It is my personal belief a long-term winner needs to be harvested from the short term. The long term is -after all- only the net concatenation of many shorter terms. If you focus in beating these shorter spans/frames and succeed, you beat the long term, without even worrying about it.

Foundations to this task:
1) Must be adaptative.

Over the years, the accepted conclusion is there is simply no stiff bet you can plug-in and beat the game.

The only thing that is accepted -even by the casinos- is there are winning time-frames for punters.

If you would have a way to identify and back those lucky punters' bets when they are having their winning run, you could sum 'em all. Likewise, you could substitute "punter" for "bet/method/trigger" in order to make the same. Nobody is putting a gun in your head for you to lose it all stiffly with one single trigger. You have the ability to stop and re-evaluate current conditions.

2) It must be a STRATEGY, comprehending several bet/triggers.

No single trigger can work.

The best trigger for your time-line strategy gets to be the one that clumps the most.

This enables you to identify such bets the easiest.

When they aren't getting hits at the rate probability would dictate for the current cycle, you disable them and put them to sleep for as long as they wish to be a sleeper. On the other hand, when your monitored bet is having one of its good runs at the expected rate for the cycle or better, you stick to it and leech it for everything it's worth.

3) Money management must be focused on bankroll preservation AND bankroll compounding at the same time.

Your money management must have two modes:

1) First mode should be oriented to bankroll preservation.

After a losing session you should ideally reduce your unit to the minimal/base unit available, in order to let evening-out concatenated bad sessions take the least in actual chip value.

2) Second mode, after a winning session, must be oriented to BANKROLL COMPOUNDING.

Your aim needs to be to lose pennies on concatenated bad times and win dollars, fivers and as much as possible in concatenated good sessions.

Even as the game "matches" your net units to the expected rate, the management of your unit value according to negative and positive trams needs to give you a remainder after the base raw units (in number) get evened-out. Remember the wheel and the felt are inanimate objects and don't communicate. The wheel doesn't know anything about how much is there of the felt on any place. The raw unit numbers are scheduled to even-out, but the VALUE of those units in the positive and negative trams is completely up to you. They don't need to be static. You can use this to your benefit.

Lose less when losing and win more when winning, in a practical way.

Other points to consider:

- If possible do not use negative progressions, try to recoup with positive progressions.

- After a successful session, you must split in a three-way:

1. First session bankroll: this is the single bank you take to the casino, this is what you inflate to grow your unit VALUE. The larger the unit VALUE on this bankroll, the more "regular" units go to the other two below.

2. Reserve banks: This stack is made out of MINIMAL BASE UNIT bankrolls. These are used after a losing session as first session bankrolls. YOUR GOAL IS TO HAVE AS MANY OF THESE BASE-UNIT RESERVE BANKS AS POSSIBLE. They are your oxygen. A single winning session with an engorged first-session unit size can mean several new ones of these reserve banks. If you are successful, you might end up having so many BASE UNITS on these banks it would take more than your chronological lifetime to have the casino getting them back. Then you can be certain to end your gambling career a winner.

3. NET GAINS: this is what you take for your personal expenses. This is your personal reward. This clearly defines "When your money is your money", this should be used, invested, locked away and never used again into a casino game. The casino can't take what you don't put again in the game. This amount of the split you can call 100% yours.

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In doubt: 33%, 33%, 33% for each one of them.

Vic, I agree with you on all points except the positive progressions.

I believe I can make a good case for CONTROLLED negative progressions being superior, but to some extent it depends on the probability of your bet winning. If you're covering 30 numbers, a purely positive progression is probably the better option.

So, what else is new?
You might say that I easily understood that.

So what do you hope to accomplish with this thread.

As you might have gotten from the first version's typos and truncated sentences, this isn't completed. I'm missing several  instances of"ideally" and "possibly" too.

I just want to give my take on what COULD, POSSIBLY, MAYBE, etc. would take a winner to be drawn to existence. We know the large numbers as in the compound gross of all punter's bets is the realm of the house, we are only left with our "ins and out of the game" i.e. with our sessions, as in the short term.

I'm seasoned enough not to declare anything as 100%.

Quote from: Bayes on January 07, 2013, 05:33:43 PM
Vic, I agree with you on all points except the positive progressions.

I believe I can make a good case for CONTROLLED negative progressions being superior, but to some extent it depends on the probability of your bet winning. If you're covering 30 numbers, a purely positive progression is probably the better option.

There are certainly negative progression schemes which can hold a lot, but as a rule of thumb, the lesser exposure for your bank is achieved by positive ones. Kindly see the edits, they give room to other approaches.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 07, 2013, 05:37:04 PM
So what do you hope to accomplish with this thread.

No agenda. Just "venting" some ideas if you please

Contributions and personal takes on the subject from other fellow members who want to share their ways are welcome.

MONEY MANAGEMENT is absolutely crucial. Especially when using methods that have smaller odds. And are more likely to lose several times in every 100 games played.

Only experience can give you an indicator as to how best to utilize MM for the particular method you are using. When you have played several thousand games of a method.

The best application becomes crystal clear. When to raise and when to lower. We are betting money to win money. Therefore we must protect it as much as possible.

With PB I know its strengths well enough to know how to apply MM to it. It produces few double losses. So that's a prime time to recoup at least a portion of a lost game.

It produces many winning streaks of at least 5 games. That offers the option to utilize a multi level staking system. To bet at a higher level for 5 games. Then drop to a lower level until a loss occurs.

Minimizing lost units when you lose a game. A more vunerable method like PB calls for smarter MM. When you are using a method I am soon to introduce to the forum called 7 ON 1. it's a different ball game. You could still use mutli level staking.
But with an as yet unknown average strikerate. The tendency is to play it in auto pilot at a single level progression. And double that once you double the bankroll.

So money managements importance for me is of greater importance with more vunerable methods. That present more of a challenge to make longterm winners.

I'm seeing a side of the forums that I can say that I'm very pleased to see. A small handful of us have the attitude to never give up. I know why my threads draw very few followers. It's clear to see that the smartest people here have their own personal preference for success. I must confess myself. Most of my interest is in furthering my own strategy. I suspect that other players hold similar interests.

I don't see the point in killing myself to create a computer simulation for what is clearly known by others. People are better than simulations. There is enough published information on this website to establish that the holy grail of Roulette has been achieved.

Things of high value to me are visual dexterity and things that continue recognition. I see the opportunities in about two to five seconds. I make my bet selections, based on my published strategy, in less than 15 seconds. That gives me plenty of time to get my next bet down.

I believe this is an accompanying topic:

Bet, Trigger, System, Strategy, Meta-strategy