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Messages - Blue_Angel

#391
Since the creation of the roulette wheel and the foundation of roulette game,knowledge around gambling has been evolved.This is a fact which is hard to deny.

However the rules of the game remain the same as used to be approximately 1 and a half centuries ago.
This leads to the conclusion that if something remains static,while the opposite side progressing,that eventually will overcome the static side.

If my conclusion is true,then why the majority of roulette gamblers cannot overcome the HE in order to become overall/long term winners?

This is an accurate objection,however,there is an answer.
For all the long term losers there must be a common element which they share in order to be,all of them,in the negative side.
You might wonder what could it be?
So many different people are using a lot of different approaches to the game,so how could be even 1 mutual element among them?
The answer is quite simple,perhaps they are using different strategies,methods,systems,money managements,but there is however 1 single mistake which is the same for all of them!

What is it,can you think of something?
There are systems/methods which are more conservative,persistent than others and another category which includes the more aggressive and less stable systems/methods.

I'm not advocating either side,the first would gain less profit more times and it's going to lose more money less times,while the second will gain more profit less times and it's going to lose less money more times.
In this generalization both of the approaches seems equal in the end,but there is something else which,both of them,have in common.

All of them are winning from time to time (and losing),what it changes is the frequency of the winning and losing sessions,as well the amounts being won or lost,but none of them could always win or lose.
Let's face it,you can not avoid defeat,but you could minimize it if you include it in your plans.
How could someone minimize the loses? Here comes the important part so pay attention!
No matter what method of play and/or system you are using,it cannot be an overall winner. Why?
Let me remind you the opening of this post; "...if something remains static,while the opposite side progressing,that eventually will overcome the static side."

Now let's place your system in the static side and the roulette results in the progressing,evolving,changing,dynamic side...which side do you think has the upper hand?
Why you think so?

There is no system/method which could satisfy all the conditions one might encounter on the ever changing roulette outcomes,every system could win just once or more,but none always because no matter the approach,it's static,passive,while the outcomes are not.

Therefore it cannot adapt to the new conditions which are not always the same,for every "left" there is a "right",for every "up" there is a "down"...and so on
Thus if you apply a strategy which supports only one side of the "coin",sooner or later you are going to lose.
This leads to the conclusion that there is the need for a flexible strategy which could been adjusted to any kind of outcomes. Is it possible? Of course!

Let's begin with the definition of such strategy,shall we?
The very first thing we have to discard is to use the same approach all the time!
So there must be,at least, two quite different methods.The alternatives provide us flexibility,flexibility means an ability to adjust to the ever changing outcomes.

How one could know before hand which of the two (or more) methods would work on any given session?
One word: pre-qualification!
You have to pre-qualify the game before you sit down at the chair of the table.

Let's say you have some certain conditions to meet regarding your two (or more) alternatives,see if you were betting both of them simultaneously,which one would gain the most? Option A or option B??
The pre-qualification period doesn't have to be too long,you have to act before it's too late.
Yet you might oppose my reasoning by stating: "By the time I finish pre-qualification and begin betting,what I saw has changed because it didn't last long"
This might not be the case always,but yet again could happen,that's why you should have an alternative for applying both of your methods/systems simultaneously.

You might think: "By applying two quite different systems simultaneously,how I could gain a profit? Because when one is winning the other is losing"
The answer is to increase very conservatively the winning side,while the losing one to remain on the same levels until it starts winning.

Whether you decide to select 2 or more approaches,it's up to you!
Whether you decide to apply 1 approach at a time or not,it's up to you!
What it matters most of all is the main principle, flexibility provides endurance and endurance provides the gain!
"Conquers the one who endures"
#392
I don't believe in luck, I believe in opportunities and life is full of them...
Allow me to give my own definition about luck;
Luck is when the good preparation meets the proper opportunity...!
Just think about it for a minute,what we call "luck"?
Isn't it the circumstances which are playing a very important role in our lives?

Circumstances may allow or may not to achieve what you deserve...so if the half part is to be ready till the opportunity arises,the rest is the circumstance,chance,opportunity or whatever you want to call it.
And I'm not talking only about gambling...in a way,life is a big gamble.
The way I think casinos is certainly NOT my enemy,but an enterprise which is giving me the chance to claim what I deserve.

