuts, I sit and wait for it to get back on track (at least in my mind!). Sometimes I do use PB method when I never see it go past (3), which happens a lot lately. I will base bet of 300, then 600.....
Quote from: marinetech on March 23, 2017, 10:57:51 AM
hey everyone.
Went to Rivers casino in Schenectady, NY. Bought in for 10k, bet 2-500, then was out 2k, high bet was 2k, ended up with my 1k win.
Went to Turning Stone casino in NY, high bet was 500, took about 10 hands (some nice 3x3's occurred), hit my 1k goal fairly easy.
2 days, up 3k.
if I use 100k as my bankroll, I am looking at 1% a day profit. MY stop loss is 5k for the day. Am I going to get clipped? Sure, I am hoping I have a cushion from profits and I am almost there, 2k away before I would get clipped.......
If I get lucky for a month, I am looking at 30k+ a month in profits.
I do what the shoe is doing, I watch the 1st 3-4 hands and decide. If its chopping, I bet the chop, if I see 2x2's, I play it, any run, I am on......when it gets nuts, I sit and wait for it to get back on track (at least in my mind!). Sometimes I do use PB method when I never see it go past (3), which happens a lot lately. I will base bet of 300, then 600.....
I have been preaching 'follow what the shoe is producing and stop the stupid playing for the cut':
Pouncing on the shoe. What I do.
« on: March 17, 2017, 11:08:22 am »
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Here is a sample. Certain sections and certain productions, give me the 100% fuel to capitalize. Can be different or the same, depending on what I am seeing with pattern, winning point values, losing point value reductions, etc. Almost every one of the first 20 hands was a strong win by high point value and when 3rd card draws were dealt to the side that lost, it would almost every time reduce that side to near zero or maybe a 1-2-or 3 total value to the other side 7-8 or 9. It was screaming, follow me daddy, and I would have 100% if that was in a B&M, like where I am going tonight. Here it is almost play by play when I would have started to wager.
I would have started after the 2 Players-2 Bankers-Single Player-Single Banker- 3 Players.
I would have pounced on it with my 1st wager on the Banker cut after the 3 Players. And then I would have pressed and probably added another amount equal to the original and pressed win. I would have kept that up for the 2nd and the 3rd Bankers as well.
I would have pounced hard on the cut for the Player after the 3rd Banker. I won the 3 Bankers that matched the 3 Players, side by side. I figured due to the number point values, the reduction of point value for the losing side and the pattern (it was matching-2 P's, 2 B's, 2 Chops) that just what happened, happened and I would have caught all 3 and the fourth one with the cut back to the Player. Then I would have stopped for a few hands.
Then with the 3 chop on the board I would have went on with a 2nd Player for hand 17. I would have lost. But it is evening out. When it made the 2nd Banker, I would cut back to the Player at this point. It was a Tie. I would stay with the Player. Won the first player. Stack it really heavy for the second Player, win that one.
The I would figure I have one more wager or so left in this section. I would go for the 3rd Player for the 1-2-3 pattern that I envisioned and it happened. I would cool it off after this and watch and wait for another section of the shoe, no matter if chop (weak) or strong (repeating and doubles or whatever).
AND:
Re: The time to pounce on the shoe
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2017, 08:15:11 am »
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That is correct, I have always stated that. ANYTHING and EVERYTHING can happen, most certainly! Chop-Chop the whole shoe, doubles the entire shoe, 50+ Bankers and 20 or so Players in a shoe, 50+ Players and 20 or so Bankers in a shoe, 30 ties in one shoe, 3 Fortune 7's back to back then a Banker then a Fortune 7 then a Banker then another 2 Fortune 7's back to back, and so. Those are possible, rare in the sense they do not repeat themselves for quite some time, in fact extremely rare.
Also Anything and Everything is a partial shoe of perfect rhythm like 1 Banker followed by numerous Players for 10 to 15 squares going horizontal. Then in the same shoe it changes up, maybe not as quick by a perfect 'regression to the means' does come about by the end of the shoe. Or 1's and 3's and then Chop-Chop and then nothing at all. It is all possible with the aforesaid just being a handful of common situations and common occurrences and the first paragraph rare events that do happen, but rare.
