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Messages - alrelax

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Baccarat Forum / Re: 2 Great Shoes Last Night!
« on: November 26, 2020, 04:27:04 pm »
Babu- look at the three shoes posted by Alrelax at the top of this thread and look at how many times that there were hands above a run of 3 or less.........these shoes are fairly common and best illustrate what I was trying to explain. ............but it is still very difficult to create a winning method using this information except by using a money management technique where you have a relatively small loss target for each shoe you play and have a very conservative progression to recover losses.....such as a goal of losing only 6 units a shoe and a profit objective of 3 units a shoe.......and when you are down 18 units  flat betting, then bet 2 units until you recover and go back to betting 1 unit flat betting.......and never bet more than 2 units for one bet.

For example,  the following 9 shoes which has a bad run losing 5 shoes and winning 4 shoes

win  3 units
lose 6
lose  6
win 3
lose 6
win 3
win 3
lose 6
lose 6

You are down 18 units now start betting 2 units instead of 1 unit and maybe something like this happens

win 6
win 6 
lose 12
win 6
lose 12
win 6
win 6
win 6
win 6

So you win 18 units and you are even and now go back to start betting 1 unit.

Most people who seriously bet on baccarat , roulette, sports , soccer(football),  basketball, american football  baseball etc etc eventually come to the conclusion that just like starting any other business, you will need a big bankroll to succeed in the long run, and of course "big" is a relative term depending on how much you will bet and what type of conservative or aggressive money management plan you will use to handle the inevitable adversity which will occur.   

Best example is if you are an owner of a restaurant during the current pandemic, the restaurant with a large amount of capital ( bankroll) has a much better chance of staying in business until the pandemic is over than the restaurant owner who has very little capital(bankroll) to support his business.

Whether you are selling pizza or tacos or betting on the yankees in baseball or manchester unitited in soccer ( football ) or the lakers in basketball or player or banker in baccarat or red or black or streets in roulette...................if you are not sufficiently capitalized (bankroll), it will be extremely difficult for you to be successful....this is especially true of people who try to make a living playing poker......playing poker games where the bet size is too large for your bankroll will eventually wipe you out due to the extreme variance in profits and losses playing poker...................and eventually you will come to realize that your ultimate success or failure in poker is not your skill level and experience but the other people you are playing against......if everyone at the table has the general same skill level and experience as you, in the long run, the money just travels  around the table and the rake and dealer tips and bad beat jackpot contributions and your personal expenses, ( rent, food, car expenses, insurance etc etc ) will eventually bankrupt you. If you can not play against other opponents where you are a better more experienced poker player, you will eventually lose.

However, most people are only recreational gamblers so it really does not matter how much bankroll you have, or how much you bet.

Great post!  Too much common sense mixed with reality, most people cannot relate to it.  As most are internet recreational only these days, IMO.

The 2s and 3s are the best and most outstanding for the player to capitalize on.  However most all players fall to their belief at the table, once they start winning they will continue.  They virtually all get sucked in. No matter the size of their bankroll they lose it to the casino,

Baccarat Forum / Re: 2 Great Shoes Last Night!
« on: November 23, 2020, 01:49:58 am »
Very well 'real world' said Asym.

Baccarat Forum / Re: Balancing Win to Exploit
« on: November 13, 2020, 01:30:42 am »
Okay...but tbh I still don't understand why you wagered heavy on thr 2nd player in hand #15....

I want to say the last three Banks prior to those players clumping up, the bank just squeezed by with one or two or the third card reduced the players. And coupled with the low ties we were expecting something to happen. And that's what we were counting on.

Baccarat Forum / Re: Balancing Win to Exploit
« on: November 13, 2020, 12:34:22 am »
The match between observations and expectations is relative, do not think it is not.  100% relative to be successful in the game of baccarat. 

So I was wondering....if the bead plate showed consistency and so with the main road..... it happened quite a few time...which one would you choose? Based on your experience and PoV....

The bead plate to me and a lot of people I play with are much more important than the big road. The big road is only what's happening as it happens. The bead plate especially with low ties, is an excellent predictor of what's going to happen to the right hand side going out. Which would be every sixth hand after the current hand.

However and a huge disclaimer is that the shoe will only present what it's set up to present and no one can change it and that's what everybody has to realize that's playing this game. But when it's presenting time after time, no matter what predictor or what pattern you are choosing, you have to follow it and not go against it. I hope that makes sense to you.

I do favor the bead plate the majority of the time, especially when it is perfectly repeating itself whatever it is. And yes this particular shoe we did follow the bead plate most of the time.

Baccarat Forum / Re: 2 Great Shoes Last Night!
« on: November 11, 2020, 06:22:23 pm »
How you define the presentments in the first shoe? For each section?


I do not and cannot define the presentments as they are happening and if anyone tells you that they can they are completely exaggerating and just guessing.

As far as the sections I defined them as Section A was extremely weak, Section B was strong, and Section C turned to all ones-twos and threes. I always define sections as15 to 25 hands but on an average of 20 hands each section. I do not guess where the sections are going to turn, I merely mark it up and I follow it to a certain extent.

Yes it is long and yes I decided to bump it up for somebody that emailed me the other day and was making reference to it and wanted it brought back and couldn't find it.

