So I am a 22 year old Customer Service Rep and I make 350 a week after taxes plus i have this nice side business that i make 400- 800 dollars a week off of. On average I would say I make 1000 dollars a week. For the last 5 months I have went in the casino 4x's a week at the very least. I have a goal of making 100-200 a day . Im in it for the slow grind I have no problem sitting there for 6 hours to make a little over $100. By the way I only live 4 minutes away from the casino. Exactly 1 year after I turned 21 I was down 16k. 5 months later which is today Im up 12k. So in total Im down 4k. ANYWAYS HERE IS HOW I've BEEN BETTING!
1. Walk around the tables, find a streak of 4 and bet $10 against the streak.
2. Win or Lose I won't bet again until I find another streak of 4.
3. NO betting back to back on the same table
4. $20 BET AFTER 1 LOSS
5. $50 BET AFTER 2 LOSS
6. After 3 losses Start from$10 again.
I know it takes forever but can someone tell me why my system is flawed??
Hi,
May be reading this could help you a bit: http://betselection.cc/gambling-philosophy/if-roulette-has-no-memory-why-there-hasn't-been-succesive-36-hits-of-an-ec/
that's a good starting point Al
The link is a nice post which sums it up
All systems are flawed . The main reason is because of the green pocket (s) . Take away the green pockets and actually you would still not win long term. .
I could easily see this being a consistent winner
Quote from: Dr. Mabuse on August 29, 2014, 03:44:32 PM... for about 25 years and doing very well with it. Being on the feet watching the board is the only draw back. since the casino wants you to play every spin when sitting down.
The mathboyzz attitude won`t sit well with me. It`s the odds that help you win.
Cheers .
Yes, I've been saying the same thing for as long.
You have to look for the weakest part of a game, then become an expert across-the-board at that particular one aspect.
Quote from: NathanDetroit on August 29, 2014, 12:41:33 PM
This young gentleman knows what he is doing. Q.E.D.
Quote from: Kingspin on August 29, 2014, 09:02:39 AM
All systems are flawed . The main reason is because of the green pocket (s) . Take away the green pockets and actually you would still not win long term. .
I think this for baccarat .
Practically, your system dictates that the ">4->4->4" streaks' sequence will show up in a proportionally smaller amount than the other 7 occurences.
More precisely, it seems you think that the sequence >4 - >4 - 4 is more prevalent than the counterpart >4->4->4, because it's the spot you bet the most.
Even if it's true that over the long run 4 streaks are slight more prevalent than superior streaks, 3-term negative consecutive sequences will give you hard times.
I'm asking if for "no betting back to back on the same table" you mean you make just a single bet per each shoe.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2014, 09:57:06 PM
...3-term negative consecutive sequences will give you hard times.
You asked for flaws, and AsymBacGuy has stated the most relevent one. and that's only 3-term. God help you recover from a 6-term negative consecutive sequence.
I think the post is pretty self explanatory but I will give what I think he is saying... yes he only takes one shot at it after red or black goes 4 deep. If he losses he goes to another wheel!!!
he can't go 6 losses deep!!! he plays 10, 20, 50 win or losses he returns to a 10 bet!!
I have several of these that I use when walking around casinos in Vegas (diff money management) but they always seem too work and I have been doing it for years !! Its good pocket change to use for your real games
He could bet 10 20 50 moving around tables and lose all three. -80
Keep moving around tables and bet 10 20 50 and lose all three. -160
Now he needs to win around 12 sequences in a row to recover the loss.
Not so easy to do, and if he loses again?...well...
Tomla understands what I'm saying. Thx everybody for taking the time to read my post. $150, $130, $110 profit from my last three sessions total I'm up near 400 dollars for about 16 hours of casino time. Its unusual for me to play after im up 200 but i was feeling it and starting betting 30 instead of 10 and it worked but i don't want to get use to it im do for a losing day...I should have stated in my original post I never walk In with more then 500 and like I said If I lose trying to break the streak of 4 in a row I WILL NOT TRY TO BREAK IT ON THE NEXT HAND I AM WAITING FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF 4. Its working for me and when my bankroll hits 50k I'm gonna aim for 300 a day. Since nobody has a name for this system I here by name this system THE KUSH AND ORANGE JUICE SYSTEM [smiley]aes/cigarette.png[/smiley]
Quote from: Rinzler on August 29, 2014, 07:02:21 PM
Yes, I've been saying the same thing for as long.
