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Topics - alrelax

#1
General Discussion / Made A Decision
March 30, 2025, 05:00:10 PM
I have made a decision not to write and post any threads or in any threads for quite awhile.

I will still Admin and monitor all threads as normal.

Thanks,
Stay well,
Alrelax
#2
Alrelax's Blog / Made A Decision
March 30, 2025, 04:58:26 PM
I have made a decision not to write or post in any threads for quite awhile.

I will still Admin and monitor all threads as normal.

Thanks,
Stay well,
Alrelax
#3
What happens to the plants when the Bellagio Conservatory changes themes?


https://www.ktnv.com/news/what-happens-to-the-plants-when-the-bellagio-conservatory-changes-themes
#4
Actual Baccarat Shoes / Think And Be Smart
March 19, 2025, 01:16:52 PM
I entered the shoe right after the 8-IAR player streak, bought in as soon as the single Natural Banker appeared.

Lost my first hand to players, wagered Banker base bet, Fortune 7, heavenly 9s and blazing 7s. Next hand I hit my first Fortune 7, BOOM!

I looked and studied the previous play posted on the scoreboard, which I don't always do and don't always subscribe to, but I did. Chops, 2s, 3s and strong players. I missed the 3 card 200:1 blazing 7s, as you see right after the panda 8 at the start of the 8 players IAR.

My decision was only wagering banker base bets and 3 side bets for one section at least. Reason being, equalization and strong platforms forming. Like I've said in the past until I was blue in the face, "Wager with what is being presented". And to me that's what was being presented.

Lost two players. Won one bankers. Lost two players. I won a 3 card 9 on player side.

Boom!  Another Fortune 7 and two more bankers. Also the tie was a beautiful 50:1 two card 7-7 win!

Lost the two players. Won a bank. Lost three players.

Then a banker win.  Won 3 card 9 on bankers and another banker.

Then another Fortune 7 for my scrumptious amazing hit!

Lost two players and won the 3 card 9 on players side as well.

Won a banker.

Lost a player. Then won a beautiful 75:1 on the 3 card 9-9 tie.  (A few of us had terrific amount of energy while the rest were losing. What happened on this hand, I would like to say. The players pull a blackjack and the bankers had a 9 and a 2. The players pull an 8 and those wagering on the players were fist pumping their hands in the air and telling everybody how they won the hand.  Myself and one other had maximum Wager on the heavenly 9s.  We look at each other and call for a snowman and we both stand up and tell everybody, "it's not over til it's over". And sure enough the dealer flops a snowman, gotta love it!).

Lost the next 2players. Won a banker. Lost a player. Won the 3 bankers with parlays. Stopped didn't play the last three or four hands of the shoe, which it was the same as what just happened.

NEW SHOE:

Next shoe played the first 10 hands. I have written until I was blue in the face about the first 10 to 16 hands in the past. Research it and see.

First hand was a 2 card 7-7 tie, a beautiful 50:1 win.  Won the 2 Fortune 7s, BADDA BING BADDA BOOM!. Won the 3 card 9 on the playerers side. Stopped end of session.  Won 7 bankers and 2 Fortune 7s and the 3 card 9 on the players side.  Enough.  Done.  If I played longer, I knew I couldn't reset to what is the equivalent of starting a new session.  My next session in a week or so, I most certainly can.  That's me, I know how I am. 

NOTE:  Resetting yourself and being oblivious to recent wins is vital to maintaining a clear thought vision, IMO.   

Yes I wanted to play more. Yes I had visions of winning more. But I was in reality, took the handsome profit cashed out and left.

The game is Baccarat.  You decide how to wager, when to wager and how long to stay.

POST CASINO:  HMoney, another and myself went to one of the restaurants we favor to chill out.  We had a special blend of Vietnamese iced coffee that brews at your table and PHO.  It drips and drips into the concentrated cream and then you stir it extensively.  Then pour into the tall ice filled glass. Add a bit of iced water.  See pictures.  Talk, chill and leave the casino out of it.
#5
Al's Book Reviews / Las Vegas A Panoramic Vision
March 10, 2025, 01:31:43 AM
Las Vegas
A Panoramic Vision


By:  David Miller
12 X 17"
256 Pages
Published 2007

A beautiful oversized amazing book!  So much history and great shots of everything in a casino, the buildings and around Vegas.

