You know we talk a lot about winning and sometimes about losing sessions. And most of the detailed talk is about the scoreboard roads, I wagered because of too many or not enough of this or that and of course, the armchair quarterbacking successes.  But have you ever really sat down and gave thought to your decision making process and what drove you to wager on whatever it was you did?

I believe a huge advantage to the Baccarat Player is, the ability to know what is really happening at the table and the interpretation of it.

I have found taking the uncertainty out of the picture is truly the key. It is not easy by any means, but you have to. Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening at the moment (the presentments) and all of the other automatic tendencies to interpret and wager upon your experiences, memories and wagering plan(s) attacks.

We tend to wager on what I would define as, expecting certain results. I do believe those are brought about by our inner subconscious and previous experiences with what is actually occurring. And I wholeheartedly believe that is where and why we go wrong on many wagers.

We read and discuss so much about stop losses and limiting Wagers. But is that going to allow us to win? Maybe to stop losses, but not to win. All the brew-haha aside, a person has to wager to win.  PERIOD.  By stopping the wagering, a person has no chance to win.  Winning and losing is derived from your wagering and your wagering will be determined by your decision making process.

If you become committed to a particular interpretation of presentments, it will become a habit and a situation that you repeat in similar or related circumstances that will drag you under with beliefs that the shoe has to produce what you desire. You will never win in the game Baccarat if you wager with that commitment.

With that said, if you commit yourself to certain wagering triggers and points, you have made a decision to selectively gather the data of the shoe just produced and believe your interpretation of such that the shoe will go your way when you wager is going to place you in winning considerably less than 50% of your wagers.  Unless you can parlay at the correct times the less than 50% of the wins, you will consistently lose at the game.  On the other hand if you do not commit yourself to any certain wagering triggers and points, you have made a decision to screen for evidence (presentments) to support your wagering attempt(s) with what is actually occurring and not being clouded by the strong emotions of the losses that you have made that you seek to correct. Or if you didn't make any losses yet or they are trivial, you will not cloud your emotions to start winning or continue winning. 

There are both -EV and +EV at the table in all shoes. Although the shoe will produce what it is set to do with no way to know any outcome of it whatsoever. PERIOD.  There is no way to change that. There never has been and there never will be you have to remember that.  To me and it should be to you IMO, the game will be -EV when you lose and +EV when you win.  Forget the casino's hold on the game.  Say you sat down and bought in for $3,000.00.  You wagered $500.00 on bankers and it won.  You parlayed the win and won again with a second bankers.  You parlayed again decided to let the $2,000.00 ride on bankers and at that point you decided the wager will continue on bankers and every winning wager will come down to the rail and be locked up.  You did that to recoup your initial risk capital of $3,000.00 (even thou not lost) and hopefully some profit.  A bankers 7-iar mini streak occurred and you put the $10,000.00 into your pocket to recoup the buy-in and the profit.  You lost the last hand when it cut to players.  That just made the game of Baccarat for +EV for you.  Hence a concrete Money Management Method came into play.  You didn't fall prey to the casino's psychology of installing scoreboards to assist the gamblers and all of that brew-haha, etc.  You wagered for what was happening.  PLEASE NOTE:  THAT DOES NOT MEAN STREAKS ONLY AS SO MANY THINK.  IT MEANS ANYTHING.  And if you lost that first wager of $500.00, that just made the game of Baccarat -EV for you and well, you try again for whatever you feel, because your buy-in is risk capital. 

So in the scenario I gave you above, I would have kept the $6,500.00 profit because I would have gave my initial buy-in back the $500.00 and put that $3,000.00 back in my pocket.  Then I would have played the $3,000.00 (buy-in) risk free on my winnings. Which would be a lot less stress and frustration if I began to lose or even lost that $3,000.00 (my initial out-of-pocket funds). 

I truly believe, found and discovered with factual long time experience, the highest majority of all baccarat players do expect certain outcomes of each shoe. And in my opinion, that is where most of us go wrong.

Think about your decision making process and give yourself a true advantage that will allow you to win easier.

You wrote:

We tend to wager on what I would define as, expecting certain results. I do believe those are brought about by our inner subconscious and previous experiences with what is actually occurring. And I wholeheartedly believe that is where and why we go wrong on many wagers.

Probably this is one of the best advice any baccarat player in the world should implement in his/her arsenal.

as. 

 

"...I have found taking the uncertainty out of the picture is truly the key. It is not easy by any means, but you have to. Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening at the moment (the presentments) and all of the other automatic tendencies to interpret and wager upon your experiences, memories and wagering plan(s) attacks..."

I agree with most of your fine post. Some I may differ with a little. I agree limiting the uncertainty is extremely important. Even if we can't eliminate it we can do small things to lessen or lower said uncertainty.

My belief is that we can apply the math of the game(Probability scales) yet stay in tune on "what this specific shoe is producing". Some times the shoe may initially present as skewed but will generally start settling in to the laws of probability expectations(or at least start approaching limits). Though sometimes the race is cut short and the runners run out of distance. So we may not get to see the comeback from the late-charging runners.

By math of the game I mean: We should constantly be thinking and looking for opportunities to apply probability games with the casino where we are the casino. For example, what is the probability of seeing X and Y, and X or Y, prior to seeing Z, ...etc. I find opportunities are easier to see by looking for events where limits are being approached that we know are very rare or seldom reached (in most shoes).

Yes we will see some shoes that defy math theorems and are what I call "weird" shoes. This is where  money management is paramount. That is, we should have a cut off so we only miss a certain number of wagers (mine is typically two or three), and I stop pursuing that event. Yet I never limit the upside when I am in sync with the results(selecting consecutive winners). This is what I perceive keeps me off extended losing streaks on one single event.

"...Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage..."


Emotional chaos and lack of emotional control is the "achilles' heel" for many players.


Continued Success,