You have to look for the weakest part of a game, then become an expert across-the-board at that particular one aspect.
CHEERS AND MAY THE ODDS BE IN OUR FAVOR
its actually pretty ez to win 10-15 x in a row with this type of thing,, I have played a week in vegas (baccarat) and did one of these silly gizmos walking around between casinos --say 4 hours during the day and never had a loss
How are u doing with this system as of late?
Quote from: chiraqi92 on August 28, 2014, 06:00:13 PM
So I am a 22 year old Customer Service Rep and I make 350 a week after taxes plus i have this nice side business that i make 400- 800 dollars a week off of. On average I would say I make 1000 dollars a week. For the last 5 months I have went in the casino 4x's a week at the very least. I have a goal of making 100-200 a day . Im in it for the slow grind I have no problem sitting there for 6 hours to make a little over $100. By the way I only live 4 minutes away from the casino. Exactly 1 year after I turned 21 I was down 16k. 5 months later which is today Im up 12k. So in total Im down 4k. ANYWAYS HERE IS HOW I've BEEN BETTING!
1. Walk around the tables, find a streak of 4 and bet $10 against the streak.
2. Win or Lose I won't bet again until I find another streak of 4.
3. NO betting back to back on the same table
4. $20 BET AFTER 1 LOSS
5. $50 BET AFTER 2 LOSS
6. After 3 losses Start from$10 again.
I know it takes forever but can someone tell me why my system is flawed??
Can't fault this strategy. This is very similar to how I first started plating Baccarat back in
2004. Stay on your feet, hover around the tables looking at the score boards for any 4 streak and then bet the opposite.
I did things slightly different, firstly my MM was a Fibonacci, plus after any loss I stayed there until a win, otherwise you are just playing a bunch of 50-50 outcomes, I subscribe to Barstows principals
'diminishing probability.' as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent".I sometime hedged bets on other tables. Yes I got hit occasionally, sometimes I let long streak go, recovery modes etc. All up inside a few months I pulled in $20k using a $25 base bet despite being hit on the odd times. So yes I would say the strategy works, but you need balls of steel to use the Fibo,
how and why this morphed years later into "the pitboss method" I've no idea. Would I recommend my approach, not really it is too stressful and risky for seasoned players, if your young and the gung ho type :P
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on September 18, 2014, 02:38:22 PM
Can't fault this strategy. This is very similar to how I first started plating Baccarat back in 2004. Stay on your feet, hover around the tables looking at the score boards for any 4 streak and then bet the opposite.
I did things slightly different, firstly my MM was a Fibonacci, plus after any loss I stayed there until a win, otherwise you are just playing a bunch of 50-50 outcomes, I subscribe to Barstows principals 'diminishing probability.' as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent".
I sometime hedged bets on other tables. Yes I got hit occasionally, sometimes I let long streak go, recovery modes etc. All up inside a few months I pulled in $20k using a $25 base bet despite being hit on the odd times. So yes I would say the strategy works, but you need balls of steel to use the Fibo, how and why this morphed years later into "the pitboss method" I've no idea. Would I recommend my approach, not really it is too stressful and risky for seasoned players, if your young and the gung ho type :P
I concur...it works more than it doesn't...but you have to have the guts and bank to play it thru
No guts no glory...you can't start a progression and then just bail on it because you get weak in the knees. I like the FIBO alot for a bunch of different plays
Quote from: chiraqi92 on August 28, 2014, 06:00:13 PM
So I am a 22 year old Customer Service Rep and I make 350 a week after taxes plus i have this nice side business that i make 400- 800 dollars a week off of. On average I would say I make 1000 dollars a week. For the last 5 months I have went in the casino 4x's a week at the very least. I have a goal of making 100-200 a day . Im in it for the slow grind I have no problem sitting there for 6 hours to make a little over $100. By the way I only live 4 minutes away from the casino. Exactly 1 year after I turned 21 I was down 16k. 5 months later which is today Im up 12k. So in total Im down 4k. ANYWAYS HERE IS HOW I've BEEN BETTING!
