Open for discussion - please let me have your views on the subject : As a Player you have the freedom to join and/ or quit the game at your will. In other words you choose when to join a game - perhaps you have seen an opportunity arising and you want to seize that opportunity. Perhaps also you have made a suitable profit, whether on one spin or a hundred or more spins. Or you have made a loss but you wish to cut that loss and stop loss immediately as you read the current phase of the game as hostile. As the Player you have additional degrees of freedom.
You have degrees of freedom not available to the Casino Bank.
What, if any, is the percentage positive edge thus gained by the Player, over the House, being able to choose point of entry/ exit?
Or is this concept already factored into existing negative expectation percentage?
Or is this an imaginary construct?
Please advise.
XXVV
An "edge" like house edge in roulette just increases the probability to win or in simple way creates a slight "tilt" in the favor of casino. Random entry or exit just can not ensure that you will enter or exit at correct times always. It will still have same probability as if you keep playing, so in my opinion, this way a player has no positive edge.
Mmmm thanks Albalaha.
Your answer may well be anticipated, and may be the view of many. You may be right. However I would like to add some spice to this question.
I think you should give the Player some credit for good judgment and shrewd experience gained from reading the writings of Albalaha, John Patrick et al.; ie some intelligence based on observation within casino play. So many players ( anecdotal evidence is +66%) at some stage of their 'casino experience' are in profit. What if, (however remote the prospect) they have seen the light, and take their profit, and it averages say +30% of their capital/ RB per session. In other words they exercise 'discretion' and 'judgment' in money management. Or if more prudent ( far fetched I know in casino experience with mass markets), they are 'content' with +10% gain.
When I test methods I apply 'braindead' discretion, ie none. This is a conservative way of seeing things, and assumes and adopts a 'bulldozer' approach, which is actually not the real experience of Players.
What if, given some training and experience, the Player chooses to ALWAYS exit when a 10% profit has been made, or say 50% of 'winners' decide to take a +10% profit on their session capital. Their next casino experience is a fresh event in their experience universe, or personal screen of outcomes. Intervening or observed events where they do not actually play become a montage that is irrelevant. However, step by step, they apply shrewd and cool smart judgment. Next time playing live they adopt the same discipline, and with growing confidence based on a medium to longer term view as opposed to short term poor judgment.
The newly 'educated' Player becomes a 'Smart Player', and consistently, when offered the opportunity seizes the profit. The Player may also lose from time to time ( say 30-50%) but refuses to 'chase loss' and quits when 30% of the session RB has gone. In theory this may be/ equate to say 3% of the Player gross turnover/ churn in the session but the Player is intelligent enough to recognize that this is an adverse session and gracefully exits at this point. The Player has monitored outgoings and reads the -2.75% level being the negative expectation level on a single zero wheel. We understand that in roulette, many naive players covering large areas of the table with bets offer the casino far better odds. However in this case we have a Smart Player. Such spreads are not the way to win in the long term.
Perhaps you could comment given the 'intelligence' of this Player. All Players can be trained to do this, even if they are playing with a method without proven edge. Surely this more disciplined approach, even if applied to a 'neutral' method ( ie neither win nor loss beyond -2.75%) is a measurable edge in their favour, that is the ability to join or leave a session at will.
Best
XXVV
Dear XXVV,
Whatever we play (be it marty or flat bet, EC or straight up) can not ensure that we will get at +1 before -1(or even worse is more likely) in most cycles/sessions. Actually, the whole fight is to get the +1 and nothing ensures this. How will you exit without that and how will you ensure getting at +1 in more sessions than -1 or worse?
@Albalaha
Thanks for your quick reply. You have not noted what I detailed.
On the basis that the Player plays a simple 'neutral' method, experimental evidence indicates that in over 50% of the time, perhaps often much more, the Player will be in profit ( by luck/ skill/ serendipity/blunder) and as the Player is now a smart and shrewd Player, the profit will be banked, and the Player will happily leave the Casino.
On the next visit the same outcome, or variations therefrom will unfold and profit made will be held, not given back.
Yes occasionally, perhaps 30-50% of the time there will be loss, but loss will be stopped at precisely -2.75% of churn. Loss of this type will be from the outset of the game, ie the Player was never in profit.
There will be a net gain to the Player ongoing over time ( in theory) given consistent rules are applied.
To add a little more spice, the Player, encouraged by early success now contrives to leverage the profit on an up and pull strategy, and immediately goes into cessation upon the first hint of resistance or erosion of more than 30% of the gains made as profit.