I don't believe it is being published any longer but maybe some are available through auction sites, etc.

Highly recommended x100!

#6
7-20-22.

Why?  I don't know, but the few times I observe I would witness those hit.
#7
A Clark County District Court judge has ruled that Las Vegas-based gaming equipment manufacturer Light & Wonder jumped the gun by marketing a no-commission baccarat game from the British Columbia Lottery Corp. called Ruyi Baccarat before an agreement it had with a rival gaming provider had expired.

Read On:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/judge-rules-vegas-gaming-company-breached-agreement-by-marketing-baccarat-game-3316135/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=recommend

See attached picture of mine, I play on a Light & Wonder 5 Treasures.
#8
The last couple of months have reflected Atlantic City casinos' offseason period. December didn't change much as the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported that properties produced $231.8 million in December revenue.

Atlantic City casinos generated $2.82 billion in 2024 earnings. It's a 1.1% decrease from 2023 when the industry recorded $2.85 billion.

The retail industry finished just ahead of New Jersey online casinos in December, which set another record last month by posting $228 million. After slipping to iGaming revenue for the first time ever in October, Atlantic City has been able to fend off the vertical in each of the last two months.

As the heart of the offseason continues, it'll remain a tough task to do so.

AC casinos slightly increase from November

The 3.5% month-over-month increase from November likely saved the retail industry from falling behind online casinos for the second time ever. Atlantic City casinos posted $223.9 million in November.

Despite the increase on a month-over-month basis, properties remained flat year-over-year, showing a 0.3% decline from December 2023. Jane Bokunewicz, faculty director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism (LIGHT) at the Stockton University School of Business, said in a statement about the status of the retail industry:

"The December calendar did not fall favorably this year for Atlantic City operators. ... Internet gaming, which does not seem to be impacted by the number of weekends in the month in the same way that in-person gaming is, predictably showed a year-over-year increase for the month."

The weekends are a key component to AC casinos. The city had four full weekends in December. Perhaps the holiday provided that slight bump last month for AC operators.

Concerns that online casinos are cannibalizing AC casinos?

It's no secret that iGaming operators are taking the gambling market by storm in states where it is legal, especially in New Jersey. That has brought on fears about the vertical cutting into Atlantic City properties.

Bokunewicz clearly admits to the rapid popularity of online casinos. However, she's not hitting the panic button in Atlantic City, either:

"New Jersey was a fast mover when it came to innovative new gaming products, such as internet gaming, and the state seems to be reaping the benefits of this. The industry is evolving and changing. These new products are very popular and do not seem to have reached their peak.

"At the same time, brick-and-mortar revenues have been relatively flat. They are not showing signs of proportionate decline, which we'd expect if cannibalization were an issue."

Both verticals, but especially AC casinos, will "need to stay on top of emerging trends and responsive to changes in customer preferences," Bokunewicz said.

She also warned against the potential competition the industry could face in light of New York's downstate casinos.

Breaking down Atlantic City casino December revenue

Casino Name.  Numbers to match the 4 areas below from left to right.

Total Gaming Win    Table Games    Poker    Slot Machines

Borgata    $62,727,821 $18,935,367 $1,125,558
$42,666,896

Hard Rock    $42,847,522    $13,066,813  (No Poker) $29,780,709

Resorts    $12,366,684    $2,577,693 (No Poker)  $9,788,991

Ocean Casino    $34,679,044    $7,787,019 (No Poker)  $26,892,025

Harrah's    $19,287,538 $3,709,048    $222,997
$15,355,493

Tropicana    $19,898,558 $5,078,712    $145,393    $14,674,453

Caesars    $19,013,828    $6,808,858 (No Poker)  $12,204,969

Golden Nugget    $10,923,090    $2,419,937  (No Poker)  $8,503,153

Bally's    $10,008,814    $1,903,641  (No Poker)  $8,105,173

Total All Casinos  $231,752,899    $62,287,089    $1,493,948    $167,971,862
#9
Las Vegas
An Unconventional History

By:  Michelle Ferrari and Stephen Ives

$40.00 Cover Price
272 Pages
Oversized book

Absolut a great history of Las Vegas and gaming as well.  Easy reading.  Great collection of countless items and events that developed Vegas and gaming in the city.  From the earliest days to Vegas today.

