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[alrelax]

Let's review the that famous/infamous 'Martingale' betting strategy that is so widely endorsed and swore by on so many forums out there.

Let's get it straight up front whom is preaching it.  IMO it is those systems sellers and those that are the classic armchair quarterback with their selective free-test game simulators to prove their theories and how easy it is to beat the game of baccarat. 

It's the end of the month so I take an hour or and scan most of the forums out there.  Nothing has really  changed, plenty of Martingale swear-bys with anywhere from 6 to 12 repeative doubles to recoup the losses and win one unit.

Well, before you start subscribing to such a strategy and theory, you better realize the numbers involved, as well as table limits, both min and max wagering.

Martingale is simple.  Wager on the same thing, no matter what it is with doubling the next wager after a losing one.  Does not matter if you are wagering for the same side to repeat itself or say chop-chop.  Whatever you are wagering for, if you lose, the very next wager is double the amount, wagering double each bet until you win and recoup the losses and profit one unit, your very first wager you lost.

Sounds good when forum people put it into their agendas and justify risking the Martingale increasing amounts each time.

Well I will tell you honestly how I have physically witnessed countless people lose huge sums of buy-in risk capital on just the very belief of Martingale wagering.  I see it all the time, through the other's own admission or not.

Some swear by 6 times and others swear by 12 times. 

1.00
2.00
4.00
8.00
16.00
32.00  6th wager risked $63.00
64.00
128.00
256.00
512.00
1,024.00
2,048.00  12th wager risked $4,095.00

5.00
10.00
20.00
40.00
80.00
160.00  6th wager risked $315.00
320.00
640.00
1,280.00
2,560.00
5,120.00
10,240.00  12th wager risked $20,475.00

25.00
50.00
100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00  6th wager risked $1,575.00
1,600.00
3,200.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00 
51,200.00  12th wager risked $102,375.00

50.00
100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00
1,600.00  6th wager risked $3,150.00
3,200.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00
51,200.00
104,400.00  12th wager risked $206,750.00

100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00
1,600.00
3,200.00  6th wager risked $6,300.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00
51,200.00
104,400.00
208,800.00  12th wager risked $415,500.00

Okay, I totaled out 6 and 12 Martingale wagers for $1.00, $5.00, $25.00, $50.00 and $100.00 beginning bets above. Just for comparison I throw in the $1.00 and $5.00 bets, but I have never seen a brick and motar casino offering such on their live tables.

As far as limits it is pretty much the following:

$10.00/$1,000.00

$25.00/$1,000.00-2,000.00-2,500.00 and sometimes $5,000.00 (very few $$10,000.00)

$50.00/$2,000.00-$2,500.00-$5,000.00 and $10,000.00

$100.00/$10,000.00

$200.00/$15,000.00

$300.00-$500.00/$20,000.00 or $25,000.00

There is one casino outside of Chicago that has been offering $10.00/$100,000.00.  Yes, $100,000.00.  If they are still offering it, I don't know in 2022.

At a decent table, you'll get to the 7th, maybe the 8 th wager before hitting table max limits.  Maybe less at a lot of places.  Reference the $25.00/$50.00/$100.00 bets.

Now, as far as risk, so many people are hell bent on the 4-5 or 6 spot/space NOT repeating 'whatever' to break the losing bad luck/bad choice they made several times, they absolutely believe that is all that can/will happen.  Well you better believe that is why the casino allows scoring and even puts up a score board for you! 

Martingale does not and cannot stop Variances from coming out to kill you and take your 4th through 12th risked Martingale wager in a heart beat!! 

Something to always remember. 

1). Everything will not happen.
2). Everything wil happen.
3). Everything looks like it will happen but doesn't
      then it does when you do the opposite.

You think and believe baccarat is a 50/50 game, it is not, not by far for the few shoes you sit down to play. 

Here look at this picture of a score board at a live casino.  It is a $50.00 min to $10,000.00 max wager.  Pretty standard, the $10,000.00 table limit is usually either a $50.00 or $100.00 min, depending on how busy they are.

If you were on the Players side when that Banker streak of 14 hit, you would have been required to have $835,200.00 to wager the 15 times at a $50.00 table.  But no casino in the world would allow that kind of table max wager anyway. $10,000.00 would be just about the highest almost anywhere. 

13th wager $208,800.00
14th wager $417,600.00
15th wager $835,200.00

You see what I mean now?

PLUS, VERY IMPORTANT:  Add up your occasional Martingale loss to the max allowed to the table limits.  Then add up how many little tiny first round wagering minimums you have to profit to make up a few of those maxed out Martingale losses that will come, I promise you they will.  No doubt about it.

