Quote from: Lungyeh on May 06, 2018, 03:58:15 AM
Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

I've quoted Mike's post, not yours.
By the way, I'm not interested in 4 legs gamble because there are more parameters out of the punter's reach, beyond the gambler's control rather than Baccarat.
From my perspective, Baccarat cannot become any simpler, it's the simplest of all gambling forms and simple is good for application of theories.

Quote from: Mike on April 29, 2018, 12:59:13 PM
Lungyeh,

If you mean staying disciplined then of course it's important and necessary, but discipline alone is not sufficient to win. Neither is money management. Your bet selection must have an edge otherwise you're just relying on variance ( = "luck").

The mathematics isn't difficult. In a negative expectation game like Baccarat you don't get paid fairly when you win, therefore in order to make up for this you must win more hands than probability dictates. However, this can't be done in an essentially random game like baccarat where you can't predict what's going to come out next with any reliability. You certainly can't get an edge by looking at patterns and what's just happened because all patterns are equally likely and past hands don't influence future hands. If follows from this this that there are no "opportunities" to be had. A genuine opportunity can only arise if the probabilities of an event change in your favor and represent "value" (meaning that the probability of a win overcomes the unfair payout).

Since baccarat is like a coin flip in might be easier to understand the principle in those terms. Suppose we agree to play a game of "flip the coin". We take it in turns to call and when I win you pay me $1, but when you win I only pay you 95 cents. Since the probability of either H or T is 0.5, you can surely see that eventually you are going to lose money, UNLESS you can find a way to win more often than 50% of the time (in order to overcome the unfair payout).

How much better than 50% does your probability of winning need to be? If the probability of winning is 50% then your expectation looks like this:

probability of winning * win amount - probability of losing * loss amount

which is 0.5*$0.95 - 0.5*$1 = -$1/40 or 2.5 cents loss per game on average.

Now suppose your probability of winning is not 0.5 but "x". Your probability of losing must therefore be "(1 - x)". With a little algebra you can work out what "x" must be in order to do better than break even.

x*$0.95 - (1 - x)*$1 > 0

$0.95*x - $1 + $1*x > 0

$1.95*x > $1

x > $1/$1.95

x > 20/39 = 0.513

So your probability of winning needs to be at least 51.3% in order to overcome the unfair payout.
Can this be achieved? Actually in coin flipping there is good evidence that the side which shows can be controlled to a certain extent by the flipping technique and the "initial conditions" (the side which is up before you flip), but for casino games it's not so easy.

Unless you can find a way to increase your winning percentage you're just gambling, in which case all I can say is : good luck!

You are correct but only 50%, so why not be 100% smart rather than half-smart?!
What I mean is that you know well what's the HE, you can even present it with mathematical formulas to us and we're great-full since nobody was aware of it! 


What you seem to neglect due to ignorance or purpose, it doesn't really matter, is that HE is not the only force at work during the results' distribution process, randomness means deviations and deviations eclipse HE, period.


But in case you still don't get it I'm going to break it down in quarters for you;
Let's assume for the example's sake that after 1,000 outcomes player A bets constantly option 1 and player B bets constantly option 2, player A won 563 times and lost 437, meanwhile, player B won 413 times and lost 587.
Player A won 126 times more, hence the net profit cause of the deviation.
While player B lost 174 times more, thus the loss cause of the DEVIATION and NOT the HE.
Speaking about HE, the casino took the loss of 174 from player B and paid 126 to player A, the remaining casino profit was subject to ongoing expenses and taxation for running the business.


The aftermath is that if something could lose then something else could win, you cannot have one without the other, period.
HE is a reality, but one which DOES NOT prevent someone to be long term winner.
Besides, the HE is based on the expectation of that every event has, at some point, get near its probability.


I dare to make a step further and declare that if the whole HE theory is being established on the law of large numbers, then we can safely assume that along the course of a significant total of outcomes, their probability will be confirmed.
So what does this means?
It simply means that if the casino can be sure for their profit because they are paying less, this lesser profit has to be so much less in comparison with the frequency of wins in order to have a significant impact on the money wagered.
But money wagered and/or paid don't generate decisions/results, but decisions/selections can make money!