To name just a few of the areas covered:

The buildings
The games
The entertainment
The wedding chapels
The mob
The Ratpack
The Frontier
The Stardust
The Sahara
The Flamingo
The Sands

Highly recommend without question!
#11
Alrelax's Blog / Chinese Comedian on Opening Cards
February 22, 2025, 04:09:41 AM
Come on brother, this is funny!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5cE09Ypyc&t=9s
#13
Sports Betting Forum / Super Bowl! Eagles & Chiefs
February 07, 2025, 12:26:12 PM
Well, read my thread below this one where the Eagles and Chiefs got to where they currently are.  And don't get me wrong both teams are amongst my favorite four teams.

RE: Thread Below:  https://betselection.cc/sports-betting-forum/todays-2-NFL-wagers/

Okay here it is:

Eagles will win: 27.  Chiefs 24.

Below picture is a screenshot text between a Vegas Casino Host and myself. The reference to the Korean place is a, 'cook at your table' style restaurant which winds up costing about $75.00-125.00 per person. 

Thank You,
Alrelax
#14
Civil & Criminal Topics / Copper Theft at Vegas Airport
February 06, 2025, 02:29:57 PM
Hard to believe, but really brazen people I guess.

Power outages at Las Vegas airport due to copper theft.

https://airlive.net/news/2025/02/04/power-outages-at-las-vegas-airport-due-to-copper-theft/
#15
Wagering & Intricacies / 7 Things
February 03, 2025, 01:53:13 AM
The Way Things Should Go In Today's Session

Do not allow frustration, anger and/or recouping to be your guideline/frame-of-mind.  You have to be in control of the way you look at the shoe being presented. In place of frustration, anger and/or recouping, you must take action.  Your response (not the response of the shoe) will dictate what generally occurs in your wagering decisions. A part of your decisions are completely uncontrollable and undefinable circumstances will occur, while the majority of them are decided by your outlook on previous presentments and your opinion on what should/has to occur next.  Thus, you ultimately end up heavily dependent on playing your ends with the hopes of having them match your desires, instead of you matching what is being presented.

The Way You Used To Be

Simple!  Do not dig too deep. You are NOT the same gambling person you were last month, a few months ago, a year ago, etc. Even though you realize a greater amount of reality and what can or generally does not happen from a shoe, you need to realize what is happening—is occurring and what is not, might very quickly happen. Most people do not and never will.

When you do, you will master change rather than allowing it to master you.  So—please be humble when you play!  Be absorbable and realize reality.  Realize anything and everything can happen, but what is happening just happened. So many people do not and it's a concept of visualization taking over common sense.

Your Mistakes In Wagers

Forgive yourself for your bad decisions you have made in the past. For all the times you made stupid, unintelligent and blatantly obvious mistakes. Those were your vital lessons and that is all that matters. Period!

***Understand & Believing: Unchangeable***

It is simple, but so very difficult for most all to swallow, absorb and follow.  Can I change what is happening or what will happen?

Whatever you do, do not attempt to change what is occurring (being presented).  Truth be told in baccarat and other games, the most powerful moments will happen when you win. However, what you believe got you to that point (hand-section-series, etc) of wins will challenge your mindset.  Realizing you did not change the results to meet your desires, changes everything for your huge benefit which will equal further advantage for yourself.

There is a great amount of unchangeable in baccarat.  The quicker you understand that will be to your benefit in countless ways. 

Fantasy of a Perfect Path

Way too often most of us totally waste money and time as well as incur huge amounts of frustration and bad circumstances that prevent positive progress.

You must leave the fantasy at the door, 100% in total. There is no other way to explain it. You can believe it or not.

The Unknown Familiarity

Most all sit down and fall into an unconscious familiarity at the baccarat table. There is no growth process, learning curve or struggle with them to play the game to their advantage. 

Yes, it is sad but it is also uncontrollable behavior of their (at one time mine also) view on the game also.  Why?  Because at the Baccarat table there is no waiting, no walking, no physical labor, no taking back and redoing, nothing that really prevents circumstances that could prevent us from continually believing we know everything and will win. When losses occur, they do.  When wins occur, they do.  So kind of instant everything to a certain point.  The trick is, IMO knowing the sheer reality and being able to handle both wins and losses to your advantage.

However if you believe in the reality of the game of baccarat and set aside your desires, you just completed one tiny (could be large) step and put on a great game face that can lead you down paths to your advantage.

