BetSelection.cc

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Let's see which betting location is king  :cheer:

It's ages since we had a Poll................. what's the prize Vic? lol

Quote from: Chrisbis on May 21, 2013, 12:52:59 PM
Its ages since we had a Poll................. what's the prize

...Getting to know the stats after voting :D

Good to see my favourite ECs catching up.  I was the first to vote that and we were trailing.  Now we are EVEN :)

My favourite location is not on the list ...


[revealb]you bet the same location as the guy winning at the table[/revealb]

Straight ups are first priority, dozens are second.

Splits cycling.......but there are about 24 different bets involved,including PCWB,ABC wheel sorted,
and many others.....it's just matter of timing while on the table,and having all in the head while
watching last 18 numbers on display board.

Straight up numbers for me. Everytime.

Outside EC-s

Just doubled 25$ with 0.10 chip and highest bet was 1$

How can one not to love those EC-s? :love: La Partage rule. It is nice to see how you actualy get chips when you lose at the same time LOL  >:D   

Drazen

Drasen, how you play this?

QuoteJust doubled 25$ with 0.10 chip and highest bet was 1$

Looking good Drazen, let it continue mate

Quote from: zabbot on May 23, 2013, 10:50:19 AM
Drasen, how you play this?

Well mate explanation is not simple and straight as you would probably like to hear but I ll try.

What I do in general is betting against already severe deviation (like 3.0 STD or above). So when I see 3.0 I start  from that point to bet that it won't grow much more straight...

But I am not relying on the probability of one single event or sequence or pattern, because if you seek strong deviations you will find them for sure and no matter how strong deviation is, after it raises, it still doesn't mean underrepresented events must correct and equalize in the short term, and that you should be going in chase for that until you catch it. That is most dangerous thing to do.

Instead of that I track few different events and betslections at the same time and if after trigger one doesn't hit in 2-3 bets I let it go and search another opportunity like that.

Because it is less likely that already rare events will go even worse straight away and in successive trials at the same time.

All that should give you lower variance and you have better chance for fighting with it and profit with MM and progressions.

MM and progressions are also very important subject in this. Still without good MM it isn't guaranteed you will win in the end.

In my case I developed good MM with which I can actually beat Bays-es 7 out of 11 horror sessions with betting 80 units max, and that is worst out of worst and with raw variance. I though I found HG when I beat first 3 in a row lol. Anyway still it is a hell of achieve I say.

Maybe I can do even better but I don't have time for trying to make it better now. And it seems to me that for this way I play, better MM then that is far away from needed anyway. I am very well pleased for now.

My prime goal is to keep bets low as much as I can. That requires a lot of patience and more time for play but for me it is worth and it gives less stress.

Nothing is guaranteed in this game but, maybe I am in some fallacy lol but my results show there is actually something in this way of playing...

Almost all that I owe to Bayes, because I built my play on his advices and practical knowledge, through the time trying and annoying him with questions  :bored:

He is a true gentleman and I am big fan of his.

There are other people too who had great part in this like Marigny De Grilleau, superman and GLC who also helped me in one or another way but I don't have time nor it is necessary to write detailed explanations now.

That would be answer to your question with all what needs to be said from my aspect at the moment.

Best

Drazen

thanks mate

Well done Drazen.


Patience is definitely key  :nod:

QuoteWell mate explanation is not simple and straight as you would probably like to hear but I ll try

LOL, you sound like me now buddy

QuoteMM and progressions are also very important subject in this. Still without good MM it isn't guaranteed you will win in the end

Ah the achillies heel, do you play the same MM over and over or does it depend on what you see/think/feel is best for that specific moment, I still don't do the same thing over and over, I did find I was doing something over and over but depending on the losses I was juggling it a bit so it ended up different each time a bad session was forming.

Anyway, very glad to see you finally cracked it ..... so far anyway, if you can do it each day for a month or two then you have cracked it, well done, all those PM's seem to have worked for you eventually, nice news mate

Well done Drazen. Probably we have the next Einstein here :) Your pic looks like one :)

No one for dozens?  :o

Thanks Grampa

Well I don't need to "beat" the game. Only make consistent profits without too much stress and bankroll stretch.. So far very good. I hope I got the right way. I am using advices from people who are doing this successfully for years. I hope I got it right. I tested it and make enough efforts around MM of course and it worked good. Now time will tell. I was saying all the time, everyone has to find its own way. I am of an opinion that there is no only one strategy or way of play that can be be successful.

I know many different successfull players and they all use different approaches but still are more or less equally successful.

That on my avatar is Einstein actually. It is cool  funny caricature of him  :)

Here it is in larger size:


[attachimg=1]

Best

Drazen

Quote from: Drazen on May 23, 2013, 02:58:57 PM
I was saying all the time, everyone has to find its own way. I am of an opinion that there is no only one strategy or way of play that can be be successful.

Drazen,
Well said! I have started a thread where we all can pool in ideas on how to develop a strategy that works for an individual. Will be great to see some contribution from you based on this experience of yours. Cheers!