If we would expand our event's horizon from 1 session to many sessions as a whole, then we could follow the certainty of the law of large numbers.
Casinos EXPECT this mathematical theory to be confirmed sooner or later, otherwise the lesser payouts, what they call HE, would be rendered obsolete!
In the knowledge of that as a de facto expectation we could establish such Money Management which would overcome the HE when eventually the law of large numbers will be confirmed.
What kills the BankRolls are NOT the HE, but the variance and the shortsighted approaches which account for 99.99% of all cases.
HE could be considered just as taxation on profits, at the end we are paying for our own mistakes rather than something which is beyond everyone's grasp!


The sophisticated money management should be scaled 1 to 1,000 bets/outcomes, it will not attempt to predict in the short term, but to capitalize on the long term!

Quote from: alrelax on May 04, 2018, 06:21:32 PM
Asym,

Something I wrote elsewhere on the board:
" allowing other players to Influence you. however works both ways and I've had some of my largest wins with camaraderie and unofficial Partnerships where we followed each other at the table and we made consistent wins and avoided losses But be forewarned that easily backfires and causes ill will and a fast decent to losing a buy in as well."

So you are admitting that your greatest profit was merely plain luck, your "camaraderie" and "unofficial partnerships" don't prove a successful strategy but more like wherever the wind blows I lean...it means NOTHING to me!


How could someone perceive seriously what you are saying, you know, other gamblers, like yourself, don't have a tag on their forehead which says "loser, bet against me", it's your fallacious perceptions and delusions of what is proper betting, nothing more than that.


@ ABG,
As long as you are focusing on "trees" and NOT the "forest" you'll be doomed to lose sooner or later.
Try to see the greater picture, oh yes, there's one if you try to perceive it...!
Streaks here, chops there, isolated or not...all of these won't help you because the fall under the mainstream probability which its bottom line is HE, period.
Instead try to realize what happens from 1 shoe to the next, what's the difference between 1 set of 40 to 50 results to the next one...!
Try to see a bit further than chops and streaks.

By referring you could earn from 40% up to 50% out of the total losses of the ones you register under your name/account.
This works on monthly basis, this is the most usual plan, you might have heard it as: "bring your friend".
However, it's not the only plan, they could pay a fixed amount per registration and deposit but because of a lot of deposits without wagering, or wagering with very limited loss (betting Black & Red simultaneously or betting 37 numbers on the same time), they have withdraw these kind of bonuses and fixed payments per registration/deposit.
Almost all of the on-line casinos/bookmakers are working with the 40 to 50% from total loss, so I've grabbed such opportunity, I've introduced myself as referral and client on the same time!
Therefore I won when I won and got half of my total losses back when I lost, all in all a win-win situation!!
When you live by the scam then you will die by the scam...effectively reversing their weapons against them!
  Cheers!

@ Mathemagecian,


No, I've not and after what you reported I wouldn't.
If you have 1 up to 4 available options regarding on-line casinos, with fast and reliable payments, then this is all you need.
Why to constantly seek for new ones when you have them already?
Finding reputable and reliable casinos perhaps is more useful for newbies on the on-line casinos field, but only for them and they will eventually be no longer newbies after a few weeks, so what's the point of bothering with new on-line casinos?!
Do we have to bother every single time a new on-line casino pops up out of the blue?!
Don't think so, that's not the point, it never was, except if you are one of those who are looking to make a buck with the misfortunes of others by introducing referrals.
Those referrals have their interest in side with the casinos and against us, they also are spamming the web with recycled garbage and they call it marketing campaign! 
Such activity has made real useful and free information hard to find because they've buried it with a ton of junk.

Quote from: alrelax on May 01, 2018, 04:53:42 PM
How much are candy bars there in the UK?  Most here are $1.39 to $1.99 but occasional at one of the bigger markets we can buy them for right at .89 but only sometimes.  Not gas stations or c-stores.

A dollar gets a nickel's worth...!

Quote from: Mathemagician on April 29, 2018, 10:48:22 AM
Superior Casino now inform me that "Our Payouts Department does not work during the weekend. "
I bet you can pay in though !

Meanwhile, nobody on this forum has confirmed  that they have managed to withdraw more money than they put in.

You mean to the particular casino or in general?

