All
I find that gambling boils down to this: I win a few bets and then spend hours digging my way out of the hole. This is what would happen with PB if you lost. You lose seven and have to win the next seven to get even. Lose again during the recession and you will have to spend longer at the table to get even.
Not picking on PB. The G.U.T. is the same. Every system I ever played is the same.
I guess I'm used to continued success. With a guitar, if you learn it you learn it. It doesn't go away.
In my business, when I made money it was mine. Very slim chance of losing it. Very tiny!
With gambling, you win six units and go into the hole and spend two days trying to get back to where you are +6. I have come to realize this is the nature of the beast.
Anyone care to comment?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on November 17, 2012, 05:15:14 PM
All
I find that gambling boils down to this: I win a few bets and then spend hours digging my way out of the hole. This is what would happen with PB if you lost. You lose seven and have to win the next seven to get even. Lose again during the recession and you will have to spend longer at the table to get even.
Not picking on PB. The G.U.T. is the same. Every system I ever played is the same.
I guess I'm used to continued success. With a guitar, if you learn it you learn it. It doesn't go away.
In my business, when I made money it was mine. Very slim chance of losing it. Very tiny!
With gambling, you win six units and go into the hole and spend two days trying to get back to where you are +6. I have come to realize this is the nature of the beast.
Anyone care to comment?
Sam
Sam regarding PB, I like to think of it as two steps forward and one step backwards. You see what happened to Subby at the start of the SPERAMUS QUEST. He won 7 then lost one. Now at last post he has won 12 straight. And his not even using a recovery bet.
The beauty of H.A.R is you will at some point ride a winning streak that puts you in a nice place. This is how it will work. Over the next 6 months Subby will see it all. If he gets a streak like I've had playing less than 6 games a day.
He will move beyond negative figures PERMANENTLY. And you will all start to see PBs value.
My comment would be that I think it's important to take a break from gambling now and again and recharge the batteries or it all becomes a bit of a drudgery.
Especially for us guys!! Let's face it. Most of us are hardcore and obsessed with the game.
Sometimes you just have to take the money out and spend it on something and appreciate what you have done rather than churn it backwards and forwards for days.
Gambling is a strange affair and I got a lot more excitement and fun out of it when I was a losing reckless gambler rather than the studious accountant type gambler that I am now.
In fact I gamble far less nowadays because it's too much like bloody hard work.
They say a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. You have reached the twilight zone Sam. :nod:
Sam, I came to the very same conclusion years ago. I decided to stop opening my sessions by digging a hole. I also moved on to a two level flat betting method, no progressions. I look at the current conditions. If that works as a bet selection method then I bet big while it's working. Otherwise I flat bet small. This keeps me from digging big holes.
I feel I've reached the point where I can avoid losing overall. The problem is I cannot keep hold of my gains.
I don't know how to change that although I hope to find out.
Trebor
Quote from: Trebor on November 17, 2012, 07:53:39 PM
I feel I've reached the point where I can avoid losing overall. The problem is I cannot keep hold of my gains.
I don't know how to change that although I hope to find out.
Trebor
T
Would you elaborate on that statement? What do you mean..can't keep hold of my gains?
Sam
And isn't there an element of contradiction there? (Avoid losing...can't keep gains...)
I know.
I would need to look closely at my play to explain. All I know is that I have good winning periods and some losses. My bankroll seems to overall stay pretty level.
Trebor
Quote from: Trebor on November 18, 2012, 10:30:31 AM
I know.
I would need to look closely at my play to explain. All I know is that I have good winning periods and some losses. My bankroll seems to overall stay pretty level.
Trebor
Trebor needs to apply money management to his play to pull out in front. He has had a winning streak of 19 games. So he can get decent runs. His sample is much too small to form any conclusions. I had periods where I lost 3 games out of 10.
It happens. Its the longterm and longterm ONLY you think about. When that 20 plus streak arrives. You see why this all works.
Perhaps your right JL.
I posted somewhere else that you seem to be saying more and more that PB won't win without smart MM which wasn't a prerequisite originally.
I've nothing against any sort of staking plan if it actually works.
I've just checked. My small sample so far shows a loss of -2. With smart MM it's +28.
That could easily be wiped out by a bad run.
Trebor
"I've just checked. My small sample so far shows a loss of -2. With smart MM it's +28."
