Quote from: ozon on July 17, 2016, 03:55:38 PM
If you play against RNG, even BV no zero you see this type of sessions, they are bordering on virtual limits, RNG play against you.

That's why I've stopped playing RNG's and air ball machines, I'm traditional on this one.

By the way, I've made a profit of 12 units from that fictitious session with max drawdown of 245 units and 64 units max bet.

3 hits for an EC  within 37 successive outcomes ONLY in Albahala's world!!

Quote from: Albalaha on June 21, 2016, 03:33:26 AM
Although, Positive gambling module takes care of 90% of the harshest sessions possible to take them out of placed bets but even after all the safeguards, one can still witness tough and bad stretches in EC betting. Let us see how the different harsh sessions were dealt by Positive Gambling Module, I call it PGM.
Note: All Ls and Ws were played ones.

Session 1:

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W

            It was one of the worst sessions possible. 151 Losses and 89 Wins only. No streak to help much.
Max bet=43 units.
Max DD= -203
End=+25

Question, if you were playing that session backwards (from bottom to top), would you still have the same results?

That's what I call reverse engineering!

How to help you if you don't explain what you are doing?!

Speaking generally, you are expecting the impossible, you present some results, God only knows from where, then you expect someone to wipe your own behind!

Even if someone could solve your own stuff, why would he/she be compeled to do so??!

And since when betting selection is irrelevant from betting?!
Choosing Black from Red could make the whole difference between winners and losers!

Don't get me wrong but I consider these kind of topics pointless.

Quote from: Albalaha on March 24, 2016, 03:26:21 PM
You have nothing that even work slightly. First you proposed a delayed martingale that will go till infinite without winning at one point of time. Anybody can simulate that. Now you came up with even worse idea that can easily lead you to a loss of few millions in just one bad drag.

               Just one bad win followed by many losses will cause irreparable losses. Reverse engineering a progression in some particular favorite situations led us to martingale and labby type failed ideas already, do not make more comical versions of that.

I am talking of a progression that doesn't lose too huge while a bad stretch like 66/200 is encountered but later when things go near normal, we stand to win. That is the core of this debate.

You don't know what I am capable so you are not in position to judge my abilities.

Nothing can be more hilarious than your definite statements, you sound like you already know everything but if you would then you wouldn't post such ridiculous comments.

If YOU are not able to do something this doesn't mean that nobody else cannot do it, except if you think that you are God!

You see, reality doesn't starts and ends at your own abilities, you are just a drop in the ocean!

In practical terms nobody would sit and play for 1000 results in a go, thus not the best of approaches.

Actually there is no need for someone to bet 1000 times in order to profit, a minimum expectation could be for lower totals such as 37,74,111,148...etc

Fail to meet minimum expectation during first checkpoint interval and you shall proceed to the next one.

By establishing regular intervals sooner or later at some point the balance will become positive, it's just matter of time.

The real challenge of all progressions is the win/loss distribution, aggressive ones could be busted within few spins from a mild distribution anomaly, very mild progressions could never be able to turn things around.

Therefore something well balanced needed with the ability to be flexible in order to adapt any possible distribution.

Quote from: Albalaha on March 24, 2016, 11:20:33 AM
It will indeed bust as HP Johnson does. If you guys look at my sessions done, all big bets came at the last since the creator of the progression had prior knowledge of the number of wins, so it tried to win back all at last with even thousands of chips. It is as much foolish progression as martingale and doesn't help at all.
                    HP Johnson was too much boasted upon roulette30 forum and none cared to understand the fact that it is merely a flat betting to begin with, a normal labouchere in the middle and it ends with a martingale that if went a little bad could take millions of chips to win one. It just needs a bad beginning and a bad last win to doom without any limit.

My verdict: It is a fool's gold. Even worse than BA's delayed martingale.

If someone tries to make good an unfortunate last win that sucked thousands of units without winning, it won't work either.

I agree with what you said but you forget that I was the first who warned you about the ''Achilles heel'' of my progression.

I've found the solution but this is a different story...I've already said enough without being obliged to do so.

