Ok....the mystical "could tell you but then I would have to kill you" subject.
EC series.
It seems that if you study this...you feel you have done some kind of SAS training, and can't tell anyone.
They have to go into the labyrinth themselves and find out the hard way...like the Masons or Rosicrucians
I don't know what the reason for this rite of passage is...
OK.............
R or B is statistically most likely to happen. This is a series of 1. (RBRB)
Over many spins, you will see 25%
RR or BB 12%.....series of 2
RRR or BBB 6.25% series of 3
RRRR or BBBB 3.1% series of 4
You can see where this is going
RRRRRR (rare, 0.8%) BBBBB?
So another black and and a consecutive 6 series is rare, so bet red, and it continues BBBBB....and the chance of that is 0.05% (series of 10)
So what do we do with this knowledge?
RRBBRRB bet red to "stop the trend"...or another way of putting it, bet red because a single series is much more probable than another 2 series....and it goes BBBBBB.
Throws in another even less probable series of 7
What I would like someone to explain is how we use these series statistics to place bets.
THIS IS WHAT I DON'T GET
Well...I get it, but it just doesn't seem to do what's expected (variance of course)
Turner
Well I am in the same boat as you on this one Turner.
As Sam likes to say from time to time...''I have not been up that mountain'' [smiley]aes/dont_know.png[/smiley]
Me too! Would be interesting to here from the EC Meisters!
Skakus....cheers...this is what i wanted.
I'd rather see a worthless losing idea than just hear someone tell me they have the answer with no explaination
Hence, this subject.
So you bet with the wheel basically?
I like the idea of four Red or Blacks more than the other start betting
the opposite with a small progression: 1,2,4 (stop) repeat 2,4,8 (stop)...
Example: RBRRBBRBRRRBRR--Blacks=5, Reds=9---Bet at least one more black will show in three spins...
Turner you can build a march that capture some events using the observation of the law of series.
Here is one concrete example.
Lets say you have a series of 4 red or 4 black in a row.
R
R
R
R
Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.
RR
RR
RR
RR
Now you can see that you got one clustering patterns with two outcomes 4 times in a row.
But then have 4 possibilities or equilibrium RR RB BB BR ...
That is one way to see it.
Or you could say that you got one series of 8 reds.
All thinkable combinations exist.
Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.
RRB
RRB
RRB
RRB
Now you get 4 clustering patterns of the same out of 8 possibility/combinations ,,, pretty rare ,,, but it happens ....
So it continues with no end using equilibrium ...
So lets say we would create a march to bet against series of 4 and betting against does clustering patterns.
Then it would look like this.
You see red bet opposite for three times.
When you lose three times in a row, then wait for a new outcome and then bet opposite again for three times.
Repeat the formula as many times you want depending on what kind of staking plan you use.
Optional is to bet once only for each sequential attack.
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
So this is how it looks like to catch singles, series of two and series of three using one simple march ...
2
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
2
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
1 L
According to his last posts on rouletteforum.cc last year, it seems that reddwarf had found the holy grail.
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9090.0 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9090.0)
@ Turner,
One of the ways of using the "law" of series is Marigny de Grilleau's method. Look for Ego or Lucky Strike's threads in the other forum.
There's a guy here called ||| || | ||| || or something similar who uses it too, I think he looks for imbalances in the series and then bets accordingly. e.g. in X bets there should be a some number of series of 2, so, taking into account standard deviation, on the appearance of a single like RRR B, you would bet black and then red which would result in a series of two.
There are many ways you can use the "law" of series, because it applies not only to R/B but longer sequences. e.g., there are twice as many isolated singles as series of singles, twice as many isolated series of 2 as consecutive series of 2, and each of these are related in some way to other series. If you take into account these relationships as well as the standard deviations, you can lower the variance, and that's all you need to win.
Or you could just play the trump card and say that every bet has a 50:50 chance of winning. :bored:
I appreciate your replies people.
don't know how many play craps, but its similar (but more complex) than dice probability, which I understand.
The Marigny de grilleau post by Ego, I posted on many months ago. It was simply an image of an exploding head cartoon.
I shall revisit this post now I've actually understood what series are.
i never get anything unless I see it for myself....like this....
100 spins, OE
OK...its obvious singles are more than 2 series, but after that, it's a bit "I didn't expect that"
with such variance, how can you be sure? HOW COULD YOU PLAY THESE NUMBERS AS O/E?
