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Topic: baccarat trends  (Read 222 times)

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Offline 8OR9

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baccarat trends
« on: October 18, 2017, 07:22:29 AM »
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  • Here is something to look at during your next bac shoe, if you have a slow dealer and have time to write down some extra info on your scorecard.

    This is not a "system" ....but just an observation which may or may not have any value.

    Basically you track three different situations :

    1. If you win or lose a bet by a natural ( you bet Player and Player loses to a natural Banker 8 or 9...or vice versa...you bet Player and win with a Player natural 8 or 9 )

    2. You win or lose on a draw ( you bet Player and Player has a ten and a 7 on the first two cards for a total of 7 and Banker has 2 tens for a total of zero and Banker draws an 8 and you lose......or you bet on Player and Banker has a 10 and a 2 on first 2 cards for a total of 2 and Player has 2 and a 3 for a total of 5. Player draws a 6 for a total of 1 and Banker draws an 8 for a total of zero and you win.

    3. The third situation is to see who was ahead after the first four cards are dealt.....for example, Player has a 2 and a 4 on the first two cards for a total of 6 and Banker has a 2 and an ace on the first two cards for a total of 3.  Player is ahead 4 to 3 .

    Or on the first four cards Player has a two aces for a total of 2 and Banker has a 2 and a 3 for a total of 5 so Banker is ahead 5 to 2.

    Now make 6 columns on your score card......the first set of 3 columns are for bets that you lose. The columns can be titled....Natural, Draw and First 4. So if you lose a bet to a natural, you put a mark in red the Natural column. If lose a bet to a draw, you put a red mark in the Draw column. If you lose a bet because you were behind on the first 4 cards, you put a red mark in red the First 4 column.

    Now do the same for the next set of 3 columns and now instead make a black mark if you win the bet.

    If you win a bet with a natural, make a mark in black in the Natural column. If you win a bet on a draw, make a black mark in the Draw column. If you win a bet and are ahead after the first 4 cards are dealt, make a black mark in the First 4  column.

    I can almost guarantee you that if you are on one of those 6 or 7 losing bets in a row situations, or are caught in a "shoe from hell" where you can't seem to win a bet, the first set of three columns in red will have many red marks in them.

    Like wise, if you are on a good shoe and winning, the second set of 3 columns will have a lot of black marks in them.

    The reason you track the first 4 cards in the First 4 column is because whoever is ahead on the first 4 cards will win the hand 80 % or 95 % of the time, depending on the shoe.....for the simple reason the other side has to "catch up" to the side that is ahead.

    As I said, this is not a betting system.......but if you start to see a lot of red marks, you will probably be in for a very bad shoe.

    And this may be a good starting point if someone has the time to look into this further and develop some kind of betting strategy.



    Offline alrelax

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    Re: baccarat trends
    « Reply #1 on: October 20, 2017, 11:29:05 PM »
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  • Not a system, kind of a guideline or let's better yet say---'A Guardrail' while playing.  I do attempt to keep the following in my forethought:

    6's and 7's, where as the 7 is over the 6 will continue for at least one more win;

    Naturals, 9's over 8's or 8's/9's tying.  Depending on how many the Players or Bankers are in the rears, when a Natural beats a Natural already drawn, that is a hint the side will play catch up, somewhat;

    Fortune 7's tending to cut--highest majority of the times;

    Tie after several repeats, tend to cut.  (repeats meaning a couple of naturals or the winning side winning with the same numbers, etc.);
    Stronger more times in middle within the 1/3rd to 2/3rds section, say the 20th to the 60th hands;

    When the repeating streaks start to beat the other sides 7's and 3 card 8's, etc.  Especially with 3rd card draws or by the losing side being reduced by their 3rd card draw.  The opposite side is in for a fresh run or a continue run. 
    My Blog within Betselection Board: http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a min of 25,500 shoes of baccarat since I started playing live in USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: baccarat trends
    « Reply #2 on: October 22, 2017, 08:44:21 AM »
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  • Interesting points.

    Imo the problem should be set in a simplier way:

    1- About 1/3 of the total hands is decided by naturals.

    2- Player side standing/natural points will 100% deny the Banker advantage.

    3- Whenever Player draws, odds dictates that Banker is advantaged.

    About #1 we can't do anything other than hoping that the side which got more naturals won't be balanced by an equal number of naturals on the other side.
    Sometimes naturals tend to come out alternatively, so we should act accordingly.

    If we see that Player side will draw more often not (more than half of the expected time), we better choose the Banker side to bet into. Player drawing streaks will be slightly more likely than single Player drawing situations.

    Anytime we are wagering Banker when Player draws, we're getting a sure advantage itlr.

    In a nutshell, anytime we are guessing that Player side won't get a 6,7,8 or 9 initial point, we will get an advantage betting the Banker side.
    And the opposite is true: when wagering Player side, we are hoping to get a 6,7,8 or 9 point.

    Every other intermediate situation will confuse the whole picture.

    as.



     



     

       
     

     


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