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Messages - alrelax

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1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: February 18, 2019, 04:10:28 am »
Imo to win at baccarat itlr, our plan must be considered in cycles adhering at most by taking into account just two steps:

1-  winning the first hand wagered is of outmost importance;
2- winning the second hand whether the first was lost.

This simple two step wagers plan considered by cycles must have each a higher 75% of success.

When it happens to be wrong at both opportunities, we need to be very careful to place more bets as strong negative variance is going to come out more often than we think.
Thus waiting to get a fictional positive outcome is not sufficient to restart the betting.

The reason is that baccarat is very similar to a coin flip endless proposition, therefore WW, WL, LW and LL sequences are presenting whimsically but itlr they'll be equal.

We cannot guess the lenght of the streaks, therefore we should simplify the problem by considering columns as singled or streaky (any streak).
It doesn't matter what strategy we like to adopt, what really counts is whether how many times we'll win the first or the second hand (really or fictionally), then classifying the results.

Since any bac shoe is a finite limited model, we know that more often than not a losing series won't be balanced by a perfect counterpart and the same is true taken in the opposite direction.

I mean that some shoes cannot be played at all as we do not want to find us in the position to guess the opposite of what our plan is dictating.

In a word, we'll be in a far better shape not playing certain shoes not fitting our plan at the start than trying to follow the actual shoe or, even worse, trying to hope to get balanced outcomes that have no room to show up.

Professional players like to bet a lot on very few spots and they never want to chase previous losses and it's not a coincidence that they'll stop the betting after two consecutive losses.

as.

You are so correct in so many ways.  Great summation, but as I have problem also---is explaining it in detail so all understand.  Just too much.

BTW, the first two wagers or three in fact are almost always vital to the real-serious player, unless you are grinding small min amounts of wagers of course.

Here is something I found from my Blog that I believe fits in here well, IMO:

"And, in my book--you are NOT going to accomplish that by what the highest majority of players say here on this board as well as the other message boards.  No possible physical way!  I have truly been there and done that thousands and thousands of times.  You know, baccarat is strange--extremely strange because  tonight you can win or lose by doing same exact thing you did last time.  Baccarat is NOT like cooking--where there is a certain and a proven way to prepare a dish.  It doesn't change--unless you the chef changes it.   You have a perfect recipe and you repeat it, it will come out the exact same every time.  Same thing with, troubleshooting a motor vehicle.  Same equipment, same procedure, same results doing the same thing.  You know, baccarat is more like hunting.  Exactly.  Different course, different outcomes, different chases, different rewards, different amount of success and different amounts of failure.  Same game!  Also, two hunters can start at the same line with the same equipment, and finish with drastically different results at the end of the hunt session.  Just like the game of baccarat.  It is how we, myself and you and them--handle ourselves, our money--our thought process and our visions-desires-wants--our realization and how each accept the losses or the wins within each shoe and session we play."


2
Baccarat Forum / Re: Pounce on it. Dug back up and reposted.
« on: February 17, 2019, 10:22:46 pm »
yeah well I thought you were going to explain the play from your turning point stuff from those shoes you put up? 


5- 10 proxy peeps?  Where?  This board is pretty dead.  Are you posting over at Baccarat Forum under another nick?

I will get around to it, it takes some concentration, my notes and time.  I have been short on many things the past couple of weeks, especially with the horrible weather and huge amounts of snowfall. 

As far as the question about another board, no way, NO.  Thanks for asking. 

3
I read this a few minuets ago after waking up from my nap on the couch, don't we all do that before we finally go to sleep?

Fantastic, real, explains all the boards and all the people, real quick.  Again, LOL!   C:-) :nod: :applause:

4
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Hindsight Haphazard Plaver Vs. Skilled Bac Player
« on: February 16, 2019, 08:24:44 am »
I had a PM and I was actually congratulated on this past article I wrote.  LOL.  But I decided to bump it.  It is funny with the comment by Jimske how this board is dead, correct.  But also how hundreds come on to read and I watch them and run IP addresses and LOL, funny who lots of them are, LOL!  But anyways, lots of guests and few post.  Again, LOL............................