A clever person could read between the lines and discover what I've found.

Quote from: Albalaha on March 22, 2016, 02:57:42 AM
Paulnewman's method can be coded in excel and verified as it is mathematical. BA's method is similar but why ME changes periodically is a mystery which only he can describe best.

@programmers, please try.

Didn't I said that every time the bet raises so does the ME?

''Every time I win my bet I deduct from the minimum expectation the same amount I just won from my bet, if I raise my bet to 2 units I'm multiplying the remaining wins by 2, if I raise my bet to 3 units I multiply the remaining wins by 3 and so on...''

You have not paid attention and make me repeating myself.

I've posted mine before user "Paulnewman" did on 15/04/2015, so that user copied mine and Kavouras copied his.

My first topic on 12/04/2015regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=257.msg2556#msg2556

My second topic on 18/04/2015 regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=267.0

However it's not exactly the same because the other progression must bet decimal amounts while 1 unit could only be divided when your initial bet is 10 units, this means tenfold bankroll for the same results!

Quote from: BetJack on March 21, 2016, 04:50:16 PM
The system that always wins but little ...

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=260.msg1949#msg1949

Quote
After reading the discussion on Johnson progression and Belgian, it was created a similar system.

The system starts from the following assumptions:
-the selection of the spin does NOT exist (but if the players think they have one, so much better and win more easily)
-it comes to exploiting a financial strategy that, necessarily, must be very sophisticated or even very complicated;
-in 100 spins on the EC, it is impossible for a player NOT win at least 22 spins;
-the yield is 4%(not very high) of strokes played.

So in a pattern of registration there will be about 100 spins, losers spins (78) CP, surely winning spins (22) CV and the winning goal (4) OV.
CP, CV and OV are linked together by a formula that indicates the bet after each spin.
So, you can imagine, every attack closes at the 22nd win into 100 spins. It could be at the 100° spin (bad luck!) Or after 22 spins if we win them all in a row (Lucky!).

BET = losers spins (CP) 78 + Objective of winning (OV) 20 (ie 4 pieces of 5 €), all divided by the winning spins (CV) 22.
The first bet will be of 5 euro (approximately in excess).
If you win the next BET is 78 + 15 (3 pieces from 5 euro), all divided by 21.
If you lose instead the BET is 77 + 25 (4 pieces of OV, plus 5 euro lost), all divided by 22 and so on.

Three suggestions for simplify things:
- Play in the differential mode, if possible;
- Do not play the system "continuously". Therefore, at each winning a piece, then starts again. The yield is still 4% of strokes played, and the games will be less time duration;
- Winning goal (OV), the formula must be ZERO! Yes, Zero, AWESOME! Why?
Explanation: it is clear that in 100 spins, the system closes as soon as you have reached the 22nd winning.
If the 22nd winning happens at the 100th spin, we will be in equal position after maybe we lost 4 hours at the table for anything, but it does not practically happen.
If the 22nd win happens to the 50th or 60th spin (very often!) or even earlier, however, we will have a win that will always be equal, ON AVERAGE, the difference between winning spins and lost spins.

I open a parenthesis, that will be useful later when you try to build your own system.
If instead of playing on simple chances,EC , you want apply such formula on dozens:
BET: CP + OG, all divided for CV and then multiplied for 2(the dozen pays 2 pieces), 11 would be multiplied if we play on triplets, 35 multiplied if we play on plein number, etc.

It is important to set the correct parameters of winning and losing spins.
In the case of Belgian system, it would used as parameters that in 200 spins i expect to win 65 spins(because i know that at least black or red will reach that level) and 135 lost spins.
CP=135    OG=0 or what you prefer   CV=65
First bet is: 135/65 = 2 euro

I hope i gave you some good idea.

[end quote]

I've posted mine before user "Paulnewman" did on 15/04/2015, so that user copied mine and Kavouras copied his.

My first topic on 12/04/2015regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=257.msg2556#msg2556

My second topic on 18/04/2015 regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=267.0

However it's not exactly the same because the other progression must bet decimal amounts while 1 unit could only be divided when your initial bet is 10 units, this means tenfold bankroll for the same results!