Series of 1 = 17
Series of 2 = 12
Series of 3 = 2
Series of 4 = 0
Series of 5 = 2
Series of 6 = 2
Series of 8 = 0
Series of 9 = 0
Series of 10 = 0
Series of 11 = 1
23 2
31 2..
36 1
0
21 2
11 2..
16 2
18 2..
25 2
7 2..
22 1
29 7
13 7
21 7
25 7
25 7
5 7
11 7.....
24 1
25 3
23 3
5 3...
6 2
2 2...
21 1
36 1
23 6
17 6
7 6
5 6
21 6
5 6....
30 1
25 1
8 1
9 2
11 2....
32 2
36 2...
0
31 6
3 6
33 6
11 6
25 6
13 6.....
4 2
20 2..
11 2
25 2....
14 1
7 1
2 5
34 5
10 5
4 5
4 5....
29 2
25 2..
3
0
28 1
31 1
22 3
12 3
4 3....
1 1
6 5
12 5
10 5
2 5
4 5...
17 6
3 6
27 6
5 6
15 6
21 6.....
10 2
14 2...
25 1
14 1
35 1
34 2
6 2...
31 1
28 11
22 11
26 11
2 11
28 11
24 11
18 11
26 11
20 11
24 11
11
Lets pick a playing model first based upon math and probability.
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
Series of eight has the value of 6
And so it continues ...
Now singles and series of three has a 50/50 situation with the value of 1 each.
Assume now you get a window of event with imbalance where singles only show with just one or two series of three.
Lets say you get a window of 14 singles and 2 series of three.
That is a STD or Ecart of 3.0 and a very strong imbalance.
Now the law independence dictate that you have a window of 3.0 STD in this universe.
Is like a vacuum pressure.
Or you isolate a strong imbalance occurring with 20 to 25 trail window.
Now i can tell you what will happen in the future with 99.9 % probability certainty.
For the next 25, 50, 100, 150, 200 trails you will get larger series to appear.
Series of four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and so on.
All you have to do is to develop a march to catch does events or series.
I would recommend tendency play where you only play when a larger series has a show and not before that.
This is just one among many different methods using the law of series.
It exist many different methods.
I would recommend this for team play and long term play.
Quote from: Turner on September 01, 2013, 10:09:03 AM
The Marigny de grilleau post by Ego, I posted on many months ago. It was simply an image of an exploding head cartoon.
Turner, it's really not that complicated. The basic idea is that there are as many singles as there are series. A "series" is simply a run of R or B longer than 1. So RRR , RRRRRRR, RR, RRRR, RRRRRRRRRR are all series, but R "on it's own" with at least 1 B on either side, is a single.You've already verified that there are as many singles (approximately) as series in your data:Quote
Series of 1 = 17
Series of 2 = 12
Series of 3 = 2
Series of 4 = 0
Series of 5 = 2
Series of 6 = 2
Series of 8 = 0
Series of 9 = 0
Series of 10 = 0
Series of 11 = 1
There are roughly as many singles (series of 1) as there are series longer than 1: 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 19. So the relationship between series and singles is the the same as that for Reds vs Blacks, ie: 50:50. Therefore any bet selection applied to R/B can be applied to Singles/Series, because the probabilities are the same.The Marigny de Grilleau method is simply waiting for losses, as you might do when playing Red vs Black, but using Singles vs Series instead. It's nothing more than that. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Bayes on September 01, 2013, 10:43:11 AM
So the relationship between series and singles is the the same as that for Reds vs Blacks, ie: 50:50. Therefore any bet selection applied to R/B can be applied to Singles/Series, because the probabilities are the same.
Spot on. The whole thing can be debunked by accepting that a single may become a series or may remain a single. The probabilities of both events is 50/50 in every situation and therefore every situation is predictable only at the mean. Regression does not help, since it can happen over hundreds or thousands of spins. You may well still go bust before getting ahead by even one unit, despite things overall regressing in your favour. Singles and series is only valuable only for academic reasons, ie personal research. In the main it's another blind alley that simply leads back to FTL or OTL.
This editor is better than some.
And if you had a problem......all you have to do is ask.
If its about the size/font/auto changes, they are set for upgrade soon.
