The Van Keelen Test
Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.
Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.
The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!
The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.
The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!
This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.
With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.
Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*The Van Keelen Test
Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.
Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.
The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!
The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.
The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!
This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.
With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.
Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*
I Think i succed with pretty good results.
70 units flat betting with 1000 placed bets.
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi67.tinypic.com%2F11gp0k8.jpg&hash=92cafa322d410a200d6e078cfeccedab2d7d0ee6)
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi64.tinypic.com%2F2aan98x.jpg&hash=fbc67a0fc103d338967051e9f885155e54961f7c)
Is this the March method?
Thanks! :)
Quote from: TheLaw on June 02, 2016, 05:50:07 PM
Is this the March method?
Thanks! :)
Hi Sputnik,
Is this your march method?
Yes its my march but i made a tweak to it :-)
Cheers
Patrik, my bot does not keep track of bets placed.
Your system made 54 units in 1,000 bets. So it failed the Van Keelen test. Does that make it a loser? Of course not.
One of my systems made over 1,500 units in 250,000 spins. Van Keelen test says if you make 1,000 units in over 100,000 spins you pass, does that make my system a winner? Graph attached.
Remember these are only suggested parameters by the researcher Van Keelen.
I think both your and my systems are winners, at least according to the Van Helsing Test (humor).
Here's the point with any method:
If a system makes a continually rising profit for 250,000 spins flat betting, that is what I call the "EDGE". You are consistently making a profit
In other words, this is a BET SELECTION that can give you an "EDGE". I know a lot of you think that there is no BET SELECTION that can do this and you are right if you are referring to Random systems, but remember, VDW is NOT a Random system.
Cheers
Nick
Thank you for great contribution NIck, but where did you get 54 units from, i peak at 70 units after 1000 placed bets and i have not show any one how i play :-)
Cheers
Hi Patrik . .
I estimated you won 54 units at spin 1000.
I was just trying to make a point about the Van Keelen test. Is it at exactly 1,000 spins that you need to win 100 units or above 1,000 spins.
If above 1,000 spins then how far above.
Where do you draw the line.
If you make 900 units after 100,000 spins then you don't pass the test.
But if you continue to play until you make 1,000 units after 200,000 spins then that means you passed the test?
I think a better benchmark would be "are you consistently in profit". You are never going to win every time but can you win more times than you lose.
Cheers
Nick
+1500 over 250,000 spins is significantly different than +50-70 over 1000 spins or bets placed.........or am I missing something here? ???
If both win over the long-run, then credit to both methods......but waiting 166 spins for a +1 unit profit seems a bit impractical.
What am I missing here?
Thanks to both of you for your hard work-much appreciated! :thumbsup:
Quote from: TheLaw on June 04, 2016, 03:42:49 PM
+1500 over 250,000 spins is significantly different than +50-70 over 1000 spins or bets placed.........or am I missing something here? ???
If both win over the long-run, then credit to both methods......but waiting 166 spins for a +1 unit profit seems a bit impractical.
What am I missing here?
Thanks to both of you for your hard work-much appreciated! :thumbsup:
I Place around 1000 placed bets with 1500 trails, so that is 2/3 ...
So the corrected comparison would be :
+1500 units over 250,000 spins (average +1 unit per 166 spins).......average hourly win = .25 units
vs
+54-70 units over 1500 spins (average +1 unit per 27 spins)...........average hourly win = 2 units
..........correct? :thumbsup:
Hi thelaw . . .
I agree waiting for 166 spins to make 1 unit is not practical for live play. But in reality this does not happen.
We need to look at what this does with shorter spin sessions.
Attached is the results for a more typical 200 and 1000 spin sessions.
You see both sessions have their ups and downs and when you combine 250,000 spins the ups ultimately win.
So your money management for shorter spins is key. I suggest you get out on the peaks when they come and they usually will as you know they will in the long run.
My bot does exactly that by automatically taking the little profits on the peaks and keeps on going until it reaches it's target.
Cheers
Nick
My method win +2 units or more with one baccarat shoe - average ...
Cheers
Quote from: Sputnik on June 04, 2016, 04:36:53 PM
My method win +2 units or more with one baccarat shoe - average ...
Cheers
Hi Sputnik,
Would you share your method? I am new at Baccarat since 9 months back.
Baleog "The lost Viking"
Quote from: Baelog on June 05, 2016, 07:18:36 PM
Hi Sputnik,
Would you share your method? I am new at Baccarat since 9 months back.
Baleog "The lost Viking"
Hello Baelog, what do you mean the lost Viking? are you from Sweden?
Cheers
All of your research might be spot on and correct to the proverbial 'T'!!!
However, in live casino baccarat play, one would need hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions of USD to make a small trivial 20 or 40 or 50 or 100 units as compared to his bankroll.
Sure there is hit and miss and sporadic trends/bias's, etc., that pop up all the time. But, no system or chart or test can or will be able to predict when. If one follows your charting/system, etc., they are no better off then sitting down with 10 or 20 or 30 units and praying for the blind-guess best.
You can have every mathematical proven system in the world to determine the overall long run at baccarat for 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 hands or shoes, etc. Will not do the player any good whatsoever. Telling a player there will be XYZ number of Bankers or Players per XYZ hands or shoes or any other possible outcome of any winning 'maybe' means nothing, nadda, zip, zilch, zero at baccarat.
The only thing your system, test or mathematical model can produce in the long run, is how many of something for a given large number of hands on the average. And again, with this type of game, that average you come up with will be the exact same as asking 2 dozen police officers where the sit to catch speeding auto on the highways. They may be in the same exact spot everyday for the next two months and then for the following two months they switch up. So even if your system is correct and spot on and holds true, it cannot each and every XYZ times the total amount of hands/shoes are completed in different casinos around the world.
Quote from: Sputnik on June 10, 2016, 11:10:08 AM
Hello Baelog, what do you mean the lost Viking? are you from Sweden?
Cheers
Hi Sputnik.
Yes I am from Sweden but moved to the US 16 years ago, therefore "The lost Viking".
It also happens to be one of my favorite games on Super Nintendo back in the day.
Baelog
So a 1000 spins or decisions is not a large enough sample size. Just exactly what is the standard deviation of all three tests?
I've run several different kinds of bet selections through thousands of real craps and baccarat decisions and I don't recall any of them coming close to +100 in any 1,000 decision block.
HBS