We see often methods which use progressions on EC:s, and it looks like many underestimate the chances for a longer run of the same.
How many times have we not seen somebody count a run of seven as very unlikely. An some think a wheel is rigged because it has been a run of 9 or more.
I have checked beside my other play, how often we can expect a longer run in 200 spins. The result is it is very rare to not see a run of
at least 5 in 200 spins, and it is more likely it is 6-9.
On a zero wheel a single zero can chop a run, and if we play against the run or not it is a problem. We should if possible play EC on NOZero.
Knowing we can expect about 7 in a run in 200 spins It should be possible to make some use of that knowledge. Seven run can a Martingale easy fix, but nothing says it can't be several more, and then the loss is as it use to be when a negative progression bust, the bankroll is wiped out.
I have done quite a lot of playing the last days, checking out how to use the runs, and I have done it many times before.
It will be some who might not agree, but exploring the runs should be using positive progressions. At to the maximum, we should reverse the Martingale. If we double on win we will lose a chip every trial, and win nothing at all.
We have to set a number of times we will double on a win, to have any chance to get a profit. As we know we are on 50% chance every spin on a NoZero, we only fight the variance, No HE, but a tax on the winnings.
There is a fair chance to get a run of 7 in about 200 spins. I started On BVNZ using 0.1 and , 40 Euro at risk.
Then we follow the last, and double up after a win, starting with reset after four winnings, and pocket the winnings. If the play went so choppy we could not recover using four winnings, it is to increase the times we try. We know it does not matter how many times we double, it is just a matter of time before they show, and seven is not very unlikely in about 200 spins.
We in a way change the role of the bank, the bank plays for one chip, the player going for more, the opposite as Martingale played double on loss, the the player risk much for a single chip.
I did this in fun mode, but the casino is not displaying my fun mode history since a few days, this happen now and then.
it is around 95% likely to have a run between 5-11 in 200 spins.
From my experience parlay is very effective..
Quote from: Ralph on February 17, 2013, 01:52:34 PM
Knowing we can expect about 7 in a run in 200 spins It should be possible to make some use of that knowledge. Seven run can a Martingale easy fix, but nothing says it can't be several more, and then the loss is as it use to be when a negative progression bust, the bankroll is wiped out.
In fact it is more likely to be more than less. The distribution of the longest run is a logarithmic histogram.
It is interesting and yet this thread seems to old only a few views.
Cheers
If not seven, it can be less or more. I just run 234 spins, got six two times at most. Got a plus of 44 units. On a NOZ wheel the chances are very good to make some chips. The bankroll will not be eaten fast, so there is time to wait out the runs.
I think it may be hard for some to put 32 units on the table after a run of five blacks "the red is due". It is a large number of players who swear it is a lesser chance to get 6 runs after seen 5, and a loss at 32 will not "lock in the winnings". There are system sold out there telling "Wait for six runs, and then martingale the opposite", and many more than we can image use it. On a local forum here this is discussed all the time, invented of many every day.
The negative progressions makes the winnings more often, but can not take more than one run against us. A loss at 32 chips put us down just one from start using positive.
The strength using positive is not it will give more winning spins, it is the effect on the bankroll, it will at least last longer.
I use to try four, and if I am down a bit I go for five or six. If I break at 5, and it continue I use to flat bet one until a chop.
It would be the same, if we bet for chops to continue, or a predetermined random sequence.
Patience is the key! The history is not working in fun, so I shift to real in order to show the play. NOZ 0.05 stakes. It took more than 40 minutes to get an Euro. This is the how EC works, we have to use 0.5 if we want some money out. I play to win "only", and want a large bankroll by units, without risking much money.
It was very much chopping so it needed 226 spins to make 20 units. Yes we can lose here as well, I think it will in such case take very long time to lose 100 Euro. We should let things take the time, increase the bet during a bad streak is against positive progression.
I got one 7 run, but was using it progress up to four, as I was on positive side, flat bet the rest and gain 2 units on the bets from 4-8.
I do not yet know if four or more are better, it may not matter, more than a deeper drowndown if we use more than four.
Went for the next 1.1 (0.11 is tax), and it took 312 spins, very choppy, if I had used chops instead of runs I would need half of the spins .
Got 5 runs only. Still it could be managed.
Hello Ralph,
EC's are fun aren't they. :thumbsup:
I would not be so presumptuous to suggest any bet selection, but I have had very good success playing the EC's with the following MM.
Of course if you can't pick your fair share of winners (give or take) then no MM known to man can save you.
+1 after a win when the wL registry shows more w than L.
+1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a win when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more w than L.
Same bet when wL registry is equal.
Same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 4.
Reset wL registry and same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 5.
You can reset the whole thing at +1 chip, or continue for your own win-goal/stop-loss.
Quote from: Billion loudspeaker on February 20, 2013, 10:45:53 AM
Hello Ralph,
EC's are fun aren't they. :thumbsup:
I would not be so presumptuous to suggest any bet selection, but I have had very good success playing the EC's with the following MM.
Of course if you can't pick your fair share of winners (give or take) then no MM known to man can save you.