1. Walk around the tables, find a streak of 4 and bet $10 against the streak.
2. Win or Lose I won't bet again until I find another streak of 4.
3. NO betting back to back on the same table
4. $20 BET AFTER 1 LOSS
5. $50 BET AFTER 2 LOSS
6. After 3 losses Start from$10 again.
I know it takes forever but can someone tell me why my system is flawed??
Hi Chiraqi92.
Your method of play is not flawed although it is limiting.
Approximately 75% of the time, the event will be Neutral and the remaining 25% is either Opposite-Repeats.
Betting against 4 in a row is part of the 75% Neutral events. I learned the details of this from one of my baccarat mentors.
You don't need to change it if it's working for you. Just learn to minimize your risk and you can hit that 50K goal of yours.
It may take some time because like what I said, your method of play is limiting but it's doable. Besides, it's your money & time that you're risking.
Good luck with your bac play! ;)
Natural 9
I love his play--I have done similar and still do in between bac----(hope you edge for a long time?)
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on September 18, 2014, 02:38:22 PM
' as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent".[/b]
I like this statement providing to add the word "rare", so now looking like this:
as any repeated pattern of RARE chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent as.
I'm up 7200 since my last post. At one point I was up 10,500 but I lost all self control and lost 3300 in one night. Caught 14 bankers in a row and I just couldn't stop trying to break the streak. [smiley]aes/sick.png[/smiley]
Are u still using the same method/system?
Quote from: chiraqi92 on October 18, 2014, 09:57:22 PM
At one point I was up 10,500 but I lost all self control and lost 3300 in one night. Caught 14 bankers in a row and I just couldn't stop trying to break the streak. [smiley]aes/sick.png[/smiley]
Like I said, your strategy is too limiting to be used in the long run.
Losing 3,300 in one night has nothing to do with self-control.
It's all about knowing the different shifting of events happening in a shoe.
A 4-in-a-row is only one event happening in a shoe. Overall, the shoe averages 12 different events per shoe.
You're missing a lot with your strategy. But if you're content with 1-3 unit profits only then, continue what you're doing.
Play everyday at the same casino using your strategy and you will see the adjustments that the casinos will make to your play.
Natural 9
QuoteIt's all about knowing the different shifting of events happening in a shoe.
What kind of events are you talking about, i understand you talking about the random flow, can you explain this furhter.
QuoteOverall, the shoe averages 12 different events per shoe.
What do you mean by this? What is the 12 different events you talking about?
I know that depending on methodology there will be different events to chart.
Cheers
Still going strong? I hope it is!
Quote from: chiraqi92 on August 30, 2014, 02:21:48 AM
I'm up near 400 dollars for about 16 hours of
My guys working around my business here are making from $20 to $30 hr reg time and 2'xs that after hours. They are getting way more than 40 hours a week.
No investment of money to lose.
16 Hours for $400 with a possible loss factor. No benefits, no job security. That ugly gut wrenching and ill feeling when you lose money you really needed.
Don't glamourize it cause it won't work for most trying it.
Okay, carry on, hope you win a ton!!!! Seriously. Just throwing something out there is all.
Quote from: Natural 9 on October 19, 2014, 02:52:28 AM
Like I said, your strategy is too limiting to be used in the long run.
Losing 3,300 in one night has nothing to do with self-control.
It's all about knowing the different shifting of events happening in a shoe.
A 4-in-a-row is only one event happening in a shoe. Overall, the shoe averages 12 different events per shoe.
You're missing a lot with your strategy. But if you're content with 1-3 unit profits only then, continue what you're doing.
Play everyday at the same casino using your strategy and you will see the adjustments that the casinos will make to your play.
Natural 9
My casino bankroll is at 14700 since October 18th. I decided to bet 200 flat on breaking a streak of greater then 4. Had 2 bad nights where I lost 800 (my max) but I lost count of how many 600 dollar win sessions I had. Hopefully I don't hit a losing streak!!!
With all due respect and no ill-will intended. I am sure you guys all tell the truth.