Well done Drazen, and thanks for the kind words.  :applause:

TBH, I never doubted you would get there because you have the necessary determination and perseverance.
Hopefully my congratulations aren't premature, but I think you've cracked it. ;)

Oh, and my fave bets are the EC's.  :thumbsup:

Quote from: Superman on May 23, 2013, 01:42:51 PM
 
Ah the achillies heel, do you play the same MM over and over or does it depend on what you see/think/feel is best for that specific moment, I still don't do the same thing over and over, I did find I was doing something over and over but depending on the losses I was juggling it a bit so it ended up different each time a bad session was forming.

I would say I play it same all the time in terms of the way I increase the bets. But it is different when I cut stakes or taking few steps in back on higher chip size. If I am at higher chip size I will go back as soon as possible onto first previous level, but if not so high I take it like that until new plus.

But one thing I don't understand in your case?

Last thing you said you don't use statistics in your play anymore if I am not wrong? You just play FTL or DBL and try to "read" on your own personal judgment what is happening?

May I ask why? Are deviations as BS a fallacy? :)

Well Bayes is telling it is better to rely on deviation after some point then not.. And for now it seems to me it is so of course.

Drazen

QuoteLast thing you said you don't use statistics in your play anymore if I am not wrong?

Correct, I used to track it all but didn't see any noticable advantage so now I just jump in after spin 1.

QuoteYou just play FTL or DBL and try to "read" on your own personal judgment what is happening?

FTL only, never played DBL, I just go with the flow now.

QuoteMay I ask why? Are deviations as BS a fallacy?

Like I said, I used to build trackers and wait for deviations etc, but the losses would always come so to my mind MM was/is key to survival. Now I just follow the colour and use my judgement to decide on bet sizes if I am behind, like I said in all the PM's to you if the marquee is full of chops I bet small, if I 'think' the series are happening I increase the bet sizes to recover if it goes all choppy again I note the deficiet and wait until I 'think' it looks better.

QuoteWell Bayes is telling it is better to rely on deviation after some point then not.. And for now it seems to me it is so of course

If it works for you then keep going that way, I didn't see any noticable advantage to it. I've played from spin 2 now for over 7 months and probably made around 20 thousand units so it appears to work my way too.

I've stopped playing again for a bit now as I was getting bored, found myself watching dozens hitting 4 or 5 times then chucking units on 2 dozens the odd time, that's my signal to stop for a while LOL Bayes knows how I get sometimes. Why give it all back AGAIN.

QuoteI would say I play it same all the time in terms of the way I increase the bets. But it is different when I cut stakes or taking few steps in back on higher chip size. If I am at higher chip size I will go back as soon as possible onto first previous level, but if not so high I take it like that until new plus

Yup it's good to cut back and wait sometimes, its difficult to do as we want to win and be ahead when the hole is deep, its tempting to bet high after 3 or 4 losses I know but its better to win a few flat betting first I find then use those winnings on the bigger bet decreasing each time, I know I have written off a few 40 unit holes already and started from scratch, makes a long session but is much safer, patience and discipline pays off.

Quote from: Superman on May 23, 2013, 03:50:54 PM
Like I said, I used to build trackers and wait for deviations etc, but the losses would always come so to my mind MM was/is key to survival.

This is a top learning! This summarizes my years of experience in roulette play! There is no real or only marginal advantage in bet selection. MM is the key to survival. Master it and then you cannot let the wheel master you. Easy to say, but very very difficult to implement!

 

Quote from: Superman on May 23, 2013, 03:50:54 PM
If it works for you then keep going that way, I didn't see any noticeable advantage to it. I've played from spin 2 now for over 7 months and probably made around 20 thousand units so it appears to work my way too.

Well  to be honest not sure what should I think about this... What is absolute truth in this?

What if we would wait 10 reds in a row (or more) and played only once or X times after that? Then letting it go and searching same trigger like that?

I asked you this have you ever done some simulation around this but never got straight answer about that...

Would such way of playing result noticeable different in any mathematical way then playing one side continuously or FTL for example? If it can be, I know it will only resulting lower variance as we know in the longterm must be 50:50 minus 2.7, but lower variance is all we need. We can't win flat bet.

I would really like if Bayes could say something about this.
He said many times that waiting for strong deviations can be effective if played in a certain way, but is that provable with some simulation?

You say you don't see any advantage, so why does he as statistician (almost graduated) is using that too and says that all you can look for to "beat" random is to rely on statistics because actually there is only thing that is there ?

Drazen

Quote from: Drazen on May 23, 2013, 06:10:04 PM

so why does he as statistician (almost graduated) is using that too and says that all you can look for to "beat" random is to rely on statistics because actually there is only thing that is there ?

Nowhere near graduated yet, I'm still in the early stages with only the first module almost done, three to go (2 years more study).

