+ Register

[AsymBacGuy]

Taken from a BP point of view, baccarat is a beatable game by any means because it's an asymmetrical game. Meaning that itlr something is going to happen more often than not.
Not everytime, never by a steady state. But we know it will.

Two main mathematical conditions will affect the long term outcomes:

1) the asymmetrical factor favoring the B side, mostly when it collects a 4 or 5 two card point;

2) the very slight propensity to get the opposite of the last result, this due to a finite card composition interacting with the bac rules.

Both are two undeniable aspects of the game and I'll challenge any expert of the world to prove otherwise.

Then there is the finite card composition that in some way will limit the random world (mostly because there's no enough room to get a balancement of previous events).

We also know that per every bet wagered we have to overcome a 1.06%/1.24% negative edge but we shouldn't care less as some people have found methods to get en edge at roulette having a 2.70% or 5.26% negative edge.

Of course any random game, no matter how much is asymmetrical, will produce fluctuations statistically known as standard deviation.
In a word, we cannot control or getting the best of it from a random game betting every hand, it's literally impossible even for untaxed situations.

The real holy grail is trying to devise a method capable to win by flat betting. This means to be able to erase the house tax first, then to be able to get more winning situations than losing ones.
Meaning we can control the outcomes.
It could be done but only after very long trackings and after some unexpected situations had occurred.
An astounding method capable to get an almost perfect balancement between two opposite events is good either, because the use of a simple progression will get a good control of the outcomes.   

Disregarding the FB possibility, we should rely upon more likely situations capable to get very low sd values.

After long years of studying and testing baccarat, I devised three principal triggers and a so called systematic plan of action that has nothing to share with the aforementioned triggers.

Here I'll mention the three triggers.

A) The distribution of Banker streaks (that is when a B is followed by another B without regard about the streak's lenght)

B) The distribution of Banker doubles.

C) The distribution of Player 3+ streaks vs counterparts.

Someone will be surprised that in my list I haven't included P singles and P doubles and there's a reason for that I don't want to elaborate.

A) Itlr Banker streaks are more prevalent than B singles counterpart but we all know that many shoes will produce many B singles. So we have to limit the B singles impact in some way. And it's statistics which will give us some help.
Any shoe is a finite and dependent production, so more often than not a strong deviated situation in either way will be NOT compensated by the remaining of the shoe.
The question is: how I'll know that a more likely event will be really more likely or somewhat silent? To answer the question we'll have to devise a method capable to get rid of the unfavorite outcomes (B singles) and trying to get the best of the expected situations (B streaks).
More importantly, we should know the B streaks/B singles ratio knowing the finite nature of the deck and acting accordingly.   

B) Banker doubles are a wonder. They are forced into a struggle between forming a more likely longer streak and the propensity to get the opposite of the last result, that is a B double.
The answer should be quite easy. From one part we have a mathematical diluted edge to get a longer streak and from the other one we have a statistical long term finding. We'd better wait to get a B double and see what happens next.     

C) Player 3+ streaks (a P streak of any 3 lenght or longer) are both the easiest and safest way to approach a method and also the most dangerous ones.
We shouldn't forget that most of the time (91.4%) the BP outcomes are perfectly symmetrical, so without the asymmetrical factor acting in some way (and we should know the previous actual result of such asymmetrical hands) BBB+ is perfectly probable than PPP+, so transforming the game into a perfect unbeatable situation.
Nonetheless, any P 3+ streak and any distribution related to that itlr will have to overcome TWO CONVERGENT opposite factors favoring the production of different outcomes: the asymmetricity and the slight propensity to get the opposite of the last result.

No news, right? Banker is still the best bet or, better sayed, the less negative bet.
This is true most of the times but not always true, as wagering toward the B singles apparition in some circumstances will provide many favourable spots to bet into. Especially knowing the finite card composition of any deck.

You can bet whatever you get that at baccarat there are no other more controllable situations than the three depicted above.

B streaks, B doubles and P 3+ streaks distributions are by far the best triggers to set up a strategy on because without any doubt they are particularly balanced in their appareance and distribution.

as.
 

[AsymBacGuy]

Btw, you noticed that I always consider each side separately, imo the best way to try to control the baccarat random world.

as.

[alrelax]

As,  A lot of this is subjective.  At times, in fact--all times, the single word is best to remember, 'MIGHT' as you said within another piece.  #1 Problem is, all of what you mention will happen.  However, it will also, not happen. 

IMO, the largest error the highest majority make in this game, including me, including you, including the reader studying all this and those that never come on the board, etc., will be that, their mind convinces their trend of thought that 'so and so will happen'.  My best nights now happen when I clear my mind of all info and stats, etc., and focus-concentrate and play what the shoe is producing.  And, that doesn't matter if it is chops, streaks, 1-2's-3's, etc.  I am not predicting, I am playing and riding the shoe.  I rather lose the last one of the cluster than not catch a single one during the cluster.  Hopefully you guys understand what I just said. 

The entire trick or key to a more successful game is being able to put the clusters, the pieces, the happenings, etc., together and predict what will prevail based on what is happening with the current shoe (not past or history or stats) and couple that with an expected continuance before the regression to the mean develops within the shoe.