The Struggle.  The Results.

Struggling results are huge advantages in baccarat, no matter which way they go.

The struggle is your process during play.
Uncomfortable at times and extremely comfortable during other times. The struggle you encounter each session should make you stronger, more educated and more experienced. The struggle will produce losses and wins. It is up to you to get in touch with reality and understand it while coupling a rock solid Money Management and Method.

Struggle does not mean you are always profitable.  However if used correctly, struggle can lead you to success in so many ways.  But you have to find it and know it.

The results are your losses and wins.
How you handle those two will dictate the outcomes, session by session, month by month, year-by-year, etc.

READ CAREFULLY:  Your results will be formed by your decision making process and your Money Management Method.  Not much else. If you cannot be conscious of what your decision making process is, as well as a rock solid Money Management Method you are engaging with—pack it up. However if you do, there is a great chance you will define-describe and STRUGGLE into good profitable RESULTS.
#16
Off-topic / Helping you guys define Asian accents
January 28, 2025, 06:38:58 PM
Watch this to help you define Asian accents at the casino!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=673PjkcBG00
#17
Off-topic / On The Lighter Side. Great Gambling Clips.
January 28, 2025, 03:26:47 PM
Grab a cup of coffee, a glass of your favorite liquor, or a sparkling water. And click on these.  IMO, some of the best.  Enjoy. 

If you don't laugh at this first one, something is wrong with you!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wK2dAoIxWBQ

If you can't feel this one, something is wrong!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_VBo7uc1i2k&pp=ygUUR2FtYmxpbmcgc2NlbmUgbW92aWU%3D


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sOPB9c4t0Ok

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t2Z3vEfWZAo&pp=ygUWYmxhY2tqYWNrIHNjZW5lIGNhc2lubw%3D%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xDFqRFODiMg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FZlm1ledK-I

Gotta love this classic:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT3yyeikbic&pp=ygUYYmxhY2tqYWNrIHNjZW5lIGhhbmdvdmVy

What a line; "I want to know how we are doing.  Talk to me at 4:00 AM".  @ the 4:30 mark.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ9dCkuALok&pp=ygUUZ2FtYmxpbmcgc2NlbmUgbW92aWU%3D

One great scene!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y2pCZFpq9aA&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFgqmAMglk&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dTMHrljIW0g&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

Come on man it's great;  "Okay, I'm done":
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=p0pBXE4pxtE&pp=ygUXTGFzIHZlZ2FzIHNlcmllcyBzY2VuZXM%3D

Another one, "This should be sweet".  Love the lines and actions from the dealer!  LMAO!!!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qQTrdxONG70

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MlCYBrLOP3A

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KoUs-1jppUk

Off the wall!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iyE8XOn1CZo&pp=ygUXR2FicmllbCBJZ2xlc2lhcyBDYXNpbm8%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hTMWugFklMo&pp=ygURQ29tZWRpYW4gZ2FtYmxpbmc%3D

Love this, especially about the Indian people roulette reference!  Watch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KvECCjLSSjI&pp=ygURQ29tZWRpYW4gZ2FtYmxpbmc%3D

Darn!  I just took a bite of a sandwich while I was watching the following one.  He got to his part about the Asians thinking they can change the card value and going ApeSh*t if they do or don't.  I literally began laughing so hard, my mouthful of food went everywhere!  Seriously! Lol!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5cE09Ypyc

Classic without a doubt!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vk7eA4gVDno

About playing slot machines.  Hilarious! 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1ci8bokXZ_s&pp=ygUWQ29tZWRpYW4gYWJvdXQgY2FzaW5vcw%3D%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uSWJ6VF9bss
#18
Sports Betting Forum / Today’s 2 NFL Wagers
January 26, 2025, 04:36:41 PM
Well I normally do not do it. And it's been quite a long time since I wagered sports. And in addition, my four favorite NFL teams include the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Against my better judgment to wager favorites as a fan.

So with that said and taking into consideration a fantastic Bac win last night, which I'm going to outline in a new thread titled, "The Session From Heaven" in the Baccarat Forum here in just a bit.

Chiefs & Bills spread, took the Chiefs @ -1.5 for $2k

Eagles & Commanders spread, took the Eagles @ -6 for $2k.

