Every game of chance should have a very spectrum of what would generally be considered the most conservative play to the most aggressive play. It might make a lot of sense to stay within the confines of the lowest risk conditions of conservative play and focus on building unit size.
Let's simplify by assuming flat betting in reasonable proportion to bank roll size. That is, take progression out of the picture to start.
I think that flat bets on a Bank/ Player dominant shoe that has drawn a lot of players is the most conservative play one can find. The shoe should have already had a clear majority of wins by either Bank or Player including one or more long dragons of many Bank/ Player in a row. For example, one might even see one Player then a series of Bank.
In addition, the attractiveness of the shoe should be supported by many, many players. That is, most every seat is occupied and even a crowd of players in the 2nd tier (standing behind) is evident. In short, they see a very good opportunity as well.
For baccarat, what would you consider to be the most conservative plays to make?
A good exercise is to take $100 and see how much you can build it to/ how long you can play.
Problems are, once there is a clear majority, usually with and with the utmost times---that majority will fizzle out.
Second, is the exact same with the "many, many players" you are referring to. Then you get it and it fizzles then they stay and lose their money they just made.
Oh, then you say, just get up and leave. Great in theory, but doesn't work darn near 100% of the times.
The casino dynamic is very real and very difficult at times. Often whole groups of players quit on a shoe rather than free hand a bunch.
I know all this, You just started to play, I have been playing since there was only the big kidney shaped 14 player tables and 3 dealers at each. No midi, no Macau style, etc. Much different player mentality with tons of camaraderie as a general aura. Prior to 10 years ago or so, there was no such thing as free hands, LOL.
Conservative play? Well, for starters stay far, far away from negative progressions -- doing that alone would save you a lot of monetary pain.
Quote from: 21 Aces on September 15, 2016, 05:00:55 PM
Let's simplify by assuming flat betting in reasonable proportion to bank roll size. That is, take progression out of the picture to start.
Quote from: alrelax on September 19, 2016, 07:49:52 AM
I know all this, You just started to play, I have been playing since there was only the big kidney shaped 14 player tables and 3 dealers at each. No midi, no Macau style, etc. Much different player mentality with tons of camaraderie as a general aura. Prior to 10 years ago or so, there was no such thing as free hands, LOL.
Other games have larger tables, but the biggest around here for baccarat seat 8. Haven't been on one for a while as there are certain players that tend to gravitate to certain spaces on the floor.
Any other thoughts?
My conservative way of playing is playing one shoe a day ONLY ( online )!!.... I've been doing it for 6 months now... It's working out GREAT!... I calculate my decisions for the week/month for an overall percent... I haven't been under 55% for the week nor month... I get my units and I'm OUT!!... my worst day I lost 14 units in a day, I don't force it!... but I still came out 25 units for that week because I'd compound my winning for that week!!.... This is my personal success for this game!!...
BTW!!.... I use a 3 step martingale to get my 4 units A day ( 1-2-4 )... once I hit 4 units, then I flat bet afterwards.... I'm at least finishing with 3 units a day, ( cause I might loss my next bet and I stop ) ... some days I get up to 8 - 10 units a day .... my best day was 14 units in a row flat betting!!....I'm currently at the 100$ base bet... compounding my winning to get to the 250$ level.....My Goal is to get to the 1000$ level... with the way I'm playing it's VERY possible... I'm not forcing it!!.... get on and get off quick as possible!!!.... I only play at the beginning of the shoe ONLY!.... Hopefully this helps some people, some have inbox me a few questions so!!...." AGAIN THIS IS MY PERSONAL SUCCESS!! "
Why do you like the start of the shoe? Like what range of hands?
What house do you recommend online for us captured 'Mercicans?
Thanks
Style play reasons .... But I usually start betting around 6 -10 hands... All depends on the situation ......Sometimes I don't bet till 15 - 20 hands played depends... ( Dr. Tom system )... if I lose my ( 1-2-4 ) bet... OK now I'm at negative -7 or - 4 right?... From there I repeat the same thing ... ONLY win 4 units and flat bet till I lose... But If I make it to 0 units ( even ) while I'm flat betting ... I'm back even, now I can continue getting my 4 units for the day, but if I don't, I stop right where I'm at!... Ex: OK I get up to 2 units using martingale right?... OK Cool but all of a sudden I do my ( 1-2-4 ) and I lose now I'm at units -5... OK Now I do the same EXACT thing while I'm -5 ... by getting my 4 units by using martingale!... OK Cool I'm -1 OK from there I flat bet.. If I win that bet I'm even ...So i continue with my day like nothing happened!... but If I lose that bet I completely STOP FOR THE DAY at -2... THIS MIGHT SOUND DUM BUT BELIEVE ME NOT, This have been working GREAT for me , Gave me discipline in playing, and you're not forcing it... JUST RECEIVING WHAT THE SHOE GIVES ME!!... There's always a next day!...LOL That's how I'm withdrawing weekly with ease.... All of this is my own personal way of playing... I USE DR.TOM SYSTEM, But making it work for me... I thought of this method COMPLETELY on my own... WORKS GREAT!!....
I only play on 5dimes.eu ... I don't trust anything else... lol
http://sportsbettingsites.org/news/5dimes-confiscates-over-32k-balance-2500/
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=9&sub=101548442
Most conservative way to play is to walk around with drink in hand and follow the big noisy happy tables with peppered bets.
Hitch a ride on the back of the dragons, baby!
I post a method superior VDM and no one notice - Adulay even wrote it was worthless and i am flat betting using the same method.
The topic is in the baccarat section with 5 or 10 tousands views - forgot what i name the topic.
Its about how you can play 1 in 2 with 1 in 3 probability and get strikes with 5 10 15 20 30 winning bets in a row and only face two loses for each sequenteial attack.
