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[HunchBacShrimp]

Well, I went early this Friday night so the tables wouldn't be full. Spent an hour at the craps table waiting for some Bac players to show up. I won 8 and lost 5 playing Bac style at the craps table.  I waited for a single Pass, and then bet the Don't to isolate that Pass as a single event.

Had a guy buy in next to me and start chatting it up all friendly like until he noticed the only bets I made were on the Don't side. He stopped talking, looked at me quizzically, and moved away from me next to the base dealer! He's right across from me, like 5 feet away and will not even glance at me. Craps players can be such a goofy bunch of people. I made and won one bet against him before I moved over to Baccarat.

I missed the opening bet by one decision. Which I usually make as a Tie bet. It was Player so I saved myself my first loss of a losing streak that lasted for my first 7 bets! So much for having an easy session, and getting home in time to get some sleep so I could go to work early this morning. Now I have to work tomorrow instead. My W/L string opened up like this, LLLLLLLWWLWLLLLWLLWWWL. Needless to say, I'm down once again over 20u in the first shoe. Had some clusters of wins toward the end, but was very conservative and only managed to get back to -10u.

PPPP B P BBBB PP B P B P BBB P B PP BB P BBB PPPP B PP B PPPP BBBB P BB PPP BB PP B PPPPPPP B P B P B PP B P

I wasn't on the P7 streak and lost a 5u bet, as I always bet that 7's go to 8 and hopefully one day 20.

Second shoe was alright, lost another 5u bet early on a B7 streak.    Banker didn't streak again until late and I didn't gain as much ground as I could have betting for the 2h only. I coulda went home much earlier if I was betting 4u with a 1u follow up instead of 2u and a 1u follow up. It was a long night, and I can't recall exactly what happened, but this shoe caused me some trouble and I had to get into my third stack of red, however I had squirreled away 16 red chips in my pocket. I eventually got them out and my draw down was only about 20u, though it felt like much more.

PPPP BBB P BBBBBBB P BB P BB PP BB PPPPP B PPP BBB PP B PP B P B PP BB P B P BBBBBB P BB P B PPPP BBB P B

On to shoe 3, table changes to a 10$ min, and I decide to bet a little bigger to get back to even and leave. Lost my first four bets 2u 2u 4u 6u. Implemented a few strong parlays and found myself back to even very quickly. I did not continue to bet strong when I got back to even and refused to stop betting for the Player Dragon. I missed it twice on a bet I normally would have won it, either time would have sent me home. So that bet is causing me to get nowhere as I only hit it for 6-1 once and the rest of the time only 2-1 or 1-1 as I lose 2u or 3u on Banker.  This shoe was causing me fits, but I managed to keep it together and was only -3u at the end of it.

PP
B
P
B
PP
B
PPPPP
BBB
P
B
PP
BBB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PPPPP
B
P
BBB
P
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
BBBB
P
B
P
B
PPP
BBB
PP

This shoe just hit me kind off odd, the way the streaks were isolated on both sides by an equal amount of singles. Solo streak, then back to back streaks, then solo etc. I almost put a big bet on that final B streak to hit 4, because none of the adjacent streaks in the whole shoe were equal in length. I also refrained from making a big bet that the last P streak would have remained a single, as nowhere in the shoe had there been more than two streaks in a row.

The following shoe finally sent me home with 13u profit. NINE HOURS LATER! After continually contemplating a 20u loss or more I was absolutely elated to make it out of there with 13u. Elated I tell you. E! LAY! TED!

Player :     Ace, Three  total 4 and will draw a card.
Banker :    Ace, Two    total 3 and will draw a card unless Player draws an Eight.

Player :    Draws a three for a total of 7
Banker :   Draws a four for a total of 7

TIE!!!!

Praise Zeus!. First hand Tie! That's 16u! COLOR COMING IN! I'm outta here.

I'll try it again next week. Once again, I hope it is an easier session. This 'trend' of me losing my first bet and several more right behind it is getting tiresome. Even though I'm expecting a bad session, I'm no longer burdened by its impending doom. I'm also becoming more and more expectant of some opening wins and maybe hitting that bloody 30-1 Player Dragon.

[Jimske]

Well there will be plenty of times you got to raise your bet to win or just cut your losses.

