You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

YOU SAID:

"a) Taking for grant that bac shoes are really randomly offered;

b) It's the corollary of the above point, that is considering baccarat as any other gambling game where the 'whole' findings (infinite shoes) matter instead of focusing about 'single shoe' dependent features and properties."

And, what you said above, is probably 2 of the biggest mistakes most all make.  First, one assumes and believes that all the forthcoming presentments are truly random (and without reason) from the shoe. 

And, second that most all will be continuously (CONTINUOUSLY) running their findings together as a constant play rather than a finite or sectioned event.

Think about it, really sit down and give it thought.  Personally, I certainly stopped the all too famous and popular, "well so and so happened, so now such and such must occur", etc., etc., wager justification rants at the table.  Except maybe, when it is at those +10 and at or near that +20 count. Other than that, I am most certainly wagering for what is being presented rather than wagering for those dream full whole findings to come out and match up with math/stats/results and so on.

Trick of Baccarat.  What Casinos Love in Baccarat, Simple Yet So Misunderstood.

There are huge psychological effects the game instills on players, while you are losing as well as winning. You better research those, understand them and consequently combat them in your wagering.

So you have to look past those mathematical results, those systems being sold and partially  highlighted all over the internet and as well, published statistical results in order to figure out how to give yourself the real knowledge, you really need to win. 

Why do I say that?  Here, about those 3 things.

1.  Math.  Because the math will apply only to the total amount of results that it was derived from. Example, 1 million shoes or 80 million hands.  2 million shoes or 160 million hands.  It does not apply to the 1, 2, 3 or 4 shoes you are sitting down to play for real money, in real time, for real results. Simple. True. Proven.

2.  Systems.  Because all systems are only selective highlighted events that may or may not happen. Simple. True. Proven.  But every time someone puts a little twist and turn on some type of highlighted system event, it makes it look easy with no downsides.  People are gullible, greedy and ignorant to the true factors of the game and what it really takes  to win any amount of money people claim is fool proof or should happen without much downside, if they only buy and subscribe to their system, etc. 

3.  Statistical Results.  Because the statistical results will only apply to the same mathematical conglomeration of tests that were performed. They are not going to be reflected within the 1 to 5 shoes you were sitting down to play with real money, in real time, with real results.

There are three types of areas that produce tangible events, that happen during a shoe of Baccarat. Favorable, Neutrality and Negative.

Understand those above three areas 100% and couple those consciously with the four most important factors of playing the game.  Realize that there are areas and factors. 

First Factor.  Buy-in/Bankroll.  Your buy-in must be  only a small percentage of your bank roll.  A good safe safe percentage would be 10%.  Your bankroll must be restocked before any profits are taken if it's going to be any type of safe sound bank for you to draw from on a repetitive basis. 


Second Factor.  Understanding Drawdown.  There will be drawdown usually quite frequently before (BEFORE) you realize any type of session goal countless times. You must cooperate and realize this and not let it get you into the negative frame of mind, because of the psychological effects of losing your part or most of your buy-in, getting into the monetary negative or even losing a whole buy-in amount. 


Third Factor.  Positive Progressions.  Using positive progressions to restock your volume drawdown, lock it up and capitalize on your win money; is ultra positive in countless ways to your agenda on winning.  You better think about the aforesaid and understand it.  I guarantee you that it is clearly easier to win without  negativity whether it's on your buy-in or yourself, psychologically.  Remember that!


Fourth Factor.  Plateaus/Levels.  Understand and acknowledge your plateau and levels with total consciousness and allowing them to guide you no matter if you are winning or losing .

Here are some proven blacklisted casinos to avoid.  Be cautious, there are others out there you will have problems with.


https://www.casino.org/untrustworthy/

QuoteVery very nice passage!!!     

No jokes.

as.

I believe those are the 'circumstances' where I realized and defined the M.M.M. I've written about, which includes my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd allocations.  The highest amount of times it allows myself to hold at least 2/3rds of my larger wins and my buy-in money, while keeping available 1/3rd of my win for continuous play/winning, etc. 