With that said, 'seldom failures' I am referring to the majority of the times. I can not quantify a percentage, I do not do or believe in testing in baccarat events on the computer. Again, as I state plenty of times--testing is all fine for the event outcome on the computer. But the small amount of trivial shoes and hands actually played by a gambler at a B&M casino will not reflect anything of resemblance to those stats derived from a computer test. So therefore, I cannot state a percentage. But I do like and have profited plenty from the following scenario and witnessed it numerous times as well:
A strong section, meaning numerous squares going horizontal which produce strong sections but all classified as a 'Section'. Then when the turning point comes, if that turning point includes naturals or 4 card draws, 9 to 8, 8 to 7 or 7 to 6 and it bounces B to P at least 3 times, get ready to pounce on it. So a strong section and then the turning point. Say the end of the strong section was 7 Players and then a Banker with 9 over the Player 8 or even 7. Then the Players with an 8 over the Bankers 7 or the Players 7 over the Bankers 6. Then the Players 8 with a Bankers 7. I would pounce on the next hand with a larger wager on the Player side for a double.
Also those three alternating B's and P's can be replaced with 6 card draws where the prevailing B or P is brought up to 8 or 9 and the losing B or P is reduced to 0-1 or 2 or 3 or so.
Out of the last 10 times I discovered this, I would have to say 8 successful pounces for me. I have not kept stats on my wins/loses for this but now that I wrote about it, I will try.
Good Luck, this is the proper way to play from the early 1980's at the big table to today. Period.
As an addition to reply #10 in this thread, there is a psychological and mathematical problem everyone faces in trying to develop a plan to handle profits and losses in any type of gambling situation.
For example if you have a $ 10,000 bankroll and set a 2% loss limit ( $200 ) for a shoe or roulette session, then if you lose the $ 200 in the first baccarat shoe or 30 or 40 roulette spins, you take the loss and go home...which is pretty easy ( assuming you have the discipline to leave.....which most people do not ).
But what if you set a 2% ( $200 ) target for a profit objective......and a miracle happens and you win your first 4 or 5 bets and are ahead $190 ?
Can you see the psychological problem? ....are you going to sit there and possibly see the $190 profit disappear if you lose the next 4 or 5 hands or spins....just so you can make an extra $10 ?
That's why a loss limit is cut and dried ( assuming you have the discipline to leave when the loss limit is hit ) and the profit objective has very damaging and difficult psychological problems to deal with.....which is why it is very hard to develop a business plan for gambling since the profit objective is subject to fear and greed which is present in every human being ( the same analysis applies to stock and futures traders.....profit objectives are difficult to get a handle on.)
In my next post, I will describe the three greatest "inventions" in gambling and the real reasons why it is very difficult to show a profit in any gambling game.
You talk very decisive and quantitate regarding the loss limit.
A loss limit of $200.00 and then go home, will not happen the highest upper 90% percentile times, the very highest of the upper 90's so close to 100% of the time, it is not even one bit funny.
Regarding a loss limit with a larger bank-roll/buy in. If you are referring to a true bank roll, one that is your total gambling budget for say the year, and it is also left at home and not brought to the casino and in front of you, then possibly that is very smart. However if it is brought to the casino and it is also your buy-in or in your pocket, that loss limit is the subject matter of the second sentence above.
I get confused at times when people mention bank roll and loss limit. If they are referring to bringing their bank roll and buying in with it or say bring their bank roll of $10k and saying they have a $500.00 loss limit and they continually buy in with $1k, etc.
To me, a casino player should 100% of the times bring his loss limit as his buy-in (session/day/trip) bank roll and have no other money or funds available. Period, done deal.
hi all,
went to mohegan and foxwoods in ct this past weekend. made about 4k total. up 7k the past week. slow and steady has been winning for me.....
might head to local casino tuesday night and try for my 1k profit.....
hey marine, im glad you're winning a nice chunk. im wondering if you will tell us the truth if you ever get on a bad losing streak. hope it won't happen but people tend to hold off mentioning how much they lost and always post how much they won. where is the local casinos you are referring about?
Hey all,
Won 1k tonight in 20 minutes......8k past 8 days or so.
Overall, I'm down probably 50-75k playing baccarat. I would play just to play. Never had a win or stop loss. That was my downfall thinking I would win 20-100k on a magical run.
Once I stopped that, I have been doing good.....
Time will tell and I will keep you updated.....
Good luck Marinetech. You will do fine because now you know how important to walk away when winning.