Also, in the picture of the scoreboard below, look at the Players little streaks.  Say you were on Bankers side.  You would have faced 2 times a 5 Players streak and you would have needed 6 Bankers to recoup your $50.00 bet.  That would have been $1,600.00 each time on the 6th wager at risk, with a total cumulatively risked at $3,150.00.  Then there was a 7 Player streak and you would have had a continuous Banker wager with the 8th one being $6,400.00.  You would have had a total of $12,750.00 at risk.  If it went once more on the Players, you could not have placed a $12,800.00 wager to recoup you lost attempts. 

You can't wager a few and then say it's not going to happen.  Thinking you will stay on the ones that suddenly revert to what you wanted and you will stop wagering on the ones that might take all your Martingale wagers. 

I do occasionally engage in a negative Martingale if I am hell-bent on something I see or am following, etc.  But I will limit myself to 2 maybe 3 times in all cases on the 'chase' back.  Let's just say, I have learned from experience. And I admit, I have learned the hard way.

Think about the really insane drama dribble people are putting out there on the internet, forums, YouTube, systems sellers, etc., etc. It's sad in so many ways.

The real key to winning.......Thinking with a clear frame of mind. 

Play smart.  Play wise.

[KungFuBac]

Personally, I see significantly more players at my casinos wagering steep negpro regimes (not necessarily true Marty's) vs aggressive posrpo.

The ones doing negpro  never(or seldom) do a pospro and wouldn't dare wager the same streak (while winning) with a similar marty-ratio pospro (say 124816) and back to the rack. Yet they will fight a similar length losing streak for a 1 unit profit back to the rack.

My thinking is the shoe or that streak doesn't know how we are wagering, how or why we are pressing(pospro or negpro), if we are pressing with just-won monies, fresh money from the atm, money won from last nights win,...etc. The shoe gives us the outcomes with little care as to what/why we are pressing or regressing.

My personal preference for a pospro is because my losing streaks have nearly all losses at the 1.0Unit size. Though a negpro player could argue that if I don't get a few hits in a row then I lose all my buyin too. They would be correct and that would be a fair counter argument.

This is where I think it is critical we (pospro players) know how many tries we need on average to get a win streak of X length, and most importantly what % increase that win contributes to our buyin.

As most will agree this metric is very important. We don't want too small of wager size to buyin as a multi-win pospro won't increase our buyin sufficiently to offset the drawdowns. On the other hand, too large a wager size to buyin and we may not have enough bets(bullets) to get the requisite # of hits-in-a-row, ...etc. This goes back to each of us and how risk averse we are at the tables with real money.

re: Negpro

*If I was going to do a negpro I would be more inclined to try to make say two swipes at a perceived EV+ spot then after two failures abort the mission there. Then do the same slightly larger 2-hit attack at the next perceived EV+ spot,...etc.

Vs

A multi-length marty series against one and only one spot with all my ammo.


Just my opinion and I welcome counter thoughts.


Cheers,

[alrelax]

Reference your response.

" Personally, I see significantly more players at my casinos wagering steep negpro regimes (not necessarily true Marty's) vs aggressive posrpo."

I started the above thread with defining real Martingale and all the endorsements and leads it gives the player to profit, that is always written about.  I added a few other things.  But YES, I see true Marty along with what you pointed out plenty.

" The ones doing negpro  never(or seldom) do a pospro and wouldn't dare wager the same streak (while winning) with a similar marty-ratio pospro (say 124816) and back to the rack. Yet they will fight a similar length losing streak for a 1 unit profit back to the rack."

Oh most definitely!  Not a doubt! My favorite that has done me right, is more along the lines of a second or third hand if winning parlay, maybe another one or 50% one taking down my original bet and then just ride it, pull down all the winning hand pay outs to my stack until I lose the original bet.

" The shoe gives us the outcomes with little care as to what/why we are pressing or regressing."

Absolutely 100%.  But we do, and sometimes that is exactly what dooms us, US.

" This is where I think it is critical we (pospro players) know how many tries we need on average to get a win streak of X length, and most importantly what % increase that win contributes to our buyin."

Wishful thinking, can't always be possible IMO.  Will always be at various times, I have written about this topic.  As in, just sitting down and not ready for it, or struggling along and frustration sets in, or desperation with a small piece of your buy in remaining, or it is happening and it didn't appear the way you envisioned, etc.  All harmful of course, but happens with extreme frequency.

" We don't want too small of wager size to buyin as a multi-win pospro won't increase our buyin sufficiently to offset the drawdowns."

Drawdowns are SUPER important and I have written about those.  A key factor in playing the game that most overlook or put out of their agenda.

My comments from my experience.

[alrelax]

As you said above, "(say 124816)".