If you don't have time to read it, I don't know why you're reading Forum Boards. Maybe just for one liners, lookng for something that's two sentences long that's going to solve all your problems and give you the road to riches?

>>>PLEASE READ TWICE<<<:  You cannot and will never solve your gambling problems or really find your gambling advantages via technology.  Reason being, you have to have the background in order to deceiver the wrong and the right or actually if finding the right is even possible.  It still and I do believe, will always take Blood, Sweat & Tears with a bunch of Hard Knocks in order to figure it all out.  Machines, the internet, the AI and all those rolled up and taken into consideration, can only assist oneself at best.  A gambler still needs good judgement, no make that, superior judgement!  Otherwise he has nothing to base his decisions on and nothing to measure them against.  And that is where so many argue, internet fight, disagree and get into trouble attempting to do so.

General Discussion / Re: Off Line Server Maintenance Issues
« on: November 01, 2020, 10:41:14 pm »
Looks like the Forum is about back to normal posting even with the older threads that we recently experienced problems with.

If anyone has any problems please post in this thread, thank you.

Dan J.
Assistant to Admin

AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 01, 2020, 10:33:06 pm »
Test post on older thread

Wagering & Intricacies / Test post thread
« on: November 01, 2020, 09:20:33 pm »
Test posting

General Discussion / Re: Off Line Server Maintenance Issues
« on: October 25, 2020, 02:57:05 pm »
Glad it's back....just when I need to re-read some old material....

I hope everything is working with posting and editing, found one problem that has to be fixed.

Let me know if you guys have any posting or searching errors,  thanks.

General Discussion / Off Line Server Maintenance Issues
« on: October 25, 2020, 06:22:31 am »
We had some issues in connecting with the server after we did some upgrades and some changes on our end.

It took a few days and when we went to reconnect we actually didn't know it was not back online until a few people brought it to our attention yesterday. 

We were only seeing the admin side of it. Everything should be back online now.

Looking for some confirmation from anybody and if you're seeing this can you please post a reply so we know that the members are getting back on.  As well if you have any problems you can post them also thanks.

XXVV Studio / Re: The Private Bet
« on: October 12, 2020, 12:36:31 am »
Lesson 12

For your overview here is the ratio of appearances ( a range) for the various set patterns observed which can be played to your advantage. First task is to realize the world in which you are observing. It is a quantum world at certain levels and tricks of time, miracles, and exquisite symmetries can be observed if you have the mind trained to recognize  and accept such. Play can be quite beautiful, especially when understood. Chaotic outcomes may just be appearances not yet understood. I see the string of outcomes flowing from a wheel like a 'fountain' - I like the mystical properties, in the sense of seeing beautiful patterns. When read successfully the player is rewarded. I think it is gracious to accept the balance, joy, and even so far as 'Love' in the continuing gifts that are offered to us. It certainly is not hostile.

The defensive and corrupted ego mind sees threat and trickery in what it does not understand for it fails to see beyond the limits of fear, loss, insecurity and poverty. It is not that I do not lose sometimes. It is how I react that is more important. There is no guilt, shame or punishment if you make mistakes and temporarily fall or fail. Simply get back up again  and re-start. But it is wise to not let the learning process, where we fall and fail most of the time, extend to impact and hurt others. That is why gambling which like so many other activities with powerful emotion and bio chemical signals, can be so addictive. To bang your head against a wall a thousand times making the same string of errors is insanity and goes beyond any reason. We need to learn from mistakes. But shedding guilt and blame is a great help because as you move along the path to greater skill and control, there is less baggage to carry.

Of course I have a working philosophy beyond my roulette game and it took me many years to see that my passion for roulette was actually an honourable vocation as really there is nothing that cannot be worth learning from and growing. It is creative, analytical, profound and fun all at once. The bonus is the money is good.

Linear Clusters about 75-85% of  opportunities.

Cycle Patterns about 5%

Ladder Patterns about 5% but with a very high strike (success rate).

Symmetry Patterns about 10%

The strike rate of Linear Cluster Staking is 90-95%  based on 6 attempts

The strike rate of Recovery Plays is about 90% based on 6-7 attempts  More detail on this later.

Success of a session can be determined also by timing of exit and entry points.

One win ( a coup) can be enough if your goal is clear and the unit value is high.

There have been sessions though where (if I am in the mood) I try to 'win' every spin !   This is not the smartest strategy but comes out of my curiosity, enthusiasm, and energy. Timing of exit and entry (if entry at all) is an Art Form and should be respected.

Like market traders, 'Dollar Cost Averaging' is shrewd and works best in the long term because no professional can pick the all time high and take profit at just that moment. It is wiser to spread the net. That is just reality and adapting to reality. Just so with this game. You need an entry goal and the strength of mind to know when to stop.

That is why playing as a professional and looking to build a monthly profit is a very satisfying game within a game.

I maintain, but there will be some who disagree of course, that my Private Bet has a winning edge demonstrable by flat staking, given optimum choice of settings. The General chooses the battlefield.

I will put a stake in the ground and say +10% edge over the house.

Cluster Theory is beautiful and shatters all the old Newtonian ratios. It digs 'below' the surface.

I must say along with your other posts this one has an extremely stimulating and  thoughtful content to it. I do appreciate the amount of time your putting into the logical thinking, realization as well as the transformation of actual play into your posts! Thanks again.

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