I just want to mention that it exist different ways to use a march (indication for attack).
This above is just one example among others.

This is not a complete playing model, i just wanted to explain that there is a difference between regular play and tendency play.

Example.
Random org

2013 08 31

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W

2013 08 30

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
2 W

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 L
1 W

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2 W

2013 08 29

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 L
1 W

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
2 W

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1 L
2 W

2013 08 28

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1 W

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2 W

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2 L
1 W

2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1 W

2013 08 27

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W

2013 08 26

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2 W

Now i will try to explain the difference of tendency play and regular play.

Lets say i pick my benchmark using 6 reds or 6 blacks and set the limit to 2.5 STD.
That is 12 reds and 2 blacks or 12 blacks and 2 reds.

Notice the difference.

Regular play you would bet against 6 reds or 6 blacks after 6 of the kind has a show.
Then as noting is due to happen could it grow to 12 of the same and you lose it all.

With tendency play you would just observe and not play if it continue to hit with same color.
That is the first way that you avoid chasing for events.

Now lets say for example you get 6 reds and 1 black.
Then you would do nothing as reds could start hitting again and the STD would grow stronger and you would lose it all.
That is the second way that you avoid chasing for a win.

Now lets say you have 6 reds and 2 blacks, now you know that if 6 reds hit you will have 2.5 STD.
That is why this 2 blacks is a tendency or a +1 indication that there will be a change, so you bet once with out chasing.

Now if you lose then you might get red black red situation that would give a hovering value of 101.
That means that the STD did not grow stronger as it stop and hovering around zero value, so that is also one more bet with out chasing.

Now you have placed two bets based upon tendency play.
Where the STD don't get stronger, then regression toward the mean can hovering at zero point or getting weaker.
Both situation is a win.

what's left ...
You have one attack window of 6 events and you only play when there is a tendency towards correction.
So you build a march to catch does events.

This is how a short test looks like ...

W
W
LW
LW
W
W
W
LW
LW
LW
W
W
LW
W
W
W

That means if you play the regular way then you had hitting 16 series of 6 and 7 ...
That way you can compare tendency play towards regression towards the mean with regular play.
Also decide what kind of attack window you would use.

I don't make any one think any thing.
I just post my findings and we can disagree all day, it does not effect me.
You can see red being ahead and you can see singles be ahead, no difference, so i don't understand what you try to prove.
Each trail is independent and each window of imbalance is independent and the bell curve has no limit as nothing is due to happen.
So what else is there to know, still i argue that tendency play is better then play the common way.

I don't want to teach in public, just a wast of time.

9 singles and 1 series
9 series and 1 singles
9 reds and 1 black
9 blacks and 1 red
9 losses and 1 win
9 winnings and 1 loss

is the same thing, so what do you try to prove?

Turner situation is that he find a small window of imbalance with no tendency.
Lets assume he get one more series, then he has 5 events left to a 3.0 STD.

So it all depends on what benchmark he will use when it boils down to regression towards the mean.
What kind of STD benchmark and from that build a march for tendency play.

Then you have no tendency for a present change with 9 Singles and 1 series present so you just continue to observe with out placing any bets.

 
True.
People can choose chasing for events using red and black or you can use tendency play where you not chasing events.
Some people may say it is the same thing, but for me is a big difference.

I have seen small tendency grow to 3.5 and 4.5 STD where i only place two bets and if you would play the common way you would lose it all no matter what kind of staking plan you use.
That is a big difference knowing that nothing is due to happen.

If you are expert about the subject, then feel free to elaborate more in detail what you mean that there is no difference.
I have never reach 3.0 STD flat betting with any existing method, except Marigny using tendency play.

That people don't know is how regression towards the mean looks like with real play.
They play around pretending being experts.

 
Send you PM about the subject ...

Cheers

Everything has a element of gambling, that is for sure.
But Marigny and Markow use present states/waves and you can measuring them.

This is how the values looks like

1,13 STD
1,66 STD
1,41 STD
0,81 STD
2,32 STD
0,81 STD
0,81 STD
2,49 STD
1,41 STD

All won using tendency play after +1

Quote from: Turner on September 01, 2013, 08:48:26 PM

Ego.....Im researching and have now hit a crossroads.


In 2011....you said something very similar, but different.


I have to resolve the differences to further my study


you said


Series of two contra higher series.
The valuse for each event is as follows.
singles has the value of 0 
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
Series of seven has the value of 4
And so it continues ...

Here we skip singles and series of three as we aim to only capture longer series and the overrepresented events has to be series of two and the imbalance has to hit a bench mark of 3.0 STD before we can wait for the underrepresented events to show and try to gain at least +1 unit - using a specific march.

Yes as i mention there is different tactics ...
One way is to track them all during play ...
A hot tip is to only bet after +1 as indication of tendency toward the right path.
As you can see it has nothing to do with develop a march based upon FTL or any other ...
Tendency play for regression towards the mean or correction is a different ball game, but i don't expect every one to know that.

PM me if you want more information about the subject and i will help you.
I still have simulation softwares for some methods of this work by Marigny, i send them to you if you want them.
It never faild during my testing.


Turner i come up with other solutions for trending based upon math and probability.

It need some clever staking plan and testing, if you feel up to the task we can do it together.

I notice the random flow is like a ocean with waves.
So we can pick any benchmark of window of events.
Measuring any STD or Ecart window of events with imbalance.

It can be 1.5 STD window and then bet towards regression towards the mean.
It can be a 2.5 STD window and then bet towards regression toward the mean.
It can be a 3.5 STD
It can be a 4,5

I just want to show you that i develop a FTL Ecart play or Ecart trending based upon math and probability ...
Each attack sequense is three bets and this is how it looks like ...
You can play after around 1.5 or after around 2.5 ...
If you play after around at least 1.5 then that is the common LW-Registry that you see.
If you play after around at least 2.5 then its after three loses with the LW-Registry ...