[HunchBacShrimp]

Agreed. For me, it isn't a flat bet game. I have to bet larger for recovery and profit. Usually, in the form of a parlay to reduce the initial bet size, and initial loss potential. It's keeping the hammer down into a win streak that is tricky, I don't like risking big wins to net next to nothing and then inadvertently dig a deeper hole.
However, I'll never walk out with +50u or more without doing just that. And I'm ok with that. That's why I play the Player Dragon and first hand Tie. To burst me past my stop win. Which is about 20u.

Somewhere in here is a thread about how often you win 10 or 20 or 30 units flat betting, parlaying, or martingaling. And how often you pass back and forth over the threshold of profit and loss for each mm inside of 100 bets. I've discovered part of this myself. No where near to the extent the thread covers though. It is imo some of the best gambling information I've ever read.

That's why my stop win is about 20u, it's why I fight so hard for getting even and going home after a big draw down.

[soxfan]

Agreed. For me, it isn't a flat bet game. I have to bet larger for recovery and profit. Usually, in the form of a parlay to reduce the initial bet size, and initial loss potential. It's keeping the hammer down into a win streak that is tricky, I don't like risking big wins to net next to nothing and then inadvertently dig a deeper hole.
However, I'll never walk out with +50u or more without doing just that. And I'm ok with that. That's why I play the Player Dragon and first hand Tie. To burst me past my stop win. Which is about 20u.

Somewhere in here is a thread about how often you win 10 or 20 or 30 units flat betting, parlaying, or martingaling. And how often you pass back and forth over the threshold of profit and loss for each mm inside of 100 bets. I've discovered part of this myself. No where near to the extent the thread covers though. It is imo some of the best gambling information I've ever read.

That's why my stop win is about 20u, it's why I fight so hard for getting even and going home after a big draw down.

You might wanna take a looksee at Conquer the Casinos book, hey hey.
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/1569802491?keywords=conquer%20the%20casino&qid=1436831171&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

[HunchBacShrimp]

You might wanna take a looksee at Conquer the Casinos book, hey hey.
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/1569802491?keywords=conquer%20the%20casino&qid=1436831171&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

Thanks Soxfan. That's the information I was talking about. I'm going to have to buy that.

[HunchBacShrimp]

Short night tonight.

Really was a little apprehensive about going tonight. First off, all that railing against wewin2222 calling him a loser etc etc seemed to me like I was just stackiing the cards of karma against me. Secondly, I straight up lost my temper today early this morning while I was working. And I'm still angry about how that whole deal went down. And finally I didn't get my nap.  Which sounds funnier than it really is. I like to nap before I go gamble, especially when I'm up so early in the am for work.

So I went anyway, resisting superstition, and sat down just in time for seven straight losses AGAIN! Holy fornicating excrement! Oh, I can feel it coming now. This is the night I dump 40 or 60u or lose my discipline and over confidently/stubbornly re buy in and dump that too. Fork, I'm hoping I can just get back to even and bolt.

Well, even came pretty easy. As soon as I started making 3u bets I won several in a row and a parlay. Started halfway through the shoe and ended up +5u by the time it was over.

P
BB
PP
BBB
PPPP
BBB
P    I noticed one of alrelax's trends he mentioned, the 4321 pyramid, incomplete however
BB
P
B
PP
B
PPPPP
B
PP
B
PPP
B
P
BBB I buy in here
PPP
B
PPPP
B
PPP
BB
P
BBBBB
P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
BBBBB
P

The B streaks helped me and I was on those chops in between them.

Next shoe.

P
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
B
TIE
P

Lost 1u betting for tie first hand. And the second hand was a tie. *shrug* no big deal, that's not my bet. Won all of the P singles. Lost the first B double and won the second B double. The first B single was a loss but I hit 6-1 on the Player Dragon. Decided to bet all 9u profit on Player after the second B single. If I doubled my profit, I'd leave, if I lost my profit, I'd start over from even and try it again. TIE. Damnit. Then the entire table up and leaves, all as one group for the evening meal.
Well, I'm not betting every hand by myself. I got work in the morning, 9u will have to do. 9u it is.

[gr8player]

A +9 units ain't nothin' to sneeze at, HBS; good job on hangin' in there after the rough start.

Are you betting every hand?  It appears so, and it looks as if your play is a difficult read.

Now, just FYI, one could accomplish that same +9 units by simply flat-betting the recurring singles and doubles from those couple of shoes, with no draw-down at all.  Just sayin'.....might be a better strategy to hone-in or "specialize", if you will, on just a couple of familiar/favorite trend plays rather than attempting to beat anything and everything that a random shoe might be throwing at you.  Just sayin'....

Stay well.