All you have to do, is, be careful when back spacing, and if the sizing/font problem arises, then just hit the little "Toggle View"
Icon button [attachimg=1] to see what your about to post, and then back space it out.
Quote from: Sputnik on September 01, 2013, 10:23:54 AM
Lets pick a playing model first based upon math and probability.
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
Series of eight has the value of 6
And so it continues ...
Now singles and series of three has a 50/50 situation with the value of 1 each.
Assume now you get a window of event with imbalance where singles only show with just one or two series of three.
Lets say you get a window of 14 singles and 2 series of three.
That is a STD or Ecart of 3.0 and a very strong imbalance.
Ego.....Im researching and have now hit a crossroads.
In 2011....you said something very similar, but different.
I have to resolve the differences to further my study
you said
Series of two contra higher series.The valuse for each event is as follows.singles has the value of 0 Series of two has the value of 1 Series of three has the value of 0 Series of four has the value of 1Series of five has the value of 2Series of six has the value of 3Series of seven has the value of 4And so it continues ...Here we skip singles and series of three as we aim to only capture longer series and the overrepresented events has to be series of two and the imbalance has to hit a bench mark of 3.0 STD before we can wait for the underrepresented events to show and try to gain at least +1 unit - using a specific march.
Quote from: Turner on September 01, 2013, 08:48:26 PM
Ego.....Im researching and have now hit a crossroads.
In 2011....you said something very similar, but different.
I have to resolve the differences to further my study
you said
Series of two contra higher series.
The valuse for each event is as follows.
singles has the value of 0
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
Series of seven has the value of 4
And so it continues ...
Here we skip singles and series of three as we aim to only capture longer series and the overrepresented events has to be series of two and the imbalance has to hit a bench mark of 3.0 STD before we can wait for the underrepresented events to show and try to gain at least +1 unit - using a specific march.
Yes as i mention there is different tactics ...
One way is to track them all during play ...
A hot tip is to only bet after +1 as indication of tendency toward the right path.
As you can see it has nothing to do with develop a march based upon FTL or any other ...
Tendency play for regression towards the mean or correction is a different ball game, but i don't expect every one to know that.
PM me if you want more information about the subject and i will help you.
I still have simulation softwares for some methods of this work by Marigny, i send them to you if you want them.
It never faild during my testing.
Turner i come up with other solutions for trending based upon math and probability.It need some clever staking plan and testing, if you feel up to the task we can do it together.
I notice the random flow is like a ocean with waves.
So we can pick any benchmark of window of events.
Measuring any STD or Ecart window of events with imbalance.
It can be 1.5 STD window and then bet towards regression towards the mean.
It can be a 2.5 STD window and then bet towards regression toward the mean.
It can be a 3.5 STD
It can be a 4,5
I just want to show you that i develop a FTL Ecart play or Ecart trending based upon math and probability ...
Each attack sequense is three bets and this is how it looks like ...
You can play after around 1.5 or after around 2.5 ...
If you play after around at least 1.5 then that is the common LW-Registry that you see.
If you play after around at least 2.5 then its after three loses with the LW-Registry ...
31/8 Singles
LW
LLW
W
W
LW
W
LW
LLL at least 2.5 STD
LLW
W
W
W
31/8 Series
LW
W
W
W
LW
W
LLL at least 2,5 std
LW
30/8 Singles
LW
LLW
LW
LLL at least 2,5 std
W
W
W
LW
W
LW
30/8 Series
W
LW
W
LW
W
W
W
LW
29/8 Singles
W
W
W
W
W
W
LW
LW
LLW
W
LLW
29/8 Series
W
W
W
W
LW
W
LW
---
I just want to show this to you as this is like trending based upon math and probability.It has nothing to do with if the trend continues and stop at any time like using red and black patterns the common way.
1. Singles has the value of 1 and Series has the value of 1.
They are equal and there is as many singles as there is series.
2. The bell curve has no limit.
3. We can pick any benchmark to follow.
We can pick a window of events starting from 0 1 2 3 STD and bet for regression towards the mean, correction.
The random flow comes with small, middel and large waves where singles and series chop and create imbalance.
4. The best way is to use tendency play, that means you only play after you have +1.
That means you never place a bet if you don't have present change of the oppisite happening.
This way you prevent to some extant not chasing for events.