When I'm winning,I'm not receiving the casinos money,but other gambler's money.
The casino is just a mediator,an arbitrary authority to provide a nice,comfortable venue and because of their expenses (salaries,taxes,security,service...etc) have to acquire a percentage of the total action,which I found very reasonable.
In gamble like in life many people want,have desires,but very few can achieve what they really want,the rest just compromise with their circumstances...

Some say gambling is a big problem because of the addiction,I say gambling is NOT necessarily a problem,BUT lack of moderation IS the problem and as a matter of fact,lack of moderation is problem for EVERY asset of life!
Even "harmless" things like watching TV and eating could be proved FATAL with lack of moderation!
If you ask me why I gamble,I would respond: It's the sense of independence,freedom,the sense of achievement and success through something NOT ordinary,nor easy.

My mentality receives difficulty as a really good challenge,an opportunity to achieve what very few can.
I'm also positive person from nature,when others say impossible,I say "why not...let's give it a try!"
In time,my experience became the equalizer of my positiveness and my realism and that's the KEY, BALANCE!
This is my approach in gambling,but I really do understand when others consider gambling as social disease and gamblers as lepers...

It's the same people who are considering money as the source of all evils!
Money is NOT evil,some people are...money has no will of its own,people have and some of them are willing to kill,steal,rob,blackmail and deceive in order to gain it.
So who is the evil after all,the money or some people?!

Guns don't kill,people do...but it's always is easier to find a "skip goat" than to face reality!
Gambling is not a disease,but it could be many different things for different people...perhaps for some could be their way to realize their dreams and deepest desires.
While for some others could be a disaster...both statements could be true!!
You might wonder,how could two extremely different statements could be true?

The answer is in the notion: "The world you see is the world you be..."
In other words if you believe that something is negative,then it'll be for YOU because you believe so!
Our beliefs forming our reality before our eyes,faith is not to demand proof as a way to believe,but quite the opposite...first you believe,believe in yourself and then,and ONLY then,you can see the results!
#393
General Discussion / Re: 30 out of 100
July 24, 2016, 08:39:35 AM
I have read many posts including this forum,many of you focus on progressions or in other words how much to bet, a betting sequence which usually is "negative".
This fact alone means 2 things in my point of view:

1) No matter how much you are willing to risk, it's NOT going to happen because if you can't win with flat bets, most probably you won't win with any kind of progression, you only prolonging the unavoidable...

2) Increasing bets after losing results it's a very BAD timing...and after all gambling is all about timing!
Think about it for a moment, all events are certain to occur after some time, but what separates winners from losers is the timing and NOT how much money you are willing to risk.

Too much emphasis for a secondary gambling element, the money management and the progression of the bets, without ever considering two crucial elements; When and Where

By betting 1 Euro or 1 million of Euros in a single bet, actually you are NOT changing the odds, money alone dictates only how much you could win or lose any given moment, what makes you winner or loser is NOT being determined by the money factor, but by Where and When.

So in my point of view is futile to discuss about progressions, there are plenty of systems and/or methods out there which their only concern is about how much someone has to bet and with a specific order, usually after losing, thus negative and I believe there is very good reason to call this kind of progressions this way (negative).

Another negative element of the "negative" progressions is that are NOT realistic...
Let me explain you what I mean, let's say you start betting and you win a few bets and eventually you find yourself in what we call a string of unfortunate results or a losing streak if you prefer.
Then you raise your bets gradually, no matter how much aggressively or conservatively, trying to overcome the losing streak but you don't appreciate your past wins, no matter how many wins before you find yourself in the uncomfortable position of a losing streak.

A realistic approach would be to predetermine a very realistic MINIMUM expectation...
For example, I expect to win 30 EC bets out of 100, if the results would be better than this then even better!
By saying 30 out of 100 results, does NOT indicates with which turn,sequence this 30 wins are going to occur within 100 outcomes.

This is the point where almost all of the negative progressions fail, because you are disregarding the previous wins instead of considering the totality of the results as a whole...