Trebor
Not trying to be a jerk, but will you use that same MM in the future? Many people look back and say, "Oh, if....." but you can't do that moving forward. Here's the way it sounds:
"OK, I would have just used a Martingale here. Oh, here I would be taking a break because I'm playing hit and run. Wow! I would have won 1,000 units."
Sam
Sam, This is indeed the nature of progressions. We win a lot of quick units and then we have a bad run that drives us into the hole. Now comes the decision. Do we stay at small stakes to climb out over time or do we keep betting larger and larger bets to try to recover quickly at the risk of going even deeper into the hole more quickly.
That's what a fibonacci does. It gets you out of the hole with only 2 wins back to back or 2 out of 3 wins. But, if you don't get those wins quickly, you can find yourself betting all that money you earned in your business.
I've developed, who hasn't, progressions that recover with only 3 wins or 3 out of 4 wins or any number you want. The problem is when you're betting large units hoping to recover quickly, you can just as easily run into another bad losing streak and next thing you know, you're practically buried alive.
Sometimes, I look again at a simple progression of like 1 then 2 or 1-2-3(4) or whatever. This is just a small step away from a flat bet. Actually, if you remember some of my bloviating I presented the idea that every bet is just a camoflauged flat bet.
My favorite bet is still the flat bet parlay. Bet 1 unit and any time you win, you let your bet and all wins ride until you have enough money on the table to cover all previous losses and then you pull it back. You may have to let it ride up to 5, 6 or more times. When this happens, you can set a cap on the parlays of say 3 or 4 and recover in smaller chunks.
At least betting this way, we can quit at any point because all we lose on a loss is 1 more unit.
The extreme of Giz's method is the "Target betting method". Flat bet 1 unit until a win and then bet all previous losses for a 2nd win in a row. I know this isn't what Giz is presenting, so I don't want to misrepresent his betting methodology, it's just what I thought of when I read his explanation.
If you find a remedy, we're all ears.
GLC
George
Here is the scenario I encounter. My progression climbs to the point I can't take it anymore and I quit. When I start again, I start at .50 and the wins come like crazy. Then I wonder, should I have resumed my progression where I left off? I would have won. What if I got a second RFH?
There seems to be no answer.
Sam
Quote from: GLC on November 18, 2012, 04:47:23 PM
My favorite bet is still the flat bet parlay. Bet 1 unit and any time you win, you let your bet and all wins ride until you have enough money on the table to cover all previous losses and then you pull it back. You may have to let it ride up to 5, 6 or more times. When this happens, you can set a cap on the parlays of say 3 or 4 and recover in smaller chunks.
At least betting this way, we can quit at any point because all we lose on a loss is 1 more unit.
Sounds good to me George. I don't think I could stomach making a 100+ unit bet or whatever needing it to win.
Sam, I hope I don't sound like I'm whinging because I'm not.
What I'm trying to do is test PB for my own benefit because in the past it didn't work for me. Laying a ghost if you like.
I'm only playing for pennies so never any hurt done.
I'm just asking, should this not win with the basic 3 stage marty according to JL's own statistics. Any winning ratio better than 7/1 should and he claims 10/1 at least. If it does then I would expect the MM plan to to improve the situation.
My reply that you responded to referred only to PB because JL assumed that was my problem.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on November 18, 2012, 04:56:37 PM
George
Here is the scenario I encounter. My progression climbs to the point I can't take it anymore and I quit. When I start again, I start at .50 and the wins come like crazy. Then I wonder, should I have resumed my progression where I left off? I would have won. What if I got a second RFH?
There seems to be no answer.
Sam
I play around on BV play money with say 1 euro bets, the progression goes up, the losses go up, and I give up.
Next time I wade back in with 10 euro bets and make a killing.
Would I ever have the nerve to do that for real? Sometimes I wish so. I don't think I've got what it takes to be a gambler.
Trebor
Trebor
I have heard it said that a winning method can be ruined by a progression. While Jl plays a progression, it is a "short leash" progression. If you strung three or four of these together, it could get hairy.
Say you lost and the loss is 7. Jump to 7 14 28. If you win, you're even. If you lose, what then? Start at 28? 28 56 112 Jl might say losing three in a row is virtually impossible. I will always believe that things run in batches, so if I lost I would not be surprised to lose again.
