This is how the LW-Registry can look like when you use a positive progression.

WL
WL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWL
WWWWWWWL
WL
WWWWWL
WWWL
WWWWWWWWWWL
LWWWWL
WWL
WL
LLL
WL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WWL
LLWWL
LWL
WWWWWL
LLWWL
LLWL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWWWWWL
LWL
LLWL
WL
WL
LWL
WWWWL
WL
WL
WL
LLWWL
LWL
LLL
WWL
LLWL
WL
LLL
WWWL

I find it http://www.spielbank-wiesbaden.de/index.php?id=67&L=0%2F%2Findex.php%3Foption%3Dcom_event%27

Do you have a link to real spins for download, for example weisbaden.
I lost the link.

I would like to test this with real spins for real wheel.
I don't think random org is good for this kind of testing.

Cheers

@plolp
The mehtod using 8 clustering patterns of three (the original) and wait until one pattern fall into sleep, then you bet against it, the odds is 7 to 1.
I test with with regression up & pull



Here is the results where you aim to win once and continue for a strike or break even or accept a small loss.

2014 09 27
WL
WWWWWWWWL
LLW
WWWWWWL
2014 09 26
WWL
LW
LW
2014 09 25
WWL
WWWWWL
WWL
LLW
WWWWWWL
2014 09 24
LW
WL
WWWL
LLW
2014 09 23
LW
LW
WWL
WWWL
2014 09 22
WWL
LW
WL
LLL
LLW
2014 09 21
WL
LLL
WL
WWWL
LW
2014 09 20
WL
LW
WL
WL
2014 09 19
LW
LW
LW
WL
WL
2014 09 18
LLL
LLL
WWWL
WWL
2014 09 17
LLW
WL
WL

If you are going to test pattern breaker, then you might test this approch.
Use the staking plan 122 ... three attempts.

If you win any of the three bets you continue betting using regression.
If you win again you move forward with up & pull.
Just follow the last hitting bet to continue to strike.

1
0.5
1
1
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

Thanks for you help ND.
And for all others who read this topic i just want to say that the bet selection is not working, so it does not help with MM.

Cheers

Here is another alternative:

Don't tune or scoff out until you have digested the whole package, as one word may put you off, which is "Martingale", but hang on in here.

Lets throw in the sales pitch.

How to turn £75 into £5250 or $150 (for those across the ditch into over $10,000) for approx 28 hours of table action. Sound interesting?

YES, you do need a certain element of luck. Now we know you can't expect to be lucky all the time. You only need to be lucky for two hours. Yes TWO LOUSY HOURS from the on-set, you may not make it all the way, but it won't cost you anything either.

While people do not see eye to eye regarding bet selection, really it is a defensive mechanism, they need to convince themselves more than anybody else. In essence bet selection is a lottery. Each bet is a 50/50 bet, what happens after X is a lottery. No worries 'bout what you think, this can also suit your mindset.

Let's revisit a set of 4 column binary tables;

1---BBBB
2---PBBB
3---BPBB
4---PPBB
5---BBPB
6---PBPB
7---BPPB
8---PPPB
9---BBBP
10-PBBP
11-BPBP
12-PPBP
13-BBPP
14-PBPP
15-BPPP
16-PPPP

Note I have numbered all possible outcomes. Your aim using a 4 step martingale is to play 10 columns per day, less than ONE SHOE per day maximum and to avoid any 4 column loss.

For those that the progression Martingale leaves a bad taste, bear in mind, the total risk is the initial £75 or $150, if you can't afford to risk that amount, then read no further, or remind yourself of the 5 g's or 10k plus potential..

Your aim is to make 10 units per day (maybe 11 if you want to cater for the tax, or maybe you might choose to wear that small cost), not a dime more. Your aim is to repeat this for 7 days straight, remember, your exposure is minimum as you will not play more than 40 or 44 hands any one day. Any 4 column loss and you quit.

You need to avoid any 4 column loss for the first TWO DAYS ONLY, >> less than one shoe per day <<
Should you lose 4 hands on the bounce on the third day, you will still be in profit.

Should you manage to not lose for SEVEN days, on the second week, you double your unit size, should you lose when you double your unit size, you are still in profit. Again repeat the exercise for the next seven days.

NOTE* you can withstand two losses per week and still remain in profit, this excludes the first two days. Your odds of losing 4 bets in a row is less than 6%, which means your odds of winning a bet in any four bet sequence is just over 93%.

