Yes, CT70 you are correct in many ways and many ways a seasoned bac player IMO comes to doom himself.


Something I wrote a while back, most probably never read it or seen it?:


"The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info 'signs' trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Weather that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word 'lazy' as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact, a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that', as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen"."

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 PM
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

I have re-read this again, twice.  And more and more, I find your words very familiar and very realistic. 

Truly you have been around the block, as that proverbial saying goes. 

Thanks for posting!  Alrelax/Glen

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 PM
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

That is utter codswallop, it's like a sales pitch. Is Keith in need of more BR, one wonders.

I average approx 100 shoes per week. I know darn well statistics count for nothing as a shoe unfolds.  So please bear me the BS.

Yet you contradict yourself in the next paragraph. Baccarat is all about statistics, for any given session it is not. I've also studied this game for well over a decade and then some. Negative progressions do not need to be outrageous, I use them all the time and rarely bet more than 10 units. You are talking to somebody who has done it, 34 consecutive winning sessions, turning $1k into over $40k.

I'm well acquainted with the 87%, something that was done to death on GG over a decade ago, age has nothing to do with the ability to study  game.

I did construct a response having watched over a Doz of BTC youtube videos in the last 24 hours, which I did not post, but shall edit accordingly and post shortly. 

Quote from: alrelax on April 16, 2019, 03:45:00 PM
  By the proper definition of the word 'lazy' as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact, a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that', as the saying goes.

That's where maturity and wisdom as alluded to by CT70 can be so important. As a former keen roulette student, I can relate to the above quote and cite roughly 1,000 posts on this forum alone where I talked with a self perceived understanding of how to beat the game of roulette. That false belief is a killer. Ironically, I hardly post on the game of baccarat and prefer to read others instead realizing that there is a bit of truth and common sense in mostly what everyone has to say if you are prepared to look for it. To put it bluntly, we have two ears and only one mouth and I find/found that you don't learn as much and are not as receptive to other ideas if as Alrelax said above that you are a bit egotistical, hard-headed or over-confident. Wise words indeed.

I have just watched about a dozen BTC videos on YouTube, I feel compelled to comment, nice for all of them to have a meet up in Macau, I'll give them that.

I strongly suggest that membership fees are keeping Keith afloat, not his Baccarat prowess.  The videos are a utter load of mumbo-jumbo, smoke and mirrors.  Shoe trends! If a side is ahead by 3, then bet that side until 3u ahead. Maybe he hasn't seen many shoes start with a streak then chop for 6 hands, then the other side streaks, nothing but fairy tales.

Expectations of 18 singles, 9 doubles, 4 or 5 triples in a shoe, top 3 lines consist of 87% of all hands, all count for NOTHING, other than to make the person making those comments appear smart. Published and discussed at length on GG and other defunct Baccarat forums.

None of this info is of any help at the tables, not in the slightest.  I am well aware all of these stats, they mean diddly squat as shoe unfolds, they predict nothing, they do not help other than to look back in amazement at the end of a shoe, Then it is 'couldva, wouldva, shouldav'.

So what the top 3 lines consist of 87% of all hands over time, basically some old fella is trying to appear clever, basic maths 101 stuff. maybe he knows about the bet selection OLD, so what happens when a shoe produces a 4 by 4 streak, or worst, nope that part wasn't addressed.

System 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL, side count, shoe bias, discussed at length, doesn't help you one bit when the shoe has finished, all taken straight out of Ellis books of fairy tales.  It is nothing but mumbo-jumbo that is being promoted. While shoe analysis may help if you have had your behind handed to you on plate, But they offer nothing in term of the next shoe you are playing, It is so easy to play shoes after the event, pure nonsense, aimed at the clueless. One wonders if Keith even plays, there was one instance in a video, he said the Banker goes down to 4, he couldn?t even count properly, as it went down to 3, my Lord.

What is really alarming is one particular YouTube video regarding clumping, Keith doesn't even know what the most significant cards are in a Baccarat shoe.  It has been mathematically proven in several places the 4 and 6 are the most significant cards, not that this info will help you in the slightest, so to try and add credence to the spouted nonsense he attempts to introduce BlackJack theories into the game of Baccarat, drear me..