[HunchBacShrimp]

GR8,

       I don't like betting every hand. I start off just betting for the 2h only, but as time goes by, as it seems to take 2hrs per shoe, I find myself betting more often. Betting for the chops, looking for a sleeper, betting that the 4th time in a row one side doubles, that it will actually triple. Betting 2 or 3u on the 2h, and then FLD for the rest of it hoping for a run. Which is getting me nowhere.

You're right, I need to exercise more patience and discipline for my preferred bet selection.

I was thinking the same exact thing this morning, I'd be better off with just the one bet, flat bet it, and look for the occasional parlay when I need it. This is what brought me better results a few weeks ago. The majority of these big draw downs are a result of too much action. And the draw downs aren't leaving me enough units for a mild progression when my selection tanks and I can't get ahead flat betting it. I'm relying to heavily on parlay attempts which quite a few of failed last night.

Last night was 8hrs for 3u. Three units. I'm happy to be making forward progress, happy to have come back from a 36u draw down, but the grind is getting tiresome.

I hope you're enjoying your retirement, and are still having success at the tables. I look forward to reading a trip report if you make one.

Thanks for the response, but you could have told me Wednesday! [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley] ( my sessions are Thurs and Fri )

HBS

[gr8player]

Careful with those parlay attempts too, HBS.  Some shoes/sessions those "second wins" are rather scarce, and then you're consistently finding yourself "forfeiting" that initial win with each parlay failure.

Might be better to gauge your current hit rates; if you're not hitting twice IAR, cease the parlay move.  Later, maybe those second wins are coming a bit more often, and then the parlays will pay off.

Again, no one's forcing your play, it's all about you and the things that you yourself can (and cannot) control.  MM is certainly one of them that you can control.  Try utilizing a MM schematic that fits your current strike rates a bit better.

Take care.

[HunchBacShrimp]

Alright, I got me head bolted down a little tighter this week. Kinda. I decided to reduce my action, just play the 2h and leave it at that. And if I went into a draw down after a full shoe either progress my unit size up or start working the parlay. Then all day today as I prep myself mentally to go to the casino I'm seriously contemplating doubling my unit size from the get go. Two things I have to ponder.

1. I'm on a long winning streak, but I have an equal expectation of a losing session, and of an easy session. As most of my sessions lately have been quite a struggle.

2. If I double my unit size will I be able to A.) maintain composure through (what is becoming a normal) 40 to 60 unit draw down that is actually 80 to 120 of my normal base unit? and B.) will I push through for 20 double size units (40 base units) or make an exit when I hit 20 base units? I don't really want to double my exposure to the house and halve my stop win. I feel that's a bad idea.

So, as I drive to the casino I scrap all that as I'm still undecided. Them bolts have loosened themselves up. Not recalling much of an FLD shoe lately, I decide I'm going to bet FLD. 3u with a 1u follow up. NO FORKING PLAYER DRAGON BONUS EITHER. And If that fails for the first shoe I'll evaluate my draw down and hit it again. ( I like FLD over OLD, I must have old school blood in me alrelax)

You won't believe this shoe...

BBB
PPPPPP
B
PP
B
P
B
P
BB
P
BB
P
BB
P
B
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P   I show up and buy in here
BBB   3u bet win, 1u bet win, 1u bet loss  Can't remember last time I won my first bet.
PP     3u bet win, 1u bet loss
BBBBBBBBBBBBB  13B! OUT OF NOWHERE.
PP
B

I'm on that B streak from the 2hole. Betting conservatively but who knew? However I did make my 5u bet after it hit 7B. Happy to see it win this time. When the streak is over I'm +26u after tax and tips. I color up, but before I go I bet 3u P going to the 2h win, 1u for the 3h and lose. +28u and I decide to go. I guess I should have stayed and bet 3u again for B to double and rode out my luck until I lost my first 3u bet.

So +28u tonight. Not sure If I'll go tomorrow or not. I walked into this shoe at exactly the right time.

Btw, a nice thrice repeating BBP pattern followed closely by 7 two by twos.

[AsymBacGuy]

Awesome shoe indeed.

as.

