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Messages - alrelax

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1
Baccarat Forum / Re: Beating Baccarat
« on: Today at 06:20:42 PM »
What Asym wrote:

"BTW, the "turning points" topic Al is stressing about is really important."

Sections and Turing Points are a visual to allow yourself to see what is happening, kind of an elimination of events.  Things happen and things happen repeatedly in baccarat.  The order is the problem.  But they do happen. 

* Usually sticks around  50-50 for a rough count, at the end of the shoe or other various points;
* Seldom above 10 + or - and less consistently gets greater than + or - 20.  It does, but not on a consistent and regular basis, meaning shoe after shoe after shoe.  Use the + & - as guidelines, not sole wagering factor alone, etc;
* Long sections of anything mean that/those events have been used, not depleted or forbidden from coming out and being presented once again in the same shoe;
* Nothing has to last, nothing has to happen;
* Shoe presentments like to catch up to the opposite side to equal out at various times within a shoe, some shoes will stay within 3 to 6 hands of each other or even less once caught up, yet other shoes will have one side taking off and outperforming the other side by as much as +20;
* Rarely do shoes finish with + or - 20 for one side.  Occasionally possible, but not a consistent event;
* Shoes do finish with a consistent + or - 10 or less as compared to the finishing with + or - 20;
* The highest majority of shoes will somehow finish within + or - 5 of each other.

2
Baccarat Forum / Re: Beating Baccarat
« on: Today at 06:08:05 PM »
To address what Asym wrote:

"The general probability to lose six hands in a row (no matter when we decide to bet) is 1.5625%
The actual probability to lose when you get three natural 8s, an asymmetrical 6 vs 4 hand, a 1 vs a 3 catching an 8 as third card and a 7 vs 1 is a lot lower.
But it happened.

Be prepared to expect the worst.
Yet itlr we cannot be wrong."

Usually happens at the time the whole table or numerous players agree on a certain side and series of events.  Just kind of the shoe's way of keeping the players in check I guess.  Stopping everyone from getting over confident. But it does happen often in series like that. 

And it always seems to be catching everyone at surprise and the length of times it will do stuff like that.  Winning or coming through on many of the hands but being thrown sideways on ones that seem 'rare' or only one card to increase the opposite side no one is on to win the hand or one or two cards to reduce the side everyone is one with a fairly good hand to lose. 

And for some reason, the highest majority of those times the shoe creates those clusters are usually midway/halfway or the last section of the shoe.   Not always, but the highest majority of the times.

3
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Baccarat Sections and Turning Points
« on: Today at 03:50:37 PM »
Another example of an actual shoe of 'Sections & Turning Points', FYI:

13266-0

4
Baccarat Forum / Re: Beating Baccarat
« on: Today at 03:03:27 PM »
Here is an actual shoe from the other night @ a B&M Casino:

13264-0


I divided it up into 5 'Sections & Turning Points'

The circled numbers are naturals or ties

Final hand point values are 'Player' side on the left and 'Banker' side on the right of each hand

Good typical shoe with lots of variance within it, strong--weak--equal--catch up, etc.

5
Baccarat Forum / Re: Beating Baccarat
« on: Today at 03:01:57 PM »
Ref: The 6 examples posted by Asym:

Those happen quite a bit in real life B&M play, seems more in clusters/groups than a sole individual one here and there, but not rare by any means.  Throws off beat the new players for sure, but they do happen.




6
After reading this once again, I see the importance for the definition of the 'how much' is at risk for the 1st unit in the positive progression.

Two things.  1) I that I do not wager every single hand like many do or desire to do.  2)  Say if I have $1,000.00 in chips for the buy in, the first wager might be as high as $150.00, lots of time $50.00 or $75.00.  Say I had $4,000.00 is chips, might not be four times as high, would probably be $75.00 to $250.00. 

I rather see how it goes and win more by parlay/positive progressions rather than the attempt to do it flat betting or a longer period of time by smaller units. 