5
Al's Book Reviews / Boardwalk Jungle
« on: February 14, 2019, 04:12:12 pm »
Boardwalk Jungle.

Reading it now, I believe it is out of print but I obtained a used copy. 
About Atlantic City, New Jersey and the casino industry.  Down and Dirty.

6
Baccarat Forum / Re: Pounce on it. Dug back up and reposted.
« on: February 14, 2019, 03:19:54 pm »
And by the way, some have said that I believe that I am the only one that knows how to play baccarat and win.

My answer.  Not by far.  However, I take my time, I post, I put energy into this and I communicate and found numerous internet friends and a few panned out to become real life friends.  The others that start the drama, the trouble, the brew haha and one liners and insults, the humiliation, the chastising and the stabbing of people/members like myself, are the jerk offs and the trouble makers that need to be banned, kicked off and shoved into a closet and locked away from good forums such as this one.

I am proud, most of the time, of what I post.  I have changed somewhat over the past few years and cut down lots of the attempted pun, jokes and side commentary that go well with real friends and forums where everyone understands it all and their are huge amounts of social and sideways, types of conversations and reasoning's out loud.  Unfortunately, there was and is still be proxy, a group of 5 to 10 people out there that are computer superiority posters whom all attempt to control each forum they hibernate to.  IMO, they ruin it for the real players attempting to be members that participate within a forum such as this one.

So be it.  My piece said and done. 

7
Baccarat Forum / Pounce on it. Dug back up and reposted.
« on: February 14, 2019, 03:11:44 pm »
What is Pounce-On-It??

Game On!  There, but not there.  Seconds--Minutes--Hours.  A few hands or numerous hands.  One or two shoes.  Never a long, unlimited time, IMO and my experience. 

When it comes--it is the absolute heaven and organismic moments of the game.  If you play with your head down into your hand that is propped up on the table and you expect to lose, or you are playing with a mechanical strategy built up from some kind of criteria of playing those cuts, where as the person is wagering for the opposite side, please skip reading this and just block me on here because we will never see eye-to-eye and you have nothing to learn from me and I have nothing to learn from yourself. 

Otherwise, experience it--treasure the pounce on it moments and take advantage of them, because that is the cream and the cherry on top of the cake, within this game.  I emphasis the cream and the cherry big time!

But, and a large but.  Do not live for them or except them every time.  Attempting to do so, will break you.  Just like those people that wager every hand with the Fortune 7s, the Panda 8s and the other ones that pay 200:1, etc. You will win and you will lose.  Again, and I have repeatedly said it.  If you keep wagering for something in baccarat you will lose, sometimes the same night and always after a series of playing.  You will never come out ahead unless you play all sides, alternate your wagering, use positive progressive very aggressively and use negative progressions extremely sparingly and more.   

Game on, is a difficult situation to catch all the time, actually IMO, impossible.  Because the game of baccarat is open to interpretation by each of us, we are influenced by many different things, such as:

   Our experience(s)
   Other players
   Dealers
   Our own perceptions
   Our dreams and goals
   Our greed
   Not stopping during a good thing (greed/think we can get more)
   Not stopping during a bad thing (have to get it back, thinking you can)
   Following the fallacy of wrong info and data that will not apply
          to the shoe you are playing, not that it is wrong, just will not apply.

Those, along with others will disallow yourself to 'pounce-on-it' when others are or you very well could have been! 

And so many more things for each of us.

Take Friday night for instance.  The Thursday night session I postponed until Friday night because  I had to do something else and I would have been too tired to drive back and open the business in the morning.  My buddy and I went.  Speculation?  Yes.  Hype and talk on the way to the casino?  Sure.  But do we always do what we plan or say we are going to do?  Of course not, the same as an NFL game I can only imagine. 

And, as I wrote about and boasted a bit on the board here with the $5k plus win on Friday night playing a total of 4 hands.  Will there always be a '143' F-7 outcome with the same leading up to events?  Hell no!  And I don't expect it to.   But, that one did come around through friendship, playing together and being in the right place at the right time.  Nothing else.  No magic.  However, there is a point here I am getting to.  And that was the 2 following hands!  We 'pounced on it', both my buddy and I with table max wagers on the banker side.  That is the positive side of camaraderie and the pouncing on it at work.  We overpowered the shoe.  Not that we changed it, just overpowered it with our wins, that we would have won $100.00 as easily as we did $2,000.00 per wager.  Our screaming, yelling, clowning around, putting cash on the table for the dealer if she makes an F-7 (dealers keep their own tips at this place) and all that.  That F-7 would have come about anyway, yes.  But the aura changes, the mood gets going, win is in the air, etc.  Even if we were betting for a streak, and a streak comes.  We can do those things on every single hand and when it is time to cut the streak, the streak will end no matter what anyone says or does.  But we can overpower the shoe with the right frame-of-mind. 