I can't speak for superman because I don't know exactly how he's playing, and he doesn't know exactly how I'm playing. I assume that even though he's not using a rigid system, there is some rhyme or reason to how he chooses what to bet and when to adjust stakes. If you're relying on MM (which I agree is very important) then to an extent it does incorporate a bet selection of sorts (even if you simply pick one side and stick to it) because you have to make decisions as to when you reduce/increase your stakes. So it could be that he MAY be (perhaps unconsciously) relying on deviations one way or another. If your goal is to reduce variance then you need to be targeting your play either in the "belly" of the bell curve or in its positive direction. The only way you can be hurt is if you get caught on the negative side, and one way of attempting to avoid it is to stop betting or reduce stakes when it seems you're heading in that direction, and wait for the tide to turn. Personally, I don't see much difference between that and what I'm doing, which is to start play only when you're so far in negative territory that it seems there's not much further you can go. Even then, as you know, I don't simply start after 10 reds in a row, I look at multiple patterns, constantly adapt, and make only 2 or 3 bets before looking for a new opportunity.

Thanks a lot for this explanation Bayes

Well yes those 10 reds was just taken as a simplest example of severe deviation.

So I am pretty sure now I do it pretty much right and that it makes reasonable sense what I do. Like superman confused me a bit. Not some fallacies interfered :) Nobody wants to believe in fallacies  :upsidedown:

Todays sessions went smooth as silk again about 15 units all together with highest bet 6 units. I know there will be time when I ll maybe need to bet a bit more units then this, even with so slow and cautious play, but my MM and I are ready for it anyway :)

Well roulette sequence can be mathematically correctly observed through 3 aspects like RBRBRBRBRBRB for example as a sequence all together and each side or each bet in sequence independently, meaning only reds or only blacks in that sequence.

And that is how I am observing it. Plus as I am most of the time looking to place a bet when two different betselections "point" to the same EC and they are at same or similar STD value.

Anyhow today I have been honoured by random to see full strength of it. I have seen 72 spins without double win  :o IF only one loss more I would suspect something is not right.. But that resulted with 3 wins in a row for me after trend emerged.

Find opportunity, try to snap it (but not for too long if it doesn't burst at first 2-3 shots), search another one, rinse and repeat.

Don't raise stakes to fast, be gentle with it and patient, and you should swim out eventually even if some cramp gets you.

That is the recipe


Best

Drazen

Quote from: Drazen on May 23, 2013, 09:58:20 PM
anyhow today I have been honoured by random to see full strength of it. I have seen 72 spins without double win :o IF only one loss more I would suspect something is not right.. But that resulted with 3 wins in a row for me after trend emerged.

Best

Drazen

The worst I've seen is 81 without a double win. The thing is, you do get what are called "outliers" (black swan events) in statistical jargon. Rare, but they're guaranteed to happen, which is why it's so dangerous to use a staking plan which ignores them. By the time the doubles started hitting, I was only down a few units, and made a bundle in the next 50 spins.  :)

Marshal, did you post this system somewhere?

Straight up for me...although sometimes when bored I will jump on a dozen for a couple spins.  Usually I just stick with a couple numbers straight up though.

My fav bet are the original 22 Action numbers byJohn Patrick.( 0/00 wheel )

ND

Not to forget  the second and 3 rd column bet adaptable to both  the single 0  as well as the 0/00 wheel.

ND

Hi Nathan

Did you post in this forum how do you play with the 22 Action numbers byJohn Patrick?

I think I have read it, but don't remember where. ;)

No, I did not post those numbers They  do not  correspond with   the layout of the single 0 wheel.

Less confusion.



ND

Can you post here?

Quote from: zabbot on May 28, 2013, 10:02:58 AM
Can you post here?

Here you go: http://www.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=7753.15 (http://www.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=7753.15)

Hi Albalaha / ND

Thanks for posting this great link; I've been testing this method with
very good results on real wheel.
I wonder if anyone in the forum has tried it on airball.......?? If yes, what's the results like.....??
Thanks.



Cheers

Rouletta

Quote from: Rouletta on June 25, 2013, 09:24:02 PM
Hi Albalaha / ND

Thanks for posting this great link; I've been testing this method with
very good results on real wheel.
I wonder if anyone in the forum has tried it on airball.......?? If yes, what's the results like.....??
Thanks.



Cheers

Rouletta

can't understand well the progression ??? ??? ???

I play this method in the past and remember i did pretty well.
Brett Morton's variant.

I also remember that some times you go up and down back and forward, then you should quit.
Experiment with the LW-Registry as charting method and try to find some patterns for trending for domination.

Cheers

Rouletta,

Just play  3  sessions at an airball machine according to the  rules , type of wheel available  when selecting  the  appropriate 22 numbers

Don`t be afraid. It`s only money ;Stick to the Loss Limit and set a  win goal

No  details on  progressions  are given.


Play at your own risk.


ND

Hi ND

Thanks for the reply; Yes I will play as you suggested.
I have tested and played the Action 22 numbers on live
wheel with great results.

I will test it on autowheel.

Cheers

R

Lines. It provides a number of options and variances and the odds are attractive enough to place sufficient number of bets :)