"It takes an inordinate amount of courage to confront yourself, realize and accept your limitations and recognize what is actually happening as it is happening.  Because randomness is about probability mixed heavily with skepticism, not mathematical results or wager scheduling of any type whatsoever that you believe will fit into a shoe and repeatedly win your wagers you are placing."

7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Beating Baccarat
« on: December 07, 2018, 04:01:50 PM »
Nice post.

I'll comment about "Essential 8".

(Asym, I will comment on your responses with underlining my responses)


Plan

Yes, we need a plan to play any game of the universe, but it must be adapted to the actual situations. Even if I'm the second best poker player in the world, I do not want to play Phil Ivey being the only customer there. Or the other 10 or 20 best poker players.
Therefore a preordered plan may not find the proper circumstances and very often efforts made to get the best of it simply don't work.

(I can't stress enough how important this single item really is guys!  Super important.  Yes, it is extremely difficult to always stick with it and even more so when others are winning and losing.  When other win, especially reinforcing things you believe in or let's just say 'see', 'predict', or believe in, with the events and presentment of the current shoe, it is even more so difficult.  When they lose it gives you a false positive sense of strength as well as, when they win, you will subconsciously be like, hey I should have wagered and I knew so.  Then you go at wagering without the clear and complete neutrality of thought, you really do need.) 

Willpower-patience

Willpower is everything. Quitting home knowing what could happen and what must happen at the casino is of primary importance. We are not there to hit jackpots, just playing probabilities.
Realizing that most of the collegues at the table will quit as losers could help us. We are long term winners, right?
Most players lose as they are not patient, meaning they love to force probabilities.

(Believe if you keep playing you can overcome the current losing events happening, or keep playing under the impression it is all going your way and you become focused on larger and continued wins.  Both are disastrous situations.  Sadly you will have to experience them both and numerous times until you even recognize them and are able to consciously see those things occurring at the casino.  You can sit there reading computer written stuff and say, "all of it does not affect me at the casino because I already know all that or I am that unintelligent to let those things happen".  Well, it will happen and it will repeatedly happen for quite some time.

Recognize your plateau/levels

Professionals try to win little but steadily per ranges of opportunities.
Profitable opportunities are not around the corner every time.
For a $100 bettor, it's a lot more likely to win $300, $300 and $300 within three different sessions than trying to get $900 in one single session. Especially when we are on the losing side.

(Extremely important.  Do not believe you can keep rising and playing larger and larger and larger.  No matter if winning or losing.  We all have a plateau and a level we operate at, fit into and are comfortable in.  Find yours and know it.  If you do that you can operate a Money Management system of the correct type in your favor and if you can stick to recognizing what is happening, you will lose only a planned amount or if won, you will be able to walk away with a certain percentage of your win money as you satisfied the desire to win more with the eventual partial loss of it, when that happened.  And that will happen, always, 100% of the times.)

Money management

The less the money we bring in at the table, the better should be the efforts to defend it.

(The correct Money Management system will allow you to only lose a single buy in, the buy in or money you brought and were willing to risk.  It will also allow you to only lose a partial percentage of your win money, if you won.  That is the most important thing.  I have described in detail Money Management systems that I found will work.  So many people confuse and believe a Money Management System will allow you to actually win.  It will not.  The same as the pre-set stop loss and the pre-set stop win.  Unless you are really grinding it, like with real small amounts of money, those last 2 are IMO, the largest mind playing and mind altering things that will only cloud and confuse you with what to do and how to actually do it.

Proper Money Management will allow you to recognize and use your win money for capitalizing on continued good luck, events falling your way that you are wagering on and the system will allow you to have the will power and the knowledge as to when to leave a winner.  Sadly, if you are losing, it will also give you fuel to actually leave.  But it all depends on your recognition of events and having the proper Money Management System.

A proper system really does have several different sections.  Buy in is a percentage of your bank roll.  The refusal to buy in if lost.  Win money gets divided up and put into 3 different sections, current chip stack, positive progressions and side wagering or side parlays, etc.)


Progressions

The only way to win at EV- games is setting up a method capable to get more winning hands than losing hands, period.
Progressions just accelerate a possible advantage OR a sure disadvantage.