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg229.imageshack.us%2Fimg229%2F1018%2Fecartmb6.png&hash=964fd922824bf350451f5d7f3d669500b948190c)
Everything has a element of gambling, that is for sure.
But Marigny and Markow use present states/waves and you can measuring them.
This is how the values looks like
1,13 STD
1,66 STD
1,41 STD
0,81 STD
2,32 STD
0,81 STD
0,81 STD
2,49 STD
1,41 STD
All won using tendency play after +1
EGO...so you would play for a 2 series to appear if you could see recent results showed 5 single vs 2 or say 8 vs 4 from the chart.
You would be expecting another repeat of ec to balance the + SD
Send you PM about the subject ...
Cheers
It is just a different way of looking at ECs. Nothing more nothing less.
True.
People can choose chasing for events using red and black or you can use tendency play where you not chasing events.
Some people may say it is the same thing, but for me is a big difference.
I have seen small tendency grow to 3.5 and 4.5 STD where i only place two bets and if you would play the common way you would lose it all no matter what kind of staking plan you use.
That is a big difference knowing that nothing is due to happen.
If you are expert about the subject, then feel free to elaborate more in detail what you mean that there is no difference.
I have never reach 3.0 STD flat betting with any existing method, except Marigny using tendency play.
That people don't know is how regression towards the mean looks like with real play.
They play around pretending being experts.
I agree ...for what I know. High SD is very visible in small samples using singles and series. Still...I get 9 singles and one series and the singles keep coming. This is where I am stuck.
Then you have no tendency for a present change with 9 Singles and 1 series present so you just continue to observe with out placing any bets.
So not so different to the basic theory behind GUT
Quote from: Turner on September 04, 2013, 02:21:03 PM
I agree ...for what I know. High SD is very visible in small samples using singles and series. Still...I get 9 singles and one series and the singles keep coming. This is where I am stuck.
Turner, can you give an example set of spins to show why you think high SD is coming in singles and series. Lets take an example of 50 spins, so that I can understand what makes you and Sputnik think so.
I don't make any one think any thing.
I just post my findings and we can disagree all day, it does not effect me.
You can see red being ahead and you can see singles be ahead, no difference, so i don't understand what you try to prove.
Each trail is independent and each window of imbalance is independent and the bell curve has no limit as nothing is due to happen.
So what else is there to know, still i argue that tendency play is better then play the common way.
I don't want to teach in public, just a wast of time.
9 singles and 1 series
9 series and 1 singles
9 reds and 1 black
9 blacks and 1 red
9 losses and 1 win
9 winnings and 1 loss
is the same thing, so what do you try to prove?
Turner situation is that he find a small window of imbalance with no tendency.
Lets assume he get one more series, then he has 5 events left to a 3.0 STD.
So it all depends on what benchmark he will use when it boils down to regression towards the mean.
What kind of STD benchmark and from that build a march for tendency play.
The post was for people who believe in single and series ideas to help me understand these ideas. I don't need it proving or disproving. Ego and others have been most generous and I don't want them to shy away from my post.. Im just starting to get somewhere. Perhaps start a new post
Quote from: Sputnik on September 04, 2013, 02:50:47 PM
You can see red being ahead and you can see singles be ahead, no difference, so i don't understand what you try to prove.
Sputnik, I mean no disrespect. All I wanted to understand was the way the STD was getting calculated for single and series so that I can also
learn why we think we reach higher STDs in singles and series faster than Red and blacks. I know the standard formula for SD, but that's not taking me to a +/-3.0SD faster than I would get for reds and blacks.
Believe me, I am not here to prove or disprove anything.
I understand when you say,
9 singles and 1 series
9 series and 1 singles
9 reds and 1 black
9 blacks and 1 red
9 losses and 1 win
9 winnings and 1 loss
means the same thing, if those winnings and losses are for even returns.
What I don't understand is when you say we are seeing more higher STDs in singles and series compared to plain ECs. If you can explain that, then I would like to learn from it.
Sputnik.....
I've been tracking all 3 EC.....tendancy +1 seems to be working in one of them..say h/l....where you would of been sat around waiting if only looking at RB. Have you tried this?
Quote from: Sputnik on September 04, 2013, 02:50:47 PM
I don't want to teach in public, just a wast of time.
If you are eager to teach me in pm am all ears as for years I have found this subject fascinating, but haven't been able to crack the potential behind it.
Now i will try to explain the difference of tendency play and regular play.