What if there was a progression which could be applied on any bet section of the table and/or wheel layout by predetermine the minimum expectation according the probability and deviation of the particular section?
Would that be interesting?

I would like to present you an example;
Let's say I'm fond of the so called "outside bets" and I choose Red because it's my favorite color.
My minimum expectation is to win 30 bets out of 100, would that be realistic, what do you think?

The results could be the following:
(B=Black, R=Red, Z=Zero)

B , B , R , B , R , B , R , R , R , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , Z , R , R , B , R , R , R , B , R , R , R , R , B , B , R , R , R , R , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , B , R , R , B , R , R , R , B , R , R , B , R , R , R , R , B , R  <----- 30 wins achieved, end of session

In the above hypothetical example, the "event horizon" of 100 results in total has not been reached since we concluded our goal in 77 outcomes.

The betting sequence:
(beginning from the top left and towards the right and down to the next line)
(L=Lose, W=Win, 1 unit=10 Euros)

L -10 , L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, L -20, W -10, W 0, W +10, L 0, L -10, L -20, L -30, L -40, L -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -130, L -140, W -130, W -120, L -130, W -120, W -110, W -100, L -110, W -100, W -90, W -80, W -70, L -80, L -90, W -80, W -70, W -60, W -50, L -60, L -70, L -80, L -90, L -100, L -110, L -120, L -135, L -150, L -165, L -180, L -200, L -220, L -240, L -265, L -290, L -315, L -345, L -375, L -410, W -375, W -340, L -375, W -335, W -295, W -255, L -295, W -250, W -205, L -250, W -195, W -140, W -85, W -30, L -85, W +5

As you might have noticed,the lowest bankroll reached -410 (41 units) followed by 35 bet (3.5 units), this indicates that roughly 50 units bankroll would be sufficient for such session.
Also worthwhile to notice that the highest bet was 90 Euros (9 units) just before the last win/result.

This was an example of 77 outcomes from which 30 have came our way and 47 loses.
It's not the easiest session you may encounter, isn't it?
Yet again, the progression formula managed to gain the upper hand even after much more negative results and two looooong losing streaks of 15 and 20.

However, there is an "Achilles heel" to this progression and this is the last bets...the more you approach towards the minimum expectation goal, the more vulnerable you become because the bets have to raise in order to achieve an overall profit within the minimum expectation (winning margin)

The progression formula is:
negative balance (if any) divided by minimum expectation (winning margin) divided by odds payout, equals with the next bet on the progression

In the above example, the formula would be:
balance / 30 / 1  (1 to 1 odds payout)
You could implement the same progression formula for every bet selection.

There is an extra, optional condition you may consider to apply in order to avoid dramatically increasing the bets if you ever encounter many loses near the end of the minimum expectation goal, this is to stop betting after one loss and wait for just 1 virtual win, whenever happens, then you would continue where you left off immediately after the virtual win.
You might think that this way is missing every first win after each losing streak, but what you are saving is much more than just missing one win because there are MANY losing streaks of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10...etc

As my closing point, I'd like to remind you the way I open this thread;
No matter how much, nor the progression you are using, couldn't make you winner if you don't have a method to determine WHERE and WHEN to bet!
#394
General Discussion / Divide and Conquer!
July 24, 2016, 08:23:49 AM
Perhaps a better question would be: "HOW I could win more times than what I'm losing?" rather than how much I should bet in order to win.

By increasing and/or decreasing bets,you are NOT changing the odds.
By saying that I expect to win 30 bets out of 100, this does NOT determine in which order I'm going to have my wins and loses.

Those 2 major facts are the main reasons why most of the progressions fail in the long term, just because they aim to win in a very certain way, a specific turn, sequence.
Besides, any kind of progression is secondary element, the fundamental always must be HOW I could win more times than my losing ones, in other words a method of bet selection.


An example about the turn of expected wins:
Let's say I have the very modest expectation to win 30 bets out of 100 in total.
Would this be the same for our progression to experience 70 loses during the first 70 spins and 30 wins on the remaining in comparison with 10 wins during the first 30 spins,then 10 more till the 60th spin and another 10 winning bets from 91st till 100th spin??