Should you manage to avoid any 4 column loss during the second week, again you double your unit value from £10 or $20, should you lose on day 15, you are still in profit. You just lost £300 but made £700 the previous week, how you determine the stake level for tomorrow is up to you, either drop down or press on, you can withstand 2 losing days per week.

If you have made it this far and only played 10 or 11 (due to tax) columns of 4 for the last 21 days and avoided defeat you double your betting amount for the final time.

NOTE* thus far this whole exercise has been SELF FUNDING.

Should you manage to avoid losing 4 in a row for the final week, you have just turned your initial stake of £75 into £5250 for approx 28 hours of table play, or $150 into over $10000, that's about 4 days work.

Week 1 - goal target £50 daily, weekly goal £350 - risk £75
Week 2 - goal target £100 daily, weekly goal £700 - risk £150
Week 3 - goal target £200 daily, weekly goal £1400 - risk £300
Week 4 - goal target £400 daily, weekly goal £2800 - risk £600

Maximum Total profit should you avoid 4L within 28 hours is £5250 less tax or for US based players over ten thousand dollars for a $150 stake. Other than the initial stake, IT IS SELF FUNDING.

Now take a deserved break and start again from the bottom. Does what you are currently playing carry a risk? Well so does this, so in this respect things are equal.

The risk is limited to £75 or $150, the rewards are greater than what you would ordinarily hope for given the amount of bankroll. If 100 players tried this, not all would be lucky, some would be. All that matters is surviving the first two days.

OK - the bet selection;

It really doesn't matter, either mathematically or logically.

If you believe in trending, then wait for one column of four and use the bet selection SAME. If you don't believe in trending maybe use the bet selection OPPOSITE. Random is probably the best.

If you don't care either way, maybe choose any one of the above 16 options and stick with it. Mathematically each sequence is suppose to occur once every 60 hands, be aware it doesn't always work out like this.

Maybe put the numbers I have associated with the 4 column options into a hat to determine your bet selection, it really doesn't matter. Perhaps omit the numbers 6 and 11 as these are the most common options for any 4 hand sequence. Don't lose sight of the total risk £75 or $150 and the potential reward.

Perhaps play each sequence in numerical order, that is bet option 1 followed by option 2 then option 3 etc. Logically it doesn't make any difference.

Should you lose for example on your fourth column, then that is it for that day, come back tomorrow and restart. You need SEVEN clear days of 10 units profit before doubling your playing stake.

The risk is carried for the first two days only, after that it is >> SELF FUNDING.

You could increase the risk and odds of not losing, by using a 5 column approach. You now have a 96% chance of scoring a win, however you would need to adjust you daily win target to 20 units, and would be playing that a particular 5 hand sequence from 32 possible sequences doesn't hit you for 20 columns..

$150 into over 10 "large" for 4 days effort!!!!!


Should this approach fail inside of the first two day, you would need to win 15 times just to get back to even. Then win another 10 times to progress from first base.

If you had a bankroll greater than £75 or $150 you might want to use the balance to construct recovery option for the first two days only.

Say you lost 15 units before you make 10 units. You then use the rest of your bankroll to recoup then continue where you left off. Few ways to do this, either use another martingale on top (lots of risk), or double your playing stake and use a Labby to win say 8 units, or possibly a Fibonacci, again to win either 15 units or 8 units if you doubled your initial stake size.

Nothing stopping somebody from playing two sessions per day, then you might achieve your goal in two weeks. Give yourself a decent break in between sessions. Yes I have explored this and I have found associating a numeric value to each of the possible outcomes of a Binary chart, as outlined above playing them simply in order 1,2,3,4 etc. faired best [random versus random]. You are either going to win or lose, the initial stake is not that great.

If you decided to play the options sequentially, option 1 is BBBB, you need to decide if you will bet the same as BBBB or the opposite of BBBB, which of course would be would be PPPP, It all works out the same, you're playing with of 15/1 odds no matter what.


Yes IT WILL lose eventually, will you be at the table when it does? Your nemesis has to catch you when you are playing, one of the reasons I state, play less than ONE SHOE per day.

Hence the reason make 10 units then bail. It can even lose when you are at the table, however it is the first 2 days which are crucial, after that, so long as you don't get back to back losing days you will be OK, again hence the reason to limit your exposure.

It really doesn't matter how you determine your bet selection. £5k or $10k for 28 hours graft, minimal risk "$150", cheaper than a few weeks worth of lottery tickets and better odds. 

Don't try and fast track this, by betting every hand, I would suggest that if anybody used other modes of play, that involves betting every hand, it wouldn't work. Losing 4 bets in a row when betting every hand is a whole lot easier than losing 4 bets for any given predetermined column sequence of bets.

