Conservative Baccarat Play

21 Aces · September 15, 2016, 05:00:55 PM

Every game of chance should have a very spectrum of what would generally be considered the most conservative play to the most aggressive play. It might make a lot of sense to stay within the confines of the lowest risk conditions of conservative play and focus on building unit size.

Let's simplify by assuming flat betting in reasonable proportion to bank roll size. That is, take progression out of the picture to start.

I think that flat bets on a Bank/ Player dominant shoe that has drawn a lot of players is the most conservative play one can find. The shoe should have already had a clear majority of wins by either Bank or Player including one or more long dragons of many Bank/ Player in a row. For example, one might even see one Player then a series of Bank.

In addition, the attractiveness of the shoe should be supported by many, many players. That is, most every seat is occupied and even a crowd of players in the 2nd tier (standing behind) is evident. In short, they see a very good opportunity as well.

For baccarat, what would you consider to be the most conservative plays to make?

A good exercise is to take $100 and see how much you can build it to/ how long you can play.

alrelax · September 19, 2016, 01:35:09 AM

Problems are, once there is a clear majority, usually with and with the utmost times---that majority will fizzle out.

Second, is the exact same with the "many, many players" you are referring to. Then you get it and it fizzles then they stay and lose their money they just made.

Oh, then you say, just get up and leave. Great in theory, but doesn't work darn near 100% of the times.

21 Aces · September 19, 2016, 02:33:43 AM

The casino dynamic is very real and very difficult at times. Often whole groups of players quit on a shoe rather than free hand a bunch.

alrelax · September 19, 2016, 07:49:52 AM

I know all this, You just started to play, I have been playing since there was only the big kidney shaped 14 player tables and 3 dealers at each. No midi, no Macau style, etc. Much different player mentality with tons of camaraderie as a general aura. Prior to 10 years ago or so, there was no such thing as free hands, LOL.

DoctorSudoku · September 20, 2016, 03:39:10 AM

Conservative play? Well, for starters stay far, far away from negative progressions -- doing that alone would save you a lot of monetary pain.

21 Aces · September 20, 2016, 04:03:37 AM

Quote from: 21 Aces on September 15, 2016, 05:00:55 PM
Let's simplify by assuming flat betting in reasonable proportion to bank roll size. That is, take progression out of the picture to start.

Quote from: alrelax on September 19, 2016, 07:49:52 AM
I know all this, You just started to play, I have been playing since there was only the big kidney shaped 14 player tables and 3 dealers at each. No midi, no Macau style, etc. Much different player mentality with tons of camaraderie as a general aura. Prior to 10 years ago or so, there was no such thing as free hands, LOL.

Other games have larger tables, but the biggest around here for baccarat seat 8. Haven't been on one for a while as there are certain players that tend to gravitate to certain spaces on the floor.

21 Aces · October 12, 2016, 12:05:47 AM

Any other thoughts?

Qswaggerstupid18 · October 12, 2016, 06:28:24 AM

My conservative way of playing is playing one shoe a day ONLY ( online )!!.... I've been doing it for 6 months now... It's working out GREAT!... I calculate my decisions for the week/month for an overall percent... I haven't been under 55% for the week nor month... I get my units and I'm OUT!!... my worst day I lost 14 units in a day, I don't force it!... but I still came out 25 units for that week because I'd compound my winning for that week!!.... This is my personal success for this game!!...

Qswaggerstupid18 · October 12, 2016, 06:45:35 AM

BTW!!.... I use a 3 step martingale to get my 4 units A day ( 1-2-4 )... once I hit 4 units, then I flat bet afterwards.... I'm at least finishing with 3 units a day, ( cause I might loss my next bet and I stop ) ... some days I get up to 8 - 10 units a day .... my best day was 14 units in a row flat betting!!....I'm currently at the 100$ base bet... compounding my winning to get to the 250$ level.....My Goal is to get to the 1000$ level... with the way I'm playing it's VERY possible... I'm not forcing it!!.... get on and get off quick as possible!!!.... I only play at the beginning of the shoe ONLY!.... Hopefully this helps some people, some have inbox me a few questions so!!...." AGAIN THIS IS MY PERSONAL SUCCESS!! "

21 Aces · October 12, 2016, 09:51:37 AM

Why do you like the start of the shoe? Like what range of hands?

What house do you recommend online for us captured 'Mercicans?

Thanks

Qswaggerstupid18 · October 12, 2016, 11:27:53 AM

Style play reasons .... But I usually start betting around 6 -10 hands... All depends on the situation ......Sometimes I don't bet till 15 - 20 hands played depends... ( Dr. Tom system )... if I lose my ( 1-2-4 ) bet... OK now I'm at negative -7 or - 4 right?... From there I repeat the same thing ... ONLY win 4 units and flat bet till I lose... But If I make it to 0 units ( even ) while I'm flat betting ... I'm back even, now I can continue getting my 4 units for the day, but if I don't, I stop right where I'm at!... Ex: OK I get up to 2 units using martingale right?... OK Cool but all of a sudden I do my ( 1-2-4 ) and I lose now I'm at units -5... OK Now I do the same EXACT thing while I'm -5 ... by getting my 4 units by using martingale!... OK Cool I'm -1 OK from there I flat bet.. If I win that bet I'm even ...So i continue with my day like nothing happened!... but If I lose that bet I completely STOP FOR THE DAY at -2... THIS MIGHT SOUND DUM BUT BELIEVE ME NOT, This have been working GREAT for me , Gave me discipline in playing, and you're not forcing it... JUST RECEIVING WHAT THE SHOE GIVES ME!!... There's always a next day!...LOL That's how I'm withdrawing weekly with ease.... All of this is my own personal way of playing... I USE DR.TOM SYSTEM, But making it work for me... I thought of this method COMPLETELY on my own... WORKS GREAT!!....

Qswaggerstupid18 · October 12, 2016, 11:29:37 AM

I only play on 5dimes.eu ... I don't trust anything else... lol

alrelax · October 12, 2016, 12:34:11 PM

http://sportsbettingsites.org/news/5dimes-confiscates-over-32k-balance-2500/

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=9&sub=101548442

greenguy · October 12, 2016, 12:45:58 PM

Most conservative way to play is to walk around with drink in hand and follow the big noisy happy tables with peppered bets.

Hitch a ride on the back of the dragons, baby!

Sputnik · October 12, 2016, 03:53:39 PM

I post a method superior VDM and no one notice - Adulay even wrote it was worthless and i am flat betting using the same method.
The topic is in the baccarat section with 5 or 10 tousands views - forgot what i name the topic.
Its about how you can play 1 in 2 with 1 in 3 probability and get strikes with 5 10 15 20 30 winning bets in a row and only face two loses for each sequenteial attack.
But i did not explain that last part and is up to the reader to come to own conclusion.

The Van Kellen Test say a method is superior winning 100 units with 1000 placed bets and i won 70 units with 1000 placed bets using the Van Kellen Test.
Flat betting.

http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/sputniks-march/
Could see now it has around 2K shows

Cheers