OTBL is no worse or better than any other bet selection. I'm not advocating it. But this is a trip report of sorts.

This is the third week in a row I've walked into shoes where Player was winning by more than five. Tonight I bought in when Player was +12, made it to +17 and ended up +11 by the end of the shoe. First 9 hands were Player, and Player streaked to 9 again! halfway through the shoe.

I could not settle on a 2 step parlay progression but I did find a bet selection for it. All bet selections being equal I have/had decided to wait for a streak of 2 before betting OTBL so I'm not betting for the majority of the shoe. Limits my exposure and gives me time to think in between bets. I ran through some of my bac cards and found I liked the trigger for my bet selection. And even though there were many successful parlay coups, I am partial to a regression to capture profit in a WLWLWLWL situation.

I often play ( at craps ) a 20 15 10 regression and then parlay the third win back to a $20 bet. So I win an extra 1/4 unit for WL and WWL but drop 3/4 of unit for any win streak of 3 or greater.

But tonight I decided on a Lab. Never made a bet bigger than 4u. And I play it very conservatively. A little unorthodox, if I lost a 3u or 4u bet I would sometimes back down 1u or continue with the same size bet. Instead of crossing off two numbers I would just cross off the same size number and lower my bet 1u.

First String

1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3  2 2 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 .. Opened up with several losses, see sawed back and forth a bit. Lost my first 4u bet, didn't like that at all. But kept it together and completed my string as the shoe turned in favor of my BS.

Second String

1 1 1 1 1 1 2 .. Too easy, I didn't like it but made another string and carried on.

Third String

1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 3.. Opened up with a 3u bet and lost it, followed up with a 4u bet and lost it too, back to a 3u bet and lost it also. Like I expected a string of losses following several wins and a row that closed out my second string so fast. Made a 2u bet and parlayed it to a 4u bet [smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley] and then won the rest of my bets to close the string out.

Ended up +20u after 2u in commission and 2u in tips. Certainly did not like winning it so easy, wanted to stay and complete more strings but the shoe looked like this (as accurately as I can remember)

PP
BB
PP
B
P
BBB
P
B
PP
BB
PP

I really didn't expect OTBL to continue so strongly. That pattern closed two strings for me, it was late, and didn't want to hang around for the next shoe or get in the hole if my BS tanked.

I won a couple extra units closing my strings with 2u bets when I had a single 1 left and I made just a handful of deviated bets, like FLD on that second 9 Player streak. I got on at 7P, and an OLD bet or two.

I also dropped 2u on the Tie bet [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley] for the first hand of that shoe. Table was 2u min.

Quote from: HunchBacShrimp on June 13, 2015, 02:33:17 AM
OTBL is no worse or better than any other bet selection. I'm not advocating it. But this is a trip report of sorts.

This is the third week in a row I've walked into shoes where Player was winning by more than five. Tonight I bought in when Player was +12, made it to +17 and ended up +11 by the end of the shoe. First 9 hands were Player, and Player streaked to 9 again! halfway through the shoe.

I could not settle on a 2 step parlay progression but I did find a bet selection for it. All bet selections being equal I have/had decided to wait for a streak of 2 before betting OTBL so I'm not betting for the majority of the shoe. Limits my exposure and gives me time to think in between bets. I ran through some of my bac cards and found I liked the trigger for my bet selection. And even though there were many successful parlay coups, I am partial to a regression to capture profit in a WLWLWLWL situation.

I often play ( at craps ) a 20 15 10 regression and then parlay the third win back to a $20 bet. So I win an extra 1/4 unit for WL and WWL but drop 3/4 of unit for any win streak of 3 or greater.

But tonight I decided on a Lab. Never made a bet bigger than 4u. And I play it very conservatively. A little unorthodox, if I lost a 3u or 4u bet I would sometimes back down 1u or continue with the same size bet. Instead of crossing off two numbers I would just cross off the same size number and lower my bet 1u.

First String

1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3  2 2 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 .. Opened up with several losses, see sawed back and forth a bit. Lost my first 4u bet, didn't like that at all. But kept it together and completed my string as the shoe turned in favor of my BS.

Second String

1 1 1 1 1 1 2 .. Too easy, I didn't like it but made another string and carried on.

Third String

1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 3.. Opened up with a 3u bet and lost it, followed up with a 4u bet and lost it too, back to a 3u bet and lost it also. Like I expected a string of losses following several wins and a row that closed out my second string so fast. Made a 2u bet and parlayed it to a 4u bet [smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley] and then won the rest of my bets to close the string out.

Ended up +20u after 2u in commission and 2u in tips. Certainly did not like winning it so easy, wanted to stay and complete more strings but the shoe looked like this (as accurately as I can remember)

PP
BB
PP
B
P
BBB
P
B
PP
BB
PP

I really didn't expect OTBL to continue so strongly. That pattern closed two strings for me, it was late, and didn't want to hang around for the next shoe or get in the hole if my BS tanked.

I won a couple extra units closing my strings with 2u bets when I had a single 1 left and I made just a handful of deviated bets, like FLD on that second 9 Player streak. I got on at 7P, and an OLD bet or two.

I also dropped 2u on the Tie bet [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley] for the first hand of that shoe. Table was 2u min.

Good job, HBS, and thanks for taking the time to report your play.