It's a question everyone has to answer,who's considering applying any kind of progression!
#395
Many years have passed since the foundation of the game and still people around the world are in their individual quest for discovering the holy grail.
We have to ask ourselves; Is it realistic expectation or is it vanity??

What exactly do you expect to find and what is the definition of reality for you?
Along the long path of history knowledge has been evolved, thus perception has been shaped accordingly.

When perception changes, your reality is changing..."the world you be is the world you see..."
By understanding a partial reality, I'm not influencing the whole of what is real, nor any of its parts, what I actually change is my angle of perception, in other words the level of my consciousness/awareness.

While no single existing system has perpetually succeed to cease all of the so-called "loopholes", each one of all those "loopholes" has been blocked by at least one system.
Thus, by maintaining a two dimensional mentality in a three dimensional world, you are framing yourself.
The champions of mainstream theory support that each and every result is independent.
Probably you have heard: "roulette has no memory" and every time I recall it I laugh very hard!

So,if you ask me, I'd respond that there is correlation between outcomes and this does NOT have to do with MEMORY!
So who's right and who's wrong??
My answer is EVERYONE and NO ONE!

Everyone partially, up to a certain extend, BUT no one as a WHOLE!
In my point of view, no one can comprehend the COMPLETE "picture" because it's too big and regarding your approach you see ONLY a different part of the WHOLE.
If we were to interpret this generic theory in roulette terms, one could not satisfy all parameters with a single method.

Like Greek ancient philosopher once said: "The only constant (in universe) is the change (evolution)
So when some see only randomness in action, I see the chain re-actions unfolding before my eyes...
I hope to contribute for a greater degree of understanding the events/facts.
#396
General Discussion / Capitalizing on streaks
July 24, 2016, 08:02:10 AM
Hello everyone!
I have created a progression for all even chance (approximately) bets.
Not only does ride the waves of victory after victory but ALSO,that's VERY important,protects your profits by not placing everything back at risk.
So,let's see how it goes:

1) bet 2 units: if win +2 if lose -2

That's the ONLY real risk,the first level of betting,most of the time you will your first bet with a bit of luck and then you could capitalize your winnings RISK-FREE!

2) bet 1 units: if win +3 (total)/ lose +1

3) bet 2 units: if win +5 / lose +1

4) bet 3 units: if win +8 / lose +2

5) bet 4 units: if win +12 / lose +4

6) bet 5 units: if win +17 / lose +7

I wouldn't recommend you to proceed further than 6 consecutive wins,even a streak of 6 is hard to get,but since this progression is conservative,you won't risk at any point your winnings.
I have use it to play for hours without losing my bankroll,while waiting for the streak of 6 consecutive wins.
If you give it a try,you should notice that losses are small and wins becoming big by the time if you have the patience and disclipine.
Your comments would be welcome.
#397
Quote from: ozon on February 21, 2016, 04:52:03 PM
After 4 loses wait  for virtual win.

Quote from Bayes:

The progression is based on starting from a base of 1 unit and multiplying by around 10% - 12% to get the value of the next stake. Here is a version I just coded which is very similar to the Holloway progression using a percentage of 11.5% which gives approximately the same values and the same number of steps.

The error in the Holloway progression comes from rounding. You can see the same thing here: The middle column is the calculation unrounded and in the right column the numbers have been round DOWN to the nearest whole number. Notice that from step 27 (18u) to step 28 (21u) there is an increase of 3 units, but from step 28 to step 29 (23u) there is an increase of only 2 units!

Depending on how the rounding is done there will usually be some error like this, but it won't make a lot of difference. You could always change the values in the Holloway progression slightly to make the steps between values consistent.