My problems before was I didn't know what to do when I lost a few hands. I was panic and kept betting to get my losses back like yesterday. Also, I had a hard time walking away after winning like $500-$1000. I guess I learned the hard way.
ya, i would gamble to gamble. I mean its hard driving an hour sometimes and be up in 3-5 hands 1k and walking. But, treat it as a business and your outlook changes....
1k a day= 28-30k cash a month, not too shabby for most....
I have contemplated the following is I can keep this up for 1 month:
I have (3) casinos within 1 hour 15 mins from me. One is 15 minutes away, the other is 1:15 to the east and 1:15 to the west. All thruway driving, very easy drive.
So, if I could treat it as a job, that's 1k each casino/day, 21k a week, 84k+ a month!
But, I want to see if this holds up for a month. Again, I will update. Me and a friend are leaving at 930am to head to one 1:15 minutes away. I will update later...
Absolutely, I am unintelligent, so I think I will sell all my excavators, skid loaders, side dumps, straight dumps, roll off containers, quick response vehicles and trailers, compactors, traffic control signage and sign boards, sampling equipment, office, equipment, inventory, shop/warehouse and land and play everyday at the casino. I am tired of working from 7am to 6pm everyday. Instead of making a couple hundred thousand a year, I figure I can make $2k a day and take in about $700k a year and don't even have to pay taxes!!!! What was I thinking before working all these years???? Hey Ted, seriously!
Alrelax, nothing is wrong. There are people making a living by playing baccarat. I know one of them in my area. Is it easy to do? For me it is not. That is why I am learning it every day. I only can speak for myself. I learned from a few members here and I also learned a lot from you. Those who have helped me know who they are. Thank you all for all your help.
I am not sure when I will get there but I will be there, if the Good Lord is willing. " where there is a will, there is a way."
Never said it cannot be done. That is why I want to lock the door and sell the excavators, the skid loaders, the side dump, the straight dump trucks, the vehicles, the trailers, the yard and shop.
The money is not in owning a casino, not in running special events, not in hosting, not in doing any of that. It is in gambling and getting cash everyday, LOL, I am so stupid for actually thinking otherwise.
hey all,
went to 1st casino made 900 after commission called it a day there, drove to 2nd casino, blew 300 on stupid slot machine. PLayed bacc and won 1300, got my 300 from machine back and my 1k goal....
1900+ yesterday 2 casinos. Keeping the train going. Might go tonight to one 15 minutes away.....keep you updated...
I'm going to chime in on this even though I haven't seen or experienced it myself. Alrelax is 100% correct on his comments and even on his sarcasm. Haha. If it really was that easy to win, people with big 401k or lifetime savings could just cash out and play bac for a living. So many people try that in poker and only a handful hit it big. This is GAMBLING. It's been perfected in the beginning to give the casino the edge it needs, plus they pretty much have an unlimited bankroll to back them up. They restrict us gamblers with limits otherwise a billionaire might not ever lose in bac. Forget the other casino games. Bac might be the easiest to master but everything needs to be in check. Attitude, greed factor, mental toughness, money management and many other smaller factors. Once one of these factors get compromised you are more vulnerable to making a mistake and that might jeopardize the other factors. This will eventually snowball into total disaster. Marine, again I'm happy you are winning and I wish you luck. I wish I had the size of bankroll you do because I would destroy with confidence. I'm destroying at this point but at a much smaller level. Anyway, there is really no need to post EVERY trip to the casino. To me it seems like you're starting to get a bit overconfidence which would be a bad trait for gambling professionally. Take a step back and remain on your goal. As soon as you lose control it all goes down the tube. The story I told the last time was of a fella who did the winning a little every day for a few years than finally lost control and lost his whole fortune and family!!!! Gambling is all random and that random will finally catch up to you with a big losing streak where you need to minimize the damage. As long as the bankroll is sufficient and you maintain your stop loss goal, anything can be done. But once someone experiences 2 than 3 and than maybe 4 losing days in a row after winning 2 months straight can easily start playing tricks on you. Just be safe and be careful everyone.
Hey marinetech, haven't heard from you in a couple of days. Any new updates? Which casinos do you normally play at?
strange that Marinetech posted practically every day for a few days about his winnings. all of a sudden, he's no where to be found. does anyone think the tide has changed for him in a big way and he doesn't want to let us know? Marine, if you're around, let us know what happened? any kind of experiences give members more information to go on.