(Correct.  And this is done when you win and with positive progressions and keeping yourself in the same plateau/level and with complete recognition, will power and control of the happenings.  Focus and understand being on the correct side is timely and cannot and will never be converted to a science with mathematical formulas and statistics.  Once you truly understand, believe and play according to those three things, your play will improve.)


Totally forget comps and perks

It depends.
If comps are so high or certain deals are made with the casino, we have two ways of winning: winning and just breaking even.
Nobody is going to play with the aim to break even. Sometimes he/she should.

(I did not mean to not take advantage of them.  What I did mean was to not play longer or larger or anything of the likes to get food, hotel rooms, or any other items the pit boss or a casino host will award to you for a certain amount of hours, a certain wager, etc., of being played at the tables. If you already earned it because you played the way and style you desired to play, fine.  If you are sitting down and saying you will play 4 hours at say a $250.00 average to get full comp for room, food & beverage, you are foolish.  If you go to an event that was for VIP, gifts, shows, etc., and you gamble because you went, again, you are foolish, IMO.  As far as rebates on losses, they are so trivial, like 2-3% on a $50,000.00 front money deposit with 4 hours of play a day at a certain min. wager, it is really ridiculous to play at that level if you want the discount either upfront or at the end of your session, if you do not normally play at that level.  That is what I am saying.  FYI, 10-20% discounts normally do not even come into play any longer unless you are depositing front money amounts of $250,000.00 or larger.  The average wagers will not be in your favor and you will be pressured and your thought process will become clouded.  It is not in your favor, not one bit.)

Enjoy and be content with what you get or happens

The best section of the 8.

An experienced player knows that every kind of shoe could happen right there. If we are losing small after a "terrible" shoe was dealt we should be happy. If we win we should be happy no matter how much we are winning. Same about breaking even as we are entitled to lose.
Being happy help us to put aside the dangerous world of betting when angry.
I do not know a single player quitting the table as winner when playing angrily.
It's a scientifically proven fact that angriness leads to worse decisions.

(Anger, frustration, clouded judgements, being influenced, pressure to win, borrowed money and everything along those lines are not in your favor and will generally hurt your decision making process with huge negative happenings.)


Don't force to be outside your zone

If our plan dictates to bet from $20 to $60 and we've found out we're wagering $100 in the effort to recoup or to win more, we are just gambling.
It's true that a $100 winning bet will balance in just one shot five previous $20 losing wagers, yet we should wonder why we had lost such five bets, meaning we must win five bets back. And naturally we should think that a $100 losing bet will double in one shot our previous diluted losses. Now what are we going to bet next hand?

(IMO, plateaus and levels are a bit more complicated than that but yes, playing with the believe you can recoup and recoup quickly with negative progressions is the ruin of almost all players.  I don't need to go on about that.  As well, when winning, continued positive progression without a positive Money Management System that allows for such a thing, will also wipe you out rather quickly.  You need to work with percentages and stick to them with religious and constant recognition.  All of that has to be coupled with the proper frame of mind which will assist you in controlling yourself and using your knowledge at the table while playing.  All of it a huge task and not easy to stick to, because your mind will see everything else happening and convince your knowledge side of everything proper, we are going outside of it all just few a little bit of negative progressions or continued parlay and presses because of the zone you are currently in, is 100% wrong.)

8
Baccarat Forum / Beating Baccarat
« on: December 06, 2018, 10:49:10 AM »
Beating baccarat takes experience, knowing what losses and wins are, being in touch with yourself and reality among lots of other things.  If you think it is all numbers and theoretical/mathematical replication at the table, you are extremely misguided, IMO. 

Here are some highlights as to what helps me and what I believe can allow certain players to really excel at the game:

I put this together after an in depth all night discussion with my buddy H-Money and another player. 