The above paragraph is well thought out--some will slam me and call it dribble.  However, the meaning to the above paragraph is, something will happen, something is happening and that happening will or will not continue for a period of hands.  At times it is very easy to figure out and at other times, extremely difficult. When you figure it out you have to ride it and stick with it, forgo and forget all the past shoes, events and stats.  The current instant shoe does not rely on anything or anybody or any superstition.  Most of us add some sprinkles for fun, take the edge off, slow the game or allow us to realize something sizable and then leave a winner. 

There are tons of similarities and for every one that is similar there is an opposite one awaiting arrival in an upcoming hand. 

I have witnessed just as many opposite side doubles or streaks to offset any commonplace similarity regarding when a double or a streak is or is not a trigger.

As far as Banker being the dominant one or as you say 'the less negative one', you are correct but that too will be varied and not a given.  One the other hand, I have sat at numerous tables and witnessed Player dominated shoes outnumbering the Banker in the end with 15+ Player wins.  The story does not end........it will continue.....................

There is a closing note here.  The big table baccarat where the shoe travelled from player to player with the 3 dealers, etc.  That game was pulled from almost all casinos and only the larger ones have it these days.  Why?  Because when it was played as normal, everyone trying the majority of the times for the Banker, the house lost money.  The game really didn't pick up speed until the introduction of the Midi/Macau style tables and the players with the 'cut' wagering mentality.  They are their worst enemies.

I have witnessed a far less player capitalization on the game since the early 2000's.  The typical player has one wagering style and one only.  Play for the cut.  They lose out on the highest majority of the streaks/runs and then they can't even capitalize on the chop/alternating weak shoe as they are then wagering for the repeating/streak (cut). 

[AsymBacGuy]

As,  A lot of this is subjective. 

Hi Al, probably I badly expressed the core of my method.

There's nothing subjective in my strategy. I'm not guessing anything or hoping for something.

It's a strict mechanical method based on the above three objective occurences and based upon very long statistical findings.

Obviously it takes some time to discover the triggers. And a lot of patience.

I'm not betting toward or against banker streaks or banker doubles or using an anti- P triples strategy.
I just want to get a fair amount of expected hands in selected spots without a large variance impact because statistics suggested this.
That's why a large percentage of any shoe is totally ininfluent for me (think about 2+ B streaks, P streaks longer than 3, singles and so on)

Anyway your comments are always interesting and very welcome.

as.   

[alrelax]

You mis understood what I tried to express, I think.

We really need to meet and talk, LOL..........................

If nothing else, at least about Trump and his plan to wipe the UK out.  I can't believe I said that.

[AsymBacGuy]

We really need to meet and talk, LOL..........................

Sure Al!!
You pick up the restaurant! 

as.

[alrelax]

Hell, according to our bloody chap member in the UK, I got about 10 Millions dollars of comp coming, certainly we could get some crackers and cheese for that, maybe even a beer to wash that down!

[alrelax]

The best thing about bac is, 'if you can control yourself', you don't have to bet to stay in the game.......................

What so many fail to understand and see bac as, is this-----it is like a female that will be always be honest and pure to you even when you are not within viewing and witnessing range...............................the mess ups are your fault, your decisions, your doings...... just almost all people find other things/people to blame all their downfalls on......

[AsymBacGuy]

The best thing about bac is, 'if you can control yourself', you don't have to bet to stay in the game.......................

+1

as.

[alrelax]

The one person I still am looking forward to meeting and playing Bac with is Asym. 

We need to make this happen! 

[AsymBacGuy]

Thanks Al, the same from my part (along with a couple of hs players I'm used to play with).

It would be a great idea to meet us with Sputnik and Lungyeh too, providing they want to make a visit in US.

as.

[Lungyeh]

QUE SERA SERA BROTHERS!

[alrelax]

This spring time or summer time I will go as far as to say I can devote one week and I think we should meet in Las Vegas and I'll book the shows and some restaurants and if I can't get a comp for them I will pay for them.

One thing I always do every time I go to Vegas is go to, www.Sunbuggy.Com.

We should set up a week of scheduling and yes I'm posting some pictures.  Let's do this it's time.

[Lungyeh]

Terry Fator is a must see show

[alrelax]

Yes Lung, Terry Fator is still at The Mirage as far as I know, he has his own theater in the rear of the place.  Also, IMO, the Beatles LOVE show is among the tops of the tops, seen it twice, last time was Asian New Year Week in Feb of 2017 I believe.  The LOVE show has the main theater at The Mirage. 

On a side note, The Mirage was one of the greatest Bac rooms there IMO.  In the rear of the casino they had the Bac room set up with about 15 tables or so up front, the 2 large full 14 seat player/3 dealer tables (old school style where the players were able to hold the shoe and deal the card or choose Macau/Midi style) all the private rooms, the small cashier's counter only for the bac room which was fantastic and easy for everything to transact, etc., then in the back the restrooms, lounges and the hot food snack room, etc.  But I do know they were going to merge that with the regular high-limit room and the larger slot high limit which was right next to it as you were facing the rear--towards the right side. 

I played for years at The Mirage, usually staying at The Bellagio or across at Planet Hollywood and even before it was PH, when it was Aladdin Casino.  PH is Caesar's, so staying at one property and putting time in at any other property could be a problem, although some hosts did not love that, but if you had an old school host and was there a while under his role call, never a problem.  We used to like PH because of the attached 300 store plus all the countless restaurants within the attached shopping mall to the rear of the property.  Their bac action at PH was not the best, only a few tables.  But it is not part of the MGM brand, so it was all good.