1   1.115       1
2   1.243       1
3   1.386       1
4   1.546       1
5   1.723       1
6   1.922       1
7   2.143       2
8   2.389       2
9   2.664       2
10   2.970       2
11   3.311       3
12   3.692       3
13   4.117       4
14   4.590       4
15   5.118       5
16   5.707       5
17   6.363       6
18   7.095       7
19   7.911       7
20   8.821       8
21   9.835       9
22   10.966      10
23   12.227      12
24   13.633      13
25   15.201      15
26   16.949      16
27   18.898      18
28   21.072      21 << 3 from 18 to 21
29   23.495      23 << 2 from 21 to 23
30   26.197      26
31   29.209      29
32   32.568      32
33   36.314      36
34   40.490      40
35   45.146      45
36   50.338      50
37   56.127      56
38   62.581      62
39   69.778      69
40   77.803      77
41   86.750      86
42   96.726      96
43   107.850     107
44   120.253     120
45   134.082     134
46   149.501     149


In order to use such progression properly you must start with 10 units bet, therefore its increments of plus/minus 1 unit will be equivalent to 10%.
Instead of 10 you could use 25 as base bet with 2.5 as equivalent to 10 %, or 50 with increments of 5 as 10 %

I think for the most gamblers wouln't be so practical regardless of the effectiveness of the progression.
#398
Quote from: Sputnik on July 21, 2016, 06:47:45 AM
Poor understanding and do the most basics wrong.

For example if i have 14 contra 1 event - then we know for the next 24 events we will recive at least 4 hits - we know this for a fact.
But is not the same as having a crystal ball which tell you what will happen in the furthure - but it is the expectation and probability after several million simulations and you will probably not break a new World record you time at the table.

So you can not assume getting more hits to recover from 20 loses and 2 wins - that is a false positive and why his method does not work.
And his assumption is wrong about waiting for 3.0 SD - that is just one example - they can grow to 3.5 or 4.0 or 4.5 SD without betting - you just observe.
Betting against 4.5 SD is silly and you can not recover with any existing staking plan.

The hole concept he present is wrong from the beginning.
And we can get 3.0 SD and above without betting at anytime without Charting and tracking or wait.
You only attack when there is a change present, so any SD can grow without you do nothing.


But like this you are an observer, not a player.

Unless you are using another method as your primary, what you suggest has no practical value.
#399
Quote from: Albalaha on July 21, 2016, 02:34:55 AM
              Which book of maths you refer that tell u it is only 3.0 SD?
65 hits of an EC in 200 spins is 4.5 SD below mean, one of the toughest situation ever recorded in ECs.

It is easy to win? Show us how u can win this easily playing every spin.


His tactic doesn't bet every spin but only after 3 SD

To wait to happen 3 SD without betting is very boring, it's like waiting for 15 reds in a row before to bet black by doubling up.
#400
Roulette Forum / Re: Why I fail in the long RUN ?
July 20, 2016, 09:35:27 AM
It's certainly not out there, somewhere you could find it like a forum, it's private highly regarded.

Just do your own homework, it could be worth it!
#402
Roulette Forum / Re: Why I fail in the long RUN ?
July 20, 2016, 04:57:21 AM
Quote from: TheLaw on July 19, 2016, 06:59:19 PM
http://www.rp2.ru/sys_96.php (needs google translate)

Like this?

No, this is not.

Actually I 've checked it out, nothing new, just about biased numbers...
#403
I cannot find the 11th harsh  session, where  is  it?
#404
Roulette Forum / Re: Why I fail in the long RUN ?
July 19, 2016, 01:15:03 PM
There are more efficient progressions than labby...have you ever heard the "golden pyramid"?
#405
Roulette Forum / Re: Why I fail in the long RUN ?
July 18, 2016, 09:02:10 AM
Quote from: BetJack on July 18, 2016, 08:57:15 AM
I write this because with my restricted brain's hard for me to understand some things
Let's try to imagine the long run or short run
made by many spins
let's imagine variance
Let for explanation of the variance we divide it into intervals of 1 SD
and we do not know an interval of 1 SD how many spins is
then we will have a line graphic
and we do not know what form will have the graphics
that which we know is that the variation in the graph will be no larger than the 6 SD
and  is not dependent on how long or short intervals are the graph will look
and certainly we do not know when it will start to descend on down or going up





good! and from here what we can do

Albalaha says : I know within what limits the variation is changing so and my management of the bets will change as well

Sputnik says : We monitor and observe and attack using the virtual limit of 6 in our advantage so we victory

this is my understanding of their statements

BETJACK




What we know for sure is only what happened, the rest are merely estimations, it can be correct or wrong.

But try not to cost you a lot when you are wrong, while you are right take as much as possible.

One wrong cannot be corrected by another wrong...