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Messages - Sputnik

#392
 
Here is the RX code ...
    system "World's Best and Safest Roulette system Ver 2"
{
*************************************
*         System by Zac2170         *
*         on the VIP Lounge         *
*************************************
         Rx-ed by Sp1N-D1zZy
-------------------------------------
           00-c0mpatible
-------------------------------------
Bet on Low and 3rd Dozen simultaneously with the following progression:

3/2, 9/6, 33/22, 74/36, 240/160, 600/400

On a loss, move up one in progression AND switch betting layout to
opposite of current layout. (If Low and 3rd Dozen, change to High and 1st Dozen.)

On a win, switch layouts back to original. If at 3/2, start again from scratch.
If at 9/6, wait for 2 wins in a row before starting again from scratch.
If at 33/22, again wait for 2 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 74/36, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 240/160, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 600/400, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
-------------------------------------
}
method "main"
begin
while starting new session
    begin
    call "Init"
    end
if net > 0
    begin
    copy list [low] record"Even"layout
    copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    if record"Even"data index = 2 or record"Even"data index = 3
        begin
        add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
        if record"Loss Progression"data = 2
            begin
            put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
            put 1 record"Even"data index
            put 1 record"Dozen"data index
            end
        end
    if record"Even"data index = 4 or record"Even"data index = 5
    or record"Even"data index = 6
        begin
        add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
        if record"Loss Progression"data = 3
            begin
            put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
            put 1 record"Even"data index
            put 1 record"Dozen"data index
            end
        end
    end
if net < 0
    begin
    put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
    add 1 record"Even"data index
    add 1 record"Dozen"data index
    call "Switch Layouts"
    if record"Even"data index > record"Even"data count
        begin
        put 1 record"Even"data index
        put 1 record"Dozen"data index
        copy list [low] record"Even"layout
        copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
        end
    end
call "Place Bets"
end

method "Place Bets"
begin
put 100% record"Even"data record"Even"layout
put 100% record"Dozen"data record"Dozen"layout
end

method "Switch Layouts"
begin
if list [low] pattern match record"Even"layout
    begin
    copy list [high] record"Even"layout
    copy list [1st Dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    end
    else
    begin
    copy list [low] record"Even"layout
    copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    end
end

method "Init"
begin
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
group
    begin
    display "World's Best and Safest Roulette System"
    display "------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
    input dropdown "Progression
    1:=4 Step
    2:=5 Step
    3:=6 Step" record"Progression Step"data
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 1
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 2
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74,240] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36,160] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 3
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74,240,600] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36,160,400] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
end
#393
 
I have seen a very long and aggressive progression using this method.
Don't remember how many step it covers.

I will search and see if i find the topic ...

Cheers
#394

This is only observation about regression towards the mean.
The length can be any.

The way i show you clustering three loses in a row, if there is no regression.
This is your LW-Registry ... LLWWLWLWW LLL LWLW LLL LWWLWLWW

You should experiment ...
#395

I ignore zero as it does not exist and continue the play.

Cheers
#396
Quote from: Mike on June 23, 2014, 08:43:46 AM
Hello Sputnik,


It seems you are betting that the next 10 spins won't match the previous 10 spins, is that right?


1 R
2 R
3 B
4 R
5 B
6 B
7 B
8 R
9 R
10 B


If the next spin, no. 11 is R then it matches spin 1 which is R, so you put a S label on it, but if spin 11 was B, you would put a O label there. But I don't understand how you are choosing your times to bet. Is it when the outcomes (S or O) are starting to balance out?


1 2 O1 2 O1 1 S2 1 O L    Why did you bet here?1 1 S W2 1 S - 1 1 S2 1 O2 1 O1 2 O L1 1 S W2 2 S

This is observation where the random flow can not fool you and has to show you the truth about regression towards the mean.
Tricky part is to capture it.

But lets say you have two same and one opposite in the beginning - then the two same make the STD to grow stronger and the opposite make the STD getting weaker and they can come in any combination.
That would be overrepresented events and underrepresented events.

The question is would you attack once, twice or three times ? and what happens next after that ...
I think you need to see what is common.
This is not a complete playing model, is more experimenting and observation about regression towards the mean.
#397
Quote from: Turner on June 22, 2014, 06:43:44 PM
Now I get it. Bravo.
Its beautiful. I see GrandMaster combinations in Chess    that are beautiful...almost art. This is is same.
Now I need to study other lengths and SDs
Well done. Well shared

Exactly now we can see the regression and how it behave with any length or STD.
For example:

2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1

1

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O regression
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O regression
1 1 S
2 1 O regression

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S no regression

The question is how to capture regression.
First observations show that is very common that you get at least two event as part of regression and more events.

When something is due we would never bet, so we can skip that part chasing for events.
But what is a indication of present change, one event show us present change, but would we attack after that?
For how many attempts should we attack, twice or three times in a row.