Like I said they are my favorite teams but I'm not betting because of just that.  And again like I said, it's kind of against my better judgment but I'm doing it.
#19
The other night my friend and I sat down at a brand new shoe just starting. In fact he cut the deck and it was in the range of the cards that we like, which was between a 3-6. 

This was a 5-Treasures layout on a midi (Macau style) table.  We tend to lean a bit towards the Bankers side most times but not set in stone.  Anyways we went to the casino to play possibly 2 or 3 shoes, so figure on 5-7 hours depending on problems and drawn out hands, etc.  So we both buy-in and get set. 

First hand we both wagered Bankers and F7 ($50) and 777s ($25).  Players returned an 8/A and Bankers returned a 7/2.  We both stayed the same and replaced the $75 that was swiped away after the tie. 

Second hand Players returned a 3/9  and Bankers had a Face/10.  Players flopped a 5 and our side flopped a 7 for a beautiful 200:1 3-card 7 both sides tie on the 777s wager.  After the payout and the celebratory actions, we both looked at each other and simply nodded our heads.  A bit larger on the Bankers base bet and the same on the F7 and the 777s wagering.  Most others, if they were on the 777s, actually did not wager again on it, with the exception of a lady seated next to us. 

Third hand Players returned a Blackjack A/10 and the Bankers had a 4/Face.  Players pulled and flopped a 6 card.  I looked at my buddy and told him (as I do you guys and even posted actually pics on here, of the table with the F7 being formed by its third card a 6) of that happening.  Well here is where it gets down and dirty.  The dealer, a super cute young Asian lady pulls the 3rd card from the shoe and is about to slide it to the highest wagering person on the Bankers side, but stalls with a few of her fingernails on the edge of it and says, "if you guys really want a 3, let me flip it".  We all look at each other like it's going to matter and one of us says, "at least if we do, we can blame her for not getting it". 

Pit supervisor comes over and says to the dealer, "are you trying to convince the people you have some kind of magical powers again?"  Well we told her okay.  She doesn't flip it right away, but she picks it up so the back is towards us.  She shakes her head no and slowly and I mean slowly flops it over.  It was a 3.  OMG, High-5s and loud acknowledgements occurred.  Beautiful and almost unprecedented by us back-to-back with the 777s 200:1 wagers. 

We both got up, colored up and planned to cash out and leave after just the 3 hands.  Not our best or greatest win, but probably one of our quickest.  Possibly could have won 20 Xs the amount and as well, could have been blind sided by the ease of it and lost it all and chased what we gave back and then donated our buy-in. 

IMO winning right away or losing right away are both extremely dangerous to one's play and thought process.  Reality is powerful and blinding. You have to push yourself down a path to perform under extreme stressful situations for periods of time. Somehow you have to remove yourself from the stress, but physically remain there performing.  Not easy as so many pretend it is.

Finding a deep sense of meaning with the game that is not totally dependent upon winning. Because you cannot win all the time. And it took me a long stretch of playing the game to learn that.

Winning comes, and when it does you must be able to pour it on, hit it extremely hard and take advantage. But doing so from an outside view looking in, instead of from the player's view of waiting for something special to happen, will allow you great advantage and clarity.  Looking 'in' so to say, will allow you to hopefully not get lost by winning. Getting lost in winning or losing, tends the highest majority of all times to drag you down and make you lose your clarity. And clarity is an advantage in this game.

So what was it like? I will tell you what it was like. It was ecstasy with fresh homemade ice cream, topped with luscious whipped cream and fresh cherries. It was carte blanche to go, fast, quick and without any frustration or thought whatsoever.

But I have respect for the game that is so darn volatile. We went out to eat afterwards and not at the property's steakhouse which we could've easily been comped for. We went off property, out of the casino-out of the realm of the action with possible additional wins and as well where the usual losses are occurring and reoccurring.

At the off property restaurant, where we pay out of pocket of course, we ate and told our stories. We laughed and enjoyed ourselves. And let me tell you something, there was no pressure to drive back a few miles to attempt greater wins at the casino. We were done for the session.  And we rehashed about rebooting and forgetting about those wagers, at least repetitively trying for them in the future. 

Not that I am right or wrong or any of you are in our casino plays. But, as the sage say, "hope comes in many forms".  Looking back now a few days later, our unplanned dinner out with the unpretentious discussion about the few hands we played, actually in total was many fold the time of the session itself, comical and rare but such a memory and always will be.

