BetSelection.cc

General => General Discussion => Topic started by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 10:32:57 AM

Title: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 10:32:57 AM

I did not think this could be done - but i use a wheel signature with a bias and random algorithm and i strike above 50% at all times.
Sure there will be varaince and fluctation, but this is the best i ever seen with a 50/50 bet situation.

This method play numbers with physical parameters.

WWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWLLWLWWWWWWLW

Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: greenguy on January 06, 2015, 10:45:41 AM
Hi sputnik.

Above 50% is not enough. Even at 55% you are still not out of trouble. If you can get beyond 55% and push toward 60% then things start to turn in your favour.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 10:49:14 AM

I will continue testing and if it hold up - then i will ask Bayes to check the method - so there is no curve fitting.
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Albalaha on January 06, 2015, 10:53:17 AM
Quote from: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 10:32:57 AM
I did not think this could be done - but i use a wheel signature with a bias and random algorithm and i strike above 50% at all times.
Sure there will be varaince and fluctation, but this is the best i ever seen with a 50/50 bet situation.

This method play numbers with physical parameters.

WWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWLLWLWWWWWWLW
How much did u simulate, so far?

QuoteAbove 50% is not enough. Even at 55% you are still not out of trouble. If you can get beyond 55% and push toward 60% then things start to turn in your favour.

Cheers.

How can you say this? Even if I am at 51%, I will expect to earn 1 unit every 100 trials.
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 11:13:23 AM

I will only do 300 trails and now i reach 4.83 Z-zcore, i have never done that before.
And hitting 8 9 10 11 12 13 in a row is also pretty rare strike ratio.

If it holds up - then i will ask Bayes to code it ...
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: greenguy on January 06, 2015, 11:14:30 AM
Quote from: Albalaha on January 06, 2015, 10:53:17 AM
How can you say this? Even if I am at 51%, I will expect to earn 1 unit every 100 trials.

Variance will eat you up at 50%
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: greenguy on January 06, 2015, 11:17:15 AM
Quote from: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 11:13:23 AM
I will only do 300 trails and now i reach 4.83 Z-zcore,

That's a good z-score to be sure, although at 300 trials it is meaningless. But you already know that.

Good luck with your testing!
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 12:39:44 PM

Sure, but i have never seen anything like this before.
104 placed bets and 84 wins is 6.83 Z-score.

Maybe i am curve fitting - i have to ask Bayes - its to good to be true.
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Rashid on January 06, 2015, 06:03:12 PM
care to explain the bet selection?
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 06:38:02 PM
Quote from: Rashid on January 06, 2015, 06:03:12 PM
care to explain the bet selection?

No - but i send it to does i trust to let them test and see for them self.

Cheers
Title: Re: Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
Post by: Sputnik on January 06, 2015, 10:01:57 PM

I was curve fitting and miss match results ...

Cheers