Ties are a weird animal. I have seen many regualr players I play with at the tables, repeatedly hit them like clockwork. I really have never been a heavy tie player by any means. At times, might give it shot, more so---when there are 0-2 or 0-3 ties after a good 25-40 hands or so.
As we all know, a good mean average for ties is at the 7 to 12 mark, but like F-7's, runs of 6 or more, long sections of chop or doubles, etc., they might not come or they might very well exceed the expectation or averages.
With that said, I found the tie wager to be the most frustrating thing in bac, than anything else. I strictly limit my exposure to it, if there is an extremely low tie count like I said and I am doing well with win rate, at the same I might give it a shot.
If I am understanding what you are saying in your post, I can't quite agree on the number of cards drawn in the hands theory. I do agree on the low to no ties after a decent amount of hands without, yes. As far as the number of cards drawn, I think it averages out with 4 card ties, 5 card ties or 6 card ties. Maybe not for the shoes within a session, but that goes for anything else as well, naturals cutting to the other side, or every natural resulting in a side wager prevailing after, or a strong section of 1's and 2's followed by a great streak, etc. Meaning, it 'did it' that shoe and the player expects the up coming presentments to follow, etc.
My real problem with the tie wager, is the 'few' units you get back as compared to the other side wagers ranging from 25 to 1 up to 200 to 1. Whereas, if you narrow it down and play the side wagers for a limited amount of time and do hit one or two of them, the return is pretty good. As compared to the tie wager of 8 to 1 or 9 for 1, unless you are at the new Bad Beat tables then the 6/6 or 7/7 or any 6/6--7/7 ties will pay either 20 or 40 to 1. However, the 8 to 1, doesn't leave much of a profit unless you hit it real quick, etc. Usually most players will end up giving it back or barely recouping what they already won off of other wagers, etc