I am going to borrow a line from someone that I admire. "Relax, sit down and serve yourself up a taste of life".
#20
Click on the following link to read the initial official press release from the US Attorney's Office.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdmi/pr/2024_0307_arrest_casino_heist

Click on the following link to read the guilty conviction of the case.

https://apnews.com/article/michigan-casino-theft-conviction-8ca602f79391bd321d6a960e0b78ae09
#21
Cryptocurrency forum / Raja Ignatova One Coin
January 05, 2025, 08:47:26 AM
For those of you unfamiliar, here it is.  And, I will guarantee you she is not the last devious and questionable person to enter or maintain presence in the crypto market.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruja_Ignatova

In July 2022 Ruja Ignatova, the self-styled 'Cryptoqueen' behind a pyramid scheme called OneCoin, was placed on the FBI's Top 10 Most Wanted list. Accused of defrauding investors of an amount estimated at between $3.6 to 4.5 billion, the Bulgarian-born Ignatova disappeared in 2017. In June last year came a new development: The FBI increased the existing reward of $250,000 to a whopping $5 million for any information that leads to her arrest.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-put-5-million-bounty-225502163.html

The Official FBI 10 Most Wanted Info:

On October 12, 2017, Ignatova was charged in the United States District Court, Southern District of New York and a federal warrant was issued for her arrest.  On February 6, 2018, a superseding indictment was issued charging Ignatova with one count each of Conspiracy to Commit Wire Fraud; Wire Fraud; Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering; Conspiracy to Commit Securities Fraud; and Securities Fraud.

https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/ruja-ignatova
#22
Well, here is mine.

Ongoing, ongoing, ongoing, and ongoing for some time now.  Research, write, study, read, write, write more, and write even more. Talk and repeat all the above, along with playing, playing, playing playing, playing, and even more play.

Yet, I am not satisfied and I will not die, period!  Not yet or for a while anyways.

And here is where as they classically say, the plot thickens and my resolution comes into play.

What is it I want?  To complete a one million dollar plus win session within 2 to 3 shoes. And in my heart and soul, I know it is coming. How do I know? Because my Guardian Angel told me so. Crazy I know, but so very true.  It is inevitable and it will happen in 2025.  (Side Note:  My record for any single session has never been over $200k)

Can I do it? Oh hell yes my friends, enemies and trolls, I certainly can. By the way, that 4 word question; "Can I do it" was a 100% rhetorical question in every way!

All of you guys, have a great 2025! 

Love you all, 
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner
#23
Wagering & Intricacies / Drawdown and Thinking
December 18, 2024, 11:11:56 AM
It is not easy. There is absolutely no, "one plan for all" as most think there is or should be.

First of all, I would like to give a comparison. Attorneys and trying a case in the courtroom. There is a huge difference between paper law and actual trial law. With that in mind read on.

Now. First you have to have somewhat of a game plan with a rock solid adherence to a Money Management Method that will give you advantages.

Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be.

Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times. When it does not, be conscious of it and play as though you are drawing down on your buy-in, rather than risking your wins all too quick, which will usually result in that "giving it right back syndrome" which happens all the time.

A good drawdown understanding will be established when a player stabilizes his wager with a base unit all in proportion to his buy-in. As well, he must also have a plan as to what he will do with wins and losses of his base unit. Those base units and understandings will be within his Money Management Method.

Why are base units so important?  Because your base units are your chances to go forward with advantages.  If you just want to always "go for it" all you really need to do is, just take your base unit and multiply it by how many attempts you have the funds to engage the casino with.  For example, a negative martingale $100-$200-$400-$800-$1,600-$3,200, etc., depending on the max table limit at your casino. So if you believe in and want to have a negative Martingale plan as part of your MMM and are willing to wager a $100 base unit, and you desire to wager five negative progressions, you will have to have $6,300 buy-in ready to risk. 

Taking the above into consideration, say you do desire your MMM to allow you 20 times to profit off your session buy-in risk capital, in my opinion your MMM bank roll should be $126,000. Your MMM would allow you 5% buyins, therefore allowing you 20 chances before busting out your bankroll. Yes bankrolls and buy-ins are different for most all of us.  But the 5% buy-ins of a bankroll I do believe most experienced players will tell you, are to your advantage and pretty much reasonable with the way bankrolls should be the governing factor of session buy-ins, etc.  All of which would come into play with the player's drawdown.

