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Well, I finally beat it

Started by Gunny, January 05, 2017, 02:09:56 PM

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Gunny

I finally figured out a way to beat one of the local casinos thanks to their spread. Now I just need $2M to make it happen. Don't worry, I'll pay you back with 100% profit within two years.

Nathan Detroit5

The line for suckers will form to  the right .LOL>

21 Aces

Pretty sure they check all the angles to eliminate arbitrage when designing games.
Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

Gunny

I'll run two more simulations and then post the results. First one went swimmingly over the course of 100,000,000 hands.

Gunny

Here are the results from the first simulation:

  • This is based on 2,000 hands per week (50 hands per hour * 8 hrs per day * 5 days per week) and 50 weeks per year, basically the equivalent of a full-time job.
  • Table min: $100
  • Table max: $20,000 (note: I called a nearby casino today to ask what their table limits are, and these are what they had in the baccarat pit)
  • Starting savings: $2M
  • Yearly bankroll withdrawn from savings: $2M
  • $250k is initially "staked" per week, but additional withdrawals from the year's bankroll are allowed to finish out any given week. Any week ending under $250k is considered a losing week. The week's loss is deducted from the bankroll, but the next week starts off with a fresh $250k.
  • $20,000 per week is withdrawn to pay the player and cover expenses.
  • At the end of the year, the money left over in the bankroll is added back into savings and $2M is withdrawn to start off the new year.
  • This simulation was run repeatedly over the course of 1,000 years.
  • The results are in the attached spreadsheet.
  • In this run, only one of the years (#44) ends up with a loss. The bankroll and withdrawals end up at $1,835,500 for a total loss of $164,500 on the year.


Gunny

Results from the second simulation attached, and a third one is under way now.

Gizmotron

I'm convinced. I want to make a 1,000 year loan on 2 million that pays 2 million in 1,000 years.


You can do better just following the motley fool.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

Gunny

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 05, 2017, 04:53:55 PM
I'm convinced. I want to make a 1,000 year loan on 2 million that pays 2 million in 1,000 years.


You can do better just following the motley fool.

How about a $2M loan that pays you back your $2M plus $2M over the course of 5 years?

Gunny

The results from run #3 are attached. One pretty bad year in there.

Gunny

I ran the system through the VegasClick $30k Betting Challenge (http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge). Results:

  • Attempts: 20
  • Wins: 8
  • Losses: 12

The 1,000 unit limit is too small to absorb the losses needed to get started, but if you up the starting amount from 5,000 to 50,000 and keep everything else the same? Check it out:

  • Attempts: 20
  • Wins: 20
  • Losses: 0

Results attached in TXT file.

vo rogue

 granny , what you do in private is your business, i only risk 4mil+ sorry bout that.

Mars Rocks

Quote from: Gunny on January 05, 2017, 04:16:17 PM
Here are the results from the first simulation:

  • This is based on 2,000 hands per week (50 hands per hour * 8 hrs per day * 5 days per week) and 50 weeks per year, basically the equivalent of a full-time job.
  • Table min: $100
  • Table max: $20,000 (note: I called a nearby casino today to ask what their table limits are, and these are what they had in the baccarat pit)
  • Starting savings: $2M
  • Yearly bankroll withdrawn from savings: $2M
  • $250k is initially "staked" per week, but additional withdrawals from the year's bankroll are allowed to finish out any given week. Any week ending under $250k is considered a losing week. The week's loss is deducted from the bankroll, but the next week starts off with a fresh $250k.
  • $20,000 per week is withdrawn to pay the player and cover expenses.
  • At the end of the year, the money left over in the bankroll is added back into savings and $2M is withdrawn to start off the new year.
  • This simulation was run repeatedly over the course of 1,000 years.
  • The results are in the attached spreadsheet.
  • In this run, only one of the years (#44) ends up with a loss. The bankroll and withdrawals end up at $1,835,500 for a total loss of $164,500 on the year.

You're obviously very reputable, especially noticeable by the fact that you conceded that year #44 ended up with a loss.  Your system has to be the best one currently available and I will help you find sponsors so that together we can put in the hours and make everyone a big profit.
The main skills I use to beat the casino are ignorance and confidence, it amazingly works just like Mark Twain said it would.

Show me a happy loser and I'll show you a loser!

Mars is the God of War btw, and I'm at war with the casino.

alrelax

I just have one comment and seriously that is it!

$20,000 a week to be withdrawn to cover expenses, etc.

Wow, that is huge for any business unless the key person is a huge fortune 500 CEO. 

I have played heavy and large in the past and nothing close to that amount was required or needed.  Just saying.  But then again, this is way past the wall of the ball field in that proverbial 'left field', great morning coffee stuff thou!!!!

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