Yep, and I suppose I can see his thinking more clearly now behind his P, P, D, P, x (bet for the D where the x is) He claimed it produced a better than 50% win rate in his long term tests. The only problem was the lack of betting opportunities. Sometimes only a few per hour.

I made a mistake, the theoretical average should be 15, not 30 per 15K results.
However, 4 streaks of 10 is not even one third of 15!

My explanation lies on the elements of each game, the wheel has 37 or 38 pockets, while the 2 dice have 6 sides each, a total of 12 sides.
The 12  is not even one third of 37 or 38...

Quote from: Bally6354 on August 31, 2016, 05:29:34 PM
Yep, and I suppose I can see his thinking more clearly now behind his P, P, D, P, x (bet for the D where the x is) He claimed it produced a better than 50% win rate in his long term tests. The only problem was the lack of betting opportunities. Sometimes only a few per hour.

Bally,
Would it be possible for you to reveal the name of this author and which book it is?

If you don't want to reveal the above information, it's okay -- I understand.

Hello Doctor Sudoku,

Sure, it's Greiner's ''The Future Gambler''. He has a couple of chapters dedicated to Craps. One is basic and the other is pretty advanced. When I get some spare time, I will start a thread called 'Greiner on Craps'. That game was his forte and the advanced Craps chapter in his book titled ''symmetrical patterns from asymmetrical relationships'' is a good read.

cheers

 Just thinking about what I have talked about recently regarding craps not having a streaky nature made me go back and look in Greiner's book to find out what progression he came up with for a game more choppy than streaky. He wrote this about his 'bricklayer' MM.

'The Bricklayer is particularly good at converting choppy or zig-zag results (which would otherwise be nothing more than a bag of trash) into sizable profits without sizable risk. It's also nice to know that the Bricklayer will profit in streaky environments too.'

Sounds good to me.    So I will go and re-read his Bricklayer MM and make that the next post in my blog.

cheers

I might as well just post here so nobody has to go looking for it.

[attachimg=1]


[attachimg=2]


Play around with it and see what you think.

cheers

It may help if I show a few games. One winning and one losing.

Game 1)   winning game.

+2, -2a, -2b, +4c, -2b, +4c, +2a, -3a, +3b, +3a, -3a, +6b, +4a,  end of game.

Game 2)  losing game.

+2, -2a, -2b, +4c, -2b, -4c,  end of game.

See if you can follow along with the results above looking at the chart.


cheers

I don't know what made me think of it, but I decided to run the VDW AP with the Bricklayer's Wall using the first few spins from today.

Here it is....

[attachimg=1]

They could be a good match up.

cheers

Quote from: Bally6354 on September 02, 2016, 09:37:09 AM
Hello Doctor Sudoku,

Sure, it's Greiner's ''The Future Gambler''. He has a couple of chapters dedicated to Craps. One is basic and the other is pretty advanced. When I get some spare time, I will start a thread called 'Greiner on Craps'. That game was his forte and the advanced Craps chapter in his book titled ''symmetrical patterns from asymmetrical relationships'' is a good read.

cheers

Bally,
Thanks for these excerpts. That book is pretty much impossible to find (at least at a reasonable price). So your excerpts are most welcome.

By the way, it is good to see someone outside the US interested in craps. It is a great game, but the complicated layout and the myriad of available bets make it less appealing elsewhere.

Doctor Sudoku,

The men in suits have tried their hardest to introduce Craps to the UK several times over the last 5-10 years.....but unfortunately it just never got going. I don't know why really. You could say that Craps is a true gambling game where you get some kind of interaction handling the dice and mostly all hoping for the shooter to make a pass. I will definitely be giving it a shot next time I am down in London.

There are about 7/8 different progressions that Greiner came up with in the book. I will make an effort to put them all up because they are all different.

cheers

In USA, Craps has 1.4% house advantage and Roulette has 5.3% HA. In London roulette has 1.3% HA and you can play sitting down. It makes sense that in USA, Craps is popular and in London, roulette is popular.

Just went through the 72 hours at the craps table looking for different angles.

If you wait for PASS, PASS and then bet the DON'T....  = +24 over the 15k rolls. (I didn't include any 12's rolled where you wouldn't get paid)

The thing I wanted to discover is the longest losing series of 3+ PASS's. So that would be 1)PASS, PASS, PASS,......2)PASS, PASS, PASS etc..

I got one run of 8 as the longest.

When I get some time, I will break it all down into the runs of losses.

cheers

Quote from: Bally6354 on September 07, 2016, 02:03:08 PM
Just went through the 72 hours at the craps table looking for different angles.

If you wait for PASS, PASS and then bet the DON'T....  = +24 over the 15k rolls. (I didn't include any 12's rolled where you wouldn't get paid)

The thing I wanted to discover is the longest losing series of 3+ PASS's. So that would be 1)PASS, PASS, PASS,......2)PASS, PASS, PASS etc..

I got one run of 8 as the longest.

When I get some time, I will break it all down into the runs of losses.

cheers

Hi Bally,

Craps will do your head in.

My old man was a local legend at craps. Had it all figured out and played the game as good as any before him. Fully syndicated partners buying in and all that.

Went on for years and cost him dearly.

Because he was so good at it and played it so long, I could estimate a figure of $1,000,000 in losses for my share of his inheritance, and I have 2 siblings.

Thanks for the tip Greenguy.... Your Dad sounds like he was a larger than life character.

At least with all this study, I will understand what's going on the next time I at a Craps table. 

cheers

So here is the breakdown for the runs of losses consisting of a minimum of 3 passes...(PASS, PASS, PASS) From 15k rolls.

1) 62
2) 28
3) 17
4) 5
5) 3
6) 3
7) 2
8> 1

cheers