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What would you do?

Started by marinetech, February 24, 2016, 10:45:12 PM

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soxfan

Quote from: tdx on February 25, 2016, 02:16:33 PM
If you get the inevitable shoe with a lot of these types of runs, you will easily lose  16 to 20 units......which will be hard to make up.

And if you get 2 shoes in a row like this, you are in big bankroll trouble.

"Draw some chips.......let everybody play on the house"

If getting clipped for 16-20 unit is gonna blow yer mind and cripple yer bankroll then you probably shouldn't be playin the damned game, hey hey.

soxfan

Quote from: marinetech on February 25, 2016, 12:43:50 AM
probably counting his money

Bwaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh, that wouldn't take him very long, at all, hey hey.

roversi13

Boss method illustrated by Super 6 is OK.
2 comments:
-bet in favour after 4 in a row looking for a streak,is IMHO dangerous

-possible modification:if deficit,divide it by 3 and try to recover it in three times,betting for singles that in "Boss method" is NO BET!
Example:if you have a 12 units deficit,divide it by 3 and bet 4 units three different times,(even not in a row if it's not possible),for single.
PPBBBPBB (the 6th hand is a single,so you have to play B on 7th hand,for 1/3 of recovery and so on).
Profits:break 2 and 3 in a row
Ricovery(if it occurs):like explained above

Blue_Angel

You are just examining variations of the Garcia's method described in "very near the infallible method" (about roulette)

Since the original method is flawed, all of its substances will be flawed too.
The flaw is in thinking that after some certain decisions other specific would follow...
Or in other words you assume that a sequence of results should be predetermined, I think this is what they call gamblers' fallacy.

There is a distinct difference between aiming for a particular sequence and aiming for a total of decisions regardless their sequence.
There is a vast number of combinations/sequences, in the short term you can never be sure about in which turn the decisions are going to occur.
However, in the long term we could determine with a high degree of certainty the totals of each and every possible event.

What's the definition of long term?
In an even chance bet  we can expect the initialization of regression toward the mean after 200 to 250 results in extreme situations, but sooner for milder deviations.
We can never be sure about when exactly, but seems to be a limit in maximum deviation, after 200 to 250 STARTS any extreme deviation to decline towards the average expectation which probability theory indicates and will be completed WITHIN 300 to 350 outcomes.

This is valid for EXTREME deviations, the majority are milder deviations with shorter duration, therefore it's highly impractical to seat and wait for an extreme deviation to happen before you start betting.

Bet for the variance to be dominant in the short term and for the probability to dominate in the long term.
Don't try to predict in which turn/sequence the results are going to happen, but bet that their total will be approximately what probability theory indicates.
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

roversi13

I agree with your comments.
My suggestion is taken from the "Very near infallible method" as you said,even if this method plays also the break of 4 in a row.
Break of 2 and 3 in a row is enough for me!
"Very near infallible method",that is a losing method,I agree,is  the most solid system I know.
"Solid" means that within 300/350 outcomes this method wins 98% of the sessions.
The negative EV in Baccarat is lower than roulette,that's why I think that my suggestion,without the complication of 3 Banks,like Very near.....,could be the best way to play.
Risk of ruine still present of course,but I know players that have been using it since ten years and they are not rich,but more than economically satisfied

AsymBacGuy

Quote from: Blue_Angel on February 28, 2016, 06:00:52 PM
Don't try to predict in which turn/sequence the results are going to happen, but bet that their total will be approximately what probability theory indicates.

It seems that certain precise sequences tend to produce a lower variance than totals, of course I'm not speaking about 3s, 4s or other similar "simple" situations.

Imo restraining at most our field of operations help us to get a better control over the outcomes. 

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

gr8player

Quote from: roversi13 on February 28, 2016, 11:40:38 AM
Boss method illustrated by Super 6 is OK.
2 comments:
-bet in favour after 4 in a row looking for a streak,is IMHO dangerous

-possible modification:if deficit,divide it by 3 and try to recover it in three times,betting for singles that in "Boss method" is NO BET!
Example:if you have a 12 units deficit,divide it by 3 and bet 4 units three different times,(even not in a row if it's not possible),for single.
PPBBBPBB (the 6th hand is a single,so you have to play B on 7th hand,for 1/3 of recovery and so on).
Profits:break 2 and 3 in a row
Ricovery(if it occurs):like explained above

Roversi13, I like the way you think.  Good job.

That said, please pardon my indulgence as I offer up a couple of recommendations/adjustments:

1.)  I'd modify the "anti-streak" play thusly:  I'd prefer to bet after the 3- and 4-streaks.  So 1 unit for the 3-streak to break, and if that bet were to lose, I'd bet 2 units for the 4-streak to break.  Either I win 1 unit on either break, or I lose a total of 3 units on the streak of 5.  I would not bet for the streak to continue; rather, simply accept the loss and await the next trigger.

2.)  I'd tread a bit lightly with that "recovery mode".  Don't get me wrong, I happen to like the "chops" (read: singles) part of it.  Why?  Because if you find yourself in need of recovery mode, that means that the shoe has been relatively streaky, and, in my experience, streaky shoes will, inevitably, chop into some singles.  But I'd "measure" those singles as opposed to simply betting for them in hopes of a quick recovery.  Your recovery bets are "raised" (read: higher) bets, so tread lightly with them and "pick your spots" as wisely as possible.  The singles will inevitably come into play, just apply some patience.

That all said, again, Roversi13, I do like the way that you approach the game.  I wish you all the best of it.  Stay well.

ezmark

I am also in gr8 camp in this opinion... frequency and the application of...is a favorite of gr8 I believe... and is something I have studied in-depth...gr8 touched on it in his comment without giving away the golden goose... there's more to it than that obviously...