A mathematical approach to gambling


[mod] This site link contains a support advert. http://www.bettingknowhow.com Please be aware when you are clicking through. Cheers Chrisbis [/mod]

[smiley]welcome/welcome(6).gif[/smiley] to the forum Dragoner.

Interesting site you have there!

Very informative.

Welcome to the forum.

Nice site, by the way. 

You probably are.
If you elaborate on your problem, I could help you figure out what.

Quote from: Archie on August 10, 2013, 03:09:09 AM
Am I missing something here?  Lol.


A real mathematician who writes odds in terms of single numbers; and says, "Of course you could always play in fun mode, but I suppose it is more exciting playing with real money."  (And BTW, go to this casino here.)

So what?  Why shouldn't he write that?

You probably think he's an affiliate for BF. So what if he is? 

The readers make their OWN decisions as to whether or not they follow up the link for BF.

It's not as if the site is loaded with wall-to-wall affiliate links for just about every casino in existence, which seems to be standard practice amongst the scam sites.

Like I said -- nice site, Dragoner.

Thank you esoito!


Just to be clear... Yes, I am indeed an affiliate for BF.
My site is not a charity site but I do provide free information on it to the best of my knowledge. Take roulette for example. If I were to just lure people to casinos, I could have written something like: "Mathematically proven roulette system", like most of the casino affiliates and system sellers out there. Instead I went with the honest route, which I think adds to the value of my website.

Dragoner,
            I really appreciate the way you are promoting your site.

I concur. Nice work, Dragoner. This forum needs more posters like you! 

Thanks everyone for the kind words.

Welcome Dragoner! It is fine, that you are focusing on MARTINGALE on your site. Numerous beginners are fascinated by this deadly progression
The rules favour players on Even Chances by the European roulette here in Europe. At least this is the case in the casinos, I use to visit: When ZERO comes, we are losing only half of the amount on Black, red, even, odd, high or low. So  in theory we should expect to lose not 2.7%  but only half as much right there.
Contrary to Martigale we might play PAROLI (a positive progression) and double our bet after winning. Time is still important, however, and we´ll never know when the series of winning ends.  But I tried practising paroli on two groups at the same time  . The two groups should be seen as one; and paroli should be used  only after winning both places at the same time.  The danger of losing both bets are less than losing only one.  So in most cases we´ll come from a paroli session without losing all. Knowing this is less stressfull than guessing when to stop, I suppose.
THE EXACT PROBABILITIES, DRAGONER? They are harder to find, that one should think. It is due to a small UNEVEN distribution inside the even chances:
Ten of the 18 red numbers are ODD, and eight red numbers are EVEN.
Similarly, only eight  black numbers are odd. Ten black numbers are even.
The chances of coming from a paroli session without losing all depends on the combination you chose!
                                                                           Dane

Hi Dane,


If you get back half of your bet in case 0 comes up, then we can calculate the EV as:
EV=18/37*1-18/37*1-1/37*0,5=-1/37*0,5=-1/74
(18 numbers win, 18 lose, and 1 loses half)
So yes, as you mentioned, you only lose half as much.


As for the Paroli progression probabilities:
We always have 37 numbers, and we can divide them up for all the possible outcomes. If you go with red and odd,
like you said 10 numbers win (red and odd)
10 number loses (black and even)
1 number loses half (zero)
For the rest of the 16 we break even, as 1 bet wins the other loses.
So the probabilities of 1 round:
Win:10/37
Lose: 10/37
Lose half: 1/37
No change in bankroll: 16/37
The probabilities are the same if you go with black and even.
If you go with black and odd or red and even, then 8 numbers win, 8 lose, 1 loses half and 20 break even.
Probabilities for that:
Win: 8/37
Lose: 8/37
Lose half: 1/37
No change in bankroll: 20/37


These probabilities can be then used to go into more levels.

Thanks for your reply!

The more levels we go into (the higher we go), the more exciting....[smiley]aes/smile.png[/smiley]
                                                          Dane

Hi Dragoner ---  EV has been used in poker for years multi player pots being an example of where the maths boys will use EV to target these pots but how does it help us in roulette ? It's just our money versus the games payouts,as you have stated a negative EV. Re. The Betfair example from your site surely it is only 0 EV on the outside bets , the inside bets still attract a lesser payout than the appropriate odds of hitting so therefore is still a negative EV ?


Anyways interesting stuff all the same, nice site and welcome to the forum.


Cheers.

It is a great site for the mathematically inclined.  Thanks for sharing and welcome to the Forum. 

The maths are correct provided the casino dealers/staff do not skew the results.