As you said; "Obviously each possible pattern ITLR will get the proportional values expected by math, yet we should be more interested about WHEN and HOW MUCH different points of the sequence will make room to some detectable patterns."

And there are plenty of shoes and countless sections of shoes that will and do give way to the different points of 'everything'.

When I used to research bac statistics a while back, the stats were generally a compilation 500,000 or 1,000,000 shoes.  At least the more serious ones, not the forum writer doing a few hundred shoes here and there, etc. 

500k shoes is about 40 Million hands and 1M shoes is about 80 Million hands played out. 

Just for sake of giggles, if you are wagering because of statistics, think about how many shoes/hands/events are in between all those "ITLR" numbers, etc. 

Lots of people playing cannot capitalize handsomely on streaks, extended chop chop, extended doubles or countless other events because of the drummed in belief of, "it can't or shouldn't happen" so they wager continuously for the cut and then when the cut comes, they go for the IAR, etc.  Or, they stop wagering all together.

People should think and think hard at the table and realize that the hands within a shoe (or 2 or 3 or 4, etc.,) at the bac table, are not regulated to fall within the statistical results published and found by the so called 'experts'.

Good decision making is made up of numerous things at the bac table by people that have learned Wagering a fixed mechanical bet and any type of negative progression will lead to losses; Plain, simple and will never ever change, PERIOD.

Okay onward, as KungFuBac said, "Random doesn't mean scattered evenly" and also, "using sequence/counting doesn't improve ones chance probability of success ". 

Remember those, because IMO and that of countless experienced bac players I associate with, will clearly live by those statements as a basis of play.

The true advantage of Bac is being able to follow a shoe, a section of the shoe, or any combination of the shoe's pieces.  Because, nothing can change what is going to happen unlike all other games in the casino.

The shoe is set once the cut card is placed and the burn card is matched with the appropriate number of cards that are not going to be in play. There is no way to set up a shoe by an automatic shuffler, no matter what so many people think or put out there on the Internet. Like I said, the shoe is set, they cannot be changed matter what any player or dealer says or does during the shoe's presentments.

SIDEWAYS BUT ESSENTIAL IMO:

You are great, but at times, you cannot get out of your own way while gambling. Same as so many of the best athletes when they are playing their sport.

You have to recognize what you were doing and why you did what you did.  Recognize your decisions and look at the shoe as better than yourself. In my opinion there's no other way. 

Something out of nothing. It happens and it does influence those that are not conscious of what they are engaging in. Plain and simple, think about it. You better realize it because it sure happens at the table multiple times during the shoe.

Can you replicate?  Figuring it out or just a hot streak? It is an advantaged decision process with risk, especially with holding your win amounts and your continuous Wagering of the shoe or session. The biggest downfall to players is believing short lived hot streaks are the results of their decision making process, because when they begin to lose a few decisions the negativities hits hard and affects their emotional and frustration levels.

And when you are emotional and frustrated, your decision making ability sores into the negativity fast and ugly. And when you allow that to happen, the casino will own your previous winnings and your buy-in amount as well as any further buy-ins you engage in somewhere in the upper 90 percentile of the times!

3 ADVANTAGES THAT ARE ESSENTIAL IMO:

1). Realize What Analysis/Decision Making Is While Playing. You cannot analyze every situation, every situation occurring, every trend or every pattern, etc. There is positive and negative presentments that are happening for each of us at a live table. And you have to apply your decision making with a combination of your opinions, feelings, perceptions and beliefs as well.

2). Application of Protocol.  If you attempt to apply mathematical mechanical protocols to a shoe or two or three or four, you're in for big trouble. This is a proven fact. But in cases of positive wins or negative losses you have to feel comfortable to continue and handle each group of the wins or losses in a positive way. If you don't you will turn a positive session into a negative one, as well as turning a negative session into even a worse session. REALIZE WHAT PROTOCOL IS AND HOW TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE FROM IT WHILE EMPLOYING IT RELIGIOUSLY.

3). Drawdown-Adding Ability to Hit Winning Hands or Sections.  Probably the most important item is to be aware of a drawdown of your buy-in funds.  Most all times there will be some type of drawdown without having the ease of winning from jump street. How much can you handle and what are you prepared to handle? Drawdown is a necessity that seasoned players will expect and not allow it to affect their emotional feelings causing frustration and anxiety at the table, which are amongst the worst things you can inflict upon yourself.  NOTE:  Seriously think about Drawdown and the psychological influences it can and usually will impose on players as well as physically watching your hard earned risk money dwindling in front of you.  And when you walk in and buy-in with your money, it doesn't matter if it's from an outside job/profession/career or from previous wins, it really will not matter. Think!