And how about the frenzy about digital currencies?
It's a baloney for me, 1 day you may have a certain amount on the monitor of your PC and the next nothing...all an illusion and as sudden it has appeared it will sudden disappear!
But don't listen to me, the experienced financial consultant with offices at Long Island NY and Henderson NV, corporations with Swiss and Cypriot financial institutions, listen to your heart instead!

You are right my friend, the same happened to me on other cases...
I've received that promotional email too, but for me was on the top of those 2 casinos you've mentioned, "mr Green casino" too.
When I've attempted to register an account with "mr Green" I saw that players from Greece are not allowed to open account and play.
I've ignored the other 2, but since there were rumors about the reputation and variety of "mr Green" games I've decided to give it a try, but it has been proved as waste of time.

I'm puzzled by your attitude, first you provide sufficient clues to attract some interest and then you bluntly refuse to incorporate any further! 
However, I respect your indisputable right to decline any additional exposure, but why did you initiate it on the first place?
If I was something like a troll I'd claim that you are playing the secret squirrel game...but I don't!
One thing is for sure, what you are up to might be interesting but cannot be considered as proven (not even to you and your colleague), thus why the secrecy for something which might be proved baloney(as 99.9% of all cases in long term basis)?
More minds accomplish more and faster than fewer, just think about it.
Besides, doesn't it what such forum's purpose suppose to serve?
To share, collaborate and progress together?

Quote from: esoito on April 16, 2018, 11:25:28 PM
Just to clarify:

I'm not talking about betting on the numbers 3,  6 and 9 per se.

Our research is aimed at several number combinations we have identified that involve underlying patterns of 3 or 6 or 9, or even all three.

These are:

* various number combinations which are based on number 3

* various number combinations which are based on number 6

* various number combinations which are based on number 9

and

* how they relate to specific times of appearance, which are also based on 3, 6,  9


Why 3 and 6 and 9?  Because they are the specific numbers identified by Tesla.

More than enough work there to keep me from playing on the road for quite a while! Especially as my time and energy is limited by other commitments.


But your query could perhaps open up ideas for others to follow.

I presume that you are not talking about the finals, for example when you say numbers related to 3 you mean 3, 12, 21 and 30 OR 3, 13, 23 and 33, which of these groups??
The first is related numerologicaly while the second group is related according to finals.
My opinion is that since you are following Nicola Tesla clues you are not betting finals.
There could be a number of ways to combine them, for example if we would count them as group and not individually then there would be too many combinations to take under consideration, for example the numbers 4, 11, 23, 25 could be considered as 9 group even are not related directly with any of the 3,6,9 properties.
That's because 4+11+23+25=63 and 6+3=9
If you are combining in such way then all numbers could be related with 3,6,9 properties, but I think you are not doing this because you wouldn't know what to bet since all would fit.


From the other hand, if you consider each number strictly related to properties of 3,6 and 9 groups then you would discard 25 numbers including 0, that's because group 3 is related directly with 3,12,21 and 30, group 6 is directly related with 6,15,24 and 33, group 9 is directly related with numbers 9,18,27 and 36.


Both approaches seem flawed on first sight but for different reasons.
By timing your selection you probably mean to bet only every 3 spins since 3,6,9 are all multiples of 3, yet that doesn't equate necessarily that you will bet every third spin because your criteria don't allow frequent betting.


Please confirm and/or decline where appropriate, thank you.

Quote from: greenguy on April 16, 2018, 12:31:54 PM
Not knowing what it is that you are applying to the 3.6.9, once it does go through the program you've yet to write, would it be possible to also test other number groups for comparison? Initially 2.5.8, and 1.4.7, and for a complete study, every 3 number combination from 1 through 9?

It would be very interesting to see if the grouping 3.6.9 outperformed all other groupings.

I'm interested about it too, Max I'd appreciated your feedback, thanks.

I believe there are much more than meet the eye and we should try to keep an open mind.
Reality is only limited by what we know (or think we know).

Thank you Max for sharing something so interesting (I rarely thank anyone for sharing as I rarely see appreciation from others for my efforts).


Just a couple of questions, I assume you had good results but for how long, are the results sufficient in order to prove something?


Does it have to do with numerology?

I think the best EC bet is: BRB = Be Right Back!
The only combination which kills it is the RBR = aRe Both Right!
Wow, such a discovery!