Lets say i pick my benchmark using 6 reds or 6 blacks and set the limit to 2.5 STD.
That is 12 reds and 2 blacks or 12 blacks and 2 reds.
Notice the difference.
Regular play you would bet against 6 reds or 6 blacks after 6 of the kind has a show.
Then as noting is due to happen could it grow to 12 of the same and you lose it all.
With tendency play you would just observe and not play if it continue to hit with same color.
That is the first way that you avoid chasing for events.
Now lets say for example you get 6 reds and 1 black.
Then you would do nothing as reds could start hitting again and the STD would grow stronger and you would lose it all.
That is the second way that you avoid chasing for a win.
Now lets say you have 6 reds and 2 blacks, now you know that if 6 reds hit you will have 2.5 STD.
That is why this 2 blacks is a tendency or a +1 indication that there will be a change, so you bet once with out chasing.
Now if you lose then you might get red black red situation that would give a hovering value of 101.
That means that the STD did not grow stronger as it stop and hovering around zero value, so that is also one more bet with out chasing.
Now you have placed two bets based upon tendency play.
Where the STD don't get stronger, then regression toward the mean can hovering at zero point or getting weaker.
Both situation is a win.
what's left ...
You have one attack window of 6 events and you only play when there is a tendency towards correction.
So you build a march to catch does events.
This is how a short test looks like ...
W
W
LW
LW
W
W
W
LW
LW
LW
W
W
LW
W
W
W
That means if you play the regular way then you had hitting 16 series of 6 and 7 ...
That way you can compare tendency play towards regression towards the mean with regular play.
Also decide what kind of attack window you would use.
Thanks Sputnik, are you able to explain it with an example.
For instance, you are saying
"Now lets say you have 6 reds and 2 blacks, now you know that if 6 reds hit you will have 2.5 STD.
That is why this 2 blacks is a tendency or a +1 indication that there will be a change, so you bet once with out chasing."
When you are betting once, are you betting black or red?
"That means that the STD did not grow stronger as it stop and hovering around zero value, so that is also one more bet with out chasing."
Again here, did you bet black or red?
This is not a complete playing model, i just wanted to explain that there is a difference between regular play and tendency play.
Example.
Random org
2013 08 31
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W
2013 08 30
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
2 W
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 L
1 W
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2 W
2013 08 29
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 L
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1 L
2 W
2013 08 28
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2 L
1 W
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1 W
2013 08 27
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W
2013 08 26
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W
I just want to mention that it exist different ways to use a march (indication for attack).
This above is just one example among others.
Sputnik
so, basically, 6 series and 2 singles is an indication i,e +1, then bet for this change to continue.
Bet a single will occur.
its not red, or black, its series or singles.
its not bet red, or bet black, its bet for a single (that could be red if the +1 indication was black) or red if the indication was red.
or in the case of 22222211, or RRBBBRRBBBBRRBBRB....it would be red
In the case of 11111122 or RBRBRBRRBBBR...it would be Red.
if that's right, I will do a back somersault for you
I have only play after 3.0 STD and been using different ways to attack.
I just wanted to show the difference to avoid a 2.5 STD using a benchmark with out chasing for events.
One march bet once direct after 3.0 STD and if a loss you wait for two indication events and if a loss you wait again for two indications.
One other march wait for two indication and attack and if a loss then you wait again for two indication and if a loss you wait again for two indications.
One other march is that you wait for three indications and attack once and if a lose you wait for two indication and attack once and if a loss you wait for two indication again and attack once.
You have to find you own march and see what works.
I had succes with secound one.
Where the indications was direct draw down or hovering state.
Sputnik....please just tell me if I understood correct for that particular example, or I am just flapping around in the breeze
Quote from: Turner on September 04, 2013, 07:32:47 PM
Sputnik....please just tell me if I understood correct for that particular example, or I am just flapping around in the breeze
I don't know,,, i have never use a selection after 1.2 or 1.5 STD ...
But if you would do the same as i describe with my example to define tendency and not chasing, then you would have six series or six singles events.
Quote from: Sputnik on September 04, 2013, 07:51:25 PM
I don't know,,, i have never use a selection after 1.2 or 1.5 STD ...
But if you would do the same as i describe with my example to define tendency and not chasing, then you would have six series or six singles events.
I have no more questions. Thanks for your time.