1 after a win when the wL registry shows more w than L.
1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a win when the wL registry shows more L than w.
-1 after a loss when the wL registry shows more w than L.
Same bet when wL registry is equal.
Same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 4.
Reset wL registry and same bet when wL registry reaches a gap of 5.
You can reset the whole thing at 1 chip, or continue for your own win-goal/stop-loss.
I play EC much less than inside. EC is fun a while, and can be boring after some hours. I like simple methods, do not like to track, using charts and other bookkeeping. It is a game of chance, the method is a way to assume what will come in the next maybe 200 spins.
If we guess right, using that we CAN know it is possible to win.
Here we know it is LIKLEY to get a run of seven in 200 spins. I double up to four, then and flat bet one until a chop. If I am back I do not hesitate to count with the 7 or that's needed, it will come at some point hopefully before lost the risking money.
I have tried a lot of methods and 1 -1 simply I think is devastating, there are situations no bankroll will do. The chances do not even out in a reasonable time. Runs and chops are much more sure to come in a kind of predictable way. But all can go wrong whatever we do.
Last play I needed 230 spins to get 20 units, and that's looks like it will be about that most of the time.
Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AM
I play EC much less than inside. EC is fun a while, and can be boring after some hours.
I also mostly play inside. Roulette can be boring no matter what you play. Winning decent money only makes it worthwhile.
Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMIf we guess right, using that we CAN know it is possible to win.
Very true words, If you can guess right more then you guess wrong then you don't need no stinking progression.
Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMHere we know it is LIKLEY to get a run of seven in 200 spins.
Sorry Ralph, nothing is likely in this game.
Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 11:18:35 AMI have tried a lot of methods and 1 -1 simply I think is devastating
My suggestion is not your usual +1/-1. It is much more elastic, and with a well thought out win-goal/stop-loss, can be devastating to the casino.
But then again, I'm a pretty good judge.
1 -1 on Ec:s I have had drawdown of 50000 took weeks to reduce, come never back. Any simulation will proof it will too often go out of hands.
LIKLEY is not sure, it's a game. We can not have use of anything but the likely, it has some relevance, comparing to all sorts of styles we can see in postings. Everthing can be used, just because it has won a few times. The tweaks goes on forever.
1000 spins one number not showing, is not likely, but I have seen it (1008 before a hit) I do not count it will happen many times.
I did not lost the play, 1000 down playing one number is not too much to not recover. Problem with EC is a bad run is hard to recover , and the pay out is low, it is like 18 straight up, wins often but less, still got RFH.
I'm not here to argue with you Ralph, besides...
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi499.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Frr351%2Fskakus%2FCopyofwindmillbeard.jpg&hash=cb3538f19fd08d9015bcd2cbae306d8795444852)
Quote from: Ralph on February 20, 2013, 12:07:09 PM
We can not have use of anything but the likely
What about
very likely? :P
@billion loudspeaker
The pic is epic! lol
Cheers
Sam!
I am sorry, but this news make it not easy to handle the casino. For now I have no access, I think it can be solved.
Ralph
This is strange. Two computers on two different accounts at BV. One shuts down for connection problem and the other just keeps on running. I can't log back on with the one that shut down. Tried on a third computer and still no access.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 20, 2013, 06:36:23 PM
Ralph
This is strange. Two computers on two different accounts at BV. One shuts down for connection problem and the other just keeps on running. I can't log back on with the one that shut down. Tried on a third computer and still no access.
Sam
It is not a connection over all problem, since you access in one account. I can not access in real or fun, just demo. We have to wait and see, they have more than one server as they are a large casino.
Sam!
Do you still have access problem? I can not access BV, just demo as we can do without log in. I can log in but not open any game in fun or real mode. The stop at "Please wait" and nothing happens.
Hey, Ralph
Today I bought a software called "Hide My behind". It let's me log on from hundreds of cities throughout the world. I could not log in to BV, so I went to France. No problem at all.
And that history is working for me.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2013, 03:08:30 AM
Hey, Ralph
Today I bought a software called "Hide My behind". It let's me log on from hundreds of cities throughout the world. I could not log in to BV, so I went to France. No problem at all.
And that history is working for me.
Sam
Could you not log in at all, or could you not open the games. I can log in see my balance, and real play history. I can not see the history for fun mode. I can not open any game in fun or real. I think I can withdraw my money.
I do not think the problem is on my side, the computer seems to be OK.
Ralph
I had the same problem all day. But France is working very nicely. AND THE FOOD IS GOOD!!
:P
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2013, 04:17:29 AM
Ralph
I had the same problem all day. But France is working very nicely. AND THE FOOD IS GOOD!!
:P
Sam
I have to contact them, as it is some money in game account which is not possible to withdraw or move unless I can open the games.
Bv support wrote they have techical problems, and they work hard to solve it. I should soon run as usual.
I bet it's those Chinese hackers! :nod:
Bv is on now!
578 new spins.
Total is now 1724 spins and Total plus is 8.45. Not very slow, while it is the lowest chip value and EC.