Totally Unbelievable!  "Dear Judge, I was a police officer but I have a gambling addiction.  Please don't give me too many years in prison because I used to serve our community".  Yeah, Right. What a total menace to society that was a Gun assigned law enforcement officer.  IMO, put him in general population at a hard core prison and not some low level prison camp either.

"A Las Vegas police officer was sentenced Tuesday to 12 years in federal prison for stealing nearly $165,000 in a trio of casino heists, including one in which he was found guilty of brandishing a department-issued weapon."

https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-officer-gets-12-years-role-3-casino-heists-stealing-165k

What a wicked sky earlier tonight.  Completely black rolled in, over a beautiful bright clear sky.  Unique as well, was the UFO looking round opening.

"Whereas the former part of the comment above relies upon common sense and experience (and math), the second part rely upon math, that is by assuming a total randomness and independence of the outcomes being always EV-, a thing completely disappointed by our studies."

Please define the comment you are referring to.  Thanks. 

QuoteAsymBacGuy above:

"..."It's completely obvious that longer streaks will come out more isolated than clustered, and when they are not most of the times is because a shortage of streaks happened so far...."

    I concur.
I think we all agree the referenced shoe above was quite the anomaly. The most difficult obstacle for the players at that table will be to realize "when its over its over." The majority will very likely never see that shoe again. Though many will hunt for it, repeatedly.

Absolutely!  And Absolutely Times a million reference those that will continuously wager for additional shoes to replicate what they just had.

What normally happens because most all have no MMM they stick to, is that all winnings and all their available risk capital goes right into the dealers rack in numerous subsequent shoes after those types of shoes. 

PLEASE NOTE:  I am writing from decades of experience in various areas of the country.  It is not a pitfall secluded to a certain small casino locale, that all types of players do not engage in a concrete MMM that will protect them and control them in multiple ways.

"Yep, I was talking about unfavourable opposite events, I'd guess your shoe is a paramount example of a strong FAVOURABLE situation to get the best about. 

BTW, you can't imagine how many posts of yours have improved our betting model."

Strong Favorable Situation.  Well.  Possibly, but that is an outta left field Bankers slam dunk, especially the latter part, 30 Bankers to a tiny 3 Players.  Only a few at the table really believed in the Bankers and most were wagering tiny bits of risk capital on Bankers and numerous others on the Players side to make its come back. 

Strong streaking and multiple streaks clumped together IMO is certainly not favorable, but does occasionally happen.

BUT, AS I DISCUSS WITH KUNGFUBAC, MY WAGERING STYLE WOULD BE TO QUICKLY HAVE POSITIVE RISK CAPITAL FROM A FEW WINS AND USE THAT TO WAGER, FEELINGS AND EMOTIONAL STREES FREE, INTO SOMETHING THAT PAYS OFF HAND AFTER HAND (for a few hands) QUICKLY REALIZING MULTIPLE TIMES MY BUYIN AMOUNT.  Then apply my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd MMM to the win total at the end of the streaks or the shoe.

"It's completely obvious that longer streaks will come out more isolated than clustered, and when they are not most of the times is because a shortage of streaks happened so far."

The above, as a norm.  But not as a guarantee of course.  And that is a reason so many didn't win anything on the shoe last week of 51B vs. 20P I posted.  And the 3 Bankers streaks were classically clustered/clumped.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11733.msg72116;topicseen#msg72116

"The difference is that at baccarat we are not forced to bet a fkng dime, just let the house to confide about improbable events to happen for "long"."

Oh yeah!  But............On the flip side, if your not on it, you cannot win.

All midi/Macau style bac games, then and now, have every single card-every single deck replaced for every single subsequent shoe, period. 

Might hold true in poker, not in bac. 

At many of the casinos today, there is still player handled cards, but unlike the previous days of 'big table bac' the gamblers do not hold the shoe itself.n

Unlike Phil Ivy and Don Johnson, player handled cards could never ever lead to any advantage by marking them or anything similar. 

Bankers 51. Players 20.

What is very unique, was that it produced 30 Bankers to the Players 3 where those 3 streaks of Bankers clumped together. 

Not much more to say.  Ultra Bankers dominance with some doubles as a prelude to the Bankers showtime dance!