With that said. In all my years of play, I have yet to see a player sit down and play one or two or three or four hands and stop. YES., I have seen a few back bettors standing up where they allow over the shoulder betting where you hand your wager to another player seated, if he is under the table limit, and he can place it for you, etc. Usually, the few times I been to those 'racsinos' the dual purpose horse race track, the table with several larger bettors were on streaks and winning. Minnesota/one in Iowa. Otherwise, like I said, I have never seen it at regular casinos.
Plenty of you talk about how you will only play a select few hands, I believe you. I just never saw it like all you keep saying. I seen plenty play every 4th or 5th or even 6th hand. Or sit 5 or 8 out. Or play 1/3 or 1/2 the shoe. Okay, I said my piece.
Chiraqi92
Assuming you are still betting for just the one hand after the 4th in a string....after a loss do you hang around and see the next outcomes?
I have had better results playing mild progressions with such a trigger playing for 3-4 hands after the trigger. Stopping on the win....then picking up a little more of the progression on the next attack in case of a loss (nothing crazy like a Martingale and maybe even a little too conservative sometimes by re-starting a step or two back of where I should be in the progression....not trying to get it all back...just putting a band-aid on the bleeding so to speak)
Just curious how many losses would be avoided by playing a little deeper and of course weighing that against the larger bust if it doesn't work out.
I know what the numbers would dictate...just looking for what your experience has been if you had tracked past the loss.
Chiraqi92
Its great that you have turned this into a flat bet!!!! Continued success!!!
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on September 18, 2014, 02:38:22 PM
I sometime hedged bets on other tables. Yes I got hit occasionally, sometimes I let long streak go, recovery
The only thing I will bring up is the above quote. Something I never ever understood with a few bac players I seen. Why would any one in the world let a long streak go???
Simply, all you have to do is pull down one (1) winning wager on the streak early-let the same wager ride and pull down each winning hand to your bank roll. You only lose the very last hand that falls off!
Maybe again, I smelled too many chemicals from my last haz mat spill job. I guess.
kimske at my local casino in Queens NY, the baccarat machines are filled with asian players. i see how they play. they play with the trend always never against it.
Quote from: RichBailey86 on October 31, 2014, 11:02:11 PM
kimske at my local casino in Queens NY, the baccarat machines are filled with asian players. i see how they play. they play with the trend always never against it.
I agree with you RB86. :nod:
The basic strategies of Asian players are follow the trend otherwise, anti-trend it. ;)
This strategy will work sometimes but not all the time. :nope:
Trending and Anti-trending are easy to counter by casinos. :nod:
Casinos will not give us easy money. This is the hard truth. :no:
Natural 9 C:-)
Quote from: Rinzler on August 29, 2014, 07:02:21 PM
You have to look for the weakest part of a game, then become an expert across-the-board at that particular one aspect.
I'd like to know what "the weakest part of the game" means. There is no "weakest" part, because all patterns are equally likely, and no pattern cause or indicates any future pattern.
Quote from: alrelax on October 27, 2014, 01:13:01 PM
My guys working around my business here are making from $20 to $30 hr reg time and 2'xs that after hours. They are getting way more than 40 hours a week.
No investment of money to lose.
16 Hours for $400 with a possible loss factor. No benefits, no job security. That ugly gut wrenching and ill feeling when you lose money you really needed.
Don't glamourize it cause it won't work for most trying it.
Okay, carry on, hope you win a ton!!!! Seriously. Just throwing something out there is all.
He never said he was doing this to make a living...apples and oranges. [smiley]aes/sad.png[/smiley]
chiraqi92 how are you going ?.bankroll stil intact ?
Just an update my bankroll is at 23k BUT If the seahawks wouldve just gave the damn ball to lynch I wouldve had an extra 6k . Really 12k cause my bet was 6k. I've had 7 losing nights but for the most part a lot of $200-600 winning nights. More wins then losses that's what matters to me.
Quote from: Natural 9 on October 19, 2014, 02:52:28 AM
Like I said, your strategy is too limiting to be used in the long run.
Losing 3,300 in one night has nothing to do with self-control.
It's all about knowing the different shifting of events happening in a shoe.
A 4-in-a-row is only one event happening in a shoe. Overall, the shoe averages 12 different events per shoe.
You're missing a lot with your strategy. But if you're content with 1-3 unit profits only then, continue what you're doing.
Play everyday at the same casino using your strategy and you will see the adjustments that the casinos will make to your play.