Big cards left, good for the Bank and vice-versa, again, having your head filled with such info will not help while you are at the table. However if you are not aware of this stuff, it makes for a fantastic sales pitch. Let's face it, Baccarat tables the world over are not only occupied by players who have zero methodology, but are also desperate, an endless stream of mugs, willing to fork out anything in the hope they might turn around their predicament. Good grief the YouTube videos must sound like music to their ears. The YouTube comments provide insight to what is the true reality. It is not surprising why one of BTC prominent members is branching out in some vain attempt to entice gullible players to financing Keith?s exploits.   

I really do hope that behind closed doors of that forum is more substantial than the reflection of what is portrayed on that channel, otherwise members (a few I am acquainted with) are being taken for a ride.

My impression is that BTC is simply rehashing is what was discussed to death on GamblersGlen circa 2005, they are promoting myths for a fee. Unfortunately the GG site has a virus, if your Anti-virus is robust, you can ignore the warning and scan your PC afterwards, or even better if you run a virtual VMware machine, you can read and digest it all for free, saving yourself the $99 entry fee..

If you are a newbie to gambling forums, then this is heaven, people will believe what they want  to believe, what they NEED to believe, promising so much, delivering so little, like a well oiled machine, snake oil that it. Information that you may have never heard before, you're going to be rich, become a ProPlayer, sorry to burst your bubble, it is far from the truth, rather just a bunch of players paying for the privilege to discuss the same load of nonsense ECD was renowned for. Same song different organ grinder, a superior salesperson who learnt the ropes from one of the biggest deluded system seller crooks Ellis Clifton Davies.

Excuse the rant, but the YouTube channel is a load of waffle, the seminars are a load of waffle, aimed at those whom know no better, of which there are many. Win, win situation, unfortunately and SAD.
 
Go and check out their YT channel, then ask yourself, how gullible am I.

I appreciate wholeheartedly the time you took to type and post that Lugi. 

I normally do not hold grudges.  I have owned businesses from NYC brothels, to massages parlors, two Midtown Manhattan restaurants, to heavy wrecker service with name branded gas stations on the interstate highway ramps with tractor trailer garages and hazardous materials spill clean up business. I butted heads with a lot tougher and a lot meaner with expensive outcomes, LOL.   I am on to my most favorite business, a restaurant and bar with a state gaming license in fact.  I have had my share of ups and downs and clowns, should I say--in business.  I have gambled in high limit rooms, every single one in Atlantic City, Connecticut, Florida and lots of the Midwest, and at least a solid 70% in Vegas and Southern California, over the many years I have played.

Although I have squared off and had my share of pissing matches, I never would have started this thread or brought it up if Keith did not attempt to have me criminally charged and arrested for threatening him, when all I did in reality was text him 3 or 4 times on his published cell phone number, in the attempt to remove 5 copy and pasted posts I put on his public forum at the invite of one of his members. 

Anyway, I detest the man for his falseness, his outright egotistic personality and his outright lies and deceit.  He preaches what he stands for and a man will always act and sell himself for what he stands for, period. 

Thanks again for the time you took to write what you think. 

Quote from: Lugi on April 16, 2019, 07:01:17 PM
That is utter codswallop, it's like a sales pitch. Is Keith in need of more BR, one wonders.

I average approx 100 shoes per week. I know darn well statistics count for nothing as a shoe unfolds.  So please bear me the BS.

Yet you contradict yourself in the next paragraph. Baccarat is all about statistics, for any given session it is not. I've also studied this game for well over a decade and then some. Negative progressions do not need to be outrageous, I use them all the time and rarely bet more than 10 units. You are talking to somebody who has done it, 34 consecutive winning sessions, turning $1k into over $40k.

I'm well acquainted with the 87%, something that was done to death on GG over a decade ago, age has nothing to do with the ability to study  game.

I did construct a response having watched over a Doz of BTC youtube videos in the last 24 hours, which I did not post, but shall edit accordingly and post shortly.

Lugi, I don't know why you are ranting to me about BTC. You're barking up the wrong tree. I pretty much agree with everything you said about Keith and his forum. For the last 2 years though, there were a group of successful players including myself, teaching a lot of great things to baccarat enthusiasts. Unfortunately, Keith himself couldn't learn what we were teaching so he chose to take another route with his forum. He took the high negative progressions route, where he advocates starting with 1000 unit bank rolls, to win only ONE unit.  That's when all the successful players walked away, since we frown on high negative progressions.

