We see often methods which use progressions on EC:s, and it looks like many underestimate the chances for a longer run of the same.
How many times have we not seen somebody count a run of seven as very unlikely. An some think a wheel is rigged because  it has been a run of 9 or more.


I have checked  beside my other play, how often we can expect a longer run in 200 spins. The result is it is very rare to not see a run of
at least 5 in 200 spins, and it is more likely it is  6-9.


On a zero wheel a single zero can chop a run, and if we play against the run or not it is  a problem. We should if possible play EC on NOZero.


Knowing we can expect about  7 in a run in 200 spins It should be possible to make some use of that knowledge. Seven run can a Martingale easy fix, but nothing says it can't be several more, and then the loss is as it use to be when a negative progression bust, the bankroll is wiped out.


I have done quite a lot of playing the last days, checking out how to use the runs, and I have done it many times before.
It will be some who might not agree, but exploring the runs should be using positive progressions. At to the maximum, we should reverse the Martingale.   If we double on win we will lose a chip every  trial, and win nothing at all.


We have to set a number of times we will double on a win, to have any chance to get a profit.  As we know we are on 50% chance every spin on a NoZero, we only fight the variance, No HE, but a tax on the winnings.


There is a fair chance to get a run of 7 in about 200 spins.  I started On BVNZ using 0.1  and , 40 Euro at risk.


Then we follow the last, and double up after a win, starting with reset after four winnings, and pocket the winnings. If the play went so choppy  we  could not recover using four winnings, it is to increase the times we try.  We know it does not matter how many times we double, it is just a matter of time before they show, and seven is not very unlikely in about 200 spins.


We in a way change the role of the bank, the bank plays for one chip, the player going for more, the opposite as Martingale played double on loss, the the player risk much for a single chip.


I did this in fun mode, but the casino is not displaying my fun mode history since a few days, this happen now and then.

it is around 95% likely to have a run between 5-11 in 200 spins.


From my experience parlay is very effective..

Quote from: Ralph on February 17, 2013, 01:52:34 PM

Knowing we can expect about  7 in a run in 200 spins It should be possible to make some use of that knowledge. Seven run can a Martingale easy fix, but nothing says it can't be several more, and then the loss is as it use to be when a negative progression bust, the bankroll is wiped out.

In fact it is more likely to be more than less. The distribution of the longest run is a logarithmic histogram.
It is interesting and yet this thread seems to old only a few views.
Cheers

If not seven, it can be less or more. I just run 234 spins, got six two times at most. Got a plus of 44 units. On a NOZ wheel the chances are very good to make some chips. The bankroll will not be eaten fast, so there is time to wait out the runs.


I think it may be hard for some to put 32 units on the table after a run of five blacks "the red is due". It is a large number of players who swear it is a lesser chance to get 6 runs after seen 5, and a loss at 32 will not "lock in the winnings". There are system sold out there telling "Wait for six runs, and then martingale the opposite", and many more than we can  image use it. On a local forum here this is discussed all the time, invented of many every day.


The negative progressions makes the winnings more often, but can not take more than one run against us. A loss at 32 chips put us down just one from start using positive. 


The strength using positive is not it will give more winning spins, it is the effect on the bankroll, it will at least last longer.





I use to try four, and if I am down a bit I go for five or six. If I break at 5, and it continue I use to flat bet one until a chop.


It would be the same, if we bet for chops to continue, or a predetermined random sequence.

Patience is the key! The history is not working in fun, so I shift to real in order to show the play. NOZ 0.05 stakes.  It took more than 40 minutes to get an Euro. This is the how EC works, we have to use 0.5 if we want some money out. I play to win "only", and want a large bankroll by units, without risking much money.


It was very much chopping so it needed  226 spins to make 20 units. Yes  we can lose here as well, I think it will in such case take very long time to lose 100 Euro. We should let things  take the time, increase the bet during a bad streak is against positive progression.


I got one 7 run, but was using it progress up to four, as I was on positive side, flat bet the rest and gain 2 units on the bets from 4-8.
I do not yet know if four or more are better, it may not matter, more than a deeper drowndown if we use more than four.