The chart of overrepresented and underrepresented events can give us a clue when to bet and when not to bet.
We have to observe how much stronger the STD grow and how it gets weaker.

#398
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 22, 2014, 03:35:42 PM
So what exactly do you expect to get from these gambling forums? ...

Well i don't read and expect i will learn from you and others like you, i just want to make that clear.
From 2007 to 2014 so have you only post empty claims with empty words, nonsense, this because you are a "hint guy".
This means you never give explanation with example with clear writing about methods, you just come with worthless hint's that helps no body.

Sometimes i find some interesting ideas, but that is rare.
I don't hang around for a holy grail or any kind of super method.
So i hang around to spend time with others who share same interest as me.
#399
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 22, 2014, 01:41:01 PM
I have no trouble guessing at 100% , until the first loss. What's truly funny to me is that you don't  know why. Perhaps someone will feel sorry for you and clue you in.

Yes you can guess but you can not out guess 50/50 - if you claim you can do - then you lie and no need to feel sorry for me :-)
#400
I am into this, math and probability and valid reason why to place bets.
You might call it mechanical, i call it tendency play.
We can not outguess 50/50 - that is why mechanical play is as good as any other existing method and tendency play fall between both.
#401
Quote from: Turner on June 21, 2014, 09:37:04 PM
Sputnik....


Thanks.


I have read it several times....and will read it again tomorrow. I have to admit that I am not fully getting it all.

Lets say you have 10 red outcomes, then regression towards the mean says that the next 10 outcomes will be less extreme.
But it does not say it will even out with blacks 100% ...
So if i have 10 reds and no regression, then i would have 20 reds and that my friend is extreme and rare.


10 reds is rare and extreme, but 10 reds has the same probability as any random sequence with 10 outcomes.
This is why i can pick any sequence of 10 random outcomes and have the expectation that the next 10 random outcomes will not be the same 10 random outcomes.
And if i would see 10 same result, well then i would not placed any bets, as you only place bets when there is regression present or indication for present change.

That way i can see how regression towards the mean behave in the real world with real results with quick samples.
For example i don't need to wait for 3.0 STD window.

Now the beauty of this is that i can pick any window i think is extreme or rare.
Here is one example where i play for regression towards the mean, where the window should hit 2.30 STD or below and not higher ... that is 11/1 or 12/0 and i lose.
I can only play when i see two events growing and one event being regression component, underrepresented.

This is how the LW-Registry look like:
LWLWWLWWWW LLL WWWLWWLLWWLWWLWLWWWWLLWWWWWWLWLWWLWW LLL LWWLW

If you want to name this method for something else then regression towards the mean, then you can call it variance tracking.


2
2
1
1
1
1

-

1 2 O
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 1 O L
1 1 S W
2 1 S

-

1 1 S
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 2 O L
1 1 S W
2 2 S

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S W
2 1 O
2 2 S

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O L
2 2 S W
1 2 O

-

1 2 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 2 O W
1 2 O
1 1 S

-

1 1 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
2 1 O W
2 1 O
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 2 O W
2 2 S
2 2 S

-

2 1 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S L
2 2 S L
2 2 S L

-

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 2 O

-

2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
2 1 O W
1 2 O
2 1 O

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 2 O W
2 1 O
1 2 O

-

1 2 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 1 O W
2 2 S
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
2 1 O
1 2 O
1 2 O L
2 2 S W
1 2 O

-

1 1 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 1 O W
1 2 O
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O

-

2 1 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S L
1 1 S L
2 1 O W

-

2 2 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 2 O W
2 1 O
2 2 S

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
2 1 O

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O L
2 2 S W
2 2 S

-

2 2 S
2 1 O
1 2 O
2 2 S W
2 2 S
2 2 S

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S L
1 2 O W
1 2 O

-

1 2 O
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 2 O L
1 1 S W
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 2 O

-

1 1 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O W
1 1 S
1 1 S

-

1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 1 S W
2 1 O
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
2 1 O W
1 2 O
1 2 O

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S L
1 1 S L
2 1 O W

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
1 2 O

-

1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 1 O

-

1 1 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O W
2 1 O
2 2 S

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S W
2 2 S
1 2 O

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 1 O W
2 2 S
1 1 S

-

1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S W
1 1 S
1 1 S

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
1 2 O W
1 1 S
1 1 S

-

1 2 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 1 O L
1 1 S W
2 1 O

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
2 1 O
1 2 O L
1 1 S W
1 2 O

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
2 1 O W
1 1 S
1 1 S

-

2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
2 2 S L
2 1 O W
2 1 O

-

1 2 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S W
2 2 S
1 2 O

-

2 1 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S L
2 2 S L
1 1 S L

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O

-

2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
1 1 S L
2 1 O W
1 2 O

-

2 2 S
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 1 S W
1 2 O
2 1 O

-

2 2 S
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S L
2 1 O W
1 2 O

-

#402
 
I crack the random flow.
I come up with a solution where the random flow has to show you the truth.
No bet selections or triggers.