I don't need to validate what I say to you, but as a courtesy and just so you know, I will. I don't use or endorse any of the systems you mentioned, 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL and 87%
I have my own way of playing. However, with your response to my post(s), it's evident that you don't believe a word I say or are even interested. In that respect, you are just like Keith, because he couldn't do what we do, therefore he thought it was impossible. Moreover, you are like 99% of the players I meet in the casino, in that have been playing 10s of years, you know it all and that there's is nothing that you could possibly learn from anyone else.
After 30 years of owning a forum, Keith is still playing $5 units. That being said, if you were the successful player that you say you are you would be playing full time, and would not be content with 5K a week over a hundred shoes. I did the math, you make $50 a shoe.
You don't need to respond to this or any of my future posts. My posts are for everyone else who enjoys the experience I have to offer.   

Thanks Alex, wasn't sure what kind of reception it would get.

Their YouTube channel tells anybody possessing just a smidgen sense, all they need to know.  It is not a case of BTC withholding the pertinent information and saving it for the board, nope, rather what have publicly published is just invented hog-wash, it is irrelevant fairy tales 

OTBL? (An Ellis creation) All it wins against is a series of 2's, call it for what it is, "follow repeating two's, because TBL in other words DBL 'Decision Before Last', is taking you to the cleaners.    Yet they have the audacity to charge to attend a seminar to be told this stuff.  Gone are the days when you could read all this on the web, some good forums have bitten the dust. 

It was really laughable watching them dissect shoes, "oh OTBL lost 5 in a row there, but TBL was ok, but lost 3 in a row here, System 40, did this and System 40A / NOR did that, conclusion, nothing, other than placing emphasis on prior hands, when IT DOESN'T EXIST.   Seriously, what is the point, the next shoe is going to be completely different and that shoe being discussed you will never play again in your life-time.

Keith the programmer and former protege of Ellis, learnt a lot from one of the biggest internet snake oil salesmen, Clifton Davies 80 years old who tried to re-write BJ basic strategy and tell scholar they were wrong. Scammed hundreds if not thousands of players for many decades. Tells you all you need to know. Keith following in Ellis's footsteps, making a living promoting and inventing mumbo-jumbo about Baccarat.

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 09:28:43 PM
Lugi, I don't know why you are ranting to me about BTC. You're barking up the wrong tree. I pretty much agree with everything you said about Keith and his forum. For the last 2 years though, there were a group of successful players including myself, teaching a lot of great things to baccarat enthusiasts. Unfortunately, Keith himself couldn't learn what we were teaching so he chose to take another route with his forum. He took the high negative progressions route, where he advocates starting with 1000 unit bank rolls, to win only ONE unit.  That's when all the successful players walked away, since we frown on high negative progressions.

I don't need to validate what I say to you, but as a courtesy and just so you know, I will. I don't use or endorse any of the systems you mentioned, 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL and 87%
I have my own way of playing. However, with your response to my post(s), it's evident that you don't believe a word I say or are even interested. In that respect, you are just like Keith, because he couldn't do what we do, therefore he thought it was impossible. Moreover, you are like 99% of the players I meet in the casino, in that have been playing 10s of years, you know it all and that there's is nothing that you could possibly learn from anyone else.
After 30 years of owning a forum, Keith is still playing $5 units. That being said, if you were the successful player that you say you are you would be playing full time, and would not be content with 5K a week over a hundred shoes. I did the math, you make $50 a shoe.
You don't need to respond to this or any of my future posts. My posts are for everyone else who enjoys the experience I have to offer.

You were defending BTC a few posts back, what is one to presume, I took you for a shill?  I watched a YouTube video today and one of your shoes was mentioned, CT70. I have come to the conclusion, Keith of more of the sales guy than a player.

I assure you, I am far from 99% of the players you've shared a table with.  Sometimes I don't even make $50 per shoe, but it was good of you to take two separate posts from two separate threads and make assumptions, occasionally it ends negative, I am an extremely cautious player, even with a negative progression.

Glad we agree about those systems you mention, all scams invented by the old bugger. The 87.5% understanding does have value though, depends how you apply that knowledge.

Welcome to the board, trust you won't mind if I comment IF I should happen to disagree with any future posts you decide to make, it is what debate is all about.  I'm not knocking you personally, rather the silliness and sham of paying money to chat Baccarat over at BTC.