Went for the next 1.1 (0.11 is tax), and it took 312 spins, very choppy, if I had used chops instead of runs I would need half of the spins .
Got 5 runs only.  Still it could be managed.

Hello Ralph,

EC's are fun aren't they.

I would not be so presumptuous to suggest any bet selection, but I have had very good success playing the EC's with the following MM.

Of course if you can't pick your fair share of winners (give or take) then no MM known to man can save you.

+1 after a win when the wL registry shows more w than L.
+1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a win when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more w than L.
Same bet when wL registry is equal.
Same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 4.
Reset wL registry and same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 5.

You can reset the whole thing at +1 chip, or continue for your own win-goal/stop-loss. 

Quote from: Billion loudspeaker on February 20, 2013, 10:45:53 AM
Hello Ralph,

EC's are fun aren't they.

I would not be so presumptuous to suggest any bet selection, but I have had very good success playing the EC's with the following MM.

Of course if you can't pick your fair share of winners (give or take) then no MM known to man can save you.

1 after a win when the wL registry shows more w than L.
1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a win when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more w than L.
Same bet when wL registry is equal.
Same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 4.
Reset wL registry and same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 5.

You can reset the whole thing at  1 chip, or continue for your own win-goal/stop-loss. 

I play EC much less than inside. EC is fun a while, and can be boring after some hours. I like simple methods, do not like to track, using charts and other bookkeeping.  It is a game of chance, the method is a way to assume what will come in the next maybe 200 spins.
If we guess right, using that we CAN know it is possible to win.
Here we know it is LIKLEY to get a run of seven in 200 spins.  I  double up to four, then and flat bet one until a chop. If I am back I do not hesitate to count with the 7 or that's needed, it will come at some point hopefully before lost the risking money.


I have tried a lot of methods and  1 -1 simply I think is devastating, there are situations no bankroll will do. The chances do not even out in a reasonable time. Runs and chops are much more sure to come in a kind of predictable way. But all can go wrong whatever we do.


Last play I needed 230 spins to get 20 units, and that's looks like it will be about that most of the time.

Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AM

I play EC much less than inside. EC is fun a while, and can be boring after some hours.

I also mostly play inside. Roulette can be boring no matter what you play. Winning decent money only makes it worthwhile.

Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMIf we guess right, using that we CAN know it is possible to win.

Very true words, If you can guess right more then you guess wrong then you don't need no stinking progression.

Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMHere we know it is LIKLEY to get a run of seven in 200 spins.

Sorry Ralph, nothing is likely in this game.

Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMI have tried a lot of methods and  1 -1 simply I think is devastating

My suggestion is not your usual +1/-1. It is much more elastic, and with a well thought out win-goal/stop-loss, can be devastating to the casino.

But then again, I'm a pretty good judge.

1  -1 on Ec:s I have had drawdown of 50000 took weeks to reduce, come never back. Any simulation will proof it will too often go out of hands.


LIKLEY is not sure, it's a game. We can not have use of anything but the likely, it has some relevance, comparing to all sorts of styles we can see in postings. Everthing can be used, just because it has won a few times. The tweaks goes on forever.


1000 spins one number not showing, is not likely, but I have seen it (1008 before a hit) I do not count it will happen many times.
I did not lost the play, 1000 down playing one number is not too much to not recover. Problem with EC is a bad run is hard to recover , and the pay out is low, it is like 18 straight up, wins often but less, still got RFH.

 
I'm not here to argue with you Ralph, besides...

Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 12:07:09 PM
We can not have use of anything but the likely

What about very likely? 

@billion loudspeaker

The pic is epic! lol

Cheers

Sam!
I am sorry, but this news make it not easy to handle the casino. For now I have no access, I think it can be solved.

Ralph

This is strange.  Two computers on two different accounts at BV.  One shuts down for connection problem and the other just keeps on running.  I can't log back on with the one that shut down.  Tried on a third computer and still no access.

Sam

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 20, 2013, 06:36:23 PM
Ralph

This is strange.  Two computers on two different accounts at BV.  One shuts down for connection problem and the other just keeps on running.  I can't log back on with the one that shut down.  Tried on a third computer and still no access.

Sam

It is not a connection over all problem, since you access in one account. I can not access in real or fun, just demo.  We have to wait and see, they have more than one server as they are a large casino.