Natural 9
It had everything to do with self control I waswalking around making $200-$400 bets. No system just bets. I couldve walked awaay with the 3300 plus the 500 I was up and that's why I onlyaim to make about 300 a session
still think this is one of the most overlooked threads on the board....... keep on winning
Quote from: Tomla on February 11, 2015, 07:23:36 PM
still think this is one of the most overlooked threads on the board....... keep on winning
Appreciate the feed back. I just want to make it clear my gameplan is not the same as the orignial post I've made. I just make a 100-200 bet when I see 4 in a row. If I lose 800 I walk away. I feel like I can make a living off this because I know to walk away when im up 200 -400 up. And every time I lost my 800 at one point I was up at least 200.don't be greedy and it will work.
Good going Chiraqi92.
Placing 3 to 5 bets then walking out is a good short term plan. Look for shoes with '4 in a row' or less.
In the long term over a few hundred shoes I would think the total number of '4 in a row' would be close to the total number of 'greater than 4 in a row'.
Your choice of which shoe to play will be your advantage.
It makes no difference what has previously transpired in a shoe. If you see a shoe were many streaks have stopped at four, then I would guess the next four streak won't stop at four.
If you're feeling like an superstitious old timer, I would look for shoes with existing streaks of 7 or more, because statistically there shouldn't be too many of those in any single given shoe. Then again every hand is independent so anything can happen, yes the total of streaks greater than four is equal to the number of streak ending at four, which is why flat betting is a flawed betting option.
Rolex....now that you're older, and have more experience you value betting progressions and money management more do than bet selection? Is this correct?
I test a variant of this method and it work pretty good.
Cheers
Rolex-thank you for your reply. So if this is the case...then you must also put discipline as a premium to progressions and mm. So a solid stop loss is in order....
It is not improbable that you see success with this strategy, but that doesn't mean it's right.
Say I told you the next 4 cards in the shoe after this streak of 4 happens, but you didn't know the order.
8 8 10 10. What will the next outcome be? There is no way to tell. You could say that if there are two 8's, then the Player would be favored because the sequence is heavy on high cards, therefore giving the Player a higher chance at winning the hand. But the Banker is just as likely to get the same two cards the Player will get.
Player Possibilities
8-10 (Natural 8 Tie)
8-10 (Natural 8 Tie)
8-8 (Banker Draw)
10-8 (Natural 8 Tie)
10-8 (Natural 8 Tie)
10-10 (Player Draw)
The only safe assumption you can make GIVEN THAT YOU KNOW THE CARDS is that Tie is the best bet you can make, with 75%+ (With 7.6% Chance of Drawing 6) chance of occurring. Unless you know the order of the cards, there is no safe assumption on whether Player or Banker will win.
The Tomla is correct, this is the best thread on the forum. In the end though it's balls and bankroll that separate the winner from the loser, hey hey.
yeah with this one you can choose several different kinds of progressions--im not a fan of martingale so i wouldn't use that...but most other progressions should get you chips
I don't know how they do it - i can not bet aginst 4 and win more then i lose - not even if i apply regression ...
Cheers
now the understanding is after 4 xxxx you bet for the other side once 0, if you lose you wait for the next set-up
Quote from: Tomla on February 21, 2015, 07:55:26 PM
now the understanding is after 4 xxxx you bet for the other side once 0, if you lose you wait for the next set-up
#1, you have to have patience and discipline and live within a 10-15 minute drive (like I do). I still wouldn't play this because I see 4's turn into bigger runs quite often, maybe 50-50. So, what works for one doesn't always work for another...I personally wouldn't play this in a 100 years. Not for me....
everything is 50/50
Quote from: Tomla on February 21, 2015, 10:33:55 PM
everything is 50/50
BS. Alvins TBA is 90%+. You and the rest are missing out. Gold bars are being poured right now with the winnings and you are sleeping.....Geez, the nerve of some people. 50-50.........
Quote from: Tomla on February 21, 2015, 10:33:55 PM
everything is 50/50
If OP is able to win betting to break 4s which will produce a perfect equal number itlr, I'm just wondering what he could make betting toward 4+ Banker streaks after a B triple and at the same time betting to break 3s Player streaks.