I thought it was pretty obvious the way it works.

I don't share something like this if I don't have something better...

So this betting plan begins by defining the minimum expectation for any given bet selection within a specific amount of results.

If we  know the minimum possible expectation then we use it in combination with the respective payout of our selection.

The payout and the minimum expectation are creating the progression, the progression I've used in the above examples.

The second example was smoother, milder than the first because the minimum expectation moved towards the probability, in other words its deviation declined as the total of spins increased.
This is what we call regression towards the mean and both of the above examples are VERY extreme occasions!

Let's say that 66 wins out of 200 results is the minimum possible for any EC, 66/200 is roughly 1/3, BUT it's different to use the one third of 30 results and different of 300 or even 3000.

As the total of outcomes increases events tend to average out as their probability indicates, in small samples such as 30 or 50 results we could experience huge deviations from probability.
This is what we call law of large numbers.

Back to my mathematical progression, I prefer to use a minimum expectation of a relatively large total of results because I know that sooner or later I'm going to achieve my minimum expectation.
To be more specific, I believe that this total should be between 222 to 333 outcomes if we are talking about EC on roulette.
222 spins are 6 x 37 and 333 are 9 x 37, anywhere within those spins even the most extreme deviation can be tamed as the time passes by.
So we have to be careful and conservative in the beginning and act more drastically as time is on our side.

If I establish my minimum expectation on 100 wins out of 300 results most likely I'm going to get these 100 wins before I bet 300 times, by the time I achieve my 100th win I must be in positive balance.
Every time I win my bet I deduct from the minimum expectation the same amount I just won from my bet, if I raise my bet to 2 units I'm multiplying the remaining wins by 2, if I raise my bet to 3 units I multiply the remaining wins by 3 and so on...

However there is an "Achilles heel" in my progression, if I'm in negative balance and the remaining wins are too few, like 1 or 2, at that time the bets would increase rapidly like Martingale.
If the last expected win is far from the before last win and on the same time I'm in negative balance my bets would increase like Martingale.
If this happens during I'm in positive balance, it's not problem because I can stop right there and restart from scratch.

Of course I've found a solution for the other case but I'm not going to share it with you, I've already told you enough.