My innocent question is, even without a method with proven edge, applying smart money management and self discipline, can the Player become a more consistent winner. The winning can be measured. This measurement can determine the edge provided by the Player's freedom to stop and start at will. Has anyone ever calculated or acknowledged this power of freedom for the Player?
Best
XXVV
On the basis that the Player plays a simple 'neutral' method, experimental evidence indicates that in over 50% of the time, perhaps often much more, the Player will be in profit ( by luck/ skill/ serendipity/blunder) and as the Player is now a smart and shrewd Player, the profit will be banked, and the Player will happily leave the Casino.
Buddy,
I do not know the source of this information of yours. You play 1 spin or 1000, u always have more opportunities to lose, in long run. If you compare chance to win +1 or chance to lose -1 whichever comes first, you will find later much more time. If you cater to some kind of progression, you guarantee this.
There is only one truth in roulette....casinos don't pay true odds.
The rest is subjective.
Quote from: Albalaha on January 09, 2014, 07:45:17 AM
Buddy,
I do not know the source of this information of yours. You play 1 spin or 1000, u always have more opportunities to lose, in long run. If you compare chance to win +1 or chance to lose -1 whichever comes first, you will find later much more time. If you cater to some kind of progression, you guarantee this.
Then how come you have a claim to have beaten roulette if the above statement is true.
Quote from: Pockets on January 09, 2014, 04:45:11 PM
Then how come you have a claim to have beaten roulette if the above statement is true.
Because I only work upon blunting the edge of extreme variance and way to sustain and win if I get lesser wins than the mathematical expectancy, even in long run. You can see that all my challenges move around that harshest reality but none preferred to even talk seriously over that. They believe that they are lucky enough to get the number of wins or streaks required to get a net profit.
Unfortunately, no ready to use money management solves this so most of people play by relying their luck would never set encounters with "sessions from hell".
Subjectively speaking...we choose when to bet or when not to bet...
We choose where to place or bets
We choose how much to bet
The casino takes all bets so long as the wheel is in use...they cannot tell us where to place our bets and they can only limit the minimum or maximum amount bet within posted limits that they set.
To me...it would seem we can certainly derive an "edge" or "advantage" from those parameters even with a 00 wheel. Bet selection, bankroll, patience and discipline rule the day. This has been my position for years and from time to time in conversations such as these I have posted it. I am sticking with my position.
There are limits to everything...whether that be repeats or the infamous "random". If you choose well, have the bankroll and guts to ride out a bad turn (along with stop-losses to minimize such drawdowns) and have the patience and discipline to not feel compelled to bet every single spin if your method of play doesn't dictate that a bet be placed... you can play this from an advantageous position. You may lose battles from time to time but you'll win the war (that does not mean owning the casino).
To me...it would seem we can certainly derive an "edge" or "advantage" from those parameters even with a 00 wheel
Unfortunately, testings and simulations disprove this belief of yours. You may win or you may lose in any session but there is no edge.
Quote from: Albalaha on January 09, 2014, 07:00:51 PM
To me...it would seem we can certainly derive an "edge" or "advantage" from those parameters even with a 00 wheel
Unfortunately, testings and simulations disprove this belief of yours. You may win or you may lose in any session but there is no edge.
I guess you can just mark me down as being really lucky for a long long time then...
Thank you for the various opinions and positions stated. Fascinating.
R
XXVV
Quote from: RouletteKEY on January 09, 2014, 07:11:29 PM
I guess you can just mark me down as being really lucky for a long long time then...
I am not saying it is not winnable but in finding an "edge" you may end up your age and find yourself at the same place where you started doing that. Better focus on an MM that can let u survive in the worst phases and extract best in a little favorable ones.
Quote from: Albalaha on January 09, 2014, 07:40:24 PM
Better focus on an MM that can let u survive in the worst phases and extract best in a little favorable ones.
Indeed that is shrewd advice in one sentence.
XXVV
This is how i see things and getting the edge over negative expectation.
Most experience players would use a low win target, lets say 20% ...
Lets say the buy in is 200 and loss limit 50% or 100.
Then we get what i call the 20/100 flaw.
You have to win 5 times in a row to reach 100 and then you are just even.
Lets say you get busted after that, then you have to start all over again.
Then comes recovery progression to recoup and assume you get busted again, then you have gamblers ruin.
This means that low win targets and loss limits does not give you an edge, by it self.