Although that is NOT in anyway a decision making tool for how to win, it does with physical regulation manage my win money.  Unlike most others that fall direct prey to winning, which results in 99% of the time or greater, feeding it right back to the rack as well as their buy-in and additional monies they will attempt to regain their good fortune that came and went. Sad but absolutely true. 

And BTW, that score board is one of the greatest 'suck'em things' in the casino's favor they ever did with baccarat.

If there are people at any kind of bac table, some will win and some will lose, no matter what.  All will never wager on the side that continuously wins or loses every single hand. 

Like myself, when a player has had a nice run and begins to give it right back to the rack with aggressive wagering, especially wagering with the exact same reasoning that won him/her the sizable amount in the first place, it is a very commonplace event that their decisions are not generally going to produce continuing positive results for multiple reasons that occur more often than not.

Whether that influences you to wager the opposite, you are still attempting to match the presentment the shoe is setup to present, no one can change that.  You can only change or influence yourself and others what to wager on. 

The game does not allow anyone to continuously employ any type of mechanical system/method or decision making process in repetitive mode in abundance.  If it did, they game would not exist in a casino, period.

QuoteI have a question Al:

Do you think that the winning process is somewhat affected by the 'ability' of the other players sitting at your table?

Many players I know do not like playing alone at a table.
What do you think?

Thanks in advance

as.

Very difficult to define with short and concise answers.

But for sake of conversation I will state my opinion.

First of all, unlike many others, I rarely wager against another player because he is losing, etc.  I do know numerous (a lot) of players do exactly that. 

Second, I rather play at a table with numerous other players for camaraderie purposes.  I have won a heck of a lot more than I would have, by engaging in strong  camaraderie with others.  As far as losing while engaging in camaraderie, so what, you risk your money with no guarantees anyway.

Third, being the only player at a table, is extremely stressful to myself as I do not desire to engage in every hand. 

Sitting at the baccarat table the other night and the last hand, an F7 comes. Yes, I was on it, because of numerous reasons. But it was the 4th F7 of the shoe and it finished 41 B to 30 P.

There was a very unique occurring five times, maximum 3 chop-chop in the shoe.  There were several other events that happened as well and were capitalized on by myself and others. I will post a picture of the scoreboard once our attachment posting problem is fixed.  The majority of people made money, but in the following shoe, which was classically easy to follow, most lost quickly. 

The next shoe brought a great start, banker-player player followed by a 7 streak Banker and an F7 on the 8th hand, within the streak.  Then there was a beautiful seven time chop-chop event that happened immediately after the seven banker streak. I did extremely well. I colored up and cashed out.

The cage is not far from the baccarat table. I cashed out and went back to the table to see what was happening. It turned out there was a problem with the hand after I colored up and left. There was another chop and the banker came out. The dealer picked up the first few spots Wagers which were on the banker and the game was stopped and surveillance was called to determine what the wages were to replace them on the spots. The hand was completed and I threw up a few hundred dollars and wagered max on the F7 and the rest on the banker. They all looked at me and said, "you don't see the chop chop". My answer was, "but there was eight hands in the beginning and an F7, now you have eight chop chop and I feel another F7 is coming or banker".

Most all were on players with large wagers. Myself and one other person wagered the Banker and the F7. Cards dealt, Players have two face cards, bankers have blackjack, players pulled a six and they were all fist pumping in the air and calling out, 'chop'.  Dealer flips another six for the banker and my F7 happened.

Clearly the player side is verbally citing, WTF and saying how that should not have occurred, Etc., Etc.

But as with so many things in the game of baccarat, the same things that won previously, lose presently. And the same things that lost previously, will win presently.  That my friends is random variance defined in realistic terms. 

And while sitting there at the table during the shuffle prior to the last shoe I just described, I dwelled on how the majority, mostly, confirm the absolute unpredictability of the game-over and over and over, week after week after week, but yet continue to get sucked in by the casino's score board. 