The Essential 8:

Plan
Willpower-Patience
Recognize your plateaus/levels
Money Management ***
Progressions
Totally forget comps & perks
Enjoy & be content with what you get or happens
Don't force to be outside your zone

*** = (Lots of people are confused as to what Money Management really means or is.  I have written some of my thoughts on this and I do not believe it should be used to give you false hope for wagering strength.  IMO and experience, it works great if you divide it up into different departments that will allow you to replenish buy in money, set aside other win money for progression wagering and yet, other win money for side bets) 

Self-Sabotage:


Don't realize but it happens, frequently-openly & clearly all the time at the tables.

If you think you know everything, even half of everything, then you would not have lost all that money you desire to recoup and are attempting to recoup, simple.

Trying to change it up
Out thinking the shoe
Mandating your wagers outside the 'sections and turning points', of the shoe
Failing to realize it you cannot follow what is actually happening with the shoe
Failing to ride a strong shoe/section of the shoe and becoming overwhelmed

The bias/The trend/The variance:

Avoid at all costs.  Plain and simple.

You must avoid the personality and mismatched belief's at all cost.  Seriously, they will keep you down or bring you down faster than anything else when playing.

Do not fall prey to getting drawn in and making it personal.

One thing in baccarat, no one can change the outcome of the hands forthcoming.

Only thing is, that you can get side tracked and not play with a clear mind and the proper concentration because you are attempting to make a point or be egotistic, etc.

Sitting at a computer and running theory or practicing on line is a complete different scenario in a multitude of ways than playing live in a B&M casino.

When you have won a sizable amount, you have to get into the frame of mind and be conscious more of everything happening than you were even during the win period.  That is the only way you can control yourself.

9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: December 05, 2018, 05:52:23 PM »
There's an interesting line of thought suggesting that the first half or 2/3 results of a shoe will slightly affect the probability of the remaining outcomes.

More later.

as.
 

And in the highest majority of the cases, correct and IMO & experience.  Hence, 'sections and turning points' familiarization and focusing on.

10
13256-0

13258-1

11
General Discussion / Merry Christmas, Best Wishes and Happy Holidays to All
« on: November 30, 2018, 11:06:42 AM »

Christmas and Holiday Season


The Christmas season, also called the festive season, or the holiday season (mainly in the U.S. and Canada; often simply called the holidays), is an annually recurring period recognized in many Western and Western-influenced countries that is generally considered to run from late November to early January. It is defined as incorporating at least Christmas, and usually New Year, and sometimes various other holidays and festivals. It also is associated with a period of shopping which comprises a peak season for the retail sector (the "Christmas (or holiday) shopping season"), and a period of sales at the end of the season (the "January sales"). Christmas window displays and Christmas tree lighting ceremonies when trees decorated with ornaments and light bulbs are illuminated, are traditions in many areas.

In the denominations of Western Christianity, the term "Christmas season" is considered synonymous with Christmastide, a term associated with Yuletide, which runs from December 25 (Christmas Day) to January 5 (Epiphany Eve), popularly known as the 12 Days of Christmas. However, as the economic impact involving the anticipatory lead-up to Christmas Day grew in America and Europe into the 19th and 20th centuries, the term "Christmas season" began to become synonymous instead with the traditional Christian Advent season, the period observed in Western Christianity from the fourth Sunday before Christmas Day until Christmas Day itself. The term "Advent calendar" survives in secular Western parlance as a term referring to a countdown to Christmas Day from the beginning of December.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

With that said, I sincerely wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season, whatever it is you might observe and/or celebrate.

I look forward to Santa Claus and the good will and gesture Old Saint Nick brings along with him, I know my kids are too! 

So Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you! 

From, Alrelax (Glen)


13250-0

13252-1

13254-2


P.S. 


