So here, I am going to share some of my approaches to Baccarat, things that hopefully are a bit new to anybody reading and so maybe that can help with your own game.

One thing I always believed throughout the years of studying the E.C. game was that someone needed a kind of framework to help them navigate their way through the decisions as they came out. It's not so much a prediction tool as just something to look at which can show you what's currently happening. Let's face it, whatever is currently happening or not happening for that matter is either going to continue along in that fashion or come to an end.

Based on my own understanding, I see the shoe is going to do one of three things for the most part. It's going to streak, chop or show the 2's. Now any of these that go on a prolonged run can be fairly straightforward to read and therefore profit from. When they are all appearing one after the other in a very haphazard way, well that's another story and I will come to that later but for now, I will just try and stick to something easy to read when it's happening.

I break the Bac results down into 4 numbers using pairs.

BB = 1
BP = 2
PP = 3
PB = 4

So here is a bit of a registry to show what I mean.

B
B 1
B 1
P 2
P 3
P 3
P 3
B 4
P 2
B 4
P 2
P 3
B 4
B 1
P 2
P 3
B 4
B 1
B 1
B 1
B 1

By doing it like this, I have learned to spot what's happening, be it runs, chops or the 2's.

If you get a continuous run of 1's, then it's showing B

If you get a continuous run of 3's, then it's showing P

If you get a continuous run of 2,4 or 4,2 then it's showing chops.

Finally, if you get a continuous run of 1,2,3,4, then it's running the 2's.

Let's have a look at that registry again.


B
B 1
B 1 (a small run of B)
P 2
P 3
P 3
P 3 (a small run of P)
B 4
P 2
B 4
P 2 (a small run of chops)
P 3
B 4
B 1
P 2
P 3
B 4
B 1 (a run of the 2's)
B 1
B 1
B 1 (a small run of B)

So that just gives you an idea of the notation that I am using.

I remember reading in several places over the years that the 2's just creep up on you and after testing a load of systems, a lot of them didn't seem to be able to handle the 2's. Now looking above you can see how easy they are to read. In fact, quite often, you will get the 2's dominating although you will see something else interspersed with them.

So it might go something like the following...

B
B 1
P 2 (2's)
P 3 (2's)
P 3 (single)
B 4 (back to 2's)
B 1 (2's)
P 2 (2's)
P 3 (2's)
B 4 (2's)
P 2 (single)
P 3 (back to 2's)

Hopefully you get the idea. That can actually be a real strong run and it's not unusual to see 20-30 hand runs where it performs like this and even just a simple 1-2 neg progression can capture a lot of units this way. I only mention this because a lot of people don't seem to like the 2's but really, there is nothing to fear from them.

So I think that's a good place for me to begin from and I use this framework as my basic template and pretty much everything else then revolves around this.

cheers

Thanks for sharing your notation & ways Allan!

WELCOME BACK!

Vic

Welcome back!!

as.

Very interesting.

Thanks.

AD

Thanks guys!

Before I go onto something else, I just want to say one more thing in relation to the 2's and why I think they have to be an important consideration when coming up with some kind of strategy, be that Bac, Roulette or Craps.

There is a mathematical concept known as the 'waiting times' I don't really think it's all that well known to be honest.

It goes like this...

The average waiting times for any of the following groups BBP, BPP, PPB and PBB are 8.

The average waiting times for any of the following groups BPB and PBP are 10.

The average waiting times for any of the following groups BBB and PPP are 14.

What's interesting (to me at least) is when you take a look at a registry and see how these numbers of 8, 10 and 14 are performing.

So if you get some 2's coming out using my framework from above....

B
B 1
P 2  BBP
P 3  BPP
B 4  PPB
B 1  PBB

You can see how that shortest waiting time of 8 is also coming out as 2's and so is it any surprise that I am seeing some nice long runs of the 2's even if they are interspersed with the odd single sometimes.

Let's have a look at some chops...

B
P 2
B 4 BPB
P 2 PBP
B 4 BPB
P 2 PBP

Here is the middle waiting time of 10 for the BPB or PBP.

Finally some runs/streaks...

B
B 1
B 1 BBB
B 1 BBB
B 1 BBB
B 1 BBB
P 2
P 3
P 3 PPP
P 3 PPP
P 3 PPP

Here is the longest waiting time of 14 for the BBB or PPP.

What's kind of strange to me although I am no mathematician is that we know that the 1's = 50%, the 2's = 25% and the 3's = 12.5% and so I would have thought the chops would have had the lowest waiting time and not the 2's. (I will need to ask the AI about that one!)

Anyway, my basic point here is that we can't afford to ignore the 2's and they have to be an integral part of any strategy because of the very fact that they have the lowest waiting time which should really equate to us seeing plenty of action from them. That's not to say that we are not going to see any streaky shoes because of course we do but what I referred to years ago as the 'bag of trash' shoes are more prevalent and they take a bit more working around to stay on top of them.

That will lead me on to my next post where I am going to look at parlays and why they can be quite elusive unless you are selective when looking for them.

cheers

Hi Bally!

Below are just personal thoughts.

The waiting time is one of the most important concept to implement in every bac strategy, KFB knows very well this EC feature.

About doubles we know that 2s are the most probable pattern happening at baccarat, but long term quantities are strongly affected by a "quality" factor.
In a word, doubles are predominant as an overalternating mood is slight less likely to happen and, of course, long consecutive streaks at baccarat are relatively uncommon unless several "incidents" happen along the course of every shoe dealt.

Simplyfing, it's the clustering effect that matters.

as.

Hi Bally6354. A very excellent thread.

I like your data recording format. IMO it is crucial for us to record the results in a clear manner. One needs to  quickly discern what is happening at a glance.

re: 2iar(in-a-rows). I've always viewed them as "terrific twos". In part, because they are a pattern we can quickly see. Plus as AsymBacGuy has written, they can often be the slightly-longer identifiable pattern vs other commonly identified patterns.

A secondary benefit of the terrific-twos patterns: They are a trigger for another bet placement that often presents shortly after the 2iars end(Though somewhat dependent on how far into the shoe and the patterns that have shown prior to the 2x2s). In other words as we see a lengthy 2x2 pattern present one should ask: What might happen next. I like to get into anticipatory mode as I await.


Thx for taking the time for a well thought out thread. Good comments everyone.


Continued Success To All,