With this solution you can observe how regression towards the mean unfold with out any fuzzy explanation.

Read this twice:

Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event, though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy (and variant law of averages). Similarly, the law of large numbers states that in the long term, the average will tend towards the expected value, but makes no statement about individual trials. For example, following a run of 10 heads on a flip of a fair coin (a rare, extreme event), regression to the mean states that the next run of heads will likely be less than 10, while the law of large numbers states that in the long term, this event will likely average out, and the average fraction of heads will tend to 1/2. By contrast, the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now "due" for a run of tails, to balance out.

What does this means:
This means i can pick any random combination of 10 events and compare them with the next 10 random events.
The expectation should be that they will not be the same combination and there will be present change.
So i can use opposite and same to see if this is the truth.

2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1

- - -

2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O

- - -

1 2 S
2 1 S
2 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S

- - -

2 1 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 2 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
2 1 O 
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 1 S

- - -

2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
2 1 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
2 1 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S

- - -

What is the solution:

Lets assume you would use Ecart play and see windows of 3.0 STD as rare and extreme event.
Then for example 14 events vs 2 events is 3.0 STD.
That is a total of 16 events.

Then you can for example pick windows of 8 random trails following by 8 random trails and see regression towards the mean unfold.
Then when you get 2 events vs 3 events then the 3 events make the STD grow stronger and the 2 events is part of the regression toward the mean.
Now you can see what happens each time a window not grow stronger and hit 3.0 STD.
You do nothing then just observe the regression towards the mean.

2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1

- - -

2 S
2 S
1 O
1 O
1 S
1 S L
1 S L
1 S L 3.0 STD

- - -

2 S
2 S
1 S
2 O
1 S
2 O
2 O W 2.5 STD
1 S

- - -

2 S
1 O
1 S
1 O
1 S
1 O W 2.0 STD
1 O
1 S

- - -

1 O
1 S
1 S
2 O
2 O
1 S W 1.80 STD
2 O
1 S

- - -

2 O
1 S
2 O
2 S
2 S
2 O W 2.5 STD
2 S
1 S

- - -

2 S
1 S
1 O
1 O
2 S
1 O W 1.5 STD
1 O
2 O

- - -

2 S
2 O
1 S
1 S
1 O
1 S  L
1 S  L
1 O W 2.5 STD

- - -

2 S
1 O
2 O
2 O
1 S
1 S W 2.5 STD
2 O
2 O

- - -

2 S
1 S
2 S
2 S
2 O
1 S
1 O
1 O W 2.5 STD

- - -

3.0 STD No regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.0 STD Small regression
1.8 STD Medium regression
2.5 STD Small regression
1.5 STD Large regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression

Development and experimenting:

8 random trails following by 8 random trails is only one example and can be any number.
You can pick what ever you think is extreme and rare event.

Comparing with this method then following is true.
Indication for regression event is the underrepresented events.
Indication for the STD to grow is the overrepresented events.

So if you for example see one red and two black, then red will part of  future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination
So if you for example see two red and three black, then red will be part of future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination.

Window and probability:

You can pick smaller windows around 2.5 STD or larger window up to 6.0 STD.
10 reds has the same probability as 10 in any combination, that is why you can pick any events with any combination with any length using the random flow comparing random against random.

The March
You have to develop a march if you are going to attack several times for regression.


#403
Quote from: Mike on June 20, 2014, 07:56:17 AM
I voted YES, a winning system is impossible. I'm not sure what the difference is between "making consistent profits" and "a winning system". If you have achieved one then you have also achieved the other, have you not?


The tough questions are never answered. How can it be possible, in a game of independent trials, to know when a number or group of numbers is going to hit higher than expectation? No one is denying that any system will have short bursts of wins, the question is, how do you know when they are going to occur?


You cannot compare roulette played this way to horse racing or sports betting, because the latter are potentially beatable, but roulette systems as such are not, because the odds are fixed and the expectation is negative. No amount of skipping spins, manipulating stakes or following patterns will change that. So why is it always claimed that there is some kind of "loophole"?

But i would like to know for how long you can win?
I mean if i can pass 800.000 trails using a test with 12 step fibo and win.
Then in real life i would never have time playing 800.000 trails but i assume i would win.
Who know if the bad strike of 6 STD will hit me during my life time, is no way to tell.
So at the end of my life i quit playing and won, then i can say i had luck to win overall.
#404
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 20, 2014, 12:04:46 AM
.A system  no, a method yes.

System or method, same thing.
Guessing or feeling and mechanical system/method, same thing.
If you can not out guess 50/50 then is no better then mechanical methods/systems.
#405
Off-topic / Re: Betforum.cc
June 11, 2014, 11:46:44 AM

This is how i think what happen.

Stef run his forum from computer at home with internet connection.
Now he move from his house to a new house, then he need new internet connection and fix all things with his new house.

This is why there is a delay and you can not reach forum.

Cheers