But if we aim to win more when we are ahead, try to capitalize when we are in strike mood, then we might get an edge over the game.
Lets say i play one week or 5 days.
+20 +20 +20 +20 +20 up +100 if i lose once i give it all back and might use a recovery progression and maybe end up with gamblers ruin.
But if my winnings look like this.
+40 +30 +50 +20 +30 up +170 if i lose a week playing i am still up +70 overall.
This is why i like Brett Morton's Money Management and John Patrick's Money Management.
They capitalize above fixating win targets with built in accumulations strategy's, pushing for more.
In the end that give you some kind of edge over the 20/100 flaw.
@Sputnik
Excellent MM thanks
R XXVV
Quote from: RouletteKEY on January 09, 2014, 06:57:12 PM
Subjectively speaking...we choose when to bet or when not to bet...
We choose where to place or bets
We choose how much to bet
The casino takes all bets so long as the wheel is in use...they cannot tell us where to place our bets and they can only limit the minimum or maximum amount bet within posted limits that they set.
To me...it would seem we can certainly derive an "edge" or "advantage" from those parameters even with a 00 wheel. Bet selection, bankroll, patience and discipline rule the day. This has been my position for years and from time to time in conversations such as these I have posted it. I am sticking with my position.
There are limits to everything...whether that be repeats or the infamous "random". If you choose well, have the bankroll and guts to ride out a bad turn (along with stop-losses to minimize such drawdowns) and have the patience and discipline to not feel compelled to bet every single spin if your method of play doesn't dictate that a bet be placed... you can play this from an advantageous position. You may lose battles from time to time but you'll win the war (that does not mean owning the casino).
I agree and think this is an excellent summary statement.
The point I am trying to make or discuss is that our 'freedom; to start, stop , pause, is of immence value while the casino operator has to chug along riding sometimes bad losses.
In practice this is more than compensated by the folly of the player over-reacting often to loss, or a run of losses, losing the plot and offering the casino a 20% edge, sometimes 70% edge chasing the losses by spreading more and more over the table.
I watch with interest the from mezzanines often ( XXVV sunglasses brand) and observe so many males especially standing around a table suggesting a short duration stay, and expecting a loss. females usually sit, and in my observations usually play a much smarter game .
Thanks XXVV
Quote from: Sputnik on January 10, 2014, 11:40:09 AM
This is how i see things and getting the edge over negative expectation.
Most experience players would use a low win target, lets say 20% ...
Lets say the buy in is 200 and loss limit 50% or 100.
Then we get what i call the 20/100 flaw.
You have to win 5 times in a row to reach 100 and then you are just even.
Lets say you get busted after that, then you have to start all over again.
Then comes recovery progression to recoup and assume you get busted again, then you have gamblers ruin.
This means that low win targets and loss limits does not give you an edge, by it self.
But if we aim to win more when we are ahead, try to capitalize when we are in strike mood, then we might get an edge over the game.
Lets say i play one week or 5 days.
+20 +20 +20 +20 +20 up +100 if i lose once i give it all back and might use a recovery progression and maybe end up with gamblers ruin.
But if my winnings look like this.
+40 +30 +50 +20 +30 up +170 if i lose a week playing i am still up +70 overall.
This is why i like Brett Morton's Money Management and John Patrick's Money Management.
They capitalize above fixating win targets with built in accumulations strategy's, pushing for more.
In the end that give you some kind of edge over the 20/100 flaw.
This is very important and why the professional must always incorporate up and pull; enhance the winnings, mitigate the losses; try to eliminate loss where possible ( fix the leaks).
Remember the quote from the Macao classic -' the winners play like cowards and the losers like dragons' - this has to be reversed where possible.
Sometimes I have sessions where I play a complex game and it is tiring after an hour or more of battling and encountering the need for several drawdowns, and you fight to dog out of hole. By the time you are in profit exhaustion can set in and a scuttle to the cashier to take a small profit is a triumph. However of course it may be that the wheel has literally turned and opportunities would have clustered.
I guess in that situation you have to pace yourself as a distance athlete.
Sometimes though you are handed a quick profit. So soon you want to play on but there can be cruel swings and evaporation sets in. That can be an awful experience. I endeavour to adopt the mantra there to take quick profit, and then perhaps pause for a short break over coffee say and consider a return unless your daily goal is already achieved,
Then there are perfect sessions where the balance is better and bets can be pressed.
Thanks for your great comments on MM.
Best
XXVV