But i did not explain that last part and is up to the reader to come to own conclusion.
The Van Kellen Test say a method is superior winning 100 units with 1000 placed bets and i won 70 units with 1000 placed bets using the Van Kellen Test.
Flat betting.
http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/sputniks-march/
Could see now it has around 2K shows
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi67.tinypic.com%2F11gp0k8.jpg&hash=92cafa322d410a200d6e078cfeccedab2d7d0ee6)
Cheers
Nice work Sputnik,
But my way seems much more fun and easier given that both our ways will return a similar monetary result.
Sputnick
Was always interested
But do not understand it
Thanks everyone. Will review.
What about playing only 2nd Bank? That is, look for progressions where 1st Bank has hit and a 2nd is likely.
You will have shoes where there will be an abundant of those and then there will be an equal or greater amount where you would lose your behind. Problem being, most of us tend not to wager on a pattern/trend/dominating side until it is nearly too late or just falling off of what was dominating.
Quote from: alrelax on October 12, 2016, 12:34:11 PM
http://sportsbettingsites.org/news/5dimes-confiscates-over-32k-balance-2500/
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=9&sub=101548442
It's complicated as here in communist, facist 'Merica the state decides what our money can do and we have limited choices. I do know that on Wall Street, prime brokers/ broker/ counter party relationships are critical and they choose their clients. If their is a complication on a trade typically it's in the best interest of a client to do the right thing.
On both sides it pays to have choices, multiple counter parties, enough capital to have some locked up in a ruling, processing. Many brokers for example process deposits instantaneously and take days for a withdrawal to process and hit.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on October 12, 2016, 04:19:15 PM
Sputnick
Was always interested
But do not understand it
Im also interested on Sputnik March if only I can make it work flat betting.
Quote from: 21 Aces on October 12, 2016, 05:37:57 PM
Thanks everyone. Will review.
What about playing only 2nd Bank? That is, look for progressions where 1st Bank has hit and a 2nd is likely.
Well, this shoe would have killed you big time.
It reads Left and Down. Tie, Player, Tie, Bank, etc. The final hand, not shown, was a Player.
It was a very good VDW shoe.
AD
(https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-9FnZCH9/0/M/i-9FnZCH9-M.jpg)
That is, look for progressions where 1st Bank has hit and a 2nd is likely. It's not going to be a very overweight Player shoe that is basically Player..., 1 Bank, Player..., 1 Bank, Player....
We would look for the opposite. Bank coming down with few Player, 4's, 3's, 2's, and not jumping shoe.
Quote from: Qswaggerstupid18 on October 12, 2016, 06:45:35 AM.... get on and get off quick as possible!!!....
I flat bet short sessions with a narrow win and loss limit.
I play almost daily, and I use the same limits whether I am betting real card Organic machines or hand dealt games.
No online.
Average session lasts about ten minutes.
Last twenty sessions:
6,4,4,1,2,-6,5,-1,4,3,3,3,4,-3,4,-5,3,4,3,4 = 42 units - 7.5 units commission.
Quote from: Eight Iron on October 12, 2016, 11:08:30 PM
I flat bet short sessions with a narrow win and loss limit.
I play almost daily, and I use the same limits whether I am betting real card Organic machines or hand dealt games.
No online.
Average session lasts about ten minutes.
Last twenty sessions:
6,4,4,1,2,-6,5,-1,4,3,3,3,4,-3,4,-5,3,4,3,4 = 42 units - 7.5 units commission.
Although what you are stating is possible, especially the pace of play... It seems most players hold back and play below their true potential and well below it often enough.At $1,000 unit that's over $30,000 in for just over 3 hours of playing time over 20 sessions. 10 minutes? So you play at tables only by yourself or a few others that want to fast play? Nobody I have seen plays like that or is capable of doing it in terms of win rate.
There was another poster who claimed very fast sessions, very tight stop, very tight trailing stop and going net up most every session. Haven't heard from him since.
If I were doing anything close to this, I would play as much as possible through the week and buy this to start:
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.miamiherald.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fcommunity%2Fmiami-dade%2Fmiami-beach%2Fgsfmuw%2Fpicture4316253%2FALTERNATES%2FFREE_640%2Fslider_img_1.jpg&hash=0635828e49f2266d63e9bd0267aaec44b3b6b659)
Then 10 more like it around the world including this:
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffixr.wpmedia.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2010%2F07%2Fpenthouse-3.jpg&hash=05eebb180a79408a8acea82ea7d14bcc73ca58d1)
Of course there's modifications which would take more play:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdRFo71wxcU
ADulay,
Do you still play baccarat using the VDW? Is it holding up pretty consistently?
Thank you,
Ted
Quote from: 21 Aces on October 12, 2016, 11:16:52 PM.... So you play at tables only by yourself or a few others that want to fast play? Nobody I have seen plays like that or is capable of doing it in terms of win rate.
I play at full tables in CT and PA, but most of my play is on the fast Organic machines at Resorts World in Queens NY where I live.
I prefer the machines because they deal two hands per minute, I can sit out as many hands as I want, no tipping, and they are close by.
These are RW sessions.
I only averaged two units per session before commissions in those twenty sessions.
Nothing spectacular about that.
Just tight play with a low loss limit that I have a shot at winning back in my next one or two sessions.
Quote from: greenguy on October 12, 2016, 12:45:58 PM
Most conservative way to play is to walk around with drink in hand and follow the big noisy happy tables with peppered bets.
Hitch a ride on the back of the dragons, baby!
Yes. I have to work on the game after a strong advance ahead because it is this time where you should play as strong as possible, hold ground at least and then position for the next big opportunity that somehow connects.
Conservative play is even more important where you have started to slide on a series of losses and need to get back on the winning track.