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[Garfield]

In my book which has been temporarily shelved, there is a section which has withstood the test of time. I term it 1) hot phase 2) neutral phase and 3) shar chi or deadly phase.
In the hot phase, whatever you bet, you win. The patterns appear so clear to you. Your thoughts are clear and your decisions, spot on. When the casino has 8 points you end up with 9. When you have 1 point, the casino ends up with zero or baccarat.
In the neutral phase, you win one and then lose one. The wins and losses even out.
In the shar chi (a term derived from the study of Feng Shui meaning killing arrows) or deadly phase, whatever you bet you lose. It is the exact opposite of the hot phase. You have 8 points and the casino ends up with 9. The casino has 1 point and you end up with zero or baccarat. Even with tears in your eyes, the casino continues to take your money.
MM strategies depends on which phase of the game. If in a Shar chi phase and you go on to negative progression, you may lose 5,6,7,8 times and decimate your bankroll. In a hot phase, maintain bigger bets or go into positive progressions. In a neutral phase, bet small or sit it out. it's a waste of time.
The phases alternate within 12-20 hands. Sometimes it drags on to 30-40 hands. If you are hurt during the shar chi phase, it will drag on longer and unbelievably. If you hit it right during the hot phase, it can also go on longer.
But nothing goes on forever. Just remember that. As in life and in driving on a highway, there are smooth periods where everything goes right and there are times where there is the immaculate congestion.

Good reply! Very inspiring! Well done and thank you!

 

[Jimske]

The trick is to have bankroll available when the hot phase arrives. Oftentimes when the hot phase comes, one is left with a small bankroll and is then facing an uphill battle to chase losses.

Said in another way, "you can't lose forever."  First you got to recognize that we will win half our bets or real close to it itlr AND pay the juice.  When I have a losing segment, session, shoe, whatever, I say to myself.  Oh good, the game owes me some wins!  Hopefully during that down turn I didn't lose all my ammo!  So when do you know when to begin to fire up a bit?  Ya don't really, you just guess.  Probably your guess is based on a couple of factors.  Perhaps you see the structure of the bet placement you are keying off change and you won a few hands.  This could be a signal to climb back in and regain plus make a profit.  Or maybe you monitor your variance and wait for virtual losses.  Regardless.  You got to have some kind of recoup PLAN on what to try and when to jump in case it fails.  It's called a "grind" for a reason.

Bacc is a MM and betting game.  Bet selection is just to give you structure.  Something to key off so you can recognize a change.  Everyone should know what outcomes they need in the future in order to profit and when those outcomes are not happening then that should be a sign to back off.

A favorite of mine from Stetson Bailey is a variant of the D'Alembert.  He calls it +1,-1 Flat.  I don't use it often AND when I do I'm careful how far to take it.  Increase your lost bet by one unit (a lesser increase if you want) after a loss but when you win stay at the same level for one bet (or more) until you lose then go up again.  This, if done with proper MM can help reduce escalation and recoup some, if not all, the lost units.  Personally I recoup to an acceptable level only and then go back to my normal betting.  I don't find it imperative to always get back every unit I lost in one shot or handful of shots.

J

[Jimske]

Funny.  Only 13 voters and 7 actually choose bet selection.  But no comment as to why they think so.  Perhaps they don't mean mechanical bet selection but just mean got to be a good guesser?  Interesting. 

[21 Aces]

Bet selection for the win.  Same thing in financial markets.  If you can't take winning positions it doesn't matter what your money management is - just faster and slower paths to zero.  Look at sports.  Defense can win championships, but if your offense is so terrible it doesn't matter how good your defense is - unless they are gods that actually play like a killer offense. 

It is theoretically possible for a player to lose every single play they make in a session.

[soxfan]

After seeing result of this survey I now understand why so many cats lose, regular, hey hey.

[Lung Yeh]

21 Aces, a trader in the financial markets who takes a position also depends on their MM strategies. A trader must win more on wining streaks and lose less on losing streaks or cut its losses. And the statistics from these financial markets show that the percentage of winners are no more than in Baccarat.