The aim is to TRY and turn 75 quid or 150 bucks into £5 bricks or $10 large for 28 hours at the tables. As I stated above, it doesn't really matter if you lose the 3rd day, 2nd stage, 3rd or even the 4th stage, you are STILL IN PROFIT. You need to be lucky for the first two days only, otherwise it is SELF FUNDING. Lose 4 bets in a row and you are done for the day, better for your composure.

Survive for a month and restart. Want to decrease the odds of losing?, Increase the risk..


Disclaimer - Gambling can be a risky business, only gamble with what you can afford to lose.

I also think you should buy "Roulette Extreme" from UXsoftware.
http://www.uxsoftware.com/pages/index.html

This simulation software allow you to download real casino results and play with them (as you would in real casino).
And you have RNG.

With this simulation software you can test all you methods or strategys and see how they win or lose.
A great way to prepear your self before going to the casino and spend real money.

Why are we losing?

This is based upon my opinion.

My first point.
One thing i been thinking about is to cut loses short, that the game is about not losing to much.
Then the winnings will take care of the other side of the coin.

Lets say i have 100 and win target 20.
Then if i don't reach my 20 direct ,,, and are down 20 i should aim to break even and not push for +20 - then i hade to travel +40 to reach that goal.
If i am down -20 i only have to travel to 0 and bet same distance as from 0 to +20.
This means i can reach my win goal twice with the same probability and distance or betting.
I regard +20 or break even as winning as there is no loses and get there betting the same.

That is one way cut loses short.
After that if i would be down -40 is time to accept loses or maybe fight back to -20 and stop.
As the distance or traveling/betting would be the same as the first indication to reach win goal or break even.

This is my line of thinking why we lose at roulette, we need strict and clever rules when it comes to money management.
And this put me to my other point of view.

My secound point of view:
I think there is a false positive thinking i can win 20% (a low win-target) to win more regulary.
Sure it cut loses short but i don't end up winning in the long term.
Lets say i win five days in a row +20 +20 +20 +20 +20 then the sixth day i lose my 100 and i am back at 0.
I gave it all back.

I belive we need to generate more money when we play and set win-targets.
Using a money management method that allow us to push for more with out giving it all back.

For example if i win +20 +35 +40 +25 +10 during five days and bust at the sixth day with 100,,, then i still have +30.
Because my win-target was 20% but i push for more and some time succed or hit saftey net.
The only method that allow for this is John Patrick and Brett Mortons Money Management methods.
I still read and learn from that and think that is very important to cut loses short.

I call this the 20/100 flaw that we have to overcome.

My third point.

Sometime i ask my self that we all develop ways to play roulette in the wrong way.
For example when you read gambling forums - then the most common thing you see is one bet selection and one progression - no more or less.
We know that will not work and still all continue in the same way.

My point is that we should start from the Money Management rules first.
For example i sett a win-target of 40 and that would make me happy.
Then i know what makes me happy and feel good to go home, the reason why i gamble.
Now the question comes what i am prepeared to risk to win 40
Lets say 200.

Here it comes, i have 200 and if the minimum bet on the table is 10 i only get 20 bets flat betting and less using a progression.
Now the Money Management tell me the rules and limits i have to deal with, i can not use any kind of sloppy method.
The staking plan has limits and same goes for bet selection.
So i can not just create a mehtod with a 12 progression.

No one start from this end when developing methods.

For exampe you would play even money bets.

200 Loss-Limit
10   Bottom-Line-Target
40   Happy-Point
60   Gold-Top
??    Jackpot

Table minimum might be 10, then you get a small spread of units, around 20 units and that is not easy if you going to aim to win 20%.
But you can still play even money bets with tables with high minimum, you just play three lines with regualar chips.
So if minimum is 2 for stratight up number and you cover three lines, then you only have to place 6 and that is allmost half of 10.
Now you have around 40 unit spread and you might find it more easy to develop a staking plan with your bet selection.
(playing 3 lines is the same thing as playing high/low)

Is not so strange and the best thing you can do is to play for fun.
I am pretty sure you can get higher strike ratio and win more.

First mentaly try to win two session out of three and go home.
Not staying to long in the casino and not try to win back loses on a bad night.

Overall that will make you feel better.

I also think you should try to use small win targets and push when you are on a good strike.
Brett Mortons Money Management is perfect.

Two questions.

What amount makes you happy to go home with after visiting the casino.
How much are you prepeared to risk to win that amount of money.