I have tried d'Alembert and Oscars Grind on Ec:s and none is very safe. I have had a session of d'Alembert running for weeks and was stopped at a astronomical down. Oscars grind has about the same problem on EC chances.
If we use that we can know of the EC, what we can expect as reasonable outcome, is we will have streaks of the same. I have tested that here using reversed martingale, and it shows to be better than the previous.
It is anyhow not really good. Some players will feel uncomfortably to parlay a lot of times. If we look for a way which has very small chance to lose, and accept a low winning I think we can make a better method. It is probably tried before, very few things are left.
We can make a method which reset the bets as soon we are on plus, in order to avoid higher bets.
We can use the chops to cancel WL and then adjust the progressions to real losses, and so save on the bets size.
That's mean we should not increase the stakes after one loss, rather two, next spin can cancel the loss.
That's mean too, we should not reduce the bet on the first win.
We start with 1 unit and if we win we end this session.
If a loss, we bet one again, if win we end the session as break even.
If second too is a loss, we bet two units, If a win it's a break even.
If a loss on two it is a loss total of four.
We bet two again and if we win we have two minus so we bet two again and if win we are break even.
I short we add a chip after two losses in a row, and take away a chip after two win in a row, and reset the stakes
as soon we are not back.
We can not have a high win rate, but have very good chance to end up on plus. It may take time.
The easier way to follow the game is to use runs, and bet on the last outcome.
I have done some playing, using this, and I will try more, and publish the coming one, the old ones is history and a test should be done in play.
Some screenshots will come.
This is just about 50 spins, but shows how slow it can be. The highest was 4 units, about 15 in drawdown.
Plus 2.
A 50 long session, this got plus 9. Max four in a bet. Small drawndown.
50 spins and plus 20.
This won more than the previous, it won not more due to the method, rather the bet selection, which is follow the last. It happens to be fewer chops, that's the only reason.
50 more spins. plus 13 units. I run this in shorter periods, as I think the method can be used on a land casino, trying to win about 100 units in an evening.
As always nothing is sure in the game, use only the money you can possible lose, or play fun.
I have some thoughts about the variance on EC bets. It is the thing we have to try to control, on a NZ wheel it is just about that, stay on the right side is needed if we want to win. We have two common ways of doing it, that is progressions and study the deviation.
None of them is easy and powerful. I will test to combine it, so the first is to use the variance, which is to use the history. And some kind of progression to enhance the chances to correct a drowndown. The progression will be used spare, and a longer run will be used to try to catch up.
I have done 542 spins and used more than one chip in about 50 spins, highest 6 chips.
1197 spins done, the result is plus, but not much, as at BV we must bet every spin, waiting for a deviation cost some bets where we should be waiting. (It is possible to make mutual, but not liked by the casino).
119 unit plus. Some progression done, as that the only way to hit harder when it is time to bet, as all spins were played.
After 1600 spins the plus is 7.80 wich is 156 units.
It took 132 spins to win 20 units.
It is possible a RFH can come, even a wheel with 50% chance, can meet a losing streak which will even out after millions of spins.
It can dive and stay below zero for years. I have 1000 units as stop loss. The opposite is also possible, it can win for the same length.
121 spins and just one unit.
When using one up on loss, one down on win. The player can assume a win comes after a loss, and the opposite. That is a kind of GF.
He can also assume the EC will even out and then the method has some merit. That is in one sense right and in another view wrong.
The even out process is a very long one, and the difference in numbers can increase forever, and the % part of the difference can still decrease. This method has a risk to rather fast go out of hands.
Would it be better to try to extend it, so betting the same stake for 10 spins, go up if minus, stay if even and go down on a win.
If we win, the EC is dominant, so we may change to opposite chance. From a mathematical view it will not help at all (from that view you must have luck to win in the short run and in the long you will lose), but delay the problem of a loss, most of the time. That because the risk of the depleting the bankroll, will be somewhat lower. The winning will most of the time be lower, as the bet are lower.
On a NZ the zillions of spins will make it break even. So in the limit time we will win or lose, and break even if we chose to stop at such point if reached.
I have tried this before, and did some play today. It is from my experience less risky, but gain less. This time I got 60 units in 180 spins.
The highest pile was 6 units, I start with one went up, and down to one in this 180 spins.
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on February 23, 2013, 07:02:17 AM
Don't even think about EC progressions until you can 100% guarantee you pick more winners than losers, or at least 50/50.
If you can do that, then a mild 1 -1 progression with a touch of ingenuity can really puff up the smoke cloud.
It is not possible to guarantee a pick over 50%, if that's possible you must own millions by now. 1 -1 is a very famous loser method.
I have here played (for demonstration, as I never serious use it) using two EC. Using two Ec at the time is as all hedge not very good.
We win about a quarter of the bets, half are of no use, and only 1/4 wins. In the shorter run as a session is, a good streak on the color will decrease at the odd or the other EC play . The though you can win more, due to playing on more chances is not valid.
A loss of 16.8 units in 380 spins. And I expect the chance to win was minor, so it is not done in real mode. Hedging is never a good method.