But, you have to let it go.  As I say, reset and refresh, it is the only way to be successful and have your game ready each time. Experiencing the best and accepting the worst. That is why I am convinced about the smaller buy-ins and the buy-in is 100% risk money.  I do not subscribe to the worthless theory, IMO--of 'loss stop', like - 4 or -6 units and stop.  Senseless, IMO.  I do well with the buy-in as pure 'risk'.  I know overall my wins are countless times greater than my buy-ins.  And as long as I, employ 99.9% of the times use and follow my M.M. system, I will stay ahead--well ahead of the losses baccarat will incur. 

We are mature--but you have to have that 'peace' within your self when you lose a buy-in.  You cannot sit there and continue to buy-in repeatedly in the thought, that you will recoup your losses right then and there.  That is the exact reason that my other buddy H-Money lost in excess of $50,000.00 of his own money in a very short period of time.  Even when he won certain sections of his sessions, he would continue and continue to play and eventually lose the win, the buy in and whatever else he had available.  That is the way this game is.  If you don't realize it, play that way and come back in a few months and then maybe learn something?

Like I said, H-Money did not believe me and follow me.  It cost him $50k to $60k of his 'blood sweat and tears' savings.  Welcome to reality, pure 100% reality.

What you do and win within any section of the shoe or the entire shoe, you very well might not be able to do with later or the next session.  Period.  If you believe you can, any casino will welcome you and take care of you in the way of comps and promotions because they know 100% what will happen. 

As well, as I have said many times--"What you win doing in one shoe--you will lose in another one and possibly even the same one".  That is why every system that is pre-scheduled and conceived from a criteria that the player waits for a certain event--will ultimately lose more than he wins. 

8
Baccarat Forum / New Table in Baccarat Room
« on: February 10, 2019, 07:01:18 am »
One of the newer 12 person, 36 player position tables in one of the places I play at.

This one is in a private room.  It takes 2 full time dealers, one for each side (same shoe) and one full time floor supervisor to run the game.

Here is a picture with an edit on the faces of those i captured. 13342-0

9
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Superbowl 2019 Here we go!
« on: February 04, 2019, 03:18:27 am »
I knew it, low scoring, and NE won, no doubt. 

Laugh at the hype about the Rams, just what the books wanted. 

My close buddy won a pocket load of cash, he was a little worried around half time, but the calls were fantastic by the NE coach, although as said before, those two, Brady and Billichek (sp?) are two of the best in the entire NFL, period.

10
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Superbowl 2019 Here we go!
« on: February 03, 2019, 06:18:48 pm »
My buddy is all in, will not change his comfortable lifestyle and he is far from addicted.  He just saves every bit of his winnings from last year and wanted to do something like this.  Not his every day cash. 

I am ordering a bunch of pizza, going to go grab some stuff at the market.  I have a full week of work to do with closing out the business concern i was involved in for 5 years or so and getting stuff redone at my restaurant and bar set up.  The weather has been so bad, now a bit better but more snow on its way. 

A nice break with the Superbowl today and as well, Asian New Year's. 

Update with everything later on. 

11
Alrelax's Blog / Superbowl 2019 Here we go!
« on: February 03, 2019, 04:16:37 pm »
Well, here we are, another Superbowl.  2019.

First off, I detest New England 100%.  I am from the Northeast, NYC/New Jersey born NYC and most of my life in the area or in NYC and New Jersey.  I am a Jets, Eagles and Vikings fan for the longest. 

I used to be a heavy NFL and Collage football bettor.  Did great for the longest time and stopped it all when I left New Jersey 2002 for the Midwest.

I placed on NFL wager this season a couple of weeks ago in New England and made it with the point spread, almost did not, just squeezed by.  If they were the favorites, I would have lost the wager. 

