In other words how do you decide for your method what is the stop loss point and what is the win point.
Well...like i said in my other post....testing will show a drawdown pattern. Stop loss has to be lower or you are giving up before a low point you have seen recover many times. Depends on the system. 1.5 X the common drawdown u have seen in testing perhaps? You should have a feel for winpoint too if you have tested enough.
that's harder because i find it far easier to stop when losing than stopping when winning.
Do you think a stoploss using no. of spins rather than units won/loss is possible? (Or maybe a combination of both.)
I know in some of Vic's cycle-based methods you would stop after a full cycle of spins.
Quote from: Turner on May 16, 2013, 09:18:11 AM
that's harder because i find it far easier to stop when losing than stopping when winning.
What to do when you're winning can be a tricky business - on Betfair for instance, I kick myself for 'greening up' to a no-lose position too readily, while not dealing with the losses in a similar way.
A 25 % loss limit based upon the session bankroll. A 10 % win goal Guarantee. Once the guaranteed goal has been achieved continue playing with the EXCESS until the FIRST loss occurs.
No sweat.
ND
Quote from: NathanDetroit on May 16, 2013, 12:39:36 PM
A 25 % loss limit based upon the session bankroll. A 10 % win goal Guarantee. Once the guaranteed goal has been achieved continue playing with the EXCESS until the FIRST loss occurs.
No sweat.
ND
Yes, sound correct, i have a hole book about the subject by JP ... Money Management ... i just have to get me some time read it ...
Cheers
sputnik,
The JP way is the ONLY way for me to play. This cat knows " what`s what".
ND
Quote from: Sputnik on May 16, 2013, 02:41:29 PM
Yes, sound correct, i have a hole book about the subject by JP ... Money Management ... i just have to get me some time read it ...
Cheers
I thought you were going to say "I just have to get me some money" for a second there. ^-^
The perfect loser never stops until he consume his bankroll.
The dispersion Killer never stops until he consumes the enemy bankroll.
This will take months to happen.......
Dispersion killers do not have a stop loss because they never lose on the macro-game.
GGasoft
@ ND i know exactly what you mean.
I for sure respect JP for his clever ways that i read about.
I have not read it all, but some chapters and does was a really nice read.
I like his view on trending and charting for domination.
I base all my selection upon that now, did not do that before.
JP help me come to some very valid and good conclusions.
Just a simple thing like three bets and if you don't jump on board a trend you quit.
Avoiding the big hole and keep things short and strict losing less.
And opposite towards that winning when you win using Regression Up & Pull which is much superior then flat betting.
I have his Money Management e-book and his Roulette book with 400 pages.
On my to do list is to read them from beginning to end.
Next i will also buy his sport-betting book.
Just because i like his mentality.
Like keeping short and small loss limits and small win goals.
And like his MM techniques about capitalize more when you on a hot strike.
@ Turner i have one year of income for gambling and i will go pro after 1 sep.
Then i will almost quit work and just work weekends.
Then i will split time for work, my kid and gambling.
It is not like that now.
Work, my kid and kindergarden for dogs.
Very little time for gambling.
I have my own team do.
We are two and will rape most casinos around my area.
Quote from: Sputnik on May 16, 2013, 03:53:26 PM
@ ND i know exactly what you mean.
I for sure respect JP for his clever ways that i read about.
@ND and Sputnik - can you recommend the ebooks and books to read about JPs ways clearly. Whatever i have learnt about him is from ND :)
Quote from: NathanDetroit on May 16, 2013, 12:39:36 PM
A 25 % loss limit based upon the session bankroll. A 10 % win goal Guarantee. Once the guaranteed goal has been achieved continue playing with the EXCESS until the FIRST loss occurs.
May be for playing even chances. May be for playing columns and dozens. Do you think this will work on systems that thrive on huge drawdowns, like playing straight-ups. A great example is Ace of spades from ignatus. Is 1.5X of recovery point the only way to identify when to get off. Is fixed number of spins very effective way to decide when to stop? What other elements have you folks used to indicate when to get off?
Quote from: GreatGrampa on May 16, 2013, 04:23:33 PM
May be for playing even chances. May be for playing columns and dozens. Do you think this will work on systems that thrive on huge drawdowns, like playing straight-ups. A great example is Ace of spades from ignatus. Is 1.5X of recovery point the only way to identify when to get off. Is fixed number of spins very effective way to decide when to stop? What other elements have you folks used to indicate when to get off?
don't Get off it is impossible to escape from dispersion....
Bet less.
GGasoft
O0 until the master finishes his course on killing dispersion this humble student has to look a ways of getting off
OK! The reason I started was to figure out if there is a better way of understanding when to stop, other than going for a percentage loss/gain or a set number of spins. Seems like, there is none.
Now, I wanted to share a method that I have been adopting for some of my sessions. It is based on standard deviation of your bankroll. Anyone following/adopting such a thing. If not, I will share the way I am doing it and will look for feedback on how to improvise it.
Gramps!
I am with Turner on this. Testing dictates where you cut and run...and testing also dictates where you jump back in...and testing also is going to guide you in progressions if you are using them both positive and negative. We probably differ on our styles of play but the testing and pattern recognition aspects I think are common ground.
Common sense regarding the percentage against your session bank and overall bank are obvious considerations as well, and your method of play obviously effects the entire bet selection and money management aspects of the play. My playing a single number or two versus someone on even chances is going to be vastly different in spin count simply due to anticipated strike rates, drawdowns and recovery ability.
With that all being said. I firmly believe massive testing is the first and foremost critical aspect. You never see the same thing twice...but you certainly see trends develop and evaporate and everything in-between and with enough experience you don't get rattled and can bet accordingly. Do we ever have it locked down? Not likely. But we certainly can get out or change methods on the fly and give ourselves a fighting chance to prosper.
@ MBB - Agreed. :thumbsup: :applause:
The concept of loss limits and win goals is illogical. If you think you need them it just means you have a poor strategy, and they don't work anyway.
If you lost for for 1 week straight, I'd say take a break and gather everything else.
You stop when you reach 1,000.00, period, and cash out. Then start at a different table and do the same process.
I recently played at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. I was playing 5.00 chips, buy in 500.00 dollars. I played many different tables, taking an average of 700.00 here and there, until I reached about 14,000 dollars. This was done in about 6 hours. I went to cash out the chips I had in my pockets and they refused to cash my chips out because the they wanted to know where I cashed out these chips. I told them from all of the tables in the casino over a period of 6 hours. Apparently, there was a shift change and not many of the pit bosses could verify my play. Bummer. I pulled out my VIP card and said you are quick to give my all of the perks, limo, rooms, food, and drink comps for three days but you cannot cash out 14,000.00 dollars in chips. I had to get the host involved, a pit boss, that I took 1,000.00 on my last play, and his boss to get my chips cashed.
So, you stop after each session and cash out before you proceed to play another table. Remember the table number and the pit boss on deck.
The Crow