Of course bet selection is important. The question is which is more important? Not that bet selection is not necessary. Bet selection has many approaches. If you gather from this forum there are trenders, anti trenders and the random walk theorist (same like the financial markets). And same like the successful financial traders, the ultimate key to success, the difference, if you must, is MM encompassing discipline, humility and patience.

In my humble opinion..... Thank you for reading.

[21 Aces]

After seeing result of this survey I now understand why so many cats lose, regular, hey hey.

And what about an approach with flat wagering?

[soxfan]

I said it again and I'll say it before; betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!!!!

And what about an approach with flat wagering?

[XXVV]

In Roulette there is no sitting out spins. If you want your seat at the table you must place at least minimum bets. When the hot phase comes, and it always comes eventually, I shift up to attacking bets. In my method, I only have to win the first bet in order to take the big ride upward

It is my experience that you only get one to three hot phases per four-hour gambling session in Roulette. I also play the steady grind upward. It beats the red/black bets just a little so what the heck.

This, along with another recent Gizmotron quote which I will reference soon, is most helpful for professional level play.

I have an alternative view and approach, but hugely respect the honesty and effectiveness of this attitude.

[Jimske]

This, along with another recent Gizmotron quote which I will reference soon, is most helpful for professional level play.

I have an alternative view and approach, but hugely respect the honesty and effectiveness of this attitude.

Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

[XXVV]

Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

I don't understand the 'million' reference but obviously it is Bet Selection.

MM alone is insufficient, but again will be essential only after correct BS.

The veiled point I am making is that I currently believe it is possible to make ONE successful bet and that is sufficient for a session. There is a set of conditions and the player must wait for the correct opportunity if the session conforms to required conditions. Annoying point - all based on recent short cycle past spins. If the session is suitable there are three levels of success. If the player waits for the best condition, it may take 15-20 mins and the bet is flat staked at high value unit, and consists of three connected consecutive parts. If all succeed there is sufficient profit to quit. Should take 30 mins. Will be writing on this subject SUPERBET in the Blog. This is just a reaction to what I see as reducing the risk exposure to loss in a casino and the sooner the player successfully leaves, the better.

[Garfield]

After whichever side reach 10 vote first, the poll will be closed. Then I will assume the result as an AVERAGE opinions. Not for stat fact whatsoever.

[Lung Yeh]

Jimske, your comment on my comment that one cannot lose forever. Equally important is that one cannot win forever. Imperative to know when to stop. I have a guide that whenever I lose back 30% of winnings, I should stop. I say 'should' because often the chimp in me over rules me! Sigh!

[Gizmotron]

Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

I'm a both, no option for me in polling. It takes diligent observation of what is trending, sleepers, singles, series, or mix. If I don't react to what is happening I tend to drop like a ski diver. I guess it's like betting the opposite of what's working. Having said that, MM is an essential aspect of it too. Like I said, the stand off bets, bets placed as spot holders for no bet made spins, they don't really count. Otherwise, I have two speeds, grind or attack. My method is mainly win three net wins at grind upward speed and end the session. If I enter an attacking opportunity I hammer it and then end the session. I try for seven winning sessions for a trip to the casinos for a day. If an attacking opportunity occurs then the results are added to the net goal of 21 net wins. So MM has a huge roll to play also.

BTW, I've switched from 24-26 numbers played to 18 numbers played. It's less volatile and makes the end of a successful attacking mode less damaging. It's real easy to lose a lot of progress when you lose a high stakes double dozen bet. The thing to do is to exit the session without greed causing you to give it all back. If you allow adrenaline to drive up the need for dopamine in your head, you can become desensitized to losing big right after a big win. It's like remembering to fly the plane no matter what happens. Remember the hijacker D. B. Cooper? He bailed out in order to avoid getting caught. You must have a session exit strategy, that's MM too. Lung Yeh's lose back rule is a great reason to hit the silk. That's a dopamine killer if I ever saw one. Never take your eyes off the instruments for very long. You might end up flying directly to the scene of the crash.

[Garfield]

@Gizmo : But if you have to choose between those two, which one will you consider more important?

Just pick Red or Black, Banker or Player, no grey shaded area.

Please.

Thank you.