Everyone I talk to about the Superbowl is saying New England will never win.  I disagree.  Because Brady always the highest majority of the time is spot the frick on!  He is totally the go to with the know how and does stuff that is expected but the other team is counting on him to chicken out.  IMO.

My buddy, the retired NYC cop out here near me, just took his whole year of baccarat winnings, about $20,000.00 and put it all on New England as well.  I am wagering New England, not the over-under or anything else.  I am not putting life changing sums or anything of the like.

I do wholeheartedly believe that the bookies convince the press what to say and how to say it.  The last article I read last night was that it is a no brainer and the Rams will score high and walk away with it.

Seriously?  IMO and IMO only, this will be a close match, New England will win and the books want everyone to go high and with the Rams, because that most likely will not happen. 

As we all know in sports, it is not always the most talented or experienced or the best that does win.  There are numerous factors, strategy and team work that influences and changes the game and the outcome, each time.  And that is the problem with picking the winners beforehand.

12
Sports Betting Forum / 2019 Superbowl
« on: February 03, 2019, 04:15:13 pm »
Well, here we are, another Superbowl.  2019.

First off, I detest New England 100%.  I am from the Northeast, NYC/New Jersey born NYC and most of my life in the area or in NYC and New Jersey.  I am a Jets, Eagles and Vikings fan for the longest. 

I used to be a heavy NFL and Collage football bettor.  Did great for the longest time and stopped it all when I left New Jersey 2002 for the Midwest.

I placed on NFL wager this season a couple of weeks ago in New England and made it with the point spread, almost did not, just squeezed by.  If they were the favorites, I would have lost the wager. 

Everyone I talk to about the Superbowl is saying New England will never win.  I disagree.  Because Brady always the highest majority of the time is spot the frick on!  He is totally the go to with the know how and does stuff that is expected but the other team is counting on him to chicken out.  IMO.

My buddy, the retired NYC cop out here near me, just took his whole year of baccarat winnings, about $20,000.00 and put it all on New England as well.  I am wagering New England, not the over-under or anything else.  I am not putting life changing sums or anything of the like.

I do wholeheartedly believe that the bookies convince the press what to say and how to say it.  The last article I read last night was that it is a no brainer and the Rams will score high and walk away with it.

Seriously?  IMO and IMO only, this will be a close match, New England will win and the books want everyone to go high and with the Rams, because that most likely will not happen. 

As we all know in sports, it is not always the most talented or experienced or the best that does win.  There are numerous factors, strategy and team work that influences and changes the game and the outcome, each time.  And that is the problem with picking the winners beforehand.

13
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
« on: February 02, 2019, 06:13:44 pm »
Had to post this, what the heck?

Being raised in South Florida during the Miami Vice Days as it was labeled, I got a quick out of this building the other day here in the Midwest!

13333-0

14
Baccarat Forum / Re: 1-27-19 2 Shoes to Discuss
« on: February 02, 2019, 04:22:58 pm »
The shoe last night a group of us all looked at each other and verbally and physically put the camaraderie into play and stuck to the first two rows on the Bead Plate. 

I have been saying the Bead Plate is the strongest and most, hold true, scoring of the board or writing on the card.  When it is strong or redundant of anything, the lines and the patterns within the Bead Plate will replicate easy or easier to win wagers than most anything else within baccarat, IMO and that of many other people.

Look at the 1st and the 2nd lines on the Bead Plate:

The first line, 2 X 2 Players max and 2 X 2 Bankers max, straight across.

The second line, 12 Bankers (there was one more after I took the picture in the last few hands of the shoe), with only one player on the line. 

Several of us got together, talked about it after the first few vertical lines formed and we committed to wagering for the repeats on these two lines. 
 
I will stress, this is a proper road to follow if you can control yourself, (REPEAT--CONTROL YOURSELF), do not chase more than 2 or 3 things on the Bead Plate, 1 or 2 is better most times. 

15
Baccarat Forum / Re: 1-27-19 2 Shoes to Discuss
« on: February 02, 2019, 09:16:12 am »
Another super Bead Plate to follow, some of the people smacked the hell out of the house and the rest of them lost their rear-ends big time.  But there were about 20 huge wagers that made a few people well over $100,000.

13331-0

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