R=result B=bet T=total ME=minimum expectation

R         B          T         ME
L            1          -1         66
L            1          -2         66
L            1          -3         66
L            1          -4         66
W           1          -3         65
L            1          -4         65
L            1          -5         65
L            1          -6         65
W           1          -5         64
L            1          -6         64
L            1          -7         64
W           1          -6         63
L            1          -7         63
L            1          -8         63
L            1          -9         63
L            1         -10         63
L            1         -11         63
L            1         -12         63
L            1         -13         63
L            1         -14         63
W           1         -13         62
L            1         -14         62
W           1         -13         61
L            1         -14         61
L            1         -15         61
W           1         -14         60
L            1         -15         60
W           1         -14         59
L            1         -15         59
W           1         -14         58
L            1         -15         58
L            1         -16         58
W           1         -15         57
W           1         -14         56
L            1         -15         56
L            1         -16         56
L            1         -17         56
W           1         -16         55
L            1         -17         55
L            1         -18         55
L            1         -19         55
L            1         -20         55
W           1         -19         54
L            1         -20         54
L            1         -21         54
L            1         -22         54
W           1         -21         53
L            1         -22         53
L            1         -23         53
L            1         -24         53
W           1         -23         52
L            1         -24         52
L            1         -25         52
W           1         -24         51
L            1         -25         51
L            1         -26         51
W           1         -25         50
L            1         -26         50
L            1         -27         50
L            1         -28         50
L            1         -29         50
L            1         -30         50
L            1         -31         50
L            1         -32         50
L            1         -33         50
L            1         -34         50
L            1         -35         50
L            1         -36         50
W           1         -35         49
L            1         -36         49
L            1         -37         49
W           1         -36         48
W           1         -35         47
L            1         -36         47
L            1         -37         47
L            1         -38         47
W           1         -37         46
L            1         -38         46
L            1         -39         46
L            1         -40         46
L            1         -41         46
W           1         -40         45
L            1         -41         45
L            1         -42         45
W           1         -41         44
L            1         -42         44
L            1         -43         44
L            1         -44         44
W           2         -42         86
L            2         -44         86
L            2         -46         86
L            2         -48         86
L            2         -50         86
W           2         -48         84
L            2         -50         84
L            2         -52         84
L            2         -54         84
W           2         -52         82
L            2         -54         82
W           2         -52         80
L            2         -54         80
L            2         -56         80
W           2         -54         78
L            2         -56         78
L            2         -58         78
W           2         -56         76
L            2         -58         76
W           2         -56         74
L            2         -58         74
W           2         -56         72
L            2         -58         72
L            2         -60         72
W           2         -58         70
L            2         -60         70
L            2         -62         70
W           2         -60         68
L            2         -62         68
L            2         -64         68
W           2         -62         66
L            2         -64         66
L            2         -66         66
L            3         -69         99
W           3         -66         96
L            3         -69         96
L            3         -72         96
W           3         -69         93
L            3         -72         93
L            3         -75         93
W           3         -72         90
L            3         -75         90
L            3         -78         90
W           3         -75         87
L            3         -78         87
W           3         -75         84
L            3         -78         84
L            3         -81         84
W           3         -78         81
L            3         -81         81
L            4         -85         108
W           4         -81         104
L            4         -85         104
L            4         -89         104
L            4         -93         104
W           4         -89         100
L            4         -93         100
W           4         -89         96
L            4         -93         96
L            4         -97         96
W           5         -92         115
W           5         -87         110
L            5         -92         110
L            5         -97         110
L            5         -102       110
L            5         -107       110
L            5         -112       110
W           6         -106       126
L            6         -112       126
W           6         -106       120
L            6         -112       120
W           6         -106       114
L            6         -112       114
W           6         -106       108
L            6         -112       108
L            7         -119       126
W           7         -112       119
L            7         -119       119
L            8         -127       136
W           8         -119       128
W           8         -111       120
L            8         -119       120
L            8         -127       120
W           9         -118       126
L            9         -127       126
L           10        -137       140
L           10        -147       140
W          11        -136       143
W          11        -125       132
L           11        -136       132
W          12        -124       132
L           12        -136       132
L           13        -149       143
W          14        -135       140
L           14        -149       140
W          15        -134       135
L           15        -149       135
L           17        -166       153
W          19        -147       152
L           19        -166       152
L           21        -187       168
W          24        -163       168
W          24        -139       144
L           24        -163       144
L           28        -191       168
W          32        -159       160
L           32        -191       160
W          39        -152       156
W          39        -113       117
W          39        -74         78
W          39        -35         39
W          39        +4          0

Cheers!

Quote from: Albalaha on March 21, 2016, 03:42:27 AM
Very true and this is what we need to work upon as a progression of long run. Let's see if  your methodology works to beat this 64/200 with same idea.

I said 66 wins out of 200 results, not 64.

Indeed, it's rare because there is no worse!

But the solution is not in changing my progression, there isn't better progression to handle such negative outcomes.

Let's take a step further and establish some intervals every 100 outcomes...

From 25 wins out of 100 results we are arriving on the next interval of 66 wins out of 200 outcomes.
Let's assume that the first 100 and the next 100 are from the same session, 25/100 is 25% while 66/200 is 33%.

As you see from the first checkpoint to the next there is an increasement of 8% (33-25=8).
We could expect a similar increasement (8%) within the next set of 100 results which means approximately 40% of 300 outcomes or 120 wins VS 180 losses.

It's becoming apparently clear that regression towards the mean takes place after extreme deviations, so by expanding the event's horizon we're moving closer towards the mean and in return help us to recover smoothly.

This is where the solution lays and could be applicable in practical terms (within limits of time and money)

Quote from: soxfan on March 20, 2016, 05:44:00 PM
Do those w/l result represent roulettes dozen or even chance, hey hey?

Even Chances, but not so even after all!:-)