Hypothetically speaking*
Gun to head, family's life in danger. What betting strategy would you employ right then and there. No second guessing, a lot is on the line.
I will start.
After all the systems I have seen, the debates on OLD FLD, I would break it down to (2) systems.
1) Pit Boss.
2) My own I posted on here a while ago.
Wow, I would have to go with Pit Bosses if everything was on the line. (4)'s are the only thing that can beat you......(2)'s are the only thing that can beat mine but (2)'s occur more frequently...
Love to hear what others would employ......
How does the Pit Boss work? Pardon my ignorance. Thanks
pit boss bets against 2's and 3's and goes with 4's.
PP bet for B
BB bet for P
PPP bet for B
BBB bet for P
PPPP bet for P to streak on
BBBB bet for B to streak on
He bet 1 unit then 2 unit then 4 units. Stop loss was 8-10 units I think....
My system is:
bet the chop:
P bet for B
B bet for P
if 2 in a row come in:
PP bet for P bet for streak to occur
BB bet for B bet for streak to occur
Only thing that kills me are the terrible 2's. Pitt boss killer is the (4) in a row and stop.....
Ah, where is the john-O at when ya really need him, hey hey.
I used to track the pit boss last year because I could see all the Baccarat scoreboards from my favourite seat. The first 2 chop bets worked great a lot of the time...but the last one...betting for a streak after a run of 4 was a disaster more often than not.
Quote from: soxfan on February 24, 2016, 11:10:54 PM
Ah, where is the john-O at when ya really need him, hey hey.
probably counting his money
When are you guys gonna get it through your head? No defined bet selection like this will win. Sure, I like selections depending on how they perform over all. I got my favorites and fool around with different ones that come down the pike at times (not too often). Ya need a starting point so pick your charting method. But when that starting point fails you got to make changes with placement, bet style or both.
I would like to suggest keeping track of W/L registry during the shoe in attempt to keep it as high as possible. No, I don't think you have to win more hands than lose to be winner but it helps. If your % win is getting too low in a shoe get ready to a) make some big bets to recoup or b) get out with a small loss. It's a 50/50 game. Still climbing with my WR after over 8000 placed bets. Now at 52.60%.
The other day I had a 30% win rate in 53 bets placed in a shoe. I had to make some big bets to recoup some but . . . I KNOW MY LOSS LIMIT and if it didn't work out I would have quit loser at a rate I can recover from. When I get a rare bad shoe like that it's probably because I'm losing some focus but I know the game now OWES me some wins! Ended up the session with 49% WR and yes left with a 7 unit loss.
Where's Johno? Where's the Gr8 one when you need him?
QuoteWhere's the Gr8 one when you need him?
You got a problem? If you got a problem stick the God-bandaid on you!
Gr8 one?! I'm crying while laughing, too late cannot stop now!LOL! :))
I will go for chops, or the 4th streak if the shoe was a streaky ones. But if I was to choose I will go for chops.
Hi,
The Pitboss method :-
1) Waiting for a repeat of either P or B, otherwise known as "2 in a row". start with a 1 unit bet that it would jump to the other side. So if 2 P's showed, bet 1 unit that a B would come next. win= +1 loss= -1
2) If a repeat went to 3 in a row, bet 2 units that it would jump to the other side. win= +1 loss= -3
3) If a repeat went to 4 in a row, bet 1 unit that it would repeat to 5. win= -2 loss= -4
4) If it did repeat to 5, leave 1 unit on the repeating side that it would go 6, and continue to let that 1 unit ride until the end of the repeat streak.
5) If the repeats did not go to 5, and jumped after 4, that repeat streak would result in a loss of 4 units. (that's the most you will ever lose in one repeat streak). Then start over and wait for the "2 in a row" and begin with step 1.
THAT'S IT!!
For those of you that are reading this, you probably know about the basic mathematics behind Baccarat. You probably also know that this is the reason this system works! Grind + Time = Victory for US!!!
The most you press is to 2 units. (step 2)
From my playing time, I have encountered maybe 1 out of 10 shoes that resulted in a loss. Although those losses were very minimal.
Hope this helps you guys out, thanks for reading!!!!
Quote from: marinetech on February 24, 2016, 10:45:12 PM
Hypothetically speaking*
Gun to head, family's life in danger. What betting strategy would you employ right then and there. No second guessing, a lot is on the line.
The only answer is honesty.
Be truthful and transparent to yourself, and to all those around you in any given situation, and at any given moment.
After that, you live and die by a whim, and for that you are not accountable.
Wow,
just read back my reply; that was pretty profound!
Maybe I should join a philosophy forum. Anyone know a good one?
If the run goes to 5 and then loses, you also lose 4 units.
P
P -1
P -2
P -1
P +1
B -1
Loss = -4
If you get the inevitable shoe with a lot of these types of runs, you will easily lose 16 to 20 units......which will be hard to make up.
And if you get 2 shoes in a row like this, you are in big bankroll trouble.
"Draw some chips.......let everybody play on the house"
I would ask the players I see all of the time because they have all lost all of their money so they must be due for a win because the more you play the worse you get. You know in the long run, house edge, super secret shuffles. REAL TALK.
Thanks for sharing both. If the Pit Boss is the approach you would take with the highest stakes then it sounds like the approach you would want all of the time. Each will have it's own risk, reward, volatility and so on potential over time.
As a shoe is progressing, if it is screaming a bias that would favor one approach over another, it might be best to opt for that and count on the shoe continuing to play out in that way.
The pit boss style is just another flavor of anti-streaks play. The anti-streaks style is a solid method of play but you can get clipped, real hard in the shirt term, hey hey.