31/8 Singles

LW
LLW
W
W
LW
W
LW
LLL at least 2.5 STD
LLW
W
W
W

31/8 Series

LW
W
W
W
LW
W
LLL at least 2,5 std
LW

30/8 Singles

LW
LLW
LW
LLL at least 2,5 std
W
W
W
LW
W
LW

30/8 Series

W
LW
W
LW
W
W
W
LW

29/8 Singles

W
W
W
W
W
W
LW
LW
LLW
W
LLW

29/8 Series

W
W
W
W
LW
W
LW

---

I just want to show this to you as this is like trending based upon math and probability.

It has nothing to do with if the trend continues and stop at any time like using red and black patterns the common way.

1. Singles has the value of 1 and Series has the value of 1.
They are equal and there is as many singles as there is series.

2. The bell curve has no limit.

3. We can pick any benchmark to follow.
We can pick a window of events starting from 0 1 2 3 STD and bet for regression towards the mean, correction.
The random flow comes with small, middel and large waves where singles and series chop and create imbalance.

4. The best way is to use tendency play, that means you only play after you have +1.
That means you never place a bet if you don't have present change of the oppisite happening.
This way you prevent to some extant not chasing for events.

Thanks for the PM ...

I think the short run is the same as the long run, so i assume this method will end up with common progression like all other methods.

Ok i missunderstand John Patrick, he wrote bankroll size comparing to unit size.

So if not increase i should aim to win two session out of three.
But this don't add up.

Each attack aim to win +1 unit, so if i win two attacks or session out of three i am +2 units, but if i lose one session or one attack i am down -5 units.
Lets take a look at the winning and losing sequence ...

WW +2
LWW -3
WLW -3
LWLL -14
LWLW -8
LL -10

This don't add up as John Patrick say i should aim for a small % as win goal, so using 122 method i assume +1 unit.
But in the same time i should win more as two winning sessions should overcome one losing session.

Assume i would aim for +3 units as win goal, to high win goal, but just to illustrate one example.

WW +6
LWW +1
WLW +1
LWLL -13
LWLW -4
LL -10

Still it does not add up.
I need to wise up and understand this session managment with win goal and loss limit.

I can not wrap my mind around it.
Maybe it does not working applying the methodology with 122 method.

I mean i have at some point to capitalize when playing.
Should i just aim to play 122 method non-stop with out session management and win goal and loss limit.

+81 units
-55 units
= +26 units

This is the result of 6 days with 8 hours play.
The thing is that this is non-stop result.

One day you can be ahead +7 units before a loss show and i feel i should have quit long time before that winning over 100% ...
Then you more you play it tend to even out ,,, even if i can stay ahead after 50 session played.

So there has to be some kind of methodology with session management and win goal and loss limit using the 122 method.
Not just bankroll size comparing to unit size.

Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on September 01, 2013, 10:28:10 AM
From what I understand about slots you have basically two kinds:

1.) High Variance-usually have the big bonus rounds/jackpots...
but will gobble many coins first.  (Enough to wipe out most people)

2.) Low Variance-payout more frequently, but smaller wins...

Yes that is the machine i aim to target, low variance-payout with more frequently, but smaller wins.
Can we list does machines.
Hmm i am still waiting for John Patricks book.

Lets pick a playing model first based upon math and probability.

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
Series of eight has the value of 6
And so it continues ...

Now singles and series of three has a 50/50 situation with the value of 1 each.
Assume now you get a window of event with imbalance where singles only show with just one or two series of three.
Lets say you get a window of 14 singles and 2 series of three.
That is a STD or Ecart of 3.0 and a very strong imbalance.

Now the law independence dictate that you have a window of 3.0 STD in this universe.
Is like a vacuum pressure.
Or you isolate a strong imbalance occurring with 20 to 25 trail window.

Now i can tell you what will happen in the future with 99.9 % probability certainty.
For the next 25, 50, 100, 150, 200 trails you will get larger series to appear.
Series of four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and so on.

All you have to do is to develop a march to catch does events or series.
I would recommend tendency play where you only play when a larger series has a show and not before that.

This is just one among many different methods using the law of series.
It exist many different methods.

I would recommend this for team play and long term play.

I reach +50 sessions and moving from 122 to 244 and now aim to win 75 sessions ...
If i reach one step more i will start playing this method with real money.

A real boring and slow even money method, but a true grinding and working method.
I will start with 6 Euro minimum table.

Turner you can build a march that capture some events using the observation of the law of series.
Here is one concrete example.

Lets say you have a series of 4 red or 4 black in a row.

R
R
R
R

Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.

RR
RR
RR
RR

Now you can see that you got one clustering patterns with two outcomes 4 times in a row.
But then have 4 possibilities or equilibrium  RR RB BB BR ...

That is one way to see it.
Or you could say that you got one series of 8 reds.
All thinkable combinations exist.

Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.

RRB
RRB
RRB
RRB

Now you get 4 clustering patterns of the same out of 8 possibility/combinations ,,, pretty rare ,,, but it happens ....

So it continues with no end using equilibrium ...
So lets say we would create a march to bet against series of 4 and betting against does clustering patterns.
Then it would look like this.

You see red bet opposite for three times.
When you lose three times in a row, then wait for a new outcome and then bet opposite again for three times.
Repeat the formula as many times you want depending on what kind of staking plan you use.

Optional is to bet once only for each sequential attack.

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1

So this is how it looks like to catch singles, series of two and series of three using one simple march ...

2
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
2 L

2
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L 
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
1 L