If I could get 10-1 win ratio, I'd just take it and play. Using the MST, this would be very easy to play alongside another system. No frantic placing of bets. Just one click.
Sam
This is just my opinion but I don't think you should go against your basic nature in any areas of your life. The conflict just leads to dissapointment. I don't want to sound like a party pooper or anything because I believe we can still gamble and win even if we are conservative by nature.
A lot of what I am saying was in several books I read. I will see if I can dig them out and elaborate (bloviate) a bit more.
Sam,
That's it. My experience is that losses come on top of each other. Maybe not so often with PB but maybe often enough. If it does average say 10/1 why not keep it simple.
Bally,
For me I'd ideally want the gambling part to be "will I win the next bet", whilst being much more confident about the overall position.
To that extent I suppose you can be a conservative gambler.
Trebor
Quote from: TwoCatSam on November 18, 2012, 05:20:24 PM
If I could get 10-1 win ratio, I'd just take it and play. Using the MST, this would be very easy to play alongside another system. No frantic placing of bets. Just one click.
Sam
yup :thumbsup:
Quote from: Trebor on November 18, 2012, 11:24:38 PM
Bally,
For me I'd ideally want the gambling part to be "will I win the next bet", whilst being much more confident about the overall position.
To that extent I suppose you can be a conservative gambler.
Trebor
This is where having a bankroll of 20 times a loss comes in.
That mental safety net - knowing you have lost but it's only a small 5% of your total bankroll, is comforting and less of a mental anguish scenario to deal with. That bankroll safety net is the difference between playing relaxed and enjoying your gaming and "panicking" as you've lost some money and you're tense and annoyed that you have lost, and you're down money, etc....
Playing with a smile will prevent greed and over playing to the point where your win:loss ratio is barely covering a loss....less(games) is more(bankroll units) with a few good streaks in between :thumbsup:
Quote from: subby on November 19, 2012, 10:06:57 AM
This is where having a bankroll of 20 times a loss comes in. That mental safety net - knowing you have lost but it's only a small 5% of your total bankroll, is comforting and less of a mental anguish scenario to deal with. That bankroll safety net is the difference between playing relaxed and enjoying your gaming and "panicking" as you've lost some money and you're tense and annoyed that you have lost, and you're down money, etc....
Playing with a smile will prevent greed and over playing to the point where your win:loss ratio is barely covering a loss....less(games) is more(bankroll units) with a few good streaks in between :thumbsup:
I think maybe I'm being read wrong.
We all know this Subby. I'm lucky enough to be financially secure and will remain so as long as I don't catch gambling as as an illness (which I won't). I've never used money that I couldn't cheerfully wave goodbye to.
However, I would get a real kick out of making money out of Casinos when all around think it's impossible.
Plus we would all like a little more. Wouldn't we. :thumbsup:
Trebor
indeed :thumbsup:
Guys
I wasn't speaking of bankroll.
Let's say your bankroll is X. You do real well for a while and your bankroll is 3X. Then you hit the skids and it goes to 1/2X. Now you have to fight your way back to X and hope to someday, in some universe, get back to 3X and move forward.
To me this is mentally tiring. I want to get to 3X and the move to 5X and on and on.
It just doesn't work that way. For me, anyway.
Sam
Get away from the "money" value you are playing and focus instead of a grinder method with "units" in your head as a value not money.
Take care of winning long steady amounts of small units and the unit values will look after your bankroll.
When you are 10 times a total loss in your BR you really shouldn't lose again...or go into negative money I mean...lower bankroll than when you started.
Fewer games a day on the wheel = longer unit adding win streaks and at the end of the month it's the amount of units you win that you convert to money and cash out.
Even grinding out 20 units+ a month...not £20 or £20,000 but 20 "UNITS" leaves you in profit. Play less and have fewer losing streaks. I'm currently on a 18+ chip run on EVEN ODD which is over twice a total loss amount of 7 chips. Streaks like that add units gradually to your BR and month-end...you'll be up more than when you started
snubby
Thanks for that advice.
Sam
Its impossible to dig a hole if you know what's
going on in your gane at all times. If you always know
where your game stands in relation to the random
outcomes being presented, you always know when
to bet, not bet, and run away.
If you don't have this info available when you play,
you're playing blind and this always leads to bad
things.
I'll be the first to admit--I'm not so hot at gambling. I do find myself in the hole and most folks are there with me now and then.
Sam