Once again, as I say repeatedly, '0-1-2-3 Ties' usually leads to a very good Section for easy picking!!!  Check out the beginning, (1 tie) simply textbook so!  While it's happening, smack it and smack it hard!  FIRST 48 HANDS, O-1-2-3 TIES, AS I SAY SO OFTEN!

Lots of non belief by the people playing of course.  A few make some profit, those that did gave it back in the hope of repeating it with subsequent shoes, lol. 

Anyway, feast your eyes!

I know it will never happen again , never ever.  But I sure do miss the old school Baccarat rooms and the high limit rooms—ran and patronized the way they used to be, which also held the original bac tables. 

The tables were all two-sided with a capacity of 7 people each side, having their own plenty of space area.  No back betting, no handing money to another, no capping wagers, etc., etc.  There was one dealer standing that would call the cards, once the person that had the shoe slid the cards to the dealer standing.  Yes, each person physically had possession of the shoe and dealt the cards.  The person kept the shoe as long as that person made Banker winning hands, when the person made a players winning hand the shoe was passed to their right.  The person having the shoe could wager for Bankers or Players.

It was considered bad luck and uncool by all means to pass and not take the shoe, or pass the shoe if you made a Banker and didn't desire to deal additional hands.  If you were wagering for Banker, you would slide a card out of the shoe and to the dealer standing face down.  Then you would put the next card under the corner of the shoe face down.  Then you slide the next card for the players to the dealer face down, as well as another card for the banker under the corner of the shoe.  If you were wagering on Players side, you would slide the 2 face down Bankers cards under the shoe to the dealer and the dealer would slide you the Players two cards.

If no one was on players you could tell the dealer standing to flip the cards or hold them face down.  Then you would look at the bankers side cards you had wedged under the shoe.  On rare occasions at certain casinos, one could ask permission to pass the Bankers cards to another person.  If anyone was wager on the players side, then the dealer would slide them face down to whomever had the highest wager or whomever several said to pass them to.  Then you would expose the bankers side cards.

If needed, the dealer standing would call for a third card for the P or B or both.  Those would also go to whomever turned over the first two.

Shoe started in Seat 1 and travelled counterclockwise.  Where the shoe ended, the next shoe would begin in the next spot.  New cards of course each shuffle.  But a real shuffle, unwrap the new cards, mix-wash-shuffle. A true 20-30 mins between shoes easily.  Old cards put in a zip lock bag, marked, tagged and taken away. 

There were no electronic scoreboards.  Most all kept their score and notes on a house provided scorecard and decent pen.  Usually a two color pen at most places, blue and red ink.  Also, no side bets at all.  Only B, P and Tie. 

Most people were not playing a few hands by any means.  Sure a very limited amount of people would come on and play a small amount of hands, then leave, but not many.  Most of those type were frequenting the mini bac lower limit tables on the main floor.  Virtually no one dressed as the majority does today or should I say post late 90's.  Meaning no ripped jeans, no hoodies, no sweatshirts, no shorts, no ultra casual errand running clothes.  Guys had on slacks, dress shirts, Tommy Bahama style shirts, etc.  Women had on dresses, pants suit outfits, skirts and blouses, etc. 

Besides the dealer standing that would call and handle the cards, there would be two banker dealers seated with 2 completely independent chip racks.  One for each side of the table.  There would also be one floor person standing behind each side of the table, the entire shoe.  All dealers and floor people had 20-30 min breaks and got tapped out, etc. 

And as long as the person with the shoe was making Banker winning hands, no dealer or floor could go on break until the next winning player hand.  Same thing with a chip fill arriving at the table, shoe could not be brought in until the next winning player hand was made. 

Before the highest majority of all big bac tables were removed and replaced with minis, midi-Macau style tables, the people playing had the option of playing the big table mini style, where as one of the two seated chip rack dealers would deal the shoe and flip the cards, etc. 

But all in all, the whole atmosphere and level of camaraderie were heads and tails over what it is today.

QuoteThanks for pics(&taking the time to post your real time Play-by-Play/thoughts).

*The last pic(Bottom R) Section 3 certainly had a little clustering(Gold mining opportunity).


Continued Success,

And if I remember correctly, that 14iar banker run, was very lax weak wagering by so many at a full table.