Quote from: tdx on February 25, 2016, 02:16:33 PM
If you get the inevitable shoe with a lot of these types of runs, you will easily lose 16 to 20 units......which will be hard to make up.
And if you get 2 shoes in a row like this, you are in big bankroll trouble.
"Draw some chips.......let everybody play on the house"
If getting clipped for 16-20 unit is gonna blow yer mind and cripple yer bankroll then you probably shouldn't be playin the damned game, hey hey.
Quote from: marinetech on February 25, 2016, 12:43:50 AM
probably counting his money
Bwaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh, that wouldn't take him very long, at all, hey hey.
Boss method illustrated by Super 6 is OK.
2 comments:
-bet in favour after 4 in a row looking for a streak,is IMHO dangerous
-possible modification:if deficit,divide it by 3 and try to recover it in three times,betting for singles that in "Boss method" is NO BET!
Example:if you have a 12 units deficit,divide it by 3 and bet 4 units three different times,(even not in a row if it's not possible),for single.
PPBBBPBB (the 6th hand is a single,so you have to play B on 7th hand,for 1/3 of recovery and so on).
Profits:break 2 and 3 in a row
Ricovery(if it occurs):like explained above
You are just examining variations of the Garcia's method described in "very near the infallible method" (about roulette)
Since the original method is flawed, all of its substances will be flawed too.
The flaw is in thinking that after some certain decisions other specific would follow...
Or in other words you assume that a sequence of results should be predetermined, I think this is what they call gamblers' fallacy.
There is a distinct difference between aiming for a particular sequence and aiming for a total of decisions regardless their sequence.
There is a vast number of combinations/sequences, in the short term you can never be sure about in which turn the decisions are going to occur.
However, in the long term we could determine with a high degree of certainty the totals of each and every possible event.
What's the definition of long term?
In an even chance bet we can expect the initialization of regression toward the mean after 200 to 250 results in extreme situations, but sooner for milder deviations.
We can never be sure about when exactly, but seems to be a limit in maximum deviation, after 200 to 250 STARTS any extreme deviation to decline towards the average expectation which probability theory indicates and will be completed WITHIN 300 to 350 outcomes.
This is valid for EXTREME deviations, the majority are milder deviations with shorter duration, therefore it's highly impractical to seat and wait for an extreme deviation to happen before you start betting.
Bet for the variance to be dominant in the short term and for the probability to dominate in the long term.
Don't try to predict in which turn/sequence the results are going to happen, but bet that their total will be approximately what probability theory indicates.
I agree with your comments.
My suggestion is taken from the "Very near infallible method" as you said,even if this method plays also the break of 4 in a row.
Break of 2 and 3 in a row is enough for me!
"Very near infallible method",that is a losing method,I agree,is the most solid system I know.
"Solid" means that within 300/350 outcomes this method wins 98% of the sessions.
The negative EV in Baccarat is lower than roulette,that's why I think that my suggestion,without the complication of 3 Banks,like Very near.....,could be the best way to play.
Risk of ruine still present of course,but I know players that have been using it since ten years and they are not rich,but more than economically satisfied
Quote from: Blue_Angel on February 28, 2016, 06:00:52 PM
Don't try to predict in which turn/sequence the results are going to happen, but bet that their total will be approximately what probability theory indicates.
It seems that certain precise sequences tend to produce a lower variance than totals, of course I'm not speaking about 3s, 4s or other similar "simple" situations.
Imo restraining at most our field of operations help us to get a better control over the outcomes.
as.
Quote from: roversi13 on February 28, 2016, 11:40:38 AM
Boss method illustrated by Super 6 is OK.
2 comments:
-bet in favour after 4 in a row looking for a streak,is IMHO dangerous
-possible modification:if deficit,divide it by 3 and try to recover it in three times,betting for singles that in "Boss method" is NO BET!
Example:if you have a 12 units deficit,divide it by 3 and bet 4 units three different times,(even not in a row if it's not possible),for single.
PPBBBPBB (the 6th hand is a single,so you have to play B on 7th hand,for 1/3 of recovery and so on).
Profits:break 2 and 3 in a row
Ricovery(if it occurs):like explained above
Roversi13, I like the way you think. Good job.
That said, please pardon my indulgence as I offer up a couple of recommendations/adjustments:
1.) I'd modify the "anti-streak" play thusly: I'd prefer to bet after the 3- and 4-streaks. So 1 unit for the 3-streak to break, and if that bet were to lose, I'd bet 2 units for the 4-streak to break. Either I win 1 unit on either break, or I lose a total of 3 units on the streak of 5. I would not bet for the streak to continue; rather, simply accept the loss and await the next trigger.
2.) I'd tread a bit lightly with that "recovery mode". Don't get me wrong, I happen to like the "chops" (read: singles) part of it. Why? Because if you find yourself in need of recovery mode, that means that the shoe has been relatively streaky, and, in my experience, streaky shoes will, inevitably, chop into some singles. But I'd "measure" those singles as opposed to simply betting for them in hopes of a quick recovery. Your recovery bets are "raised" (read: higher) bets, so tread lightly with them and "pick your spots" as wisely as possible. The singles will inevitably come into play, just apply some patience.
That all said, again, Roversi13, I do like the way that you approach the game. I wish you all the best of it. Stay well.
I am also in gr8 camp in this opinion... frequency and the application of...is a favorite of gr8 I believe... and is something I have studied in-depth...gr8 touched on it in his comment without giving away the golden goose... there's more to it than that obviously...