Yes, nice when the "twos" are accomodating your OTBL bet selection.  As I've just recently posted in another thread, OTBL play is prime when the "2-hole" is filling consistently....I've often used that play alone to win over a shoe.

OTBL, TBL, OLD, FTL......all very nice when they're conforming to the current results.  It is the player that stubbornly plods full-steam ahead with their mechanical selections even in the face of losing many more bets than winning.....then, it's not so very nice.  The solution:  teaching yourself what to look for in order to ascertain the best times to place their bets.  That is the key to any bet selection process.  Picking your spots when the timing appears right.  (I say "appears" because it's not an exact science, but the experienced, knowledgeable player that chooses their bet selection process based upon certain, shall I say, set criteria, would find themselves winning more bets than they are losing.....or, wait, winning more money on their winning bets than they lose on their losing bets....and there's a term for that: winning.)

Lastly, HBS, while you might call it a labby, you weren't playing it as such.  Rather, it appears, that you were simply writing down your losing bets and crossing off numbers as you went along.  And that's just fine.  Whatever works for you is fine.  But just because you write your numbers into a line, doesn't make it a labby.  A true labby crosses off two numbers with each win, while adding only one number at each loss; the theory being that you can win your line while winning roughly less than half your bets....great in theory, but an absolute horror show as far as long-term money management goes.  So continue to tread lightly there, my friend.

Anyhow, great job, HBS, and I wish you only continued successes.  Stay well.

I'm in agreement about reading the shoe. Or knowing or expecting or anticipating a change. Whatever terminology one wants to use. Past decisions don't influence future decisions is a popular mantra. But there is no reason in not being conservatively realistic. I don't approach it trying to predict what the shoe is going to change to, but more akin to predicting that the shoe won't continue in the direction its going.

So if I'm on a losing streak betting against the shoe, its possible the entire shoe is one giant FLD monster and I'm betting OLD for example but not likely, so I hold my bets steady and wait for some wins before increasing my betting unit size to recover losses. And I approach it the same way if I'm on a strong winning streak. I expect that to come to an end soon followed by an evening out of several losses. So I will stop increasing my betting unit size and hold it steady until the losses come and back off further.

You can't always guess this right, sometimes the losses keep on coming. It is of course of the greatest importance not to be betting big when the wins come, but to be mitigating your losses until the wins show up. And this is what I keep in mind when running a Lab. There isn't a great deal I like about it. If your lucky to catch losses early it resembles a D'alembert. 2 3 4 5 6 7. Up and down one on wins and losses. This can get ugly fast if you walk into some losses midway through your Lab and you smallest digit is a 3. You end up dumping chunks of your BR 13 16 19 22 units and climbing. And this is a precursor to a Bust if your last two digits are 19 and 16 for a 35u bet you lose then 54u and then what? Scrap it and try to recover that one failed Lab with 8 new Labs? or re write your string but increasing your unit size by 5? No, not me. That can't be anything but a bad idea.

But you know all this. It's why I don't always increase my bet. It's why I'll flat bet a bit, and instead of crossing off two smaller numbers I'll remove the larger more dangerous digit. Winning 9u and losing 8u and winning 9u and losing 8u and winning 9u and losing 8u eats up my 1's and leaves me a bunch of higher numbers. I like to protect those 1's. I can lose 4u four times in a row then win 4u lose 3u win 4u lose 3u and still net the same 1u profit for that WLWLWL stretch. And be left with a more manageable string.

In the first string 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3, I did not make a 4u bet but made another 3u bet and won, so I crossed off a 1 and a 2. My string was then 1 1 1 1 1 3. I made another 2u bet and lost 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 another 2u bet loss, 3u bet loss another 3u bet loss and my string is 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 3. Continued with 3u bets and won some, so crossed off some of those threes. Lost that 4u bet trying to close a 3 and 1 together. I know the advantage of a Lab is only needing to win 1/3 of your bets + the length of your string. I have no chance to consistently win more than I lose so I have to take some risks in combining two of those numbers. But I make the choice when.
Like you said, one cannot blindly continue down a losing path.

The second string of 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 only encountered a single loss, the 2u bet. I won the follow up 3u bet crossed of my 2 and a 1 with it and then won 3 more 2u bets consecutively. Which produced an extra unit at the end.

The third string didn't start off nearly as good 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 3.
The first 3u bet was a gamble. With a 2u min table if I won that bet I had no room to regress. I was up units overall and risked it. Walked right into 3 liar. You can see I once again backed off when I lost that 4u bet. After that it was another series of consecutive wins. I won a 3u bet and crossed off the 3. Regressed to a 2u bet, won it, crossed off two 1's, and parlayed that into a 4u bet that I won. Crossed off that 4, regressed to a 2u bet and won consecutively until I closed that string out. I didn't properly cross of that final three according to Lab rules, I over ran it with continuously winning 2u bets. (that I kept waiting to lose)

Like I said it was too easy. I expected the shoe to change, to what I don't know, but I didn't expect it to continue bbppbbppbbppbbpp. So I colored up and went home.

You are correct, it is not a proper Lab. But it isn't me just recording losses and marking them off with wins. I would have to win over half my bets to ever come home with money. I play it tentatively. It's a dangerous system. Usually, I work a regression or a mini series perforated with some parlays.

Thanks for wishing me continued success. I wish you the same. I am very interested in your play. Keep us posted.