Santa Claus, also known as Saint Nicholas, Kris Kringle, Father Christmas, or simply Santa, is a legendary figure originating in Western Christian culture who is said to bring gifts to the homes of well-behaved ("good" or "nice") children on Christmas Eve (24 December) and the early morning hours of Christmas Day (25 December). The modern Santa Claus grew out of traditions surrounding the historical Saint Nicholas (a fourth-century Greek bishop and gift-giver of Myra), the British figure of Father Christmas and the Dutch figure of Sinterklaas (himself also based on Saint Nicholas). Some maintain Santa Claus also absorbed elements of the Germanic god Wodan, who was associated with the pagan midwinter event of Yule and led the Wild Hunt, a ghostly procession through the sky.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I personally have adopted the following:  Santa is really the only cultural icon we have who's male, does not carry a gun, and is all about peace, joy, giving, and caring for other people. That's part of the magic for me, especially in a culture where we've become so commercialized and hooked into manufactured icons. Santa is much more organic, integral, connected to the past, and therefore connected to the future.     :bye:

12
General Discussion / The casino, the win, the continued play
« on: November 29, 2018, 11:11:22 AM »
The human factor, the desire, the greed, the thoughts, the rush of winning money and all that!

No matter what you say, no matter what you figure on the computer, no matter how great your will power is, no matter how your math and stats add up to being rock solid, no matter anything, you will always have that influence brought on by the first sentence I wrote here.

If you don't, then you never won a sizable amount as compared to your buy in, within a live casino.  It changes things, lots of things and changes them real darn quick.

Knowing, Experience, The Difficulty, Balanced versus Non-Balanced versus Opportunities.  Those will also play huge roles in the outcome of your live B&M gambling sessions.  Again, if you are not affected by those things or believe in them, then you never won a sizable amount as compared to your buy in, within a live casino. 

The following is about H-Money (my Asian friend I used to write about until several on here blasted me about and questioned why I write about him or that he does not exist).  Anyway, we were at the casino last weekend.  A guy he knows very well from the Asian community was playing blackjack.  A relatively new player, maybe a year or two experience.  Usually buys in for $2,000.00 or so on the average.  Plays at a $5.00 to $500.00 table, 2 or 3 hands. 

I took a break from a baccarat shoe and went out of the baccarat room and found H-Money.  He was standing behind that blackjack player friend of his and cheering him on, with 4 or 5 other people.  The guy was up well over $25,000.00.  Playing 2 and 3 hands at up to $500.00 each hand.  Could not lose.  Was standing on dealer's 7s and 8s when he had 12s to 16s.  His reasoning was the dealer would have to pull if anything other than a 9, 10 or A came out.  And almost every time that is what happened.  A small card under the dealers up card of 7 or 8 and then pulls a 10 and busts. 

Everyone kept saying $50k or $100k in their native languages.  You could see the look, the smile, the glowing aroma of the guy playing.  Yes, no play, no win.  No pain, no gain.  If you stop playing you can't win any more.  I know all that.

By the end of the night, all gone.  He gave it all back and then some.  He was even borrowing money from everyone to continue and get all the win money that he lost, back again.  It was the most he ever won and he lost it all. 

It is not the way to play, it is sad, but so real.  It is the reality of the casino, the games, and every player.  I have protections built in against this stuff and when I win something sizable, I employ my protection and become 10 times more aware of what might or might not happen than during my previous play of winning. 

13
Baccarat Forum / Re: Player Dominated Shoe
« on: November 26, 2018, 05:34:09 PM »
As my time now permits, I'd like to further add:

Prediction, as I'm sure we can all testify, can be rather fickle.  Sometimes we might be "spot on", other times we might be rather "off".  So we come to realize this as a part of the game.  Can't be avoided. But it can (and, imo, MUST) be mitigated.  How?:

Well, first and foremost, we need consistency.  Why?  Because consistency breeds a workable and viable variance.  How?  Because, whether we like it or not, our plays must hit.  What's that you say, gr8player, they MUST hit?!  Yes, you read it right, they MUST hit.  At some point or another, your valid plays will appear.  It is, after all is said and done, only a matter of time.

OK, now that that's out of the way, let me continue:

The first thing that you need to know if you're effectively attempting to mitigate losses into any particularly-tough run is to KNOW YOUR NEMESIS.  That's right....forget for a moment what you need to win, let's focus here and now on what CAUSES YOU LOSE.  What does your losing stretch of decisions appear as?  Once you can readily identify that, you can then begin your process to mitigate it.  In other words, LOSE LESS.  Both decision- and money-wise.  Learning to curb your losses is paramount in this "turn-of--card" game....so you'd best learn to do so.