[HunchBacShrimp]

11u tonight. Just a little over 3 shoes in 6 hrs. Nothing too stressful, opened up with some losses but not heavy. I did eventually manage to find myself in a 30u draw down but it didn't last long at all. Was the 3rd shoe before I procured a single unit of profit. Felt lively enough, but didn't feel like betting through another shoe. Bet tie for the first hand 3 times and lost, was really hoping to hit it on the first hand of shoe 4 for an extra 8u. Missed it by 1 

I usually maintain a high level of urgency, well maybe urgency is too strong of a word. I usually act like the money is very important to me, I keep the pressure up to get back to even. It's a difficult balance to maintain. You can't be too scared to bet, and you can't be too unconcerned about the money either. Tonight, I was pretty blase about it. A couple of times I was 5u down and was considering leaving, just cause I thought it was no big deal to have a losing session of 5u.

That's the exact opposite of being stressed over an impending losing session. I don't know what that was all about, but I don't like it. It's important to maintain a high energy level for trying to win.

The only thing of significance to report is several players were standing around waiting for an opening, so they opened up another table. That table filled up with anxious players. It only dealt one shoe. And I wish I could have been on it. It was full of streaks of 4 to 7. Just full of them. Less than 10 singles, no more than 3 in a row. No isolated streaks, always groups of them. The whole table busted. Not one winner.

Oh, and it seems I finally kicked my Player Dragon Bonus habit. Just in time too. I didn't see a single 30-1 or 10-1 payout. Not in 3 full shoes. Glad I don't have that thing sucking units out of me anymore.

HBS

[HunchBacShrimp]

Well, I'm a great deal less stressed at the tables now. I'm sure it is temporary, bound to change as soon as my next losing session hits.

I need to develop an exit strategy. I was up 24u when I went to the cage, I should have stayed until I lost 2 bets in a row. I was up 15u three times in the first shoe, kept pushing for 20u, kept losing the 5u bet, the 8u parlay lost, then the 8u parlay won at the end to get back to even. Whole time I'm thinking I've screwed the pooch on this, I should have bolted with a high of 17u.

First shoe..

PPPPP
BB
PPPP
BB
P
BB
P
B
PPPPP
BB
P
B
P
BB
P
B
PP
B
PPP
B
PPPPPP
BB
PPP
BBB
P
B
P
BBBBB
P
B
PPPP
BB
PP
BB
PPP
B

It should have been a cake walk, and I was up early, and stayed up through most of it. But walked into a strong player dominant shoe, Banker never did recover. I found my self losing betting strong that B would finally make it to the 3h. 6 doubles before it happened, then only a 3 and I'm off of those P streaks, no betting, letting P get ahead anticipating a strong return of Banker. Never happened.

Disgruntled that I'm back to even after that shoe. I bet tie first hand for the second shoe hoping it hits and I'm going home with 16u. No luck. Well, luck was right around the corner...

Shoe 2

BBBBBB
P
BBB
PPPPPP
B I color right here +24 was tempted to leave in the middle of the P streak when I hit +20, but can't bring myself to bail in the middle of a streak. Now I'm at the cage and I see Banker hit 4 more times. I should have been on those, I got 4 red chips burning a hole in my pocket. Dealer waves me over. I place a bet for B to hit the 6 hole. It does. +26u. I same bet and B does not make it to 7. +24. I bet that P doubles and it doesn't. +22u and I leave.

I should have stayed to begin with for 2 consecutive losses. It would have made me 6 more units. I'm not crying over spilled milk. I just need a better exit strategy. So +22u for the night. Well, 21.9 if you want to get technical, I had to pay tax on my win.

HBS

[ezmark]

HBS

It has been said before, play within your comfort zone is the only key to reduce stress.

Your comfort zone, after a while, may change with your 'confidence in your winning methods.'

[HunchBacShrimp]

So, this thread has turned into a trip report blog of sorts.

Well, my exit strategy of hitting my win goal and continuing to bet didn't work well tonight. 4 times I hit 20u and 4 times I bet again and lost. I kept the pressure up to not to settle for anything less than 20u. Probably not the wisest thing to do. Confidence was high because my biggest draw down was 3u. Lost my first bet of 3u, and from there I stayed ahead the whole time. I did get back down to even several times, but I didn't let it get to me.

About 4 hours. 1.5 shoes. +20u profit after 2u in tips.

Final bet was 4u on Player. Player has six and will stand and banker gets a three card 6. Tie, Argh. I stay up for 4u. Player gets a three card 7 and then Banker gets a three card 7. Tie again! ARGH! Finally Player wins with a three card 9. Yay. I'm not betting again. I'm taking my 20u and leaving.

I didn't go Thursday night, I had work at 630 am Friday. I didn't want to feel pressured to leave if I got caught in a marathon session with a deep draw down. Not sure if I will go Saturday night, but I want to.

HBS