- - - - - - - - - -

This is the best solution i find regarding this topic - Brett Mortons Money Management Method - from the book "Playing to win".

I find Brett Morton's "Fund Management" being very clever.
Does not just sett a limit for stop loss with win goal - it also show when to push for jackpot (push for more).
It also has built in safety net that catch before it is to late (avoid to lose it all back).

With all the necessary componets to define a present session.
When to start when to quit when to push or be catch by a safety net before its to late.

PROGRESS UP THE LADDER - PLAY AND PUSH OR FALL INTO SAFETY NETS



Now what amount make me happy - i would say for example 50 Euro, that would feel ok or great.
So that should be my Happy-Point,,, the first win-target.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

This is how Brett Morton does it.
But nothing prevent us to set higher loss-limit and lower Happy-Point.

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL (bottom line target) 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

That would mean i would have 40 to fight with to reach my secound win-target (Gold-Top).
And if i would lose it all back, then i would stop with +10 as my safety net (Bottom-Line-Target).

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i win and don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits (that would be 20).
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Brett Morton say that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
But he also say he stop playing many times before he reach first win-target.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target.

So when you walk into the casino or at home you make up your money management plan.

Loss-Limit
Bottom-Line-Target
Happy-Point
Gold-Top
Jackpot

Now you can look at the image again and you will understand.


 

Thanks ND ...

Well i can still not rap my mind around the money management.
I understand that i have a loss limit for two reasons.

The first one is to prevent me from losing it all.
And the other will make me not go home with a empty wallet.

But there is something wrong with the %

200 Session Money
100 Loss-Limit
40 Win-Target

In reality i will only have 100 to play with, my action money for the session.
But my % is based upon my Session Money 200 or 40%.
That has to be wrong.

So should i build my Win-Target based upon my Loss-Limit.

400 Session Money
200 Loss-Limit
40 Win-Target

Then my 20% Win-Target is based upon my Loss-Limt 200.

Quote from: NathanDetroit on November 03, 2014, 10:04:35 PM
Sputnik,

Did you commence with the up and pull methid exactly  at the point suggested by  John Patrick namely L-L-W>>> commence Up and Pull.


It`s a subtle way to get into the up and pull. \


NOT for  roulette EC. . This method is designed for Baccarat only.

For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.






ND

PART 1
-------------
Hello i read JPs baccarat book and find a method.

The staking is 122
If you win one of the two first bets you continue with regression up & pull

1
0.5
1
1
1.5
2.0
2.5

If the last bet of the 122 wins you accept a small loss
I think that is how he describe it at page 165

-----------
PART 2
-----------

But i don't understand the money management.

200 Session money
100 Loss limit
40 Win target

That is 20% win target of 200 session money.
But i only allow to play with 100 that is my loss limit.
So if my win goal is 40 then that is 40% of 100.

---------
PART 3
---------

The good news is that i find a working bet selection for this method.

I change the method, but keep the selection after reading John Patricks baccarat book.
I get very good result playing this method.
I play regression up and pull.

-

RTM = Regression towards the mean - does it exist?
I will answear that!
This topic is about the truth and nothing else.

So how does it look like to catch strikes and how is it done?
I will answear that!

But first i need to build a playing model based upon the principals above.

1) Window of 14 singles contra 2 series of three is 3.0 STD.
This mean that the random flows bell curve hit 3.0 STD.

I can bet against a window of events will hit 3.0 STD.
I can cut the numbers into half.

For example so can i have 7 singles and 1 series of three.
That would be 1.5 STD and from that moment i start my observations.
This mean i will be at least 1.5 STD on the bell curve.

This is how i would explain the bet selection.
Then the imbalance can continue to grow stronger and i would then continue to observe - it could hit 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 STD and so on.
Then the imbalance can stop growing and i will continue to observe.
Then the imbalance can start to go the other direction and i attack to ride the wave of regression towards the mean.

2) I will attack in two different ways to catch regression towards the mean.
You can call it march or algorithm.

a) I will bet after the sequense start to show regression and try to ride the first present series of three that appears in that situation.
If i loss i will attack the next series of two that appears present in that situation.
If i loss i will attack again the next series of two that appears present in that situation.

b) I will bet after the sequense start to show regression and try to ride the first present series of three that appears in that situation.
If i loss i will attack after a virtual win that appears present.
If i loss again i will attack after a virtual win that appears present.

This way you can make up your own opinion.
Does the result look like any other results playing even money bets or is there a slight difference.

Simple,,,
If you understand it all from scratch.
I don't think every one know that singles and series of three cancel each other out when you aim for strikes.