NOTE:  I will post both pictures of those two shoes as soon as the attachment for posting pictures is fixed on our forum. Thank you.

More so than not, the first 1/3rd followed by and within the first half of the shoe, have a greater amount of F7s and P8s than other sections. 

To me, it's not really the predictability, it is more the capturing of possibilities that exist and are forming. 

There are balances and imbalances.  There are the pathways to each of those that are being realized several times throughout most shoes.  A person open-minded enough without mechanical wagering emotions, is likely to be able to wager winning sides within sections much easier than those that are hell bent on following their systems and figured out 'must be's' to appear. 

Many might have noticed I had all the online casino banners and advertising removed from my forum.

Why?  Because of their dishonesty and outright lies.  Yes, we would get a commission based upon sign ups and plays.  When I questioned the online casino officials, they told me a ridiculously low number of sign ups and play from my forum the past months. 

Well I signed up myself and had another 4 people open accounts as well. Those 5 accounts were never accounted for and added to my forum's tally and commissions. 

As well, I had one member claim he was cheated and he stated his case to me.  I believe him and his proof was rock solid. 

So it clearly appears to me, they do these sort of things on a regular basis, therefore they can do their business on The Wizard of Vegas and other gambling forums, NOT MINE!

Thanks,
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner

Yes, absolutely you can post these sort of links.  You are a well established member here.

I do not allow new members to post links, sites and related websites because they are posting sales related systems or online casinos that they are a salesman of sorts for.  Many of those sites have very little regulatory restrictions and bad payout records. 

Thanks for your participation here!

Few upgrades are being performed including fixing problems that exist reference attaching pictures, etc.

The forum is going to be in maintenance mode intermittently during the first days of March while this fix and the new badges code is being implemented.

Thanks for your understanding and patience.

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Administrator and Forum Owner

Banker had 2 times, 3 IAR and the third cards for the first 3IAR were a 6-8-9 in that order.  The only other guy and myself say to each other, that 7 is coming, look we had 3 perfect setups for an F7 win if we got a 7 card on any of those 3rd ones.  Then the second 3 IAR, the third cards for that 3 IAR were a 6-9-8 in that order.  Another perfect set of 3 chances if we only got a 7. 

This was the beginning of the shoe.  The first 3 hands were 3 IAR banker, then a player, then a banker, then a player, then 2 bankers, then a player, then the second set of 3 IAR bankers came.

Only the other guy and myself at the table playing.  We were both betting max Fortune 7 each time.  So like 12 hands were out now.  I looked at him and said, what do you think?  He shrugs his shoulders and says, no feeling.  He places min wager on both the players and the bankers and a very small F7 wager.  It was a tie.  He does it again, and it was a players win.  I sat out both times. 

After that second time, I was like, this isn't going anywhere.  I wagered bankers side but no F7 wager.  The other guy playing is back on banker and max F7 wager.  Dealer deals.  Players have an 8 and a 2.  Bankers have 2 face cards.  Players third card is a 6.  Bankers third card was a friggin 7 for the F7 win.

Why is it almost always like this?  The first hand sitting the F7 wager out and it appears.  Happens quite frequently IMO.  Not just with F7 wagers, but with increased large wagers on P or B and also ties, etc, etc. 

Some type of phenomenon I guess. One of many, within an actual B&M bac shoe when you really think about it.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Posted 8-22-2019.  Revisited 2-26-23 because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Not to present what it is setup to produce.  Thanks, talk later, Alrelax.

We are all different at the table, the highest majority of the times.  That doesn't mean we both, or me and another, can't get to the same exact decision many times.  But it is really the peripheral thoughts and beliefs that will excel us into further and larger wins, knowing how to take wins and allocate percentages for hold or continuance, time to play-time to stop, etc., and so on.

There is a heck of a lot more than wagering and it's selection.