As far as flat betting, you can use the same scenarios, $100 base unit and figure out how many wins you would keep or possibly parlay up, then at what point would you stop due to too many losses or even a positive win amount.

Ref Martingale betting.  It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.

Ref Flat betting.  It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units.  However, if one has several hands that lost in flat betting, the make up of the drawdown is totally in favor of the casino and the player will be subjecting himself to a textbook grinding-down situation he normally can not come out of.

Personally I do not endorse negative Martingales or flat betting as a game plan. In my experience there is just way too much risk with compounding wins to make winning anything sizable. Negative Martingales and flat betting will not be to a players advantage outside of employing them occasionally for a few hands.

I do engage with and have written about it extensively 1-3-2-6 or some variation of it. As well as 1-2-4-8 or 1-2-4. Full and consecutive parlays of a base unit also known as consecutive positive progressions. With these or some variations of these in mind, I would take my base unit, let's say $100 and multiply how many chances I desire my game plan to be established with. Say I do desire 24 chances.  By the way, which I really do like 24 chances, I would need $2,400 for my buy-in risk capital. That $2,400 should be coming from a bank roll of $48,000. Thus my bank roll affords me 20 sessions with not a single winning session to replace my buy-in back to its original bank roll and pocket what's left over of the wins. 

That way you are accepting and expecting drawdowns and playing within reasonable expectations to excel.  You cannot play believing the game of Baccarat will have its published coin flip 50/50 fallacy and its the easiest game to win at.  Here is a tip for you.  Baccarat is the easiest game to win, however it is also the easiest game to lose. 

Again, drawdowns must be comfortable to the player because they eventually will afford advantages to the player with changes, longevity and profitability during the session. It must also be considered as vital and risk capital taken in consideration drawdowns are inevitable during most all sessions at some point. Kind of like membership dues, an amount to get in and the results may or may not follow or be to the members advantage. 

One final thing. Part of a rock solid MMM but also part of your drawdown that hopefully turns successful during each session. And that is, governing your wins. My biggest advantage I believe that I have engaged in and became reliant on, is my 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd incorporated into my MMM with my winning sessions. 

Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700.  Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. Next thought would be to have a 1-2-4-8. Again a $100 win four times, nets me $1,500. Depending on table limits, those base units might be $200-$500 or even $1,000 depending on what your casino allows, what your buy-in in bankroll allows and what you were comfortable with. 

Upon profitability at some point I would engage in my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd. For those of you oblivious to what that is, it is 1/3rd of the sizable winnings remaining in my buy-in stack in front of me, 1/3rd in my pocket locked up and the remaining 1/3rd of the win for reserve. The reserve might be a second chance if the session goes horribly bad or it might just end up as locked up or pre-destined for something outside of gaming related, etc. Your choice of the above would apply any way you like. But part of your plan and when things fall to your advantage, you will automatically take them and keep them while always remembering you were subject to drawdown when you were not winning. Or the point you get to be able to win.

Although the above is heavenly an MMM item, it has to be also consciously incorporated into your current play and coming out of a drawdown and into a winning mode.

Play smart!  Play safe!

#24
General Discussion / Merry Christmas To All
December 16, 2024, 01:04:35 PM
A very Merry Christmas to all with a following Happy New Year and of course, large amounts of success in all you tackle and take on!
#25
Alrelax's Blog / Great Conversation Last Night
December 15, 2024, 12:44:53 PM
Saturday night, after a Shoe of play a few of us regulars went to the steakhouse with a generous comp from the floor manager.  Steaks and shrimp cocktails all around.  Beautiful glasses of cognac at the start. 

Here is the outcome of our discussion and what we all should seriously adhere to for each session:

Prepare for the worst, expect failure.  But don't stress and seriously consider your buyin risk capital.  Believe in yourself, not the Shoe to match your desires.  Deploy your knowledge and experience while you "Go for it" and "Do it".

The luxury of experience is knowledge.

The outcome of NEW EXPERIENCE is almost always 'Spiff-Balling'.

Play visual patterns/trends with a short attempt to capture 2 to 4, possibly 5 hits in a small section of the Shoe divided up into 4 sections.  (FYI, I have written extensively about 'sections')

You need to play chess while the others are playing checkers.