Extremely  hard to get six unless you are on a great win streak of any kind, and then you should have pos pro Marty a few times and just pulling the winnings down until it finishes. 

But most don't think that way.  I favor 1-3-2-6 for many reasons.  But my way of thinking is, first wager we just don't know.  Risk capital applied.  We lost, fine, start over.  We won, invest a little more and second one is easy lots of times.  If we lose, start again.  If we win, now we have the 3rd and 4th covered and our risk capital returned.  If we win the 2nd, we also have a profit  if we lose the third.  In fact, that profit will be two units for another chance on the house.

There are others but that is my favorite along with simply allowing a few Marty's to build and let it ride.

[8OR9]

A negative martingale will always show a profit if:

1. You are using Elon Musk's net worth for your bankroll.
2. The casino will allow an unlimited maximum bet

If you meet these two qualifications, please respond to this post.

[KungFuBac]

Hi all,

alrelax:

"As you said above, "(say 124816)".

Extremely  hard to get six unless you are on a great win streak of any kind, and then you should have pos pro Marty a few times and just pulling the winnings down until it finishes. "

I agree six is difficult for the pospro player. Especially if consecutive wins on the same event pppppp or bbbbbb or pbpbpb , ...etc or any other identified event. I find more success (meaning longer length win streaks) by catching 1-3 winners out of a string and then setting that pressed-up wager aside. Then reapplying it later on when I perceive another EV+ event.

re: My example above from my previous post : (124816).
To clarify I was giving an example that a negpro bettor doing a marty will do that same 124816 negpro when they could do the same pospro and put a whole lot more back in the rack (after 5 events) by temporarily using just won monies to pad that wager. Though for me personally my emotions could handle the 5-tier pospro much easier than the same 5-tier negpro. I've utilized a Marty one (1) time years ago when I first started gambling. I immediately ran headon into a 9-Bank Run. I felt sick as well as foolish. I still get flashbacks just driving by my local bank branch.

As I think most will agree The 5iar streak (of whatever) doesn't know how we are wagering. The streak happens any way. I don't wager this type of  marty pospro (though Im certainly a pospro bettor).
Im not advocating for a marty pospro for 5x as above. Just using for illustration purposes as it seems many negpro players will usually chase an event for 5-8 tries.

I guess it just boils down to each of our personal comfort level and how averse we are to risk, coupled with our win goal.


alrelax:
"I favor 1-3-2-6 for many reasons.  But my way of thinking is, first wager we just don't know.  Risk capital applied.  We lost, fine, start over.  We won, invest a little more and second one is easy lots of times.  If we lose, start again.  If we win, now we have the 3rd and 4th covered and our risk capital returned.  If we win the 2nd, we also have a profit  if we lose the third.  In fact, that profit will be two units for another chance on the house."

    I like the pospro 1326 as well as the 1324. I don't do either on a regular basis though I've run sims with live data. Both have their merits. IMO what the bettor chooses to do after the 4th win (regress to 1 unit, regress 50%, et al,...etc) will have alot to do with which one performs best. Both are better than most pospros because they have their greatest amount $ risked at spot #2.

Obviously we will receive more 1iar >2iar >3iar >4iar win streaks,...etc.
However, its my belief they both help with the emotions (i.e., Our buyin monies are back in our rack after that 2nd hit). That allows one to go ahead and push the wager out there again and potentially catch several more winners because we "are risking non-buyin funds".

Its my belief our ratio of greed/fear has alot to do with ones success. Our individual choice of a negpro or pospro is how we display that ratio. To each their own.


Best of skill to all,

[KungFuBac]

8OR9 in post #4 above:

"A negative martingale will always show a profit if:

1. You are using Elon Musk's net worth for your bankroll.
2. The casino will allow an unlimited maximum bet "

I agree 8OR9--the limited max makes it difficult for the steep Marty approach.



I play with only one player that wins on a daily basis(meaning wins more days than not and wins more than he loses Net) wagering a steep marty negpro.

He is aggressive through 5 tiers, then a couple stutter steps where he wins a net+ though a little less, and a final tier that will recoup most of the losses but net-. He will risk approx 10K total loss in any single day.
Buyin for 3300,3400,and 3500. I see him bust one buyin very frequently(almost daily), the second buyin every few days, and the total wipeout happens every few weeks (that I observe). He doesn't change his wager size when he has to use the 2nd or 3rd buyin.

He mostly plays Bac, with some roulette b/r, and occasionally craps line bets(Dp/DC).
He doesn't wager against every streak. He typically identifies a complex event and after so many of said event shows consecutively, he then starts in and doesn't back off for 7-8 consec attempts.

IMO simply too much self-inflicted and unnecessary stress on ones buyin.


Continued Success,