Yeah, there are some arguments about the fact that betting P after a given B streak won't pay any tax, but itlr and generally speaking and without very deep registrations it's always better trying to catch the most likely (even slight) than the contrary.
And regarding the original method no need to wait 4s streaks. We easily might add up to our playing list patterns like BBPP, PPBB or BPBP and PBPB and so on.
as.
i have no issue going against p 3 streaks !!!!!
hey chiraqi 92 ,hows it going still stopping those 4s ?.
The premise of this bet is great , its almost worth a martingale, separate the bets, one betting line for player 4 the other for banker 5....i doubt that I would ever see more than five player streaks above 4 in a row. Same for Banker streaks above 5 (given that this is bacc --anything can and will happen)
Hi Tomla,
What MM do you suggest for this betting strategy ( different progressions for P & B).
Thanks,
probably a labby so you can break it up if you have a hard one
P doesn't streak to 4 too often. Not very many betting opportunities. Though itlr it streaks to 4 as often as it should and it streaks beyond four an equal number of times. However, if I were to engage in such a bet with a martingale I would only bet against a streak of four P early in a shoe, and stay with that shoe/table if I lost waiting for more opportunities. It should make no difference from one table to the next but like what was mentioned earlier, I wouldn't expect to see P streak to 5 and beyond 5 times in a row without stopping at 4 once. It may be an illusion of perception but it seems to me you could get hit by five streaks of P greater than 4 five times in a row traveling from shoe to shoe. Especially if come across a shoe that already streaked to 4 once, that you did not bet on, and now you are taking a stab at the second occurrence.
It should make no difference, and a different MM that is a bit more durable than a martingale would handle 5 liar better. It's all a matter of perception I guess.
the system works! i use it in roulette...i wait for five in a row B/R, Hi/Low, O/E and alternating B/R/B/R/B then bet for B again...same for all the rest as well...your only "flaw" is TIME in case their is a losing streak. it is easy to get it back with simple progression 5 10 15 20 modified "fooproof" or D'lambert but takes time. $5 bets bankroll of $1,000 or $2,000...you are playing with the odds on your side
Probability of streaks
Heads Tails
streak 1 5000 5000
streak 2 2500 2500
streak 3 1250 1250
streak 4 625 625
streak 5 312.5 312.5
streak 6 156.25 156.25
and so on and so on
Quote from: chiraqi92 on August 28, 2014, 06:00:13 PM
So I am a 22 year old Customer Service Rep and I make 350 a week after taxes plus i have this nice side business that i make 400- 800 dollars a week off of. On average I would say I make 1000 dollars a week. For the last 5 months I have went in the casino 4x's a week at the very least. I have a goal of making 100-200 a day . Im in it for the slow grind I have no problem sitting there for 6 hours to make a little over $100. By the way I only live 4 minutes away from the casino. Exactly 1 year after I turned 21 I was down 16k. 5 months later which is today Im up 12k. So in total Im down 4k. ANYWAYS HERE IS HOW I've BEEN BETTING!
1. Walk around the tables, find a streak of 4 and bet $10 against the streak.
2. Win or Lose I won't bet again until I find another streak of 4.
3. NO betting back to back on the same table
4. $20 BET AFTER 1 LOSS
5. $50 BET AFTER 2 LOSS
6. After 3 losses Start from$10 again.
I know it takes forever but can someone tell me why my system is flawed??
At times, yes it will work and at times it will not.
switching tables may be his success
see a streak of 4
bet against it
win or lose switch tables
Tested that on those albahala 100k hands. Started great and ended .... ::)
chiraqi92's last post on this was over a year and a half ago.
Denzie, when you tested what was the progression, bankroll, when you win a coup, start the betting cycle with base bet...i've tested and played live about 10,000 spins. Base bet $5 have not blown out $2,000 bankroll. Maybe nothing lasts forever 8)
bruceg, if you want to use a progression you must select when to use it. If you just blindly barge ahead with it, you will run into the sequence that kills it. Now the mathBoyz will tell you that this is not possible. But the Bayesian_InferenceBoyz will tell you that it is completely possible. Conditional probability is a known capacity. I'm not saying you will avoid the killer sequence, I'm just saying that you don't have to use it during a losing streak for instance, as a good example.