What happened was something along the following.  When those 4iar Bankers came out just before the 14iar Bankers, everyone was hyped up.  Wagering larger on the bankers and pressing up.  All verbally saying how bankers would do the come back because the bankers were behind the players, etc.  Then those 3 natural players iar killed it all.  Bankers had fairly good hands, like a 7 and a natural 8 to players natural 8 and natural 9.  I forgot the third one.  Then the tie was a three card 9-9 tie.  Everyone saying, "can't even win with a 9"! 

Then most go back to players side I recall.  Light wagering with most left on bankers, then it turns and bankers come out like ghostbusters, but no belief. 

Only a few did extremely well.  Most lost or barely covered what they were down in the shoe.  Basically same thing when all those players came out after that 14 iar Bankers at the end!

The below quote is one of mine:

"The key is, like a lot wagering in bac--do not define events that have to happen and wager on them to happen in order to win, wager on what is happening and/or for the opportunities that are presenting themselves or possibly will if there are indications as to that is what might occur."

Picture 1). In the beginning.  'Just One More' I lean towards.  Like whatever is stronger in the beginning, especially when P comes out like sheer gangbusters.  So, bet P, follow it and lose 1.  Again after the short lived B, bet P and simply follow, maybe pos progression heavy and then just pull down the winning hands each time.  Again, lost the last.  Reset.

Hand 24 Banker.  Hand 24 begins 'Just One More'.  Wins hands 25 & 26.  Hand 41 begins 'Just One More' once again.    Personally I would have been (and was) heavy with a few full progressions, from hand 38, follow and pull down all the winning hands and only sacrifice my wager when it falls off to the P.  Same thing with B-iar to complete the box after the 3rd B and straight down.

Picture 2). Has a beautiful 8iar chop chop vs. the previous 2iar chop chop.  Large wagering on the 3rd one on, until it falls off to a double.

Picture 3). Money making 9 Chop Chop.  After the 3rd, be on the 4th until it falls off to an iar.  27th hand a banker heavy for 3,  stay and lose the 4th.  So example 29-30-31 wins and 32 loses.  Doubles, win 2 lose 2.  Start double betting at hand 50 until over.

Picture 4). Hand 20.  Win 20-22-23-24-25-26 and lose 27. 

Picture 5).  Player 9iar with the 3 ties.  After the 3rd player, start betting on the 4th.  Heavy and full progressions for 2 or 3, then just stick and pull down each winning hand until it falls off. 

Picture 6). Section 3.  Bet after the 4th banker, full progressions.  5-6-7 remain the same IMO.  10 wins and 1 loss.  Players wager after the great bankers streak.  Wager until it falls off.  Lose the 2 bankers come back wins or stop after the first banker and reset after the players start again right after that ties hand.  Wager on players until it falls off, but in this case it did not.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 05, 2024, 02:28:08 AMIn summary, W long clusters should be "gambled" just in very few situations and anyway always by not jeopardizing a previous profit or in order to recover promptly an actual loss, thus this is the exact opposite way recreational players like to do."

(The above needs to be seriously ingrained by 'real' players)

AND:

(I have found that my "Just One More" is a subjective way to pick out IAR events brewing to happen.  And remember, it also might be other events besides IAR.)



as.

One of the things that I do look for, is "just one more" events. 

My reasoning is, because change happens and will happen no matter what it is, what is happening or what the gambler desires.  And when it does, I sure have made a lot of great larger positive progression wagers on 1-2 and 3 of the next hands. 

True, that it might go a different direction, but a person needs to understand what the shoe might produce, more so than what he desires. 

The shoe loves to do two things and usually section those out.  Sectioning out means, exclusive to a certain section only, exclusive of other sections, and I favor 3-5 sections a shoe.  1). Out of the norm.  Break and deviate.  In other words, Against the current.  2). Continue with the more likely flow but against what has been produced by one or two more. 

My combat?  Working my buy-in a bit and of course, getting into my casino risk capital with a bit of fear.  But when wins come, dividing the profits into new un-feared risk capital while putting aside my buy-in so I am whole. 

No, you don't know what is or what is not going to come out.  Those on forums that claim to always know and all the system sellers are full of bull stuff totally!  However, if your not on it when it comes out, you can't win. 

I will post some pictures of just one more here.  Please understand that just one more, does not have to be a continuation of P/B iar.  It can very well be chop-chop or doubles, etc.  But for sake of explanation and simplicity, I will post pictures first of iar P/B. 

I will comment on the boards tomorrow.  But the 2nd picture also has a beautiful 8iar chop chop vs. the previous 2iar chop chop.  Large wagering on the 3rd one on until it falls off to a double. 


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