How about "no-betting"?  That's right....sitting out when your plays are nowhere to be found.  If you can effectively learn to do that, I can virtually promise you a much improved strike rate percentage and, just as importantly, a much more-intact bankroll.

You know where all this is leading, right?  Yes, you do....Patient and Disciplined play.  (I should get some sort of prize somehow, because that's got to be the millionth time that I've espoused the importance of my P & D.)

Why is it so important?:

BECAUSE THEN THE PRESSURE OF EACH DEAL, OF EACH DECISION, OF EACH "TURN-OF-THE CARDS", IS OF LESS AND LESS IMPORTANCE TO YOU.

And then you can concentrate your efforts on that which YOU ACTUALLY CAN CONTROL:

YOU.

Your game played at your pace to be bet when you please and how much.  You are now allowing the game to come to you, as opposed to you chasing the game.  Done correctly, you just might actually still BE THERE when your preferred plays do begin to pop.  And, even if not this shoe, or this table, that's OK too....because you didn't allow your "nemesis" to devour you (or your bankroll).

My friends, until you can fully grasp these concepts, I'm afraid that your biggest nemesis might actually be YOURSELF.  Don't let that happen....it is your responsibility to know exactly who it is that's risking your money.  What is it, truly, that defines you as a Baccarat player?

As always, take care and stay well.


As said in the above post: "Your game played at your pace to be bet when you please and how much.  You are now allowing the game to come to you, as opposed to you chasing the game.  Done correctly, you just might actually still BE THERE when your preferred plays do begin to pop.  And, even if not this shoe, or this table, that's OK too....because you didn't allow your "nemesis" to devour you (or your bankroll).

My friends, until you can fully grasp these concepts, I'm afraid that your biggest nemesis might actually be YOURSELF.  Don't let that happen....it is your responsibility to know exactly who it is that's risking your money.  What is it, truly, that defines you as a Baccarat player?"

Fantastic!

14
Have your cake & eat it to?  Similarity in relationship to baccarat wagering.

"You can't have your cake and eat it (too): is a popular English idiomatic proverb or figure of speech. The proverb literally means, "you cannot simultaneously retain your cake and eat it". Once the cake is eaten, it is gone. It can be used to say that one cannot or should not have or want more than one deserves or is reasonable, or that one cannot or should not try to have two incompatible things. The proverb's meaning is similar to the phrases "you can't have it both ways" and "you can't have the best of both worlds."  Streaks or chops, continuing to play to rack it in or giving it all back, endless thoughts, endless real scenarios.  But so close and parallel in comparison.
 
Having to choose whether to have or eat your cake illustrates the concept of trade-offs or opportunity costs.

And baccarat wagering, especially winning (playing/wagering when there are events happening and you are playing large, not a trivial grind bet) is just like that, IMO.  No different, think about it.

Many players misunderstand the meaning of streak, chop, alternating, pattern, trend, event, happening, opportunity, presentment, and so on and so forth.  Same as the proverb.  Once the opportunity is eaten, it is gone.  Not one bit of difference, really.  Only thing is, money is involved and it is that money that influences the players, IMO, not the event or the opportunity.  Possibly, if the player was to focus more on the latter, the event, the opportunity and stop be overwhelmed about the win or the loss with the money, he would play entirely different, better and more profitable.

"Alternatively, the two verbs can be understood to represent a sequence of actions, so one can indeed "have" one's cake and then "eat" it. Consequently, the literal meaning of the reversed idiom doesn't match the metaphorical meaning.

In English, "have" can mean "eat", as in "Let's have breakfast" or "I'm having a sandwich". So the saying "You can't have your cake and eat it too" may mean that you can't eat the cake and then eat it again; or less metaphorically, that what you want is unreasonable."

A baccarat player IMO, cannot and should not attempt to have two incompatible things.  How fitting, no?  How similar?  How thought provoking correct when you truly analyze it!
 

15
Thought I should